GCC Daily Market Update - 17 July

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE July 17 , 2017 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) Global US stocks traded higher on Friday, as lackluster US retail sales and inflation data stoked optimism that the US Federal Reserve would have to keep its stance dovish for quite some time. Dow Jones and S&P 500 reached record high levels. Banking stocks remained in the spotlight, as JP Morgan, Citigroup and Wells Fargo, reported better than expected quarterly results. Weakness in Banking sector weighed on European markets, with Stoxx 600 Banks Index ending 0.7% lower. The export oriented FTSE 100 index retreated, led by the strength in the GBP. The Japanese markets traded higher, driven by weakness in the Yen during the Asian session. Hong Kong stocks rose for the fifth straight day, with property firms and raw material stocks leading the gains. GCC GCC markets traded mostly higher yesterday, with Dubai’s benchmark leading regional indices, as the index tracked an uptrend in global equities. Saudi Arabia’s benchmark also closed in green in a broad-based rally. Banque Saudi Fransi added 1.4% and some of the second- and third-tier stocks gained in unusually heavy trade. Abu Dhabi’s index traded higher, with Ajman Bank up 2.6%, after reporting a slight increase in its Q2-17 operating income. Omani markets traded lower, amid a slew of disappointing results. Oman Telecommunications declined 4.2%, as the company’s H1-17 earnings plunged 39.0% YoY. Raysut Cement fell 0.4%, after the company posted a 66.0% YoY decline in H1-17 earnings. Qatar Qatari markets traded lower, as investors booked profits from last week’s rally in stock prices. Profit booking was majorly witnessed in the latter part of the session, with Industrial stocks leading the sell-off. Domestic retail investors remained net sellers during the session. Trade turnover and volumes declined, with Banking and Telecom sectors accounting for more than 75.0% of the total volumes. Out of 44 companies listed, 39 exchanged hands, of which 34 declined, 3 advanced and 2 remain unchanged. 2,459.3 21,637.7 5,838.1 7,378.4 12,631.7 5,235.3 105,175.7 20,118.9 26,389.2 3,222.4 32,020.8 11.4 84.7 44.7 (35.1) (9.6) (0.1) 965.5 19.1 43.1 4.3 (16.6) 0.5 0.4 0.8 (0.5) (0.1) (0.0) 0.9 0.1 0.2 0.1 (0.1) 1.5 1.3 3.4 0.9 2.5 2.2 4.7 0.4 2.4 0.9 3.6 9.8 9.5 20.0 3.3 10.0 7.7 34.6 5.3 19.9 3.8 20.3 9,343.6 7,348.8 4,524.0 3,573.0 6,808.9 5,063.8 1,314.1 1,645.9 3,327.7 (126.4) 35.3 5.9 35.6 20.4 (57.6) (3.3) (0.2) (0.0) (1.3) 0.5 0.1 1.0 0.3 (1.1) (0.3) (0.0) (0.0) 3.5 (1.0) 2.2 5.3 0.7 (1.1) 0.3 4.5 1.8 (10.5) 1.9 (0.5) 1.2 18.5 (12.4) 7.7 4.7 14.6 48.9 46.5 3.0 1,227.5 268.4 0.5 0.5 0.0 10.2 3.0 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.8 1.1 2.3 1.3 (1.4) (1.2) (0.1) (13.7) (13.2) (19.6) 6.6 7.6 P/E (x) P/B (x) Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Qatar All share 13.7 1.4 4.1 35.6 DSM 20 15.4 1.6 3.7 28.6 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 17.3 1.7 3.1 661.2 UAE (ADX) 16.4 1.3 4.5 124.6 UAE (DFM) 12.9 1.3 4.0 51.5 Kuwait (KSE) 18.6 1.2 5.3 30.2 Oman (MSM) 13.0 1.1 5.7 4.1 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 8.1 0.8 6.0 0.8 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation Source: Bloomberg QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW GCC Fundamentals Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Vodafone Qatar Widam Food Co Dlala Holding NA NA Top Losers Doha Insurance Co Qatar Elect. & Water Al Khaleej Takaful Grp Qatar Fuel Qatari Investors Group Close Price 8.7 59.2 19.1 NA NA 0.1 0.3 0.0 NA NA 1.3 0.5 0.1 NA NA (7.0) (12.9) (11.1) NA NA (19.9) 1,769.5 NA (6.9) 43.3 NA (23.0) 99.0 40.0 NA NA NA NA NA NA 14.1 199.0 16.9 109.5 47.9 (0.6) (7.0) (0.4) (2.5) (0.9) (4.3) (3.4) (2.3) (2.2) (1.8) (22.5) (12.3) (20.1) (17.9) (18.1) (29.7) (9.5) (30.9) (22.5) (1.3) Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 2.6 51.7 10.9 25.0 13.3 9.1 14.2 33.5 13.3 20.8 Qatar DSM Index 11,000 10,500 10,000 9,500 9,000 8,500 19/Apr 30.0 20.0 9,343.6 10.0 0.0 3/May 17/May 31/May Index Volume (mn) 14/Jun 28/Jun 12/Jul Index Value Closing