GCC Daily Market Update - 14 November

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE November 14 , 2017 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,584.8 23,439.7 6,316.2 7,415.2 13,074.4 5,341.6 108,859.6 22,381.0 29,182.2 3,447.8 33,033.6 2.5 17.5 7.1 (17.8) (53.1) (39.1) (89.8) (300.4) 61.3 15.2 (281.0) 0.1 0.1 0.1 (0.2) (0.4) (0.7) (0.1) (1.3) 0.2 0.4 (0.8) 0.4 0.3 1.1 (1.0) (1.2) (2.9) (1.2) 1.7 3.3 1.6 (0.5) 15.5 18.6 29.9 3.8 13.9 9.9 39.3 17.1 32.6 11.1 24.1 7,857.0 6,961.5 4,369.6 3,477.7 6,250.7 5,083.9 1,262.9 1,561.1 3,543.9 (18.6) 28.4 (4.1) 13.0 74.6 16.7 (1.4) 3.4 (4.6) (0.2) 0.4 (0.1) 0.4 1.2 0.3 (0.1) 0.2 (0.1) (3.8) 0.4 (2.5) (4.3) (4.0) 1.5 (1.1) (3.7) 0.4 (24.7) (3.5) (3.9) (1.5) 8.7 (12.1) 3.5 (0.7) 21.9 63.2 56.8 3.2 1,278.9 311.7 (0.4) 0.0 (0.0) 4.7 4.1 (0.6) 0.0 (1.4) 0.4 1.3 2.6 4.1 7.7 0.7 0.5 10.8 5.4 (16.2) 11.0 24.4 Global Global markets remained mixed yesterday, amid a batch of weak corporate earnings data. The US Equity markets ended marginally higher yesterday, however the gains were capped amidst prevailing uncertainty regarding Republican tax-cut legislation. The S&P 500 ended 0.1% higher led by gains in Utilities and Consumer Staples shares. However, Industrial sector capped broad market gains, as General Electric retreated after providing a bearish outlook. The Stoxx Europe 600 slumped for the fifth straight session as the Brexit jitters continued to weigh on economic growth outlook of the Eurozone and as weak corporate earnings weighed on investor sentiment. The Japanese benchmark index retreated 1.3%, despite a weakness in JPY, as the investors booked profits following recent rally in the market. The Hang Seng index advanced 0.2%, led by gains in Technology shares. GCC Most GCC markets closed higher yesterday. The Saudi Arabian benchmark rose by 0.4%, as the state-linked funds resort to buying in order to stabilize the market amidst political jitters. The index was supported by gains in Retailing, Diversified Financials and Food & Beverages sectors. Alujain plunged 9.8%, after reporting a decline in its Q3-17 earnings. The Dubai benchmark ended higher. GFH Finance House advanced 6.3%, as the company stated to have exited real estate portfolios in Bahrain and the United States and looks to invest in the Education sector. Qatar The QE index declined by 0.2% yesterday to settle at 7,857. Increased selling pressure from the Gulf institutional investors weighed on the performance of the market. Trade turnover and volumes increased during yesterday’s session, with Real Estate, Banking and Industrials sectors together accounted for about 68% of the total volume. Out of 45 companies listed, 39 exchanged hands, of which 24 declined, 8 advanced and 7 remain unchanged. Source: Bloomberg QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 12.1 1.1 4.9 42.8 DSM 20 12.6 1.2 5.0 37.4 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 16.4 1.6 3.4 923.6 UAE (ADX) 15.7 1.3 4.6 35.0 UAE (DFM) 20.9 1.3 4.1 80.5 Kuwait (KSE) 15.5 1.1 5.5 44.6 Oman (MSM) 11.5 1.0 5.2 4.0 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 7.0 0.8 6.2 1.1 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Commercial Bank Pqsc Qatar National Cement Mesaieed Petrochem Industries Qatar Qatar Islamic Bank Top Losers Al Khaleej Takaful Grp Qatar Industrial Manu Ezdan Holding Group Qatar German Co