GCC Daily Market Update - 19 December

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE December 19 , 2016 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) 2,258.1 19,843.4 4,914.9 7,011.6 11,404.0 4,833.3 77,589.7 19,401.2 22,020.8 3,123.0 26,489.6 (4.0) (8.8) (18.5) 12.6 37.6 14.0 (89.0) 127.4 (38.7) 5.3 (29.5) (0.2) (0.0) (0.4) 0.2 0.3 0.3 (0.1) 0.7 (0.2) 0.2 (0.1) 2.7 3.8 2.2 3.4 7.2 5.6 4.9 6.0 (3.4) (3.9) (0.6) 10.5 13.9 7.0 12.3 6.2 4.2 8.2 1.9 0.5 (11.8) 1.4 10,224.1 7,137.6 4,496.5 3,554.7 5,651.0 5,728.3 1,188.7 1,554.2 2,912.2 NA 46.7 33.5 0.2 (17.5) (0.4) NA 0.3 0.0 NA 0.7 0.8 0.0 (0.3) (0.0) NA 0.0 0.0 4.4 2.0 4.4 5.8 1.7 4.4 1.2 4.4 1.4 (2.0) 3.3 4.4 12.8 0.6 6.0 (2.2) 7.4 4.1 55.2 51.9 3.4 1,135.3 256.1 1.2 1.0 (0.0) 7.5 (3.5) 2.2 2.0 (0.6) 0.7 (1.4) 10.0 5.7 1.1 (3.0) (2.6) 48.9 41.1 45.0 7.1 19.6 Global Global stocks ended on a mixed note on Friday. US indices closed lower following reports that a Chinese warship seized an underwater US Navy drone in international waters off the coast of the Philippines. Losses in S&P were capped on back of strong performance by Utilities and Real Estate sector which led gainers, despite weak reading on housing starts. NASDAQ underperformed its peer US indices as Technology shares remained weak, weighed down by Oracle and Intel. In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.3% to its highest close of the year, supported by merger and acquisition speculation around drug maker Actelion as well as insurer Generali. Energy stocks, which tracked advances in oil prices, also supported the broader index. In Asia, Japan’s benchmark added 0.7%, hitting a new 52 week high, led by gains in the Shipbuilding, Glass and Non-Metal Minerals sectors. Weak yen in the Asian trade further supported the index. GCC Most Gulf stocks rose on Sunday after crude oil prices closed at a 17-month high. Saudi Arabian benchmark index rose 0.7% as all 14-petrochemical stocks ended in green, with Sahara Petrochemical up 7.1%. Saudi Cable Co rose 2.5% after it said that its Turkish subsidiary has won a USD 50.0mn order. Commodities transportation company National Shipping Co (Bahri) was also among the gainers after it announced its board had proposed a cash dividend of SAR 2.5 per share for 2016, in line with 2015. Dubai's main index rose 0.01% with Emaar Malls Group rebounding 2.7%. Abu Dhabi index ended 0.8% higher buoyed by blue chip stocks as Dana Gas and First Gulf Bank rose 1.9% and 2.0% respectively. Stock markets in Bahrain and Qatar were closed for national holidays. Qatar QE index was closed on account of National Day. Source: Bloomberg QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 13.9 1.5 4.0 NA DSM 20 14.8 1.6 4.0 56.3 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 17.0 1.7 3.3 1,253.4 UAE (ADX) 11.6 1.4 5.4 12.5 UAE (DFM) 11.6 1.3 3.9 56.8 Kuwait (KSE) 18.7 1.0 4.3 25.3 Oman (MSM) 10.8 1.1 5.1 3.2 Source: Bloomberg, Note: The latest price is as of 15th December-2016 Bahrain (BAX) 9.7 0.4 4.7 0.5 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers NA NA NA NA NA Top Losers NA NA NA NA NA Close Price NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Note: QE index was closed on 18th December 2016. Qatar DSM Index 12,000 11,500 11,000 10,500 10,000 9,500 9,000 21/Sep 40.0 10,224.1 5/Oct 19/Oct 2/Nov Index Volume (mn) 16/Nov 30/Nov 20.0 0.0 14/Dec Index Value Closing Level NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1D Change (%) NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Buy (%) NA NA NA NA NA NA Sell (%) NA NA NA NA NA NA Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Note: QE index was closed on 18th December 2016 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE December 19 , 2016 GLOBAL NEWS  The board of Saudi Telecom Co. agreed to buy a 10% stake in Middle Eastern ride-hailing app Careem for USD 100mn. (Source: Reuters)  US homebuilding fell more than expected in November-16, tumbling from a nine-year high as construction activity declined broadly. Housing