GCC Daily Market Update - 12 April

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE April 12 , 2017 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,353.8 20,651.3 5,398.4 7,365.5 12,139.4 5,101.9 90,904.5 18,747.9 24,088.5 3,289.0 29,788.4 (3.4) (6.7) (23.3) 16.6 (61.2) (5.6) (336.0) (50.0) (173.7) 19.6 212.6 (0.1) (0.0) (0.4) 0.2 (0.5) (0.1) (0.4) (0.3) (0.7) 0.6 0.7 (0.4) (0.1) (0.7) 0.6 (1.4) (0.4) 2.2 (0.9) (0.1) 2.1 0.6 5.1 4.5 11.0 3.1 5.7 4.9 16.3 (1.9) 9.5 6.0 11.9 10,411.8 7,036.4 4,563.0 3,535.2 7,029.8 5,550.0 1,362.7 1,676.8 3,117.4 (73.3) (25.8) (8.7) (1.3) 21.6 (29.0) (0.0) (1.7) 0.4 (0.7) (0.4) (0.2) (0.0) 0.3 (0.5) (0.0) (0.1) 0.0 0.2 0.5 2.7 1.6 0.0 (0.0) 0.5 2.2 (0.2) (0.2) (2.4) 0.4 0.1 22.3 (4.0) 11.7 6.5 7.1 56.2 53.4 3.2 1,271.2 260.8 0.3 0.3 (0.1) 20.1 0.4 0.5 0.6 (2.7) 1.6 0.2 6.7 5.8 (0.6) 1.9 (2.0) (0.8) (0.4) (14.9) 10.4 3.7 Source: Bloomberg Global Most global indices fell on Tuesday as investors remained cautious on rising geopolitical tensions. While Syrian government warplanes dropped barrel bombs on rebel-held areas, North Korea state media warned of a nuclear attack on the US. In US, Financial stocks was the biggest drag, down 0.5% tracking lower treasury yields. Tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 0.4% as Technology stocks continued its downward trajectory. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index ended in red, weighed by Banking stocks, which fell to a one-month low. In Asia, Nikkei fell 0.3% due to stronger yen. Shanghai Composite rose to a 15month high as Real Estate stocks led the gainers on expectations that it will benefit from the development of Xiong’an New Area. GCC Most of the Gulf indices fell on Tuesday. Dubai’s benchmark index edged down 0.4% in a thin trade as buying support from long term institutional investors weakened amidst heightened geopolitical risk. Dubai Islamic Bank rose 0.9%, outperforming most of its peers after reporting 14.0% YoY increase in net profit for Q1-17. Abu Dhabi’s main index fell 0.2% as index witnessed profit booking particularly in First Gulf Bank and Abu Dhabi National Energy. Saudi Arabia’s index ended 0.4% lower as Banking shares were the biggest drag, falling 0.4% for the day. Agriculture companies were among the gainers on hopes that these producers may get financial support from the state owned development fund. Saudi Fisheries bucked the broader trend, down 1.4% after reporting weak Q1-17 earnings. Qatar QE index fell 0.7% as oil price retreated from its five-week high. There was increased selling pressure from Gulf institutions and its domestic counterpart. The index witnessed bearish bets particularly in Real Estate and Telecom counters, with Ooredoo leading the decliners, dropping 2.4% for the day. Trade turnover and volumes rose with Banking, Real Estate and Telecom sectors together accounting for about 84% of the total volumes. Of the 44 companies listed, 17 rose, 20 fell and 7 remained unchanged. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 15.1 1.5 3.5 77.8 DSM 20 15.4 1.5 3.5 56.9 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 17.2 1.6 3.4 686.8 UAE (ADX) 18.0 1.3 4.4 52.1 UAE (DFM) 15.0 1.3 3.9 65.6 Kuwait (KSE) 22.4 1.3 3.4 68.7 Oman (MSM) 11.2 1.1 5.3 4.8 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 8.9 0.8 5.8 2.5 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Qatar Cin & Film Dist. Qatar Gen Insur & Re Qatar Islamic Insurance National Leasing Qatar Navigation Top Losers Al Khaleej Takaful Grp Ooredoo Qsc Commercial Bank Qsc Ezdan Holding Group QGMD Close Price 33.0 41.0 62.9 18.0 75.7 3.0 1.9 1.7 0.3 1.1 10.0 4.9 2.8 1.7 1.5 20.2 (12.8) 24.3 17.8 (20.8) 19.5 102.3 31.1 15.7 9.5 (1.0) (2.5) (0.6) (0.3) (0.2) (4.7) (2.4) (1.9) (1.9) (1.9) (7.4) 0.5 0.5 3.9 (5.7) Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 1.7 (19.6) (6.1) (3.8) (16.2) 0.0 0.0 7.1 474.1 132.2 48.5 16.3 14.8 177.1 12.1 (27.7) 121.0 14.2 68.3 (13.7) 90.2 (12.8) 1,686.2 (26.1) 57.5 38.1 15.0 39.7 22.9 NA Qatar DSM Index 60.0 11,000 40.0 10,411.8 10,500 10,000 17/Jan 20.0 31/Jan 14/Feb 28/Feb Index Volume (mn) 