Medicare Group Close Price 26.9 59.5 11.1 94.9 94.3 0.7 1.3 0.1 0.4 0.3 2.5 2.1 0.5 0.4 0.3 (13.1) (23.9) (29.7) (19.2) (9.2) (10.0) (20.2) (26.4) (5.1) (5.6) 125.0 1.9 33.3 156.8 44.2 10.5 37.0 8.0 5.5 54.5 (0.8) (2.3) (0.4) (0.3) (2.5) (7.1) (5.9) (5.0) (4.3) (4.3) (50.2) (16.8) (47.2) (45.5) (13.3) (47.6) (13.7) (46.9) (44.4) (9.3) 15.3 23.9 0.2 9.1 276.8 10.8 18.8 NA 9.7 23.2 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 56.2 10.7 12.8 22.2 10.3 Qatar DSM Index 9,500 15.0 9,000 7,857.0 8,500 5.0 8,000 7,500 17/Aug 10.0 0.0 31/Aug 14/Sep 28/Sep Index Volume (mn) 12/Oct 26/Oct 9/Nov Index Value Closing Level 2,519.6 4,307.2 2,405.4 2,684.6 1,413.4 967.4 1,512.0 1D Change (%) 0.2 (0.6) (0.1) (1.8) (3.0) (3.2) (0.8) Buy (%) 33.8 24.3 58.1 6.0 35.9 41.9 Sell (%) 41.4 20.5 61.9 6.0 32.1 38.1 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE November 14 , 2017 GLOBAL NEWS  US monthly deficit rose 38.0% YoY to USD 63.2bn in October-17, driven by 6.2% YoY increase in revenue to USD 253.3bn and 11.6% YoY increase in spending amounting to USD 298.6bn during the same period. (Source: Forexlive)  Abu Dhabi based Aldar Properties has reported a 20% YoY decrease in its net profit to AED 597.8mn, while the underlying revenue grew 27.0% YoY to AED 1.9bn in Q3-17. (Source: The Nationals)  Aldar Properties has announced that it is planning to purchase a 21storey, 41,000 sq. m. commercial office building, International Tower, in its capital Gate district, the company’s CFO said. (Source: Zawya)  Total share purchase and sale transactions of First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB) reached AED 13.2bn since the merger of the National Bank of Abu Dhabi and First Gulf Bank in April-17. These deals accounted for 17.3% of total transactions recorded on the Abu Dhabi exchange during first ten months of 2017. (Source: Trade Arabia)  UK’s Rightmove house price decreased 0.8% MoM while increased by 1.1% YoY in November-17, as the sellers provided attractive pricing terms to the buyers in a more challenging market. (Source: Market Insider)  Bank of England’s Chief Economist, Andy Haldane, stated that UK’s inflation is expected to remain above the current 2.0% target for next few years. (Source: Market Insider)   Germany’s Wholesale Price Inflation Index increased 3.0% YoY while remained unchanged on monthly basis in October-17. Prices of solid fuels and petroleum products increased 2.8% YoY, while cost of ores, metals and semi-finished metal products increased 10.0% YoY during the same period. (Source: Market Insider) Abu Dhabi based National Petroleum Constructions Company has received an engineering, procurement and construction contract worth AED 1.2bn (USD 326.0mn) from Saudi Aramco to develop an offshore platforms and two pipelines for the company’s Al Safaniya oilfields. (Source: Trade Arabia)   Japan’s PPI increased to 3.4% YoY as compared to an estimated increase of 3.1% YoY in October-17. Export prices increased by 1.7% MoM and 9.7% YoY while import prices increased by 2.6% MoM and 15.3% YoY during the same period. (Source: Market Insider) Saudi Arabia’s total employment rates for expatriates aged 15 years and above in the Kingdom increased by 0.2% QoQ to 6.0% in Q2-17 according to the General Authority for Statistics. (Source: GaStat)  King Abdullah Economic City (KAEC) has inked several agreements and partnerships deals with the General Customs Authority and the Economic Cities Authority (ECA) to create a deposit and re-export zone within the Jeddah facility and to build an auto racing circuit at Lagoona and Marina Dreams. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Bahrain based GFH Financial Group has reported a profit of USD 25.1mn in Q3-17 compared to a net loss of USD 7.6mn in Q3-16. The company’s net profit attributable to shareholders increased significantly to USD 87.2mn in 9M-17 driven by a 70% YoY increase in its consolidated revenue to USD 169.0bn. (Source: DFM)  Bahrain based Bank ABC Islamic Bank reported a 25% YoY increase in its net profit to USD 21.0mn while total operating income increased by 20.0% YoY to USD 26.6mn in 9M-17. This growth was driven new customer acquisition and company’s product expertise. (Source: Trade  China's bank lending fell 47.8% YoY to CNY 663.2bn and aggregate financing decreased by 42.9% amounting to CNY 1.04tn in October-17. Chinese broad M2 money supply rose 8.8% YoY during the same month. (Source: Market Insider)  Turkey’s current account deficit widened by USD3.0 mn YoY to USD4.5 bn in September 2017, mainly driven by a primary income deficit, which increased by USD171 mn to USD1.1 bn. (Source: AA)  The central bank of Turkey is planning to offer a financial instrument that will allow companies with foreign currency liabilities to protect themselves against any depreciation in the TRY. The regulator will offer non-deliverable forward contracts to give currency protection without affecting the official reserves. (Source: AA) GCC NEWS   GCC is expected to save around USD 55.0-87.0bn by 2030 by shifting towards renewable energy, with the aim of energy diversification strategies to meet the rising demand, according to BNC research report. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Bahrain based Manara Developments has renewed its contract as a strategic sponsor for Gulf Property Show 2018, the company’s managing director said. (Source: Trade Arabia).  Oman's Duqm Refinery and Petrochemical Industries Company is planning to raise debt financing from banks to fund its USD 6.0bn refinery project which will be able to process 230,000 bpd of crude oil and occupy 900 hectares in the Duqm industrial zone. The project is expected to require investments of up to USD 15.0bn over the next 15 years. (Source: Zawya) UAE order book of Dubai Airshow 2017 included 11 new deals for international and local companies. The Defence Ministry signed an agreement amounting to AED 6.0bn (USD 1.6bn) with US aerospace company, Lockheed Martin Corp, to upgrade its F-16 jet fighters. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Arabia) Dubai National Insurance and Reinsurance group reported a 0.7% YoY increase in its net profits to AED 42.0mn in Q3-17, driven by increase in its gross premium by 23.0% YoY to AED 258.5mn and net underwriting income by 11.0% YoY to AED 34.7mn in the same period. QATAR NEWS  Qatar Financial center’s CEO, Yousuf al Jaida, stated that more than 90 international firms have started their business in Qatar after the siege. He added that QFC registered 41.0% YoY increase in the number of new companies H1-17, out of which 75.0% applied for licenses after the siege. (Source: Qatar Tribune)  Qatar based culture village, Katara, has been awarded by the British