GCC Daily Market Update - 2 November

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE Novembe r 2 , 2017 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Value (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) Performance MTD (%) YTD (%) 2,579.4 23,435.0 6,248.6 7,488.0 13,465.5 5,514.3 113,024.3 22,420.1 28,594.1 3,395.9 33,600.3 4.1 57.8 0.1 (5.1) 235.9 11.0 2,881.7 408.5 348.5 2.6 387.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 (0.1) 1.8 0.2 2.6 1.9 1.2 0.1 1.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 (0.1) 1.8 0.2 2.6 1.9 1.2 0.1 1.2 15.2 18.6 28.5 4.8 17.3 13.4 44.6 17.3 30.0 9.4 26.2 8,171.2 6,948.5 4,485.2 3,634.7 6,530.1 5,048.8 1,279.1 1,623.7 3,538.9 6.1 14.1 5.6 (1.2) 16.3 38.1 2.4 1.9 9.9 0.1 0.2 0.1 (0.0) 0.3 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 (0.0) 0.2 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.3 (21.7) (3.6) (1.3) 2.9 13.6 (12.7) 4.8 3.3 21.9 60.5 54.3 2.9 1,277.3 314.3 (0.9) (0.1) (0.0) 6.8 4.2 (1.4) (0.2) (0.1) 0.5 1.3 (1.3) (0.1) 0.6 0.5 1.5 6.6 1.1 (21.8) 10.9 25.7 Source: Bloomberg Global US markets ended higher yesterday, after the US Fed left its interest rates unchanged, while providing an encouraging assessment about the US economy. Dow Jones and S&P 500 ended near their record high levels. The S&P benefitted from gains in Energy and Material shares. The Stoxx Europe 600 index rose 0.4%. Carmakers were among the notable gainers, following the release of encouraging car sales data from US. The UK’s benchmark ended lower, on the back of losses in Retailing stocks. However, gains in Mining shares limited the broad market losses, as metal prices rose, following the release of fairly in-line Chinese manufacturing activity data. The Nikkei index advanced 1.9%, helped by weakness in JPY. The Chinese benchmark settled 0.1% higher, led by gains in Insurance stocks. GCC Most GCC markets closed higher yesterday. In Saudi Arabia, Alawwal Bank and City Cement added 0.8% and 0.3%, respectively, after the companies’ Q3-17 earnings came in at the higher end of the analysts’ expectations. Index-heavyweight SABIC edged up marginally, as Brent oil prices reached at its two year high levels during the gulf session. The Omani benchmark outperformed its key peers, led by gains in Banking & Investment and Services & Insurance shares. In Dubai, Emaar Properties edged 0.6% higher, ahead of announcing the price range of its local property development unit’s IPO. Qatar The QE index climbed 0.1%. Healthy buying interest from foreign institutional investors contributed to the overall gains in the equity markets. Trade turnover fell amidst higher volumes, with Banking, Real Estate and Insurance sectors together accounting for about 80.0% of the total volume. The Telecommunication sector gathered much of the market attention, as the index settled 1.8% higher. Out of 45 companies listed, 41 exchanged hands, of which 24 declined, 11 advanced and 6 remain unchanged. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Dividend Yield (%) Value Traded (USD mn) Qatar All share 12.7 1.2 4.7 34.0 DSM 20 13.1 1.2 4.8 17.2 9,000 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 16.5 1.6 3.4 822.0 8,500 UAE (ADX) 16.4 1.3 4.5 51.6 UAE (DFM) 23.3 1.3 3.9 41.3 Kuwait (KSE) 16.6 1.1 5.3 45.5 Oman (MSM) 11.5 1.0 5.2 2.9 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 7.1 0.8 6.1 2.4 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Ooredoo Qatar & Oman Invest Qatar Intl Islamic Gulf Warehousing Co Barwa Real Estate Co Top Losers Islamic Holding Group Doha Insurance Co Dlala Holding Qatar German Co For Widam Food Co Close Price 87.7 7.6 49.0 41.3 30.3 1.8 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.3 2.1 1.3 1.3 1.0 1.0 (13.8) (23.6) (22.0) (26.3) (8.9) (7.6) (25.2) (22.9) (21.9) 1.7 79.8 27.1 66.5 12.5 145.0 14.7 21.3 9.1 11.4 8.9 33.2 14.0 16.3 6.7 60.1 (1.2) (0.4) (0.4) (0.1) (1.0) (3.5) (2.8) (2.2) (2.1) (1.6) (45.6) (23.1) (24.2) (34.1) (11.6) (39.7) 3.1 (23.5) 1.5 (25.2) 1,163.4 (32.7) 33.0 (4.5) 10.6 61.2 9.1 24.8 NA 10.4 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. Qatar DSM Index 9,500 8,000 6/Aug 15.0 8,171.2 10.0 5.0 0.0 20/Aug 3/Sep 17/Sep Index Volume (mn) 1/Oct 15/Oct 29/Oct Index Value Closing Level 2,556.1 4,714.8 2,540.5 2,992.2 1,598.0 1,045.6 