14/Mar 28/Mar 0.0 11/Apr Index Value Closing Level 3,056.6 6,407.9 3,296.7 4,334.9 2,381.8 1,247.4 2,314.9 1D Change (%) (0.5) 0.2 (0.4) 0.1 (1.3) (2.0) 0.8 Buy (%) 38.8 29.3 68.1 7.1 24.8 31.9 Sell (%) 34.0 31.0 65.0 8.9 26.1 35.0 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE April 12 , 2017 GLOBAL NEWS    The head of the Bank for International Settlements said that major central banks should prepare to normalize monetary policy as deflation risks have mostly disappeared from their economies and growth is picking up. (Source: Reuters) US increased anti-dumping duties on oil and gas drilling pipes from South Korea to a range of 2.8% to 24.9% from a previous range of about 4.0% to 6.5%. (Source: Reuters) UK retail sales dropped 0.7% YoY in March-17, majorly due to rising inflation. (Source: Bloomberg)  Dubai Islamic bank reported a rise in net profit by 4.0% YoY to AED 1.04bn in Q1-2017. Net revenue rose by 7.0% YoY to AED 1.8bn in Q117. (Source: The National)  Dubai based Damac Properties announced that Damac Towers by Paramount Hotels & Resorts, USD 1.0 bn project launched in 2013, is 85 % complete after originally due to open by the end of 2015. (Source: Arabian Business)  ADNOC Distribution, part of the ADNOC Group of Companies, is investing AED 750.0mn in a fuel depot located at the new Midfield Terminal of Abu Dhabi International Airport, CEO of ADNOC said. (Source: Zawya)  Abu Dhabi's state owned fund Mubadala has issued a USD 1.5bn bond comprising a 7 year USD 850.0mn tranche and a 12 year USD 650.0mn tranche. The 7 year bond has a coupon rate of 3.0% while the 12 year bond has a coupon of 3.75%. (Source: Zawya)  UK consumer prices increased by 2.3% YoY in March-17 due to weakening of the pound and the rise in oil prices. Food prices rose 1.2% YoY in March-17. (Source: Reuters)  Euro zone industrial output fell by 0.3% MoM in February-17, and rose by 1.2% YoY. The decline in output was largely due to a 4.7% decline in energy production, along with a 1.1% fall in output of non-durable consumer goods. (Source: Reuters)  Saudi Arabia’s total cement sales declined by 19% YoY but grew by 16% MoM to 4.7mn tons in March-17. Total inventory increased by 37% YoY and 1.2% MoM driven by mismatch in demand and supply representing 59% of LTM sales. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Chinese consumer prices rose at a subdued pace of 0.9% YoY, reflecting cheaper food, clothing and other manufactured goods.  Bahrain has to cut its spending to restore stability in its budget and improve investor confidence as it is the smallest economy among Gulf Arab monarchies which tries to manage the impact of lower oil prices, according to IMF. (Source: Arabian Business)  Kuwait based Alargan International Real Estate Company has repurchased bonds worth KWD 17.4mn (USD 57.4mn) after its coming to maturity. The bond, which was issued in April-12 was advanced to BBB rating in November-16. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Oman based National Life & General Insurance Company plans to offer 25% of its shares to public through IPO before August-17, the CEO of the company said. (Source: Times of Oman)  Oman based Muscat bank signed an agreement to provide Islamic project finance to Dar Al Tomouh company for chicken farming project in the wilayat of Nizwa. (Source: Times of Oman) (Source: Asia Times)  China auto sales grew 7.0% in the Q1-17, according to China's automakers association. Vehicle sales rose 4.0% YoY in March-17 to 2.5mn vehicles. (Source: Reuters)  Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said that he will continue with the central bank's quantitative easing and yield curve control policy to meet its 2.0% inflation target. (Source: Reuters)  Japanese bank lending rose 3.0% YoY in March-17. Outstanding loans held by the country's four main categories of banks stood at JPY 513.01tn. (Source: Reuters)  Turkey's current account deficit reached USD 2.5bn in February-17 up by USD 564mn YoY. The change was due to increase in foreign trade deficit. (Source: Daily Sabah) GCC NEWS  GCC debt capital market issuance set a record