starts dropped 18.7% during the month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.09mn units. (Source: Reuters)  The Saudi government allocated land for the new economic airport at Qunfudah in the north area of Makkah province, which will be built on a Build to Order (BTO) system, the General Authority of Civil Aviation (GACA) revealed. (Source: Trade Arabia)  The European Union’s chief trade negotiator said EU is close to an agreement with Japan on a free-trade deal that has taken on greater significance after President-elect Donald Trump announced US plans to withdraw from a separate pact with Pacific nations. (Source: Reuters)  Spanish firm Tecnicas Reunidas has won a contract from Saudi Aramco to build a clean fuels unit at its Ras Tanura refinery in Saudi Arabia, three industry sources said. The contract value is estimated around USD 1.5bn to USD 1.8bn. (Source: Arabian Business)  China's economy will grow at around 6.5% YoY in 2017, according to a forecast from government think tank China Academy of Social Sciences (CASS). CASS sees growth of 6.5% YoY in Q1-17 and Q2-17, and 6.4% YoY in Q3-17 and Q4-17. (Source: Reuters)  Value Added Tax could generate in excess of USD 1bn per annum as additional revenue to the Omani government once it comes into force tentatively in just over a year, according to a high-level government official. (Source: Oman Daily Observer)  Average prices of new homes in 70 Chinese cities went up 12.6% YoY in November-16, compared to a 12.3% YoY rise in October-16, registering its 14th straight month of gain and the fastest rise on record. (Source: Reuters)  Oman’s consumer-price inflation stood at 1.85% YoY in November-16, following a 10.2% rise in prices in the transport basket, according to a recent bulletin released by the National Centre for Statistics and Information. (Source: Times of Oman)  Japan's exports fell 0.4% in the year to November-16, followed by a 10.3% decline in the year to October-16, Ministry of Finance (MOF) data showed, as rapid decline in the yen and a recovery in overseas demand boosted shipments from the trade sector. (Source: Reuters)  Oman is the only member of GCC not to announce an official interest rate rise in the wake of the Fed's 0.25% increase. Oman's central bank won't automatically imitate last week's interest rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve, central bank executive president said. (Source: Reuters)  Australia's government forecasted AUD 10bn deterioration in its budget deficit over the next four years but still hoped to snatch a surplus by 2021 and forestall a damaging downgrade of its top credit rating, Treasurer Scott Morrison said. (Source: Reuters)  Oman Food Investment Holding Company, which is developing a major OMR 37mn red meat project jointly with Oman National Livestock Development Company, is in the process of acquiring land for the proposed project at Thumrait in Dhofar region, its CEO said. (Source:  Russia's central bank is more likely to cut its key rate in Q2-17 than in Q1-17, the bank's governor, Elvira Nabiullina, told. (Source: Reuters) Times of Oman)  GCC NEWS  The number of passenger cars in use in the GCC region is expected to grow at 5% annually from an estimated 10.3mn in 2015 to 13.2mn in 2020, according to Alpen Capital. (Source: Arabian Business)  The number of hotel rooms in the Middle East rose 10.8% YoY in November-16, according to data research company STR. (Source: Arabian Business) Kuwaiti telecoms firm Zain Group has made a strategic investment in Colle Capital Partners, an early stage technology venture fund based in New York, with a presence in San Francisco, its Group CEO revealed. (Source: Arabian Business)  Construction of a USD 1bn medical city spanning 1mn sq. meters of land in Bahrain is set to commence in June-17. The project will be operated by Arabian Gulf University (AGU) and is scheduled for completion by 2019, said AGU vice-president. (Source: Arabian Business) QATAR NEWS  Overall online spending continues to grow