1,658.6 1D Change (%) (0.2) (1.1) 0.0 0.1 (0.7) 1.8 (0.7) Buy (%) 51.3 13.7 65.0 8.0 27.0 35.0 Sell (%) 57.5 16.4 73.9 6.4 19.7 26.1 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE Novembe r 2 , 2017 GLOBAL NEWS  US’s Federal Reserve kept the interest rate unchanged as expected. The rate currently stands at 1.0% to 1.25%. The central bank xpressed optisim on the economic outlook, and remained hawkish on another rate hike by year end. (Source: USA Today)  US private sector employment increased by 235,000 jobs in October17 as compared to a increase of 110,000 jobs in September-17. (Source: ADP)  Canada’s GDP decreased by 0.1% MoM, however increased by 3.5% YoY in August-17. The fall over the month was driven by 1.0% decrease in manufacturing sector and 1.4% decrease in oil and gas sector. (Source: Energynow)  UK house prices increased by 2.5% YoY and 0.2% MoM in October-17 led by low mortgage rates and stable growth in employment rate, according to Nationwide Building Society data. The pace of growth was however impacted by pressure on household incomes. (Source: iii)  Bank of of England is expected to increase the policy rate by 25bps in November-17 and will repeat it every six months until it reaches 2.0%, according to the National Institute of Economic and Social Research. The institute downgraded UK’s growth outlook to 1.6% in 2017 and 1.7% in 2018 from its August outlook of 1.7% (2017) and 1.9% (2018). (Source: Morning Star)  Turkey’s exports increased by 15.6% YoY to USD 13.5bn in October-17 and increased by 11.0% YoY to USD 128.7bn during the first 10 months in 2017. The Nation’s Economic Minister targets exports to reach USD 156.5bn under its mid term economic programme. (Source: AA)  Turkey’s Central Bank increased its inflation forecast to 9.8% in 2017 and 7.0% in 2018. In its July-17 reports, inflation forecasts were 8.7% in 2017 and 6.4% in 2018, The central bank attributed the rise to increase in oil prices and depreciation in the Turkish lira. (Source: AA) GCC NEWS  UAE federal government departments' total expenses amounted to AED 31.5bn (USD 8.5bn) in 9M-17. Public services' expenses accounted for 33.0% of the total expenses while public safety affairs expenditures accounted for 21.0%. (Source: Trade Arabia)  UAE based traditional banks’ assets increased to AED 2.1tn (USD 571.0bn), accounting for 79.6% of the total assets of the country's banking apparatus at end of September-17. Islamic banks accounted for 20.4%. (Source: Trade Arabia)  UAE has been ranked top economy in GCC in implementing reforms during the past 15 years with 33 reforms, according to the World Bank Group’s latest 'Doing Business 2018: Reforming to Create Jobs' report. Saudi Arabia followed UAE, having implemented 30 reforms. (Source: Zawya)  UAE economy is expected to grow at a lower rate of 0.3% in 2017 due to the continuation of lower oil prices, IMF’s director, Jihad Azour, said. He further added that oil prices would average around USD 53 per barrel in the coming two to three years. (Source: Zawya)  Dubai based Majid Al Futtaim, will fund AED 1.4bn (USD 381.0mn) worth City Center shopping mall in Abu Dhabi through a mix of debt and equity, a senior official said. (Source: Zawya)  Dubai based Emirates REIT, a Sharia compliant real estate investment trust, is planning to issue a debut Islamic bond of at least USD 300.0mn by the end of 2017, as source close to the company said. (Source: Zawya)  Dubai waived 40.0% of overstay and other residency violation fines of 25,000 expatriates in 2017, top official at General Directorate of Residency and Foreigners Affairs in Dubai said. It also settled 80.0% of humanitarian cases by waiving the fines or through heavy discounts. (Source: Zawya)  Abu Dhabi National Insurance Company has reported an increase in its net profit by 24.0% YoY to AED 178.5mn (USD 47.5mn) in 9M-17. This was driven by increase in Gross Written Premium by 12.5% YoY to AED 2.0bn. Overall premium retention ratio reached 46.0% in the same period. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Sharjah based Dana Gas, has denied to redeem USD 700.0mn worth Sukuk bonds as it claims that changes in the interpretation of Islamic finance over recent years means the securities are no longer shariacompliant and have become unlawful in the UAE. (Source: Zawya)  Saudi Arabian government has set up a new authority for cyber security as per a Royal Decree to boost the cyber security of the state, and protect its vital interests, national security and sensitive infrastructure. (Source: Saudi Press Agency)  Saudi Arabia has sent a request for information to international suppliers to build two nuclear power plants, sources said. (Source: Zawya)  Saudi Arabia’s plan to build a USD 500.0bn worth business and industrial zone extending into Jordan and Egypt has been endorsed by IMF citing that the project could benefit to reduce Saudi Arabia’s budget deficit. (Source: Zawya)  Saudi Arabia based Samba Financial Group has reported a decrease in its net profit by 2.5% QoQ to SAR 1.3bn (USD 349.0mn) in Q3-17. This was driven by 2.7% QoQ increase in its total expenses as credit costs and other expenses increased. (Source: Gulf News)  Bahrain has imposed entry visas on Qatar nationals and residents as a security measure. (Source: Zawya)  Kuwait ruler reappointed his prime minister, Sheikh Jaber Mubarak alSabah, to form a cabinet after the government stepped down earlier this week in an expected cabinet reshuffle. (Source: Zawya)  Kuwait is making investments of USD 160.0bn for the development of five major islands, Bubiyan, Warba, Failaka, Maskan and Aouha, over the next 20 years according to sources. It aims to transform these islands into tourism and leisure destinations. (Source: Trade arabia) QATAR NEWS  Qatar population increased by 1.3% MoM and around 2.0% YoY to 2,668,415 in October-17, according to Ministry of Development Planning & Statistics report. (Source: Gulf Times)  His Highness the Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani and Italian Prime Minister are planning to boost bilateral trade in the field of energy, economy and investment. They also focused on how to stop the financing of terrorism. (Source: Gulf times)  Qatar Central Bank is planning to enter into the joint cooperation with Tajikistan in the field of financial and banking sectors, QCB governor said. (Source: The Peninsula)  US government has given approval to USD 1.1bn deal to service Qatar’s F-15QA fighter jets and to build ground facilities and hardened bunkers for Qatar, according to Defence Security Co-operation Agency report. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar is among the two countries in GCC and few in MENA region to have cybercriminal and cybersecurity legislation in place by end 2016, the IMF said. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar’s Ministry of Finance is planning long-term contracts with classified local companies, with an aim to encourange local production and increase the contibution of provate sector in Qatar’s growth. (Source: The Peninsula)  Ooredoo’s Mobile Money Payroll service witnessed huge demand in 2017 with over 130,000 employees being paid via the service. The service is used to pay QAR 100.0mn every month to employees across Qatar directly into their Ooredoo Money Wallet which can be accessed through their phone from anywhere. (Source: Gulf Times) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE Novembe r 2 , 2017 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value 1.1649 USD/QAR 3.6415 114.1800 EUR/QAR 4.2420 EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.3275 JPY/QAR 0.0319 USD/CHF 1.0033 GBP/QAR 4.8341 USD/CAD 1.2865 CHF/QAR 3.6295 AUD/USD 0.7676 CAD/QAR 2.8305 NZD/USD 0.6886 AUD/QAR 2.7952 USD/INR 64.0950 INR/QAR 0.0568 USD/TRY 3.8130 TRY/QAR 0.9550 USD/ZAR 14.0651 ZAR/QAR 0.2589 USD/BRL 3.2660 BRL/QAR 1.1150 Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration Overnight 1 Week 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year 1.18 1.21 1.24 1.38 1.85 EURIBOR (0.43) (0.38) (0.37) (0.33) (0.19) QAIBOR 2.01 2.11 2.25 2.49 2.97 SAIBOR NA 1.36 1.46 1.79 2.24 EIBOR 1.01 1.13 1.32 1.57 2.21 BMIBOR 1.03 1.23 1.75 2.08 2.73 NA NA 1.56 1.75 2.31 LIBOR KIBOR Source: Bloomberg 1.0% 1.08% 2.34% 2.20% 2.08% 1.33% 1.50% 5 Yrs 7 Yrs 1.68% 2.58% 2.04% 0.0% 2 Yrs SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 3.05% 3.31% 3.56% 2.01% 2.22% 2.36% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 4.43% 2.00% 1.61% 2.85% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Years CDS 3.0% 2.0% The USD