high in 2016 with regional sovereigns raising a total debt of USD 69.1bn. Though yields fell steeply in the first half they started to bounce during the summer months in 2016, according to Securities & Investment Company. QATAR NEWS  Qatar Central Bank is offering government bonds with interest rates of 2.75% for the three-year tranche, 3.35% for the five-year, 4% for the seven-year, and 4.5% for the 10-year paper. (Source: Qatar Tribune)  According to IMF Qatar’s public debt that is projected at nearly 48% of GDP at the end of 2016 remains manageable. Qatar government used borrowing mainly to finance the budget in 2016 and the fiscal deficit was financed through domestic and foreign borrowings. (Source: Gulf (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai PMI rose to 56.6 in March-17 from 56.2 in February-17 led by wholesale and retail, travel and tourism and construction industries. The pace of new business growth, which advanced for the 13th straight month, rose by the highest degree in over two years. (Source: Times)  The IMF has suggested that Qatar Central Bank to re-consider the implementation of the new loan-to-deposit ratio requirement, which is to become eff ective from the end of 2017. The new loan-to-deposit requirement to be set at 100%. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar and Kenya signed agreement on tourism, education, and culture. Kenya called for greater cooperation in the aviation sector. The National)      Dubai Aerospace Enterprise Ltd reported a decline in net income by 67% YoY to USD 199.0mn in 2016 despite rise in total revenue by 22% YoY to USD 417.8mn in 2016. (Source: Arabian Business) Dubai based Aster DM Healthcare has agreed to USD 295.0mn credit facility with India's Axis Bank. Aster had drawn USD 176.0mn from the facility of USD 276.0mn loan outstanding. (Source: Gulf Business) (Source: The Peninsula)  Trading on shares of Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development Company will remain suspended on 12th April 2017 as its AGM and EGM will be held, announced by QSE. (Source: QSE) (Source: Zawya)  Dubai based EFS Facilities Services has secured over USD 1.0bn worth international orders milestone. EFS also achieved robust revenue growth of 21% CAGR for the year 2011-16. (Source: Trade Arabia) QNB Group net profit increased 12% YoY to QAR 3.2bn in Q1-17. The total assets increased by 35% YoY to reach QAR 743bn, driven by a 33% growth in loans and advances. (Source: Arabian Business.com)  Real-time information analysis will fuel Qatar's urban income to USD 175bn by 2030, Ooredoo announced. Through technology innovations, Doha will rank among the top 20 cities increasing their household income to 2030, according to a recent report by Oxford Economics. (Source: Qatar Tribune) Dubai Chamber of Commerce & Industry and Google announced their partnership to assist local businesses get online and help them grow. Dubai based United World Infrastructure is planning to invest more than USD 500.0mn for development of new economic cluster and other real estate and infrastructure projects in Cairo, Egypt. (Source: Zawya) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE April 12 , 2017 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.0635 USD/QAR 3.6401 109.6200 EUR/QAR 3.8712 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.2521 JPY/QAR 0.0332 USD/CHF 1.0075 GBP/QAR 4.5578 USD/CAD 1.3325 CHF/QAR 3.6130 AUD/USD 0.7499 CAD/QAR 2.7318 NZD/USD 0.6959 AUD/QAR 2.7297 USD/INR 64.0000 INR/QAR 0.0569 USD/TRY 3.6975 TRY/QAR 0.9845 USD/ZAR 13.8071 ZAR/QAR 0.2636 USD/BRL 3.1374 BRL/QAR 1.1602 FX Commentary USD continued its downward trajectory against the basket of major currencies with dollar index down 0.3% on back of decline in yields, amidst geopolitical concerns. A risk-off mode in the market greatly benefitted JPY, which rose against most of the currencies. The EUR fell 1% against the yen as investors weighed the possibility of a face-off between far-right candidate Marine Le Pen and hard-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon, both of whom intend to hold a referendum