GCC Daily Market Update - 28 April

Transcription

1. April 28 , 2020 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) MSCI GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,878.5 24,133.8 8,837.7 5,846.8 10,660.0 4,505.3 101,267.4 19,783.2 24,280.1 2,815.5 31,743.1 41.7 358.5 51.1 94.6 323.9 111.9 2,508.4 521.2 448.8 7.0 415.9 1.5 1.5 0.6 1.6 3.1 2.6 2.5 2.7 1.9 0.2 1.3 11.4 10.1 13.1 3.1 7.3 2.5 13.0 4.6 2.9 2.4 7.7 (10.9) (15.4) 1.2 (22.5) (19.5) (24.6) (11.5) (16.4) (13.9) (7.7) (23.1) 8,531.3 6,827.8 4,170.1 1,986.1 4,790.1 3,524.5 1,308.8 448.0 3,957.8 18.2 (10.9) (11.8) 29.4 66.9 11.2 6.6 0.2 56.1 0.2 (0.2) (0.3) 1.5 1.4 0.3 0.5 0.1 1.4 3.9 5.0 11.7 12.1 (0.7) 2.2 (3.1) 4.2 10.8 (18.2) (18.6) (17.8) (28.2) (23.8) (11.5) (18.7) (21.4) (8.0) 20.0 12.8 1.8 1,711.9 235.0 (1.5) (6.8) (4.2) (24.6) 0.1 4.2 (11.6) (0.7) 1.3 0.6 (16.1) (45.7) 13.1 8.1 5.2 (71.1) (81.8) (15.3) 12.4 (16.2) Global Global markets inched higher yesterday, after the Bank of Japan launched a new stimulus program. All US benchmarks ended lower, as investors focused on the reopening of several US states. However, gains remained limited, as investors looked forward to the earnings update from domestic companies. The S&P 500 index climbed 1.5%, on the back of gains in Financial and Real Estate shares. The Stoxx Europe 600 index increased 1.8% to settle at 335.4, as after several European nations were set to reopen the economies following the lockdown. Automobile shares reported notable gains. In Asia, the Nikkei index advanced by about 2%, following the central bank’s announcement. Real Estate and Paper shares reported strong gains. The Hang Seng index increased 0.3%, amid speculations coronavirus cases are peaking across the world. GCC Most GCC markets ended higher yesterday. Dubai’s benchmark outperformed its peer indices, amidst gains in Banking and Insurance shares. Abu Dhabi’s benchmark, on the other hand, fell 0.3%. First Abu Dhabi Bank decreased 3.5%, before reporting its Q1-20 earnings report. The Saudi Arabian benchmark declined 0.2%, tracking losses in oil prices. Bank Albilad slipped by 2.3%, as the stock traded ex-dividend. SABIC fell, as low oil prices weighed on the future prospects of the company’s product prices. Qatar The QE index increased 0.2% yesterday. Increased buying support on the part of domestic institutional investors supported the benchmark. Trade turnover increased while volumes declined on the bourse, with Real Estate and Consumer Goods sectors together accounting for more than 40% of the total trading volume. Out of 47 listed shares, 45 exchanged hands, 24 advanced, 15 declined and 6 remained unchanged. Source: Bloomberg QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW GCC Fundamentals Qatar All share P/E (x) P/B (x) 13.5 0.9 Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) 4.5 73.9 Qatar DSM Index 11,000 400.0 10,250 DSM 20 12.9 0.8 4.7 62.8 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 18.9 1.6 3.8 1,399.9 UAE (ADX) 12.0 1.1 5.9 42.6 UAE (DFM) 7.5 0.7 6.3 81.2 Kuwait (KSE) 13.5 1.1 4.5 116.9 Oman (MSM) 8.4 0.8 6.9 2.7 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 9.4 0.8 5.9 0.9 QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Qatari Investors Group Widam Food Co National Leasing Gulf Int’l Services Qatar National Cement Top Losers Qatar Industrial Manu Ezdan Holding Group Aamal Co Mazaya Qatar Real Est. Commercial Bank Close 1D Change Performance