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Turkey: Survey of Expectations - November 2018

IM Insights
By IM Insights
5 years ago
Turkey: Survey of Expectations - November 2018


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  1. SURVEY OF EXPECTATIONS November 2018
  2. Survey of Expectations | November 2018 Survey of Expectations Table 1: Participants Participants Responses Real Sector 9 Business Organizations 2 Holdings 7 Financial Sector 57 Banks 37 Non-Bank Financial Sector 20 Professionals 4 Academy Members 2 Journalists 1 Other Professionals 1 Total 70 Inflation Expectations Monthly Inflation Expectations Graph 2: Monthly CPI Inflation Expectations by Survey Periods (%) Graph 1: Monthly CPI Inflation Expectations (%) 2nd Month Ahead September-18 October-18 November-18 November 2018 2.40 2.20 2.00 1.80 1.60 1.40 1.20 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 11.18 10.18 09.18 08.18 07.18 06.18 05.18 04.18 03.18 02.18 01.18 12.17 11.17 2.40 2.20 2.00 1.80 1.60 1.40 1.20 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 January 2019 Next Month December 2018 Current Month Annual Inflation Expectations Graph 3: Annual CPI Inflation Expectations (%) End of the Current Year End of the Next 12 Months End of the Next 24 Months 26.00 24.00 22.00 20.00 18.00 16.00 14.00 12.00 10.00 8.00 11.18 10.18 09.18 08.18 07.18 06.18 05.18 04.18 03.18 02.18 01.18 12.17 11.17 6.00 2
  3. Survey of Expectations | November 2018 12-Month Ahead Inflation Expectations Graph 4: Probability Distribution of 12-Month Ahead CPI Inflation Expectations (%) Graph 5: Distribution of Point Estimates for 12-Month Ahead CPI Inflation (%) 30 30 25 25 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 <13.00 13.0013.99 14.0014.99 15.0015.99 16.0016.99 17.0017.99 18.0018.99 19.00- ≥ 20.00 19.99 0 <13.00 13.0013.99 14.0014.99 15.0015.99 16.0016.99 17.0017.99 18.0018.99 19.00- ≥ 20.00 19.99 24-Month Ahead Inflation Expectations Graph 6: Probability Distribution of 24-Month Ahead CPI Inflation Expectations (%) Graph 7: Distribution of Point Estimates for 24-Month Ahead CPI Inflation (%) 20 20 18 18 16 16 14 14 12 12 10 10 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 <9.0 9.00- 10.00- 11.00- 12.00- 13.00- 14.00- 15.00- 16.00- ≥ 17.00 9.99 10.99 11.99 12.99 13.99 14.99 15.99 16.99 0 <9.0 9.009.99 10.00- 11.00- 12.00- 13.00- 14.00- 15.00- 16.00- ≥ 17.00 10.99 11.99 12.99 13.99 14.99 15.99 16.99 3
  4. Survey of Expectations | November 2018 Graph 8: Weighted Average Cost of the CBRT Funding and BIST Repo and Reverse Repo Overnight Interest Rate (%) Graph 9: Interest Rate of GDDS with Maturity of About Three Months (%) Weighted Average Cost of the CBRT Funding (Current Month) BIST Repo and Reverse Repo Overnight Interest Rate (End of the Current Month) October-18 November-18 28.00 26.00 24.00 24.00 4.00 12.00 0.00 11.18 10.18 09.18 08.18 07.18 06.18 05.18 04.18 03.18 02.18 01.18 12.17 11.17 10.00 Graph 10: Long-Term Interest Rate Expectations (%) 24-Month Ahead 8.00 14.00 12-Month Ahead 12.00 16.00 6-Month Ahead 16.00 18.00 3-Month Ahead 20.00 1-Month Ahead 20.00 Current Month 22.00 Graph 11: One-week CBRT Repo Aution Interest Rate (%) October-18 Interest Rate of GDDS with Maturity of About 5 Years (12 Months Ahead) November-18 28.00 Interest Rate of GDDS with Maturity of About 10 Years (12 Months Ahead) 24.00 8.00 14.00 4.00 12.00 0.00 11.18 10.18 09.18 08.18 07.18 06.18 05.18 04.18 03.18 02.18 01.18 12.17 24-Month Ahead 16.00 12-Month Ahead 12.00 6-Month Ahead 16.00 18.00 3-Month Ahead 20.00 Current Month 20.00 10.00 11.17 24.00 22.00 4