ended higher yesterday against a basket of currencies, with the dollar index settling 0.3% higher at 94.788. The gains in the USD were triggered after the US Fed provided encouraging comments about the health of the US economy. The Fed also appeared hawkish, and expressed optimism over another rate hike by December. Moreover, encouraging US ADP jobs and Markit manufacturing activity data also supported the greenback. The GBP inched higher against the USD, following the release of better than expected British manufacturing activity data. The EUR weakened against the USD, amid broad-based strength in the greenback and a light economic calendar in the common currency region. The TRY weakened against the USD, after the Turkish central bank cautioned that the inflation in the nation might rise during the month of October and November-17. 5 Yrs Qatar 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 1.83% FX Commentary 10 Yrs Last Year Current 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change US 28.3 0.0 Turkey 189.6 (13.8) UK 25.7 (1.6) Brazil 173.0 (42.3) Germany 12.1 (6.2) Egypt 353.2 4.0 France 20.3 (15.6) Abu Dhabi 60.5 17.5 Italy 121.5 (52.0) Bahrain 248.8 26.9 Greece 502.6 (386.8) Dubai 136.1 26.1 Russia 130.3 (20.8) Qatar 102.5 42.0 Japan 34.6 7.2 83.6 (6.3) Saudi Arabia Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 11:55 Germany Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI Oct F 60.5 60.5 12:00 Eurozone Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Oct F 58.6 58.6 Nov-02nd 0.50% 0.25% 15:00 UK Bank of England Bank Rate 15:30 US Initial Jobless Claims Oct-28th 235k 233k 16:00 Russia Gold and Forex Reserve Oct-27th - 425.6b Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) Samba Financial Group NA NA NA 1,308.0 (2.5) 3.0 Banque Saudi Fransi NA NA NA 1,001.0 (0.9) (0.4) Alawwal Bank NA NA NA 363.0 38.1 12.7 221.7 Saudi Ind Investment Group QoQ (%) 1,755.0 9.6 0.1 226.0 39.0 National Petrochemical Co NA NA NA 196.9 3.0 48.9 Abdullah Al Othaim Markets NA NA NA 150.6 311.0 111.5 71.1 0.7 7.5 9.5 (1.7) (0.5) Knowledge Economic City NA NA NA (11.7) 61.9 27.0 Arabian Cement NA NA NA 29.5 (69.6) (16.9) Viva Kuwait Telecom Co Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE Novembe r 2 , 2017 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Investment Holding Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.3 0.0 0.0 10.6 3.0 6.3 5.6 5.0 0.0 4.9 8.2 2.6 6.6 3.8 6.2 4.4 6.4 4.0 7.6 0.0 11.4 5.8 6.6 6.9 NA 5.7 4.5 4.2 4.8 4.1 3.4 7.5 6.5 4.2 5.5 42.9 3.4 3.7 7.0 5.2 8.3 5.4 0.0 9.4 6.5 4.0 0.0 3.3 3.9 6.7 6.6 6.2 4.4 P/B Ratio (x) 1.2 0.6 2.0 0.8 1.4 0.7 2.1 0.5 0.7 1.5 1.1 1.7 0.9 1.4 1.0 2.0 2.1 1.2 1.4 1.1 0.5 3.4 0.6 1.3 NA 0.9 0.6 1.7 1.1 2.3 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.7 0.6 0.7 1.6 0.6 2.2 1.1 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.7 1.3 P/E Ratio (x) 9.3 41.0 26.9 8.1 60.7 9.4 12.9 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 9.7 9.1 8.6 21.3 9.9 6.3 29.0 14.1 37.5 12.2 (M) (‫)س‬ 19.9 10.4 5.2 11.0 NA (M) (‫)س‬ 12.5 22.4 14.4 12.4 14.6 9.8 11.2 18.5 24.7 9.1 20.1 55.4 11.8 21.3 8.9 12.9 51.5 7.8 10.9 14.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 20.4 11.4 10.2 19.2 12.5 12.4 EPS (QR) 3.2 0.6 0.6 3.5 0.6 1.3 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 10.0 5.4 14.0 0.4 5.6 10.3 2.3 10.0 0.7 7.5 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.4 5.8 13.1 5.0 NA (M) (‫)س‬ 0.5 4.3 0.9 14.7 2.0 4.1 5.6 1.9 0.4 1.5 2.2 0.7 4.2 1.8 3.4 0.7 0.2 1.7 1.1 5.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.4 3.6 1.5 2.8 1.8 2.8 BV/Share (QR) 25.9 42.6 8.4 35.5 24.1 17.4 17.0 19.5 8.4 63.1 44.9 71.8 8.6 39.4 62.2 34.1 66.7 20.7 68.0 6.0 13.8 17.6 113.5 43.4 NA 19.5 10.4 55.1 11.4 78.5 20.9 32.4 46.7 21.9 19.5 20.4 28.6 69.8 22.8 34.9 47.5 11.2 12.7 30.8 17.3 71.1 5.4 23.5 27.0 15.4 117.8 32.5 27.3 Stock Price (QR) 30.0 26.4 16.3 28.2 33.2 11.9 35.6 9.9 6.1 97.0 49.0 121.1 7.6 64.4 67.8 140.0 25.0 91.9 6.7 7.0 60.1 68.0 7.6 17.6 6.6 95.8 12.5 182.5 29.4 40.0 62.0 11.0 14.0 44.7 40.9 50.0 30.3 9.4 8.1 13.3 87.7 7.0 41.3 15.0 53.0 - Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫ا س ت ثمار ال قاب ضة‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the v iews of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4