GCC Daily Market Update - 27 February

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE February 27 , 2018 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,779.6 25,709.3 6,989.1 7,289.6 12,527.0 5,344.3 118,791.9 22,153.6 31,498.6 3,329.6 34,445.8 32.3 399.3 92.5 45.2 43.3 26.9 1,270.4 260.9 231.4 40.6 303.6 1.2 1.6 1.3 0.6 0.4 0.5 1.1 1.2 0.7 1.2 0.9 (1.6) (1.7) 0.6 (3.2) (5.0) (2.5) (0.6) (4.1) (4.2) (4.3) (4.2) 4.0 4.0 9.3 (5.2) (3.0) 0.6 3.0 (2.7) 5.3 0.7 1.1 8,992.6 7,471.9 4,593.3 3,306.5 6,756.5 4,985.3 1,370.7 1,647.8 3,744.1 (87.5) (21.7) 11.3 (0.0) NA 27.1 9.1 0.0 32.0 (1.0) (0.3) 0.3 (0.0) NA 0.6 0.7 0.0 0.9 (2.3) (2.3) (0.2) (2.6) 1.0 (0.3) 1.5 (1.0) (2.3) 5.5 3.4 4.4 (1.9) 5.4 (2.2) 2.9 3.0 3.1 67.5 63.9 2.6 1,330.7 319.8 0.2 0.4 0.0 2.5 (1.5) 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 (0.5) (2.3) (1.4) (10.3) (0.5) 0.1 0.8 5.6 (9.0) 1.8 (3.1) Global US equity markets opened the week on a positive note, amidst a stabilization in US Treasury bond yields. Gains in the equity market were supported by buying in Technology shares. The S&P 500 index rose 1.2%, led by gains in Financial and Industrial shares. The Stoxx Europe climbed 0.5% higher, reflecting risk-on mode amongst the investors following strength in the US stocks in earlier session. The UK benchmark rose 0.6%, following news that UK’s opposition party also supported the nation staying in the EU’s single market after Brexit. The Japanese benchmark advanced 1.2%, shrugging off the strength in JPY, as gains in Technology, Financials and Automobile stocks kept the index supported. The Chinese benchmark ended 1.2% higher, led by gains in Technology and Telecommunications shares. GCC Most GCC equity markets ended higher during yesterday’s trading session. In Dubai, GFH Financial climbed 8.3% on back of news that the CEO of Abu Dhabi Financial Group (ADFG), had been elected as chairman of the company’s board. The Saudi Arabian benchmark ended 0.3% lower, weighed by weakness in Banking stocks on concerns about Islamic tax liabilities. The index was also weighed by weakness in Insurance and Pharma stocks. The Kuwait’s market remained closed on account of a public holiday. Qatar The QE index ended 1.0% lower during yesterday’s trading session as selling pressure from gulf and foreign institutional investors weighed on the overall market performance. Banking & Financial Services, Industrials and Real Estate sectors together accounted for about 86% of the total trading volume. Qatar National Cement and Qatar Insurance ended lower, as both stocks traded ex-dividend. Out of the 45 companies listed, 42 exchanged hands, of which 33 declined, 8 advanced and 1 remained unchanged. Source: Bloomberg QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 13.6 1.3 4.7 65.8 DSM 20 14.0 1.3 4.6 51.6 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 16.6 1.7 3.2 720.3 UAE (ADX) 11.6 1.3 4.4 24.6 UAE (DFM) 11.6 1.2 5.3 63.3 Kuwait (KSE) 15.3 1.0 5.6 35.2 Oman (MSM) 12.1 1.0 5.2 3.7 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 9.2 0.8 5.7 1.1 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Qatar Navigation Medicare Group Qatar Intl Islamic Qatar Industrial Manu Qatari Investors Group Top Losers Al Ahli Bank Qatar National Cement Qatar Insurance Co Qatar Gas Transport Qatar National Bank Close Price 64.9 79.0 60.4 44.7 32.9 1.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 2.2 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.3 16.0 13.1 10.5 2.3 (10.1) (25.9) (0.5) (15.0) (8.6) (50.6) 8.5 128.9 124.5 19.9 110.7 23.4 27.7 11.0 10.3 16.2 32.0 63.2 41.3 17.2 123.0 (3.0) (5.2) (2.7) (0.6) (4.0) (8.6) (7.5) (6.2) (3.2) (3.1) (13.8) 0.5 (8.7) 6.8 (2.4) (4.3) (26.4) (35.7) (26.7) (20.9) 0.5 47.1 153.4 181.3 99.9 10.4 12.6 31.1 11.3 9.1 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. Qatar DSM Index 9,500 15.0 8,992.6 9,000 10.0 8,500 5.0 8,000 7,500 30/Nov 0.0 14/Dec 28/Dec 11/Jan Index Volume (mn) 25/Jan 8/Feb 22/Feb Index Value Closing Level 2,817.5 5,352.1 2,809.2 3,320.6 1,788.0 1,048.4 1,912.1 1D Change (%) (1.7) (0.7) (0.5) (2.0) (0.5) (0.6) (1.0) Buy (%) 36.3 35.0 71.3 9.5 19.2 28.7 Sell (%) 35.1 32.6 67.7 8.1 24.2 32.3 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE February 27 , 2018 GLOBAL