on France’s exit for Eurozone. GBP gained against the greenback after UK CPI in March remained more than BoE’s target of 2%. The currency however fell against JPY, due to strength in latter. CAD ended flat against USD as a general risk aversion offset higher oil prices in range-bound trading ahead of a Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.93 0.95 0.99 1.16 1.80 (0.42) (0.38) (0.37) (0.33) (0.12) QAIBOR 1.44 1.54 1.73 1.97 2.70 4.0% SAIBOR NA 1.10 1.30 1.73 2.21 2.0% EIBOR 0.67 0.84 1.07 1.47 2.17 BMIBOR 0.83 1.03 1.50 1.85 2.53 NA NA 1.38 1.63 2.13 LIBOR EURIBOR KIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 6.0% 1.88% 1.23% 0.0% 2 Yrs 2.71% 2.97% 3.23% 1.82% 2.10% 2.28% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 5 Yrs Qatar 4.37% 2.92% 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 25.3 (1.2) Turkey 237.0 UK 28.4 (9.6) Brazil 223.6 (42.1) Germany 18.2 (0.8) Egypt 350.0 (130.7) 2.0% 1.56% 2.25% 2.08% 1.92% 2.52% 2.13% 1.0% 0.0% 0.87% 2 Yrs 1.64% 1.39% 1.19% 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs France Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change (20.4) 57.9 29.7 Abu Dhabi 40.5 (29.8) Italy 187.9 47.3 Bahrain 219.2 (166.4) Greece 916.0 (113.2) Dubai 110.8 (49.6) Russia 173.4 (64.7) Qatar 60.0 (31.3) Japan 26.1 (7.9) Saudi Arabia 95.4 (61.2) Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 11:30 UK Claimant Count Rate Mar - 2.10% 11:30 UK Jobless Claims Change Mar - (11.3k) 11:30 UK ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths Feb 4.70% 4.70% Apr-07th - (1.60%) Mar (0.20%) 0.20% 14:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications 15:30 US Import Price Index MoM 16:00 Russia CPI WoW Apr-10th - 0.10% 17:00 Canada Bank of Canada Rate Decision Apr-12th 0.50% 0.50% 21:00 US Monthly Budget Statement Mar (169.0b) (108.0b) 02:01 UK RICS House Price Balance Mar 22% 24% 02:50 Japan Money Stock M2 YoY Mar 4.20% 4.20% 02:50 Japan Money Stock M3 YoY Mar 3.60% 3.60% Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Boubyan Bank K.S.C NA NA NA 10.7 17.2 (6.9) Qatar National Bank 10,565.3 68.5 7.7 3,204.2 11.8 18.2 Dubai Islamic Bank 2,305.5 15.8 4.2 1,008.4 15.2 10.1 Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE April 12 , 2017 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS (As on 6th April 2017) Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 2.8 0.0 0.0 9.9 1.5 5.1 4.7 2.7 0.0 4.7 6.1 2.1 5.2 3.1 5.0 3.1 5.4 3.3 4.8 0.0 7.6 5.4 5.0 4.8 4.1 3.6 3.6 4.0 3.5 1.6 6.6 4.6 3.7 2.9 3.6 1.8 3.8 5.6 2.3 6.8 3.2 0.0 6.2 4.2 3.4 0.0 2.7 3.0 4.7 4.7 4.5 3.5 P/B Ratio (x) 1.4 0.8 2.5 0.8 2.7 0.9 2.5 0.9 1.0 1.7 1.7 2.3 1.0 1.8 1.4 2.7 2.4 1.4 1.9 1.5 0.7 3.8 0.8 1.7 1.2 1.4 2.0 1.3 2.9 3.0 1.4 1.7 1.9 1.0 0.8 2.4 0.5 2.7 1.5 0.8 1.4 1.1 0.7 1.1 1.5 1.7 1.5 2.0 1.4 0.6 1.0 1.6 P/E Ratio (x) 10.8 25.6 (H) (‫)م‬ 7.5 92.4 12.3 15.4 (H) (‫)م‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 11.2 12.6 11.1 22.9 12.1 6.8 42.3 16.8 43.8 15.2 (M) (‫)س‬ 10.6 12.7 7.0 13.2 19.9 78.1 22.7 18.8 15.4 27.6 11.1 10.9 19.9 39.5 11.6 19.2 15.6 14.8 18.2 8.9 23.1 21.0 11.5 15.8 15.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 22.6 15.0 12.3 12.0 12.5 14.8 EPS (QR) 3.2 1.3 0.1 4.1 0.7 1.2 2.8 0.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 9.1 5.2 13.4 0.4 5.5 11.7 2.3 10.0 0.7 8.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.0 5.1 12.8 5.8 0.7 0.4 4.9 0.8 14.0 2.2 4.1 7.3 2.3 0.5 1.4 3.7 2.5 4.2 3.1 4.1 0.7 0.7 1.8 1.2 6.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.6 3.5 1.7 6.2 2.6 3.0 BV/Share (QR) 24.3 39.7 9.1 36.3 25.2 16.8 16.9 20.6 9.0 60.3 37.5 65.0 9.8 36.8 56.5 36.1 70.1 21.6 70.7 6.5 14.7 16.8 108.5 43.9 12.5 20.4 55.4 11.4 75.2 20.4 32.7 47.2 24.8 21.1 21.5 29.7 72.8 23.0 36.4 46.9 11.4 13.2 30.8 17.3 69.3 5.6 23.1 25.9 15.4 123.9 33.3 27.4 Stock Price (QR) 34.1 33.3 22.5 30.5 67.0 14.6 42.6 18.7 8.6 102.1 65.1 148.5 9.7 79.9 98.0 166.8 30.0 134.7 10.0 10.6 64.4 89.9 14.6 28.2 110.7 14.9 215.8 61.4 45.4 79.2 20.6 16.8 71.4 39.1 62.6 36.6 15.8 14.2 20.3 103.5 9.4 52.7 21.2 74.6 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4