in the UAE and is forecasted to reach AED 33bn (USD 8.98bn) by 2018, according to new research by PayPal and Ipsos. (Source: Arabian Business)  Jet fuel consumption in Qatar boomed as the country registered a demand growth of 96.6% between 2010 and 2016, a new report by BMI stated. (Source: Gulf Times)  Dubai based shipping firm Gulf Navigation will order or acquire up to 12 crude and petroleum carrying vessels to be chartered to MENA Energy, group CEO of Gulf Navigation announced. (Source: Arabian Business)  About 200,000 people are expected to be employed at the logistics project being set up in south Wakra, Birkat Al Awamir and Aba Salil, the Ministry of Economy and Commerce said. (Source: The Peninsula)  Dubai based Union Properties has finalized longstanding plans to build a USD 163.35mn (AED 600mn) mixed use project in Motor City, which includes a theme park, company chairman Khalid Bin Kalban said.  Digitalization of businesses in Qatar is driving economic diversification in the country, a new report based on Siemens and Strategy & joint study revealed adding that the government and consumers in Qatar have rapidly embraced digital technologies. (Source: Qatar Tribune)  United Development Company (UDC) and Commercial Bank have signed a financing agreement worth QAR 730mn (about USD 200mn), to fund the construction of ‘Al Mutahidah Towers’, an ambitious development within the company’s flagship project, The Pearl-Qatar, UDC’s CEO said. (Source: The Peninsula)  Qatar National Bank (QNB) has increased its stake in Ecobank Transnational Incorporated (ETI) by more than 60% in the past two years. QNB which acquired 11.1% equity stake in Ecobank in 2014, has grown its equity stake to 18%, according to the last audit for the period ended 31st December-15. (Source: The Nation Newspaper)  Nebras Power has established its international business hub in the Netherlands in the form of a wholly-owned subsidiary, Nebras Power Netherlands BV aiming to invest in the global power and utilities market space, Chairman of the Board said. (Source: The Peninsula) (Source: Arabian Business)  Dubai South signed an agreement with Transit Australia Group (TAG) to launch its first electric E-bus early 2017 as part of plans to build a low carbon footprint city. (Source: Arabian Business)  Emaar Middle East announced that it will start to hand over its Emaar Square offices in Jeddah Gate, Saudi Arabia to investors and business owners this month. (Source: Arabian Business)  The UAE signed an open skies agreement with Sweden, which offers both countries full flexibility on routes, capacity, frequency and type of aircraft, the General Civil Aviation Authority (GCAA) announced. (Source: Arabian Business)  BP will take a 10% stake in Abu Dhabi's ADCO onshore oil concession, which has a life of 40 years under a deal signed with Abu Dhabi's Supreme Petroleum Council and ADNOC. (Source: Arabian Business) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE December 19 , 2016 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.0481 USD/QAR 3.6416 117.9300 EUR/QAR 3.8168 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.2526 JPY/QAR 0.0309 USD/CHF 1.0261 GBP/QAR 4.5615 USD/CAD 1.3336 CHF/QAR 3.5490 AUD/USD 0.7304 CAD/QAR 2.7307 NZD/USD 0.6963 AUD/QAR 2.6598 USD/INR 67.2713 INR/QAR 0.0541 USD/TRY 3.5053 TRY/QAR 1.0389 USD/ZAR 14.0325 ZAR/QAR 0.2595 USD/BRL 3.3879 BRL/QAR 1.0749 FX Commentary USD fell against the basket of major currencies with dollar index down 0.12% as investor booked profits, post the 14-year high attained by the currency on Thursday after the Fed raised interest rates on Wednesday and remained hawkish on the upcoming year. A pull back in November housing starts from nine months high further weighed on the currency. CAD rose against its US counterpart as oil prices rose. GBP closed lower after Bank of England said that the recent strength in GBP could soften an expected surge in British inflation next year. EUR rose as Eurozone inflation increased on a yearly basis signaling that the central bank’s QE measures are yielding results. The gains were however capped after trade report showed that Eurozone trade surplus declined to 8-month low. JPY gained 0.2% against the greenback, majorly due to weakness in the latter. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.68 0.70 0.74 1.00 1.69 (0.41) (0.38) (0.37) (0.31) (0.08) LIBOR EURIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 6.0% QAIBOR 1.15 1.27 1.42 1.77 2.17 4.0% SAIBOR NA 1.26 1.82 2.05 2.44 2.0% EIBOR 0.46 0.61 0.80 1.32 2.19 BMIBOR 0.63 0.73 1.23 1.75 2.23 KIBOR 0.75 NA 1.13 1.44 2.06 0.0% 2.52% 0.63% 0.23% 1.74% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar 2.97% 2.97% 2.20% 2.54% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 4.65% 3.19% 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 27.1 5.8 Turkey 281.3 8.8 UK 30.0 (10.9) Brazil 293.1 (57.6) Germany 23.0 3.4 Egypt 453.8 (22.8) France 38.2 (1.5) Abu Dhabi Italy 153.8 6.1 Greece 973.1 Russia 183.4 Japan 30.0 2.0% 2.49% 2.30% 2.10% 2.59% 1.51% 2.15% 1.91% 1.67% 1.0% 2.74% 1.09% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change 64.0 (38.4) Bahrain 300.0 (107.6) (66.3) Dubai 140.8 (75.9) (88.6) Qatar 80.5 (31.7) (12.5) Saudi Arabia 119.0 (66.1) Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 14:30 Germany IFO Business Climate Dec 110.6 110.4 14:30 Germany IFO Current Assessment Dec 115.9 115.6 14:30 Germany IFO Expectations Dec 105.6 105.5 15:30 Eurozone Construction Output MoM Oct - (0.90%) 15:30 Eurozone Construction Output YoY Oct - 1.80% 15:30 Eurozone Labour Costs YoY 3Q - 1.00% 18:30 Russia Unemployment Rate Nov 5.50% 5.40% 18:30 Russia Real Disposable Income Nov (5.00%) (5.90%) 18:30 Russia Real Wages YoY Nov 2.10% 2.00% 18:30 Russia Retail Sales Real MoM Nov (0.40%) 0.70% 18:30 Russia Retail Sales Real YoY Nov (3.40%) (4.40%) 20:15 US Markit US Services PMI Dec P 55.2 54.6 20:15 US Markit US Composite PMI Dec P - 54.9 20:30 Canada Bloomberg Nanos Confidence Dec-16th - 56.2 Source: Bloomberg 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE December 19 , 2016 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS (As on 15th December 2016) Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Medicare Mannai Corp. Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.7 9.6 0.0 8.7 1.7 5.8 4.9 3.4 0.0 4.3 6.5 1.9 6.1 3.4 7.6 6.6 5.2 6.0 5.3 0.0 9.1 4.2 4.9 5.8 7.0 3.2 4.4 4.4 3.3 2.3 6.8 3.9 4.3 5.1 5.4 2.3 3.1 8.0 2.7 6.9 3.2 1.9 7.5 4.4 3.0 2.2 2.9 2.3 5.4 5.5 5.1 3.9 P/B Ratio (x) 1.6 0.7 2.3 0.9 2.5 1.0 2.2 0.7 1.0 1.7 1.7 2.1 1.0 1.7 1.9 1.4 2.6 1.2 1.9 1.2 0.8 4.1 0.8 1.7 1.1 1.5 2.0 1.4 3.2 2.8 1.4 1.7 1.9 1.0 0.9 2.6 0.6 2.3 1.6 0.7 1.4 1.1 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.4 2.1 1.5 0.8 1.1 1.6 P/E Ratio (x) 11.5 16.4 (M) (‫)س‬ 7.1 (H) (‫)م‬ 10.7 12.6 (M) (‫)س‬ (H) (‫)م‬ 10.9 11.8 10.9 27.0 11.3 21.2 7.0 21.2 12.1 11.4 (M) (‫)س‬ 10.7 13.8 6.0 11.2 13.5 34.4 20.4 19.5 15.6 24.1 10.6 10.8 18.3 17.0 9.3 19.2 4.0 12.3 11.9 12.6 24.2 16.6 13.0 18.8 14.5 (M) (‫)س‬ 23.0 15.7 13.1 11.6 12.7 13.9 EPS (QR) 3.4 1.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 4.8 0.2 1.6 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.0 9.1 5.3 14.5 0.4 5.9 3.1 10.9 8.1 2.1 12.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.0 4.7 13.5 6.5 1.0 0.9 5.5 0.8 14.5 2.3 4.1 7.7 2.6 1.2 2.0 4.4 11.1 4.1 5.3 2.5 0.7 0.9 1.5 1.0 6.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.5 3.4 1.8 7.8 2.8 3.2 BV/Share (QR) 25.0 43.6 9.3 36.6 24.7 16.9 16.4 20.5 10.3 58.6 37.0 77.2 10.0 39.3 35.1 55.3 66.7 21.4 76.8 8.5 14.3 15.9 106.9 44.2 12.4 21.1 55.1 11.2 70.1 20.0 31.9 50.2 24.4 20.9 21.3 33.1 72.5 22.0 38.8 46.7 11.2 13.2 30.3 17.2 70.9 5.7 23.6 25.1 15.0 120.1 32.4 27.9 Stock Price (QR) 38.9 31.3 21.3 34.6 61.3 17.3 35.5 14.8 10.4 99.3 61.8 158.0 9.8 65.5 76.0 172.0 25.2 142.5 9.9 11.0 65.0 81.1 13.5 31.1 112.6 15.9 226.0 55.5 44.0 83.9 19.8 18.5 84.5 44.1 50.0 31.8 15.8 14.1 20.1 99.0 9.4 53.5 23.0 90.8 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4