NEWS   US new home sales decreased by 7.8% MoM to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 593,000 units in January-18. Out of the total, 67.0% of the home sale are under construction or yet to be build. (Source: Reuters) Federal Reserve Governor, Randal Quarles, stated that there remains some upside risk to the US economy, however, the future path of monetary policy depends on whether the potential capacity of the economy is also increased. (Source: Reuters)  St. Louis Fed President, James Bullard, stated that neutral US interest rate is unlikely to change very much over the next two years. He further added that 4 rate hikes in the year 2018 could have a negative impact on the economy’s growth. (Source: Market Watch)  European Central Bank’s President, Mario Draghi, stated that the slack in the Eurozone economy could be higher than expected which can slow down the rise of inflation on a temporary basis. (Source: CNBC)    European Central Bank’s Director, Benoit Coeure, stated that Europe’s financial industry should reach to a new benchmark interest rate, as confidence on current measures has been weakened by cases of manipulation and low liquidity. (Source: Reuters) UK’s gross mortgage lending increased by 9.7% YoY and 2.3% MoM to GBP 21.9bn in January-18. The country’s card spending increased by 5.8% YoY, while borrowing increased by 4.8% YoY during the same period. (Source: UK Finance) Bank of England’s Deputy Governor, Jon Cunliffe, stated that less than 20.0% of the assets managed in the UK are domiciled in the EU, while British firms manages around 10.0% of assets of funds worth USD 12.0tn is domiciled in the rest of the EU. (Source: Bloomberg) GCC NEWS  UAE based largest four banks, First Abu Dhabi Bank, Emirates NBD, Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank and Dubai Islamic Bank, have reported an 8.0% YoY and 2.0% QoQ increase in the total net profits to AED 7.3bn for Q4-17. They account for 62.0% of the UAE banking sector assets.  Arabia)  Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Health is planning to award construction contract for developing Phase 2 of King Faisal Medical City, which is worth SAR 1.1bn (USD 306.0mn), in March-18. (Source: Zawya)  Saudi Arabia’s General Authority of Civil Aviation has terminated the agreement which allowed to form a consortium of Singapore based Changi Airports International and Saudi Naval Support Company to manage and operate the new King Abdul Aziz International Airport in Jeddah. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Saudi Arabia based Arab National Bank has reported 6.0% YoY increase in its net profit to USD 807.0mn in FY-17, driven by balanced growth in various business segment and conservative risk management policy. (Source: Arab News)  The Central Bank of Oman announced to issue government development bonds amounting to OMR150 mn with a maturity of 10years and an annual coupon rate of 6.0%. (Source: Times of Oman)  Bahrain has awarded total number of 15 contracts worth BHD 143.4mn (USD 378.0mn) during January-18. Out of which 3 would cover the roads sector, 7 would cover the sanitary segment and 2 would cover the construction sector. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Bahrain based airline, Gulf Air, has revealed its five year expansion plan, which includes adding of 32 new Boeing and Airbus aircraft into its fleet and adding 8 new routes by 2023. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Egypt Kuwait Holding is planning to drill five wells worth USD 110.0mn during the year 2018. The company has completed drilling of two wells in Port Said, Egypt. (Source: Mubasher) QATAR NEWS  Dubai based Azizi Developments has announced that its Azizi Farishta Serviced Apartments project worth AED 255.0mn (USD 69.4mn) would be delivered by Q2-18. (Source: Trade Arabia) Qatar’s real GDP growth rate is expected to increase to 2.5% in 2018, 3.4% in 2019 and might decline to 3.3% in 2020, driven by increase in oil prices and investment in the long-term expansion of LNG production positively impacts growth, according to Qatar National Bank report. (Source: Gulf Times)  Dubai Airport is planning to close Dubai International Airport’s southern runway for 45 days period in 2019 in order to