institute, Intertek an ISO 27001 certificate for attaining international standards in information security management and ISO 9001 certificate in the cultural affairs management. (Source: Gulf Times)  Doha Bank has partnered with Warmond Trustees and Executors Private Limited to provide succession and estate planning services to its Indian expat customers. (Source: Qatar Tribune)  Qatar based diversified industry group, Al Faisal Holding has inked a MoU with Turkey based Kugu Logistics, to collaborate for number of investments in various food sector projects. (Source: Gulf Times) (Source: DFM)  Dubai Aerospace Enterprise and Bahrain’s national carrier, Gulf Air, have inked a leasing agreement for five Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner aircrafts that are expected to deliver to Gulf carrier’s fleet by 2018. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai based Abdul Rahim Architectural Consultants, Araco, has been awarded a contract by Tecom Group, a member of Dubai Holding, for its AED 75.0mn (USD 20.4mn) tower at Al Barsha Heights. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai based Wasl Asset Management Group has introduced its 3rd tower of Park Gate Residences for sale onto Dubai's freehold property market which would provide 746 modern apartments. (Source: Trade Arabia) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE November 14 , 2017 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1697 USD/QAR 3.6415 113.6200 EUR/QAR 4.2595 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.3146 JPY/QAR 0.0320 USD/CHF 0.9963 GBP/QAR 4.7871 USD/CAD 1.2733 CHF/QAR 3.6550 AUD/USD 0.7623 CAD/QAR 2.8599 NZD/USD 0.6903 AUD/QAR 2.7759 USD/INR 64.9275 INR/QAR 0.0561 USD/TRY 3.8706 TRY/QAR 0.9408 USD/ZAR 14.4700 ZAR/QAR 0.2517 USD/BRL 3.2794 BRL/QAR 1.1104 FX Commentary The USD traded higher against a basket of currencies yesterday, with the dollar index settling 0.1% higher at 94.489. The EUR strengthened against the USD. However, the gains remained limited, as one of the leading policy maker of the European Central Bank, Vitor Constancio, stated that the central bank must continue with its accommodative monetary stance given weak inflation in the region. Slower growth in German whole price index in October-17 also capped the gains in EUR. The GBP weakened against the USD, as the political turmoil in the nation worsened amid reports that several Conservative members of Parliament demanded resignation of Theresa May. The ZAR continued its downward trajectory against the USD, after the nation’s deputy director-general of the Treasury resigned from his post. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 1.18 1.20 1.25 1.41 1.88 (0.44) (0.38) (0.37) (0.33) (0.19) LIBOR EURIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 6.0% 2.05 2.18 2.23 2.45 2.97 4.0% SAIBOR NA 1.36 1.48 1.81 2.25 2.0% EIBOR 1.00 1.12 1.31 1.61 2.24 BMIBOR 1.03 1.23 1.75 2.13 2.75 NA NA 1.56 1.75 2.31 QAIBOR KIBOR 1.69% 2 Yrs 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 28.3 UK Germany France 1.88% 2.0% 1.0% 2.14% 1.93% 1.73% 2.62% 2.46% 1.24% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs 2.08% 2.28% 2.41% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 5 Yrs US Swap Rates 2.39% 3.73% 4.52% 2.87% 0.0% Source: Bloomberg 2.26% 3.47% 2.15% Source: Bloomberg 2.14% 