Price Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. (‘000) P/E TTM 15.1 10.2 23.0 53.5 15.7 1.3 5.7 0.6 1.3 3.4 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 5.6 5.0 3.9 2.4 2.2 (27.8) (16.1) (9.2) (25.6) (39.6) (45.8) 1,244.1 (3.9) 584.1 (24.3) 3,540.9 (15.9) 3,173.9 (49.1) 99.1 2.4 0.6 0.5 0.6 3.8 (0.1) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (2.8) (2.6) (1.8) (1.5) (1.0) (31.9) (0.7) (33.2) (18.1) (18.9) (37.8) (41.5) (42.2) (23.6) (24.1) Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 4.9 12.4 28,753.7 1,701.9 8,014.7 10.7 5,594.6 24.1 2,882.4 8.9 8,531.3 200.0 9,500 8,750 8,000 30/Jan 0.0 13/Feb 27/Feb 12/Mar Index Volume (mn) 26/Mar 9/Apr Index Value 23/Apr Closing Level 3,804.4 6,968.3 2,176.0 2,022.0 1,204.6 846.2 2,526.5 1D Change (%) (0.0) 0.0 0.5 (0.8) 0.9 1.5 1.8 Buy (%) 29.3 30.3 59.6 11.5 28.9 40.4 Sell (%) 38.5 16.6 55.1 12.1 32.8 44.9 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. April 28 , 2020 lowering of interest rate as well as judicious provisioning amid to face the COVID-19 situation. Total assets increased by 1.6% QoQ to AED 835.4bn (USD 227.4bn). (Source: Emirates News Agency) GLOBAL NEWS  The US has revised rule that impose new restrictions on exports to China, including on civil aircraft components and items related to semiconductors. The new rules will require US company licenses for selling certain items to military entities in China even if they are for civilian use. (Source: CNBC)  The US Fed widened its help for local governments, offering to purchase bonds of up to three years’ duration from counties and cities having less number of resident. (Source: Reuters)  The EU banks are expected to receive additional capital relief to help companies struggling in the coronavirus pandemic, without having to make loan provisions. The bloc’s financial services chief, Valdis Dombrovskis is likely to propose revision allowing banks to ease how they calculate their leverage ratio. (Source: Nasdaq)  The Chairman of Abu Dhabi-based cooling company, Tabreed said that he is projecting low double digit returns from the acquisition of 80.0% stake in Emaar Properties’ district cooling business purchased at a cost of USD 675.0mn in March-20. The deal is a promising investment considering that the cooling sector is not impacted by the Coronavirus pandemic. (Source: Arabian Business)  Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund, the Public Investment Fund (PIF) has announced that it has bought 12.3mn shares for USD 518.0mn accounting for a 5.7% stake in US-based Live Nation Entertainment Inc. (Source: Reuters)  Saudi Arabia-based multilateral development bank, Arab Petroleum Investments Corporation (APICORP) has hired Citi, Goldman Sachs and Standard Chartered to manage its potential dollar bond issue. The bond is expected to have a maturity of three or five years and could be launched in Q2-20. (Source: Reuters)  Saudi Arabia-based Riyad Bank announced plans to redeem its SAR 4.0bn (USD 1.1bn) sukuk due in 2025 which will be in full, at face value on 24th June-20. The sukuk had original maturity of 10 years, due on 24th June-25. (Source: Zawya)  According to Citigroup Inc, GCC nations are expected to look for asset sales to balance debt worth USD 50.0bn to support economies impacted by the coronavirus pandemic and the decline in crude prices. GCC borrowers have raised USD 47.0bn in 2020 approximately 50.0% which is from Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Abu Dhabi . (Source: Arabian Business) Saudi Arabia-based Arbah Capital launched a project worth USD 36.0mn in senior care facilities in the US, in partnership with US-based real estate developer, Madison Marquette and senior care company, Meridian Senior Living. The project comprise of premier Class A Senior Living community with 136 units in Florida. (Source: GDN Online)  UK-based real estate firm, Montague Property has announced plans to expand into the UAE through its real estate fund worth GBP 100.0mn (USD 124.4mn) to increase their portfolio reach globally. The company plans to open its first international office in the UAE later in 2020 after post-coronavirus crisis matured. (Source: Arabian Business) Oman witnessed 13.7% YoY increase in the total number of SMEs registered with the Public Authority for Small and Medium Enterprises Development (Riyada) in Q1-20 to 44,083, according to National Centre for Statistics and Information (NCSI). Muscat ranked first accounting for 33.7% of the total to 14,857 SMEs. (Source: Times of Oman)  Al Salam Bank-Bahrain (ASBB) sold portfolio of seven multifamily assets in the US for a total value of USD 182.5mn. (Source: GDN Online)  Kuwait’s local banks allocated KWD 2.0bn (USD 6.4bn) to the soft loan portfolio which is planned to be granted to SMEs, as well as companies and clients affected by the coronavirus pandemic. The SME loans will account for between 15.0% and 20.0% of the total. (Source: Zawya)  The UK Cabinet Office Minister, Michael Gove said that a deal on a post-Brexit relationship between the UK and the European Union can still be reached within the agreed time line. (Source: The New York Times)  India is considering a proposal to guarantee loans worth INR 3.0tn (USD 39.0bn) to small businesses as part of a plan to restart the economy which is impacted by a 40-day lockdown. Small businesses will be eligible to borrow extra 20.0% of their credit limit. (Source: The Economic Times) GCC NEWS    Dubai Economy has lowered the fee for instant licenses by more than 90.0% from AED 3,000.0 (USD 816.7) to AED 250.0 (USD 68.1) to lower the impact of coronavirus on the residents. The same fee will apply for renewal of the instant license. (Source: Zawya)  The Business Registration and Licensing sector in Dubai reported the issuance of 550 Instant Licences in Q1-20, of which 73.0% were Commercial and 27.0% were Professional. (Source: Emirates News Agency)     The Dubai Airport Freezone Authority (Dafza) has launched various economic incentive packages to support companies situated in the free zone amid COVID-19. These include postponing lease payments for up to 3-months and facilitating financial payments into easier monthly instalments. (Source: Trade Arabia) The Central Bank of the UAE has ordered to freeze the bank accounts of the founder of Dubai-based troubled NMC Healthcare’s founder, BR Shetty. The company has requested for its shares to be delisted from the London Stock Exchange after they were suspended two months ago. (Source: Reuters) Abu Dhabi has reported a 21.5% YoY increase in the total value of real estate transactions in Q1-20 to AED 19.2bn (USD 5.2bn), as per the Department of Municipalities and Transport (DMT). The value of these real estate transactions stood at AED 8.7bn (USD 2.4bn) comprising 3,613 transactions, while the value of mortgages surpassed AED 10.5bn (USD 2.9bn), involving 3,943 transactions. (Source: Trade Arabia) First Abu Dhabi Bank reported a 22.5% YoY decline in Q1-20 net profit to AED 2.4bn (USD 0.6bn), on account of lower revenue due to QATAR NEWS  Qatar retained its position as the top LNG exporter globally with exports of 77.8 mn tons in 2019, according to International Gas Union (IGU). Global LNG trade increased by 13.0% YoY to 354.73mn tons in 2019. Australia is the second largest exporter at 75.4mn tons. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar's trade surplus declined by 42.4% YoY and 43.7% MoM to QAR 7.6bn (USD 2.1bn) in March-20 due to the impact of the Coronavirus pandemic, as per Planning and Statistics Authority (PSA). Total exports declined by 30.1% YoY and 25.0% MoM to QAR 15.9bn (USD 4.4bn), while imports declined by 13.2% YoY to QAR 8.3bn (USD 2.3bn). (Source: Gulf Times)  Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding Company (MPHC) reported 82.7% YoY decline in Q1-20 net profit to QAR 57.1mn (USD 15.6mn). The revenue declined by 84.5% YoY to QAR 49.0mn (USD 13.5mn) due to decline in selling prices on account of challenging macroeconomic situation due to COVID-19. (Source: Gulf Times)  Baladna reported a net profit of QAR 39.7mn (USD 10.9mn) for the period ended 31st March-20. The company passed a resolution to distribute interim dividends of QAR 40.0mn (USD 10.9mn), equivalent to QAR 0.021 (USD 0.006) per share. (Source: Qatar Stock Exchange) 2
3. April 28 , 2020 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.0859 USD/QAR 3.6415 107.2500 EUR/QAR 3.9543 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.2461 JPY/QAR 0.0340 USD/CHF 0.9752 GBP/QAR 4.5377 USD/CAD 1.4034 CHF/QAR 3.7341 AUD/USD 0.6465 CAD/QAR 2.5948 NZD/USD 0.6047 AUD/QAR 2.3542 USD/INR 75.7425 INR/QAR 0.0481 USD/TRY 6.9861 TRY/QAR 0.5212 USD/ZAR 18.7980 ZAR/QAR 0.1937 USD/BRL 5.6525 BRL/QAR 0.6442 FX Commentary The USD inched lower against a basket of major currencies yesterday, with the dollar index settling 0.3% lower at 100.0. The dollar declined as, as several nations across the world chalked out plans to re-open their economies following the lockdown. The EUR increased against the USD, as Italy, which reported one of the highest coronavirus cases, was also planning to re-open its economy. S&P’s move to reaffirm Italy’s rating also supported the currency. The JPY strengthened against the USD, after the Bank of Japan increased its stimulus to support domestic companies to counter the effects of coronavirus. The CAD advanced against the USD, despite losses in oil prices, amidst increased demand for riskier assets. The AUD gained, amidst reports some of the states were set to re-open in the near term. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.06 0.16 0.44 0.89 0.94 (0.57) (0.51) (0.42) (0.19) (0.08) LIBOR EURIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year QAIBOR 1.07 1.12 1.17 1.23 1.37 SAIBOR NA 0.71 1.02 1.24 1.24 EIBOR 0.23 0.42 0.87 1.61 1.59 BMIBOR 0.65 0.90 1.27 1.57 1.95 KIBOR NA NA 1.50 1.75 2.28% 1.89% 0.41% 0.22% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 2.61% 2.97% 0.56% 0.66% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US Qatar 3.80% 1.26% 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 4.0% 2.51% 2.41% 2.34% 2.0% 0.38% 5.0% 3.8% 2.5% 1.3% 0.0% 2.25 Source: Bloomberg 2.40% Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 0.67% 0.56% 0.46% 2.72% 0.82% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Current 7 Yrs 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change US 27.0 9.7 