upgrade the design so to enhance safety, service and capacity levels. (Source: Trade Emir His Highness Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al Thani has issued a law, to strengthen the executive powers of the Communications Regulatory Authority. (Source: Qatar Tribune)  Qatar’s Minister of Foreign Trade and Investments stated that Equador is eyeing to receive investments from Qatar for their oil refinery project worth USD 10.0bn with a total capacity of 300,000 bpd. (Source: Qatar Tribune)  Qatar Electricity and Water Company’s Umm Al Houl Power Project worth USD 11.0bn would be operational by July-18, the company’s Chairman stated. The plant has a total capacity to meet 25.0% of the country’s total electricity and water demands. (Source: The Peninsula) (Source: Zawya)   Arabia)  Ras Al Khaimah Chamber has been awarded an ISO 27001 Information Security Management Systems Certificate for information security management best practices in several data driven sectors. (Source: Trade Dubai based interior design company, Depa Limited, announced that the company’s planned listing on the London Stock Exchange has been cancelled as the volume of global depositary receipts traded on the exchange was negligible as compared to the expenses of listing. (Source: Arabian Business)  Dubai based Binghatti Developers has started the construction works on Millennium Binghatti Residences project which has a total cost of AED 400.0mn (USD 109.0mn). The project is first iconic project to be built on Dubai’s Water Canal in Business Bay. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Vodafone Qatar has reported 12.1% YoY increase in their net profit excluding amortization to QAR 120.0mn for nine months period ending on December-18, driven by increase in EBITDA to QAR 407.0mn. (Source: Vodafone Qatar)  First Abu Dhabi Bank has announced to distribute cash dividends worth AED 7.6bn (70% of the capital), which is an increase of 11.0% YoY, to the shareholders for FY-17. (Source: Trade Arabia)   Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) has signed a 40 year agreement with Japan based INPEX to provide 10.0% stake in Lower Zakum offshore oil field worth USD 600.0mn. (Source: Zawya) Vodafone Group agreed to sell its 51.0% stake in Vodafone Qatar the Qatar Foundation, for EUR 301.0mn (USD 371.0mn). The company would continue to retain its brand in the country under a future partnership deal. (Source: Reuters)  Qatar Navigation has reported a 2.4% YoY decrease in its revenue to QAR 2.5bn for the FY-17. The company’s operating profit also decreased by 19.3% YoY to QAR 448.0mn, while its earning per share stood at QAR 4.1 during the same period. (Source: Milaha)  ADNOC has also awarded a contract worth USD 250.0mn to provide 25-year extension of the Satah and Umm Al Dalkh concession to INPEX with an additional 28.0% stake in the Umm Al Dalkh Oil Field. (Source: Arabian Business) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE February 27 , 2018 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.2347 USD/QAR 3.6415 106.9300 EUR/QAR 4.4962 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.3998 JPY/QAR 0.0341 USD/CHF 0.9380 GBP/QAR 5.0974 USD/CAD 1.2681 CHF/QAR 3.8822 AUD/USD 0.7855 CAD/QAR 2.8716 NZD/USD 0.7303 AUD/QAR 2.8604 USD/INR 64.2950 INR/QAR 0.0566 USD/TRY 3.7861 TRY/QAR 0.9618 USD/ZAR 11.5542 ZAR/QAR 0.3152 USD/BRL 3.2249 BRL/QAR 1.1292 Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD 1 Week 1.45 1.47 1.63 1.96 2.46 (0.44) (0.38) (0.37) (0.33) (0.19) 6.0% 2.30 2.35 2.45 2.70 3.00 4.0% SAIBOR NA 1.61 1.69 1.90 2.30 EIBOR 1.17 1.39 1.65 1.99 2.63 BMIBOR 1.30 1.55 2.08 2.34 2.93 NA NA 1.69 1.88 2.38 EURIBOR QAIBOR KIBOR 1 Year The USD remained broadly unchanged against a basket of major currencies yesterday. The USD struggled to get direction, as investors remained on the sidelines ahead of the testimony of the newly appointed Fed Chairperson Jerome Powell. The CAD weakened against its US counterpart as the investors weighed talks to restore a NAFTA trade deal. The GBP weakened against the greenback. The currency gained earlier after Bank of England Deputy Governor gave hawkish comments who earlier in November opposed to raise interest rates. The EUR lost ground earlier in the