Level 2,836.8 5,471.6 2,887.7 4,142.3 2,031.7 1,135.9 2,085.5 1D Change (%) (1.2) (1.2) (1.6) (1.2) (0.5) (0.9) (1.2) Buy (%) 44.8 29.9 74.7 13.0 12.3 25.3 Sell (%) 46.7 23.7 70.4 12.4 17.2 29.6 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE July 17 , 2017 for an enterprise value of EUR 605.0mn (USD 692.0mn). GLOBAL NEWS  US business inventories rose by 0.3% MoM in May-17 as compared to a drop by 0.2% in April-17 driven by increase in retail and wholesale inventories by 0.5% MoM and 0.4% MoM respectively. (Source: Nasdaq)  US industrial production rose by 0.4% MoM in June-17, while manufacturing output also rose by 0.2% over the month. (Source: Nasdaq)  US retail sales declined by 0.2% MoM but rose by 2.8% YoY in June-17. The fall over the month was due to declines in receipts at service stations, clothing stores and supermarkets. (Source: Reuters)  Eurozone trade surplus rose by 5.9% MoM to EUR 19.7bn in May-16 driven by rise in exports by 2.1% MoM. Imports posted a 1.6% growth over the month. (Source: Market Insider)  Japan’s industrial production declined by 3.6% MoM in May-17 but it grew by 6.5% YoY. The monthly decline in shipments was revised to 2.9% from 2.8%. (Source: LSE)  China’s sovereign rating was maintained at A+ with stable outlook by Fitch driven by strong external finances and macroeconomic track record. (Source: Morning Star)    Dubai based Al Shirawi Infrastructure Construction said that it has achieved ISO certification, becoming the first infrastructure construction company certified by British Standards Institution (BSI) in the region against the 2015 edition of the quality management standard. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai Electricity and Water Authority (Dewa) said that it has completed 46.0% of the supply, extension and commissioning of the 27-km-long water pipeline stretching from Jebel Ali to Al Hebab Road. The construction is worth AED 185.0mn and will be completed in May18. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai’s Road and Transport Authority (RTA) has awarded the designing work of new marine transport stations along the recentlyopened Dubai Canal to the UK based Atkins. The work involves building a large translucent canopy over each station and provide shading to the pontoon and station building beneath. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Abu Dhabi secured 2nd position in the list of the best cities in the world to live, work and do business in, according to 2017 edition of the Ipsos top Cities Index. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Arabia) Abu Dhabi based Aldar Properties said that it will complete its Andalusian-style apartment project in Q4-17 as the building façade work is already completed and community roadworks and landscaping is underway. (Source: Trade Arabia)  The Saudi government has planned to set up wastewater treatment projects worth SAR 2.2bn (USD 586.6mn) in the cities of Jeddah and Dammam besides the Northern Border region with the help of three global consultant companies, said the CEO of the National Water Company (NWC). (Source: Trade Arabia)  Bahrain-based Investcorp announced its agreement for the sale of Spain-based Esmalglass to global private equity firm Lone Star Fund X Qatar will build QAR 1.6bn food storage and processing facilities at Hamad Port capable of supplying stockpile for three main commodities – rice, sugar, and edible oils, for 3.0mn people for two and a half years. New Port Project Steering Committee and Al Jaber Engineering are the main contractor and designer for the facility. (Source: Gulf Times)  New firms registered under the Qatar Financial Centre Regulatory rose 41.0% YoY during H1-17. Newly registered firms were from a wide variety of sectors including Information Technology, Education and Training, Events and PR, Advisory and Consulting. A vast increase in the European firms was witnessed. (Source: Gulf Times)  Commercial registrations in June-17 stood at 972, while new subregistries totaled 385, according to The Ministry of Economy and Commerce (MEC) report on internal trade. The limited liability companies took the lead accounting for 