Turkey 612.1 270.6 UK 39.0 27.3 Brazil 370.7 248.2 Germany 26.9 NA Egypt 667.8 340.5 France 45.4 NA Abu Dhabi 137.7 91.2 Italy 236.0 118.8 Bahrain 501.0 279.2 Greece 271.5 110.3 Dubai 324.2 191.7 Russia 184.2 107.2 Qatar 137.5 91.0 Japan 37.1 14.1 Saudi Arabia 176.8 105.8 Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event 9:45 France Consumer Confidence 15:30 US Wholesale Inventories MoM 16:00 US S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index 17:00 US Conf. Board Consumer Confidence 17:00 US Richmond Fed Manufact. Index Period Survey Apr 80 Prior 103 Mar P (0.40%) (0.70%) Feb -- 218.62 Apr 87 120 Apr -42 2 Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) NA NA NA 57.1 (79.7) (91.8) 97.9 2.0 40.1 24.5 (27.8) 20.6 Qatar Cinema & Film 1.3 (14.2) (34.9) 1.5 (53.3) 85.3 First Abu Dhabi Bank NA NA NA 2,408.3 (22.5) (21.8) Saudi Printing & Packaging NA NA NA (14.9) NA NA Al-Omaniya Financial Service NA NA NA 0.5 (43.3) (7.5) Mesaieed Petrochemical Qatar Industrial Manufacturing Dhofar Insurance NA NA NA 1.1 20.0 134.0 Majan Glass Company 2.7 (3.4) 1.9 (0.3) NA 41.7 Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. April 28 , 2020 rd QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS (As on 23 April 2020) Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing Qatar First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Baladna Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Investment Holding Industries Qatar Mesaieed QAMCO Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Alkhaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 4.8 5.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.9 6.1 7.8 0.0 3.5 5.3 3.5 4.5 4.0 0.0 7.0 4.7 5.0 4.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 5.6 6.0 4.8 7.5 0.0 0.0 6.1 3.9 0.2 5.3 4.4 5.9 9.0 5.1 2.8 7.5 7.4 0.0 6.6 5.8 7.4 0.0 0.0 5.5 3.0 4.0 5.0 4.2 4.2 4.3 5.8 4.7 4.3 P/B Ratio (x) 1.3 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.8 2.0 0.4 0.9 2.2 2.0 2.3 0.5 1.9 1.0 0.5 1.7 2.4 1.1 1.9 3.0 0.3 2.8 2.2 1.6 0.4 0.7 0.4 1.2 1.5 0.6 2.0 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.8 0.4 2.3 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.6 1.4 0.4 0.9 1.3 P/E Ratio (x) 10.6 7.8 (M) (ç) 7.9 (H) (ç) 7.1 12.7 13.1 (M) (ç) 11.7 13.1 10.9 16.4 11.0 (M) (ç) 6.5 21.7 18.2 24.8 14.3 (M) (ç) (M) (ç) 12.2 15.9 17.0 10.5 53.0 6.1 15.3 19.0 42.0 11.3 12.4 10.0 13.6 15.2 15.6 10.9 10.2 (M) (ç) 11.8 30.9 7.0 114.9 20.8 7.6 15.2 11.5 29.2 12.9 11.2 12.5 10.9 11.8 12.5 EPS (QR) 0.3 0.5 (M) (ç) 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 (M) (ç) 1.3 0.6 1.6 0.0 0.7 (M) (ç) 0.4 0.3 0.9 0.1 1.1 (M) (ç) (M) (ç) 0.4 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 (M) (ç) 0.5 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.3 BV/Share (QR) 2.5 4.4 0.7 3.0 2.4 1.7 1.9 1.4 1.0 6.9 4.0 7.3 1.0 4.1 1.0 5.7 3.6 7.2 2.3 8.5 0.3 1.0 1.9 6.5 3.4 1.3 1.9 1.0 5.7 1.2 1.0 7.4 2.2 3.4 4.5 2.3 2.1 2.2 2.6 5.8 2.5 3.1 5.1 1.2 1.1 3.1 1.8 7.2 1.1 3.7 3.1 1.7 12.7 3.5 2.9 Stock Price (QR) 3.1 3.9 0.5 1.9 1.8 1.3 3.7 0.6 0.9 15.1 8.0 17.0 0.5 1.0 2.9 6.0 17.0 2.5 16.0 0.8 0.3 5.3 14.2 0.5 1.2 0.4 6.5 1.8 0.6 14.7 1.2 2.5 3.3 1.8 1.1 2.0 2.1 5.7 2.7 0.7 0.6 0.9 6.2 1.0 4.8 2.4 5.2 - Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫ا س ت ثمار ال قاب ضة‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫قامكو‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above-mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4