day, after the ECB Chief mentioned the need for continuous stimulus in the common currency bloc. The JPY gained against the USD after Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated that the central bank continues to target getting inflation to 2%. Overnight LIBOR 1 Month 3 Month FX Commentary Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 2.0% 2.66% 2.22% 4.80% 3.39% 3.49% 3.58% 2.61% 2.78% 2.86% 3.15% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 30 Yrs 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Qatar Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 4.0% 2.50% 2.86% 2.79% 2.72% 2.0% 1.55% 2.34% 2.17% 1.99% 2.96% 2.60% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change US 24.4 (5.6) Turkey 169.3 (3.4) UK 17.9 (2.7) Brazil 152.0 (47.2) Germany 10.8 (4.1) Egypt 268.3 (99.2) 58.0 (0.8) France 18.2 (4.2) Abu Dhabi Italy 106.9 (40.9) Bahrain 259.4 18.0 Greece 361.4 (221.0) Dubai 106.2 (14.8) Russia 102.6 (44.9) Qatar 86.3 (10.4) Japan 21.8 (9.5) Saudi Arabia 82.6 (10.0) Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 10:45 France Consumer Confidence Feb 103 104 12:00 Eurozone M3 Money Supply YoY Jan 4.60% 4.60% 12:00 Italy Manufacturing Confidence Feb 109.2 109.9 12:00 Italy Consumer Confidence Index Feb 115 115.5 13:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence Feb F 0.1 0.1 16:00 Germany CPI MoM Feb P 0.50% (0.70%) 16:00 Germany CPI YoY Feb P 1.50% 1.60% 16:30 US Durable Goods Orders Jan P (2.00%) 2.80% 18:00 US Conf. Board Consumer Confidence Feb 126.5 125.4 02:50 Japan Industrial Production MoM Jan P (4.00%) 2.90% Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Vodafone Qatar Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) 535.8 (1.0) 24.8 (28.6) (9.0) (70.3) Ithmaar Holding Bsc NA NA NA (57.7) 1,688.2 224.1 Saudi Cable Co NA NA NA (34.5) NA NA National General Insurance NA NA NA 11.2 54.3 30.4 Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE February 27 , 2018 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS (As on 22nd February 2018) Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing Qatar First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Investment Holding Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Alkhaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.0 3.2 0.0 8.8 3.3 5.7 4.8 4.6 0.0 4.3 6.6 4.7 6.3 4.8 6.5 5.1 5.8 4.4 6.0 0.0 0.0 6.5 5.7 5.8 6.8 0.0 4.8 4.6 4.8 4.2 2.3 6.8 6.5 4.6 4.0 5.3 3.0 4.9 6.1 3.6 6.6 5.0 0.0 7.5 5.7 4.0 0.0 3.3 4.3 5.6 5.5 5.4 4.8 P/B Ratio (x) 1.3 0.7 1.6 1.0 1.3 0.8 2.4 0.5 0.8 1.5 1.3 1.7 0.9 1.5 1.0 2.2 2.3 1.1 1.7 1.0 0.5 3.4 0.7 1.5 0.7 0.9 0.6 1.9 1.3 2.3 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.6 0.7 0.7 1.7 0.6 2.4 1.2 0.8 0.9 0.6 5.5 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.2 0.5 0.8 1.4 P/E Ratio (x) 10.4 20.9 22.6 9.5 (M) (‫)س‬ 8.6 15.3 172.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 9.8 11.0 8.9 27.0 10.4 6.0 31.1 15.6 34.0 15.4 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 10.9 6.0 13.7 12.2 39.2 11.8 19.8 16.9 12.6 15.9 11.3 13.8 16.9 21.6 16.7 32.7 12.9 13.8 23.2 8.6 15.7 50.7 9.7 11.9 14.3 (M) (‫)س‬ 20.2 10.9 12.1 23.2 14.5 12.9 EPS (QR) 3.2 1.5 0.6 3.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.5 2.7 0.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 10.2 5.5 14.2 0.3 5.7 10.3 2.5 10.0 0.7 7.5 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 6.0 13.1 4.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 5.5 0.9 14.7 2.0 3.9 5.0 2.4 0.6 0.8 1.5 3.5 4.1 1.9 4.4 0.6 0.2 1.7 1.2 6.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.5 3.7 1.5 2.8 1.9 2.9 BV/Share (QR) 26.4 42.1 8.4 34.9 24.0 17.5 17.6 20.1 8.4 64.7 45.0 73.4 8.8 39.9 62.2 35.6 66.7 20.7 68.0 6.0 12.9 19.0 113.5 43.3 12.5 19.8 10.4 56.6 11.6 81.7 21.4 34.4 48.0 25.0 19.3 20.8 28.9 70.8 23.4 35.3 48.6 11.4 12.7 3.0 14.7 72.2 5.3 23.7 27.9 15.4 117.8 32.5 27.6 Stock Price (QR) 33.1 31.1 13.7 34.1 30.5 13.1 41.5 10.8 6.7 99.5 60.5 127.0 8.0 62.0 79.0 155.0 22.7 116.0 6.0 6.0 65.4 78.5 8.9 17.9 6.3 108.7 14.6 185.6 32.4 44.1 69.0 12.4 14.1 50.0 45.3 57.0 38.0 10.0 8.0 16.7 88.0 7.4 40.0 17.8 64.0 - Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫ا س ت ثمار ال قاب ضة‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4