3.21% Qatar Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS 30 Yrs Spread 6M Change 0.2 Turkey 216.0 8.8 24.2 1.6 Brazil 181.8 (19.0) 11.3 (7.2) Egypt 372.5 27.5 19.8 (12.3) Abu Dhabi 68.6 24.2 Italy 120.8 (45.2) Bahrain 291.0 63.1 Greece 481.6 (206.2) Dubai 141.9 26.5 Russia 140.8 (12.1) Qatar 108.7 44.8 Japan 34.0 8.0 Saudi Arabia 104.9 11.5 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 12:30 UK CPI YoY Oct 3.10% 3.00% 13:00 Germany ZEW Survey Current Situation Nov 88 87 13:00 Germany ZEW Survey Expectations Nov 19.5 17.6 2:50 Japan GDP SA QoQ Q3 P 0.40% 0.60% 7:30 Japan Industrial Production MoM Sep F - (1.10%) Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) (27.3) 1.9 597.8 (20.1) (3.6) 232.7 (2.9) 25.1 NA (17.0) 253.0 11.5 14.5 375.0 697.9 772.1 Salhia Real Estate Co NA NA NA 3.1 30.1 (6.0) Commercial Real Estate Co NA NA NA 3.5 15.7 (9.2) Albaraka Banking Group NA NA NA 26.8 (23.5) (25.0) Ithmaar Holding NA NA NA (17.8) NA 81.2 Al-Ahleia Insurance Co Sakp NA NA NA 2.3 399.1 19.4 341.6 6.3 5.7 22.5 50.7 4,217.3 Aldar Properties Pjsc Revenues (mn) YoY (%) 1,379.9 67.2 Gfh Financial Group Dana Gas National Marine Dredging Co QoQ (%) Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE November 14 , 2017 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Investment Holding Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.6 0.0 0.0 11.0 3.7 6.1 5.7 6.1 0.0 5.0 8.9 2.6 7.1 3.8 7.0 5.5 6.6 4.0 8.2 0.0 12.4 6.4 6.6 7.5 N/A (‫)غ‬ 6.6 5.5 4.2 5.4 4.3 4.0 8.1 6.7 4.4 5.7 42.3 3.9 3.8 7.7 5.8 8.9 6.3 0.0 9.9 7.3 4.3 0.0 3.6 4.2 7.1 7.6 6.9 4.6 P/B Ratio (x) 1.1 0.6 1.8 0.8 1.1 0.7 2.1 0.4 0.6 1.5 1.0 1.7 0.8 1.4 0.9 1.6 2.0 1.2 1.3 0.9 0.5 3.1 0.6 1.2 N/A (‫)غ‬ 0.8 0.5 1.7 1.0 2.2 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.6 0.5 0.7 1.4 0.6 2.0 1.0 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.6 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.7 1.2 P/E Ratio (x) 8.7 41.8 25.0 7.8 50.1 9.7 12.6 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 9.4 8.3 8.6 19.8 9.8 5.5 23.3 13.7 37.5 11.3 (M) (‫)س‬ 18.3 9.5 5.2 10.1 N/A (‫)غ‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 10.3 22.2 12.9 11.9 12.3 9.1 10.7 17.7 23.7 9.2 17.4 54.2 10.7 19.1 8.3 11.0 42.8 7.4 9.7 13.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 18.8 10.4 9.6 16.7 11.4 11.8 EPS (QR) 3.2 0.6 0.6 3.5 0.6 1.3 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 10.0 5.4 14.0 0.4 5.6 10.3 2.3 10.0 0.7 7.5 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.4 5.8 13.1 5.0 N/A (‫)غ‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 0.5 4.3 0.9 14.7 2.0 4.1 5.6 1.9 0.4 1.5 2.2 0.7 4.2 1.8 3.4 0.7 0.2 1.7 1.1 5.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.4 3.6 1.5 2.8 1.8 2.8 BV/Share (QR) 25.9 42.6 8.4 35.5 24.1 17.4 17.0 19.5 8.4 63.1 44.9 71.8 8.6 39.4 62.2 34.1 66.7 20.7 68.0 6.0 13.8 17.6 113.5 43.4 N/A (‫)غ‬ 19.5 10.4 55.1 11.4 78.5 20.9 32.4 46.7 21.9 19.5 20.4 28.6 69.8 22.8 34.9 47.5 11.2 12.7 30.8 17.3 71.1 5.4 23.5 27.0 15.4 117.8 32.5 27.3 Stock Price (QR) 28.0 26.9 15.1 27.4 27.4 12.3 35.0 8.2 5.4 94.3 45.0 120.7 7.1 57.0 54.5 136.0 25.0 85.0 5.5 6.5 54.9 68.0 6.3 15.2 5.5 94.9 11.1 175.4 24.8 37.0 59.5 10.5 14.2 38.7 40.0 45.5 28.1 8.0 6.8 12.7 82.0 6.1 37.8 14.1 46.0 - Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫ا س ت ثمار ال قاب ضة‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4