GCC Daily Market Update - 10 March

Transcription

1. March 10 , 2020 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) MSCI GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,746.6 23,851.0 7,948.0 5,965.8 10,625.0 4,707.9 103,524.0 19,698.8 25,040.5 2,943.3 35,635.0 (225.8) (2,013.8) (582.3) (496.8) (916.9) (431.2) (6,076.5) (1,051.0) (1,106.2) (91.2) (1,941.7) (7.6) (7.8) (6.8) (7.7) (7.9) (8.4) (5.5) (5.1) (4.2) (3.0) (5.2) (7.0) (6.1) (6.1) (9.3) (10.6) (11.3) (2.3) (6.8) (4.2) 2.2 (7.0) (15.0) (16.4) (9.0) (20.9) (19.8) (21.2) (9.5) (16.7) (11.2) (3.5) (13.6) 8,160.2 6,315.5 4,039.6 2,078.9 4,849.8 3,772.2 1,471.6 426.1 3,771.1 (877.0) (530.9) (354.3) (188.0) (457.1) (222.7) (91.0) (41.5) (256.0) (9.7) (7.8) (8.1) (8.3) (8.6) (5.6) (5.8) (8.9) (6.4) (14.0) (17.2) (17.6) (19.7) (20.1) (8.7) (11.4) (18.0) (5.3) (21.7) (24.7) (20.4) (24.8) (22.8) (5.2) (8.6) (25.2) (12.3) (10.9) (24.1) (10.2) (24.6) 0.1 4.1 3.3 0.2 (4.9) (1.9) (27.0) (25.7) 7.1 7.0 0.6 (44.1) (45.6) (17.6) 10.0 (8.4) 34.4 31.1 1.8 1,675.7 252.4 Global Global markets witnessed one of the largest 1-day drop yesterday, as coronavirus concerns continued to deter investor sentiments. Markets also declined, as oil prices dropped to multi-year low levels amid a price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia. The US markets nose-dived, with the S&P 500 index touching lower circuit level for the first time since 2008 crisis. The S&P 500 index retreated 7.6% and all sectors on the index ended deep in the red. Notable decliners on the index were Energy and Financial stocks The European market ended at an eight-month low. The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 7.4% to end at 339.5. All sectors ended lower with Mining, Automobile and Banking stock reported major losses. The Nikkei index declined by 5.1%. Mining and Iron & Steel stocks witnessed the largest selling pressure. GCC All GCC markets ended in red yesterday, as oil prices touched multi-year low, on the back of Saudi Arabia’s move to lower its selling prices. The Saudi Arabian index ended 7.8% lower. Software & Services and Capital Goods stocks witnessed the major fall. Dubai’s index fell 8.3%. Air Arabia fell 6.1%, after Saudi suspended travelling from UAE. Abu Dhabi’s index lost 8.1%. Dana Gas lost 10.0%, even after announcing that declining prices would not impact its gas selling prices. Qatar The QE index decreased by 9.7% yesterday, underperforming its regional peers. Selling pressure on part of foreign institutional investors weighed on the benchmark. Trade turnover and volumes increased, with Consumer Goods & Services, Banking & Financial Services and Real Estate together accounting for about 78.8% of the total volume. Out of 47 listed stocks, 46 exchanged hands, 2 advanced, 43 declined and 1 remained unchanged. Source: Bloomberg QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 13.1 1.2 4.7 141.9 DSM 20 12.0 1.2 4.9 124.1 10,400 GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Qatar DSM Index 11,200 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 17.6 1.4 4.2 1,745.3 9,600 UAE (ADX) 11.9 1.1 6.2 81.1 8,800 UAE (DFM) 7.5 0.7 5.6 96.6 8,000 12/Dec 200.0 8,160.2 100.0 0.0 26/Dec 9/Jan 23/Jan Index Volume (mn) Kuwait (KSE) 12.4 1.1 4.4 38.2 Oman (MSM) 7.7 0.7 7.9 6.7 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 10.4 0.9 4.9 3.2 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Qatari Investors Group Doha Insurance Co NA NA NA Top Losers Qatar National Bank Mannai Corporation Industries Qatar Vodafone Qatar Ooredoo Qpsc Close Price 1.3 1.1 NA NA NA 0.1 0.0 NA NA NA 7.0 1.8 NA NA NA (24.6) (5.0) NA NA NA (43.8) (7.7) NA NA NA 16.5 2.8 6.9 0.8 5.5 (1.8) (0.3) (0.8) (0.1) (0.6) (10.0) (10.0) (10.0) (10.0) (10.0) (20.0) (7.6) (32.5) (28.5) (22.0) (7.4) (42.0) (41.8) (46.7) (14.7) Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 395.5 12.7 242.7 11.6 NA NA NA NA NA NA 7,701.7 510.0 5,544.1 2,443.6 2,000.1 12.1 6.4 16.3 24.6 10.3 6/Feb 20/Feb Index Value 5/Mar Closing Level 3,609.5 6,276.8 2,074.6 2,073.4 1,134.4 713.6 2,087.7 1D Change (%) (9.6) (8.6) (9.5) (8.8) (9.8) (10.0) (9.8) Buy (%) 40.0 28.9 68.9 12.2 18.9 31.1 Sell (%) 27.5 21.9 49.4 10.5 40.1 50.6 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. March 