  5. Survey of Expectations | November 2018 Graph 12. US Dollar Rate Expectations ($/TL) End of the Current Year End of the Current Month End of the Next 12 Months 7.50 7.00 6.50 6.00 5.50 5.00 4.50 4.00 3.50 11.18 10.18 09.18 08.18 07.18 06.18 05.18 04.18 03.18 02.18 01.18 12.17 11.17 3.00 Current Account Balance Expectations 12.18 11.18 10.18 09.18 08.18 07.18 06.18 05.18 04.18 03.18 02.18 -25.0 01.18 Graph 14: Current Account Balance Expectations for 2019 (Billion US Dollars) 11.18 10.18 09.18 08.18 07.18 06.18 05.18 04.18 03.18 02.18 01.18 12.17 11.17 Graph 13: Current Account Balance Expectations for 2018 (Billion US Dollars) -25.0 -30.0 -30.0 -35.0 -35.0 -40.0 -40.0 -45.0 -45.0 -50.0 -50.0 -55.0 -55.0 -60.0 -60.0 5
  6. Survey of Expectations | Graph 15: GDP Growth Rate Expectations for 2018 (%) November 2018 Graph 16: GDP Growth Rate Expectations for 2019 (%) 5.0 5.0 4.0 4.0 3.0 3.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 12.18 11.18 10.18 09.18 08.18 07.18 06.18 05.18 04.18 03.18 02.18 0.0 01.18 11.18 10.18 09.18 08.18 07.18 06.18 05.18 04.18 03.18 02.18 01.18 12.17 11.17 0.0     The Survey of Expectations is conducted on a monthly basis with a panel of 96 participants consisting of 76 experts from the financial sector, 12 experts from the real sector and 8 professionals.    Expectations denote the modified mean for each variable. The methodology and results are available at the web site http://www.tcmb.gov.tr under the menu “Statistics/Tendency Surveys/Survey of Expectations” . Historical results are also released under the menu “Statistics/Statistical Data (EDDS)/Surveys” .     The survey results are compiled from the responses of the participants and do not reflect the views or predictions of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. 6
  7. Survey of Expectations | November 2018 Survey of Expectations Aggregated Results (*) Monthly Inflation What is your expectation of the CPI? (%) Annual Inflation Current Month Next Month 2nd Month Ahead 0.88 0.77 1.71 End of the Year (January-December) 24.45 Next 12 Months 17.38 What is your expectation of the US Dollar rate in the interbank foreign exchange market? (Turkish Lira-TRY) (Please indicate in four decimals) End of the Next 24 Months 12.97 End of the Next 5 Years 8.84 End of the Next 10 Years 7.27 End of the Current Month 5.5096 End of the Year End of the Next 12 Months 6.3709 5.6405 Next Year Current Year (January-December) (January-December -36.7 -29.8 What is your expectation of the annual current account balance? ( (+)Surplus, (-)Deficit ) ($ Billion) Current Year Next Year (January-December) (January-December What is your expectation of the GDP growth rate? ( (+) Increase, (-) Decrease ) (%) End of the Current Month What is your expectation of the weighted average cost of the CBRT funding? (%) 24.00 3.1 1.6 3-Month Ahead 24.00 12-Month Ahead 20.80 End of the Current Month 23.93 What is your expectation of the Borsa Istanbul (BIST) Repo and Reverse Repo Market overnight interest rate? (%) End of the Current Month 24.00 3-Month Ahead 24.00 End of the Current 1-Month Ahead 21.71 21.79 What is your expectation of one-week CBRT repo auction interest rate? (%) What is your expectation of Annually Compounded Interest Rate of TRY Denominated GDDS with Maturity of About Three Months? (% ) 6-Month Ahead 23.33 12-Month Ahead 20.70 24-Month Ahead 16.75 3-Month Ahead 6-Month Ahead 12-Month Ahead 24-Month Ahead 21.72 20.96 19.26 16.07 What is your expectation of the Secondary Market Annually Compounded Interest Rate of Fixed Rate TRY Denominated GDDS with Maturity of About Five Years? (%) 12-Month Ahead What is your expectation of the Secondary Market Annually Compounded Interest Rate of Fixed Rate TRY Denominated GDDS with Maturity of About Ten Years? (%) 12-Month Ahead 17.83 16.81 (*) The figures denote the modified means. 7