63.0% of the total, followed by limited liability companies with a single owner (24.0%) and individual institutions (12.0%). (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar Chamber (QC) and Pakistan plan to set up joint factories in Qatar to provide various commodities to the local market and export the surplus. In recent business meeting QC also discussed ways to increase Qatar’s imports of Pakistani goods. (Source: Gulf Times)  Public Works Authority (Ashghal) president Saad bin Ahmed alMuhannadi said that the ongoing infrastructure projects in Qatar have not been affected by the challenges arising from the economy blockade due to sourcing of construction materials from a number of alternative destinations and use of locally produced materials. (Source: Gulf Times)  Moody’s has affirmed Doha Banks A2/prime-1 deposit ratings and baa3 baseline credit assessment. Doha Bank said its A2 deposits rating incorporates the bank’s importance to the local financial system and willingness and ability of the Qatari government to provide support to local banks. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar Industrial Manufacturing Company (QIMC) has signed a term loan agreement with Doha Bank to fund its new mixed-use development project, ‘Abraj Al Tahwiliya’ which is under the foundation phase and comprises three towers. (Source: Gulf Times)  Oman based Zubair Corporation’s CEO C.S. Badrinath said that the company has three projects in partnerships with Qatari businessmen, which are expected to be launched soon. The project includes water production and distribution under the brand ‘Oasis Qatar’; a factory for electrical transformers and a factory for petrochemical. (Source: Gulf Abu Dhabi's trade in pearl, gemstones and precious metals rose 66.0% YoY in 2016 to AED 15.4bn (USD 4.2bn) as exports went up 1.5% to AED 3.4bn and imports were valued at AED 5.4bn in 2016. (Source: Trade  According to the Institute of International Finance (IIF) Qatar’s banking system has the lowest non-performing loans (NPLs) at 1.3% of total income compared to 5.8% in the UAE, 2.4% in Kuwait, 1.8% in Oman and 1.4% in Saudi Arabia. Qatar banks’ return on assets stood at 1.7% against 1.5% in the UAE, 1.6% in Oman and 1.0% in Kuwait. (Source: Gulf Times)  GCC NEWS  Oman Oil Company’s CEO said that it is planning to set up an ammonia project that will be developed downstream of its existing methanol plant in Salalah Free Zone. (Source: Trade Arabia) QATAR NEWS Market Insider) Dubai Holding and Jabal Omar Development Company inked an agreement to develop a new hotel in Makkah, Saudi Arabia, which will include 1,033 guest rooms along with 93 villas. The hotel will be completed in early 2019. (Source: Trade Arabia) Oman Gas Company’s CEO said that gas supply agreement to the Special Economic Zone in Duqm (SEZD) will become operational by 2019. He added that the gas supply station is expected to receive about 15mn cubic meter (cu m) of gas per day during the first stage and might be increased to 25.0mn cu m per day if the need arises. (Source: Trade Arabia)  China’s exports grew by 11.3% YoY and imports rose by 17.2% YoY in June-17 with total trade surplus amounting to USD 42.8bn. (Source:  (Source: Trade Arabia) Times) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE July 17 , 2017 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1500 USD/QAR 3.6415 112.5300 EUR/QAR 4.1877 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.3128 JPY/QAR 0.0324 USD/CHF 0.9635 GBP/QAR 4.7806 USD/CAD 1.2644 CHF/QAR 3.7794 AUD/USD 0.7832 CAD/QAR 2.8800 NZD/USD 0.7347 AUD/QAR 2.8520 USD/INR 63.9475 INR/QAR 0.0569 USD/TRY 3.5381 TRY/QAR 1.0292 USD/ZAR 13.0357 ZAR/QAR 0.2793 USD/BRL 3.1796 BRL/QAR 1.1453 FX Commentary The USD traded lower against a basket of currencies on Friday, with the dollar index ending 0.6% lower. The weakness in the greenback was driven by disappointing US retail sales and inflation data, which weakened the case for the US Federal Reserve to adopt a hawkish stance. The GBP traded higher against the USD, as hawkish comments from one of the Bank of England’s key policy marker supported the currency. The JPY traded higher against the USD, however, the gains were limited, after the Japan’s May17 industrial production data disappointed market participants. The CAD remained supported against the USD, as the Bank of Canada’s move to lift its interest rates for the first time in several years continued to drive the currency higher. Additionally, gains in oil prices also supported the CAD. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 1.18 1.19 1.23 1.30 1.74 (0.42) (0.38) (0.37) (0.33) (0.15) 1.84 2.03 2.27 2.51 2.99 4.0% SAIBOR NA 1.36 1.46 1.80 2.24 2.0% EIBOR 0.99 1.17 1.30 1.54 2.14 BMIBOR 1.00 1.25 1.75 1.98 2.73 NA NA 1.50 1.75 2.31 LIBOR EURIBOR QAIBOR KIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 6.0% 2.29% 1.36% 0.0% 2 Yrs 3.02% 3.26% 3.51% 1.87% 2.14% 2.33% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 5 Yrs Qatar 4.44% 2.92% 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 25.9 (4.7) Turkey 192.1 (96.4) UK 22.1 (10.9) Brazil 225.8 (29.0) Germany 16.6 (6.9) Egypt 407.5 (31.0) France 23.2 (20.4) Abu Dhabi Italy 148.6 (9.3) Greece 603.4 Russia 166.4 Japan 27.6 2.0% 1.60% 1.93% 2.58% 1.81% 1.0% 0.0% 2.28% 2.10% 0.88% 1.23% 1.09% 2 Yrs 1.41% 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change 62.0 1.0 Bahrain 241.1 (34.3) (562.9) Dubai 127.9 (21.6) (16.9) Qatar 106.8 (11.0) (4.4) Saudi Arabia 105.7 17.4 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event 12:00 Eurozone CPI MoM Period Survey Prior Jun 0.00% (0.10%) 12:00 Eurozone 12:00 Eurozone CPI YoY Jun F 1.30% 1.40% CPI Core YoY Jun F 1.10% 1.10% 15:30 United States Empire Manufacturing Jul 15.0 19.8 Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Kuwait Finance House NA NA NA 43.1 17.1 11.6 Jarir Marketing Co NA NA NA 147.8 15.0 (33.3) Mashreqbank NA NA NA 557.4 3.3 2.1 Bankmuscat Saog NA NA NA 40.1 (14.2) (9.4) Oman Telecommunications 135.1 (0.7) 1.9 17.0 (46.8) (28.6) Bank Dhofar NA NA NA 10.2 (19.2) (18.6) National Bank Of Fujairah NA NA NA 154.9 24.4 22.9 Sharjah Islamic Bank NA NA NA 133.7 6.5 (3.9) Ominvest NA NA NA 4.1 (11.5) (50.8) National Bank Of Oman NA NA NA 12.3 (20.4) (10.6) Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE July 17 , 2017 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS (As on 13th July 2017) Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 2.9 0.0 0.0 8.2 2.0 5.6 4.8 3.5 0.0 5.0 7.2 2.3 5.8 3.3 5.1 3.7 6.6 3.5 5.7 0.0 8.7 5.9 5.8 5.6 5.4 4.6 4.0 4.5 3.6 2.1 6.9 5.1 4.1 3.5 4.1 1.8 4.6 5.4 2.4 7.4 4.0 0.0 7.2 5.1 3.7 0.0 3.0 3.4 5.4 4.8 4.5 3.5 P/B Ratio (x) 1.4 0.7 2.1 1.1 2.1 0.8 2.7 0.7 0.9 1.7 1.4 2.0 0.9 1.7 1.5 2.4 2.2 1.4 1.7 1.2 0.7 4.1 0.7 1.6 0.9 1.1 1.9 1.2 2.9 2.4 1.4 1.6 1.7 0.8 0.7 2.4 0.5 3.1 1.5 0.8 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.9 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.9 1.3 0.6 1.0 1.6 P/E Ratio (x) 10.4 40.4 (H) (‫)م‬ 8.9 73.8 11.3 15.5 (H) (‫)م‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 10.2 10.6 9.9 24.3 11.3 7.2 33.3 14.3 47.5 13.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 10.3 11.2 6.2 12.0 15.7 (H) (‫)م‬ 19.2 17.0 14.7 21.1 10.3 10.7 17.6 33.9 9.5 19.4 13.8 15.2 17.9 9.2 15.3 24.0 10.4 12.7 15.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 23.0 13.1 11.3 14.2 12.5 14.8 EPS (QR) 3.2 0.8 0.5 3.4 0.7 1.2 2.7 0.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 9.4 5.3 13.8 0.4 5.5 11.0 2.5 9.5 0.6 8.2 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.9 5.3 12.6 5.4 0.7 0.0 5.3 0.8 14.0 2.3 4.2 6.7 2.4 0.5 1.6 3.7 2.4 4.3 3.0 3.7 0.8 0.5 1.7 1.2 5.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.4 3.6 1.6 5.2 2.6 3.0 BV/Share (QR) 24.2 42.0 9.2 29.1 24.3 16.7 15.6 20.1 9.0 57.9 39.2 68.1 9.6 36.8 54.5 33.9 63.0 20.9 65.8 6.4 14.0 14.5 112.9 41.5 12.7 19.5 52.9 10.9 72.3 20.1 30.9 44.8 23.9 20.9 21.3 29.2 71.6 21.0 35.7 45.6 11.7 12.6 30.2 17.4 68.5 5.5 22.8 25.2 14.7 122.0 33.3 27.4 Stock Price (QR) 33.0 30.3 19.1 30.5 51.1 13.5 42.1 14.2 7.8 95.5 55.8 136.7 8.6 79.1 81.4 136.3 29.0 112.0 7.8 9.2 58.9 78.0 11.2 21.9 101.0 13.5 206.0 48.8 43.2 71.1 17.3 14.7 70.9 33.0 64.9 34.0 12.6 11.0 17.5 94.1 8.6 47.0 18.5 73.7 - Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4