10 , 2020 GLOBAL NEWS   Dubai-based banks Emirates NBD PJSC and Dubai Islamic Bank PJSC have acquired debt made to park operator, DXB Entertainments PJSC from other regional lenders at discount to support the company, according to confidential sources. (Source: Bloomberg)  Abu Dhabi witnessed 19,000 real estate transactions valued at AED 58.0bn (USD 15.8bn) in 2019, according to the Department of Municipalities and Transport. The value of mortgages reached AED 37.4bn (USD 10.2bn) through 8,663 transactions. (Source: Arabian Business)  Abu Dhabi-based Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) has entered into a new 3-year contract with Vietnam-based state-owned firm, Vinacomin to extend the supply of Vietnamese alumina to the UAE until 2023. The company will purchase up to 300,000 tons of alumina from Vinacomin annually. (Source: Arabian Business)  Sharjah-based Dana Gas announced that natural gas accounts for 75.0% of the company’s production, which is sold under long term gas sale contracts with host governments at prices which are unaffected by declining oil prices. The gas sales comprise 50.0% of the company’s income which can be sustained even in low oil price environments. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said that the world is likely to see the first annual decline in oil consumption in over a decade of 1.1mn barrels per day in 2020, due to the impact of coronavirus. (Source: News 18)  170,000 people. (Source: Emirates News Agency) The IMF’s Chief Economist said that government policymakers should implement significant targeted fiscal, monetary and financial market measures to fight the economic impact of the coronavirus. She suggested providing cash directly to households and businesses while interest rate cuts may be more effective after the business conditions normalize. (Source: US News)  The US President said that he will be taking key steps to protect the economy against the coronavirus outbreak which includes discussing a payroll tax cut with congressional Republicans. (Source: Reuters)  The Federal Reserve Bank of New York announced raising of daily cash injections to the banking system to guarantee sufficient supply of bank reserves. The daily overnight repurchase agreement operations will be increased to USD 150.0bn from USD 100.0bn and the 2-week operations on 10th and 12th March-20 will be increased to USD 45.0bn from the current level of USD 20.0bn. (Source: CNBC)  The Chief Executive of the European Union said that the UK needs to consider what compromise it wants to accept in trade talks with the bloc. The more market rules that the UK adheres the wider access it will have to the single market. (Source: Nasdaq)  Japan’s Finance Minister said that the economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak of the economy is not similar to a Lehman-like crisis, hence compiling a supplementary budget was not required now. The government will announce a second package of measure to cope with the spread of the epidemic today. (Source: Reuters)  Japan is likely to increase its special financing for SMEs impacted by the coronavirus to JPY 1.6tn (USD 15.6bn). The government will use public financial institutions including the Japan Finance Corporation and the Development Bank of Japan to disburse the financing. (Source: (Source: Emirates News Agency)  Saudi Polymer Company, a subsidiary of National Petrochemical Company (Petrochem) has signed a 4-year credit facility worth SAR 3.0bn (USD 799.3mn) with Samba Financial Group and Riyad Bank. The credit facility will be used to refinance an existing project financing loan. (Source: Zawya)  Oman Shipping Company formally announced the acquisition of two modern Ultramax Dry Bulk vessels, SBI Taurus and TR Omaha due for delivery in April and May-20. The vessels will join the company’s fleet of more than 50 vessels. (Source: Times of Oman)  Bahrain’s central bank has issued a directive to ban retail banks from freezing accounts of customers who have become unemployed or are retired. (Source: Bloomberg Quint)  The value of Kuwaiti non-oil exports contracted by 29.2% YoY to KWD 12.6mn (USD 41.2mn) in February-20, according to the Ministry of Commerce and Industry. The non-oil exports to GCC nations stood at KWD 6.1mn (USD 19.9mn). (Source: Zawya) Channel News Asia) GCC NEWS   Moody’s Investors Service stated that Chinese exports to Dubai will be impacted by the factory shutdowns across China and the subsequent impact on supply chains, as China is Dubai’s largest trading partner. Furthermore, the delayed effect of the extended outbreak of the coronavirus will be seen in shipping throughput data from March-20 onwards. (Source: Zawya) The global event for the Middle East inbound and outbound travel industry, Arabian Travel Market which is organized in Dubai has been postponed to between 29th June to 1st July-20, due to Coronavirus outbreak. (Source: Gulf News)  According to real estate expert, CBRE, student housing market is expected to grow fast in the UAE and specifically the Dubai due to several government initiatives. Dubai International Academic City is expected to add 3,000 rooms by the end of 2020. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai-based Regal Global Trading company, backed by the IBC group is planning to set up a factory in Dubai to manufacture affordable masks and medical kits, which will be shipped to coronavirus-impacted nations around the world. The company plans to produce 300,000 to 600,000 mask daily to be supplied to China, which has a potential demand of 1.0bn masks, per day. (Source: Arabian Business)  Dubai Asset Management has enhanced its presence in Dubai by acquiring 11 freehold developments to its community management portfolio. The deal raises the number of units managed by the company to over 41,000 across 21 communities that are home to over QATAR NEWS  Qatar has been ranked the highest in GCC in terms of ease of starting and developing a business in the National Entrepreneurship Context Index (NECI) 2019-20, created by Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM). (Source: Peninsula Qatar)  Qatar reported 7.1% MoM increase in building permits issuance in January-20 to 696, according to Planning and Statistics Authority. (Source: MDPS)  Dealmaker for the UK’s Department for International Trade’s Global Entrepreneur Program said that higher number of UK-based companies are setting up their businesses in Doha, particularly after the recent reforms in Qatar’s investments laws. 700 UK companies are registered in Doha from the UK embassy currently and 10 to 12 more are expected in the next three months. (Source: Peninsula Qatar)  The CEO of Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIB) said that the bank is not likely to issue any sukuk in 2020 as it has strong liquidity and a high capital adequacy ratio. The bank’s Chairman said that diversification of investments and financing portfolios in 2019 helped bank maintain stable growth. (Source: Peninsula Qatar)  Baladna has partnered with Widam Food, whereby the latter will supply 500.0 tons of veal meat to the local market. Widam, will start a new production line for meat, market and distribute it locally via different point of sales in the nation. (Source: Peninsula Qatar) 2
3. March 10 , 2020 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1480 USD/QAR 3.6415 102.3600 EUR/QAR 4.1804 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.3147 JPY/QAR 0.0356 USD/CHF 0.9252 GBP/QAR 4.7875 USD/CAD 1.3702 CHF/QAR 3.9359 AUD/USD 0.6587 CAD/QAR 2.6576 NZD/USD 0.6337 AUD/QAR 2.3987 USD/INR 73.5862 INR/QAR 0.0495 USD/TRY 6.1467 TRY/QAR 0.5924 USD/ZAR 16.0926 ZAR/QAR 0.2263 USD/BRL 4.7224 BRL/QAR 0.7711 FX Commentary The US dollar decreased against a basket of six currencies yesterday, with the dollar index closing 0.2% lower to settle at 95.2. Safe haven buying remained the theme of yesterday’s trading session. The GBP advanced to a one-month high against the sinking USD, amid rising expectations that the government’s budget would announce fiscal stimulus to prevent the economy from virus. The JPY and CHF continued to increase, as risk appetite globally got dampened by a crash in oil prices amid an already soft stock markets. The CAD decreased to a near three-year low against US, as the market anticipates further interest rate cuts from the Bank of Canada after the price of oil dropped. The AUD fell to 11-year lows, as the commodity-linked currency declined, against its safe haven counterpart USD. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 1.08 1.07 0.86 0.90 0.85 (0.56) (0.52) (0.50) (0.47) (0.35) QAIBOR 1.60 1.62 1.70 1.87 2.15 SAIBOR NA 1.33 1.36 1.42 1.42 EIBOR 0.94 0.93 1.13 1.42 1.25 BMIBOR 1.40 1.63 1.82 1.93 2.12 NA NA 2.25 2.50 3.00 LIBOR EURIBOR KIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Source: Bloomberg 2.6% 3.12% 1.52% 2.0% 0.38% 2.7% 2.8% 2 Yrs 2.03% 0.48% 0.56% 0.54% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 1.00% 5 Yrs Qatar 30 Yrs 0.6% 5 Yrs Current Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change US 20.1 2.5 Turkey 433.2 73.3 UK 31.5 (1.3) Brazil 187.7 48.9 Germany 19.7 8.5 Egypt 338.4 29.1 92.8 36.5 France 1.0% 0.5% 2 Yrs 1.79% 2.32% 0.0% 5 Years CDS 2.6% 2.5% 2.0% 0.0% 4.0% Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 3.0% Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 35.4 14.6 Abu Dhabi Italy 228.8 95.7 Bahrain 253.2 8.3 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% Greece 290.2 72.9 Dubai 133.6 (5.0) 7 Yrs 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Russia 182.1 94.1 Qatar 105.5 49.2 Japan 30.7 6.1 Saudi Arabia 162.2 84.3 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 9:00 Japan Machine Tool Orders YoY 10:45 France Industrial Production MoM Feb P -- (35.60%) Jan 1.80% 10:45 France (2.80%) Industrial Production YoY Jan (1.90%) 12:00 (3.00%) Italy Industrial Production MoM Jan 1.60% (2.70%) 12:00 Italy Industrial Production WDA YoY Jan (3.70%) (4.30%) 13:00 Eurozone GDP SA QoQ Q4 F 0.10% 0.10% 13:00 Eurozone GDP SA YoY Q4 F 0.90% 0.90% Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) Qatar & Oman Investment Co NA NA NA 5.1 NA QoQ (%) NA Southern Province Cement Co 396.4 65.2 38.6 162.1 214.0 79.5 Boubyan Petrochemicals Co 18.0 135.3 (10.9) 7.4 78.0 644.2 Al Tamdeen Investment Co NA NA NA (2.3) 420.6 NA Saudi Advanced Industries NA NA NA (3.5) NA NA Al-Ahsa Development Co. NA NA NA (7.0) NA NA Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. March 10 , 2020 th QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS (As on 5 March 2020) Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing Qatar First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Baladna Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Investment Holding Industries Qatar Mesaieed QAMCO Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Alkhaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 4.6 4.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.3 5.5 6.6 0.0 3.4 4.8 3.1 6.5 3.6 0.0 6.2 4.0 5.4 4.5 4.7 0.0 0.0 5.0 3.6 4.3 5.5 0.0 5.1 5.0 4.0 0.2 5.1 4.1 5.1 7.4 4.6 3.1 7.0 5.9 0.0 6.0 4.9 7.9 0.0 0.0 4.5 3.7 4.0 5.0 4.2 4.3 4.5 5.4 4.7 3.9 P/B Ratio (x) 1.3 1.1 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 2.2 0.5 1.0 2.1 2.2 2.4 0.5 2.0 1.0 0.6 1.9 2.2 1.0 2.0 1.8 0.3 3.1 2.3 1.6 0.6 0.7 0.5 1.4 1.4 0.6 1.7 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.2 0.8 0.5 1.0 0.4 2.5 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.5 1.3 0.4 0.8 1.3 P/E Ratio (x) 11.3 9.3 (M) 9.8 (H) 6.6 14.0 15.6 (M) 11.8 14.6 12.4 54.2 12.2 (M) 7.3 25.2 16.8 21.7 13.8 (M) (M) 13.8 16.1 16.8 14.3 55.7 6.7 18.8 18.3 40.9 11.9 11.3 11.7 15.4 16.9 14.1 11.7 12.7 (M) 12.8 36.3 7.5 29.3 22.2 9.3 12.1 11.7 29.4 13.1 10.9 12.3 11.7 11.9 13.4 EPS (QR) 0.3 0.5 (M) 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 (M) 1.3 0.6 1.6 0.0 0.7 (M) 0.4 0.3 0.9 0.1 1.2 (M) (M) 0.4 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 (M) 0.5 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.3 BV/Share (QR) 2.6 4.4 0.7 3.0 2.4 1.7 1.9 1.4 1.0 7.3 4.0 8.0 0.9 4.3 1.0 5.7 3.6 7.2 2.3 8.5 0.3 1.0 1.9 6.2 3.4 1.3 1.9 0.9 5.7 1.2 1.0 9.1 2.3 3.4 4.7 2.3 2.1 2.2 2.6 5.8 2.5 3.1 4.9 1.2 1.1 3.1 1.8 7.2 1.1 3.7 3.1 1.7 12.7 3.6 2.9 Stock Price (QR) 3.3 4.7 0.5 2.4 1.6 1.2 4.1 0.8 1.0 15.3 8.9 19.2 0.5 1.0 3.2 7.0 15.6 2.2 16.9 0.5 0.3 6.0 14.5 0.7 1.3 0.5 8.0 1.7 0.6 15.3 1.4 3.0 4.1 1.6 1.1 2.5 2.2 6.2 3.2 0.5 0.6 1.1 6.3 1.0 4.7 2.2 5.6 - Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫ا س ت ثمار ال قاب ضة‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫قامكو‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above-mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4