Turkey: Survey of Expectations - March 2019

Transcription

1. SURVEY OF EXPECTATIONS March 2019
2. Survey of Expectations | March 2019 Survey of Expectations Table 1: Participants Participants Responses Real Sector 11 Business Organizations 2 Holdings 9 Financial Sector 59 Banks 40 Non-Bank Financial Sector 19 Professionals 4 Academy Members 1 Journalists 1 Other Professionals 2 Total 74 Inflation Expectations Monthly Inflation Expectations Graph 2: Monthly CPI Inflation Expectations by Survey Periods (%) Graph 1: Monthly CPI Inflation Expectations (%) Current Month Next Month 2nd Month Ahead January-19 2.40 February-19 March-19 2.00 2.00 1.60 1.60 1.20 1.20 0.80 0.80 0.40 0.40 April 2019 March 2019 03.19 02.19 01.19 12.18 11.18 10.18 09.18 08.18 07.18 06.18 05.18 04.18 03.18 May 2019 0.00 0.00 Annual Inflation Expectations Graph 3: Annual CPI Inflation Expectations (%) End of the Current Year End of the Next 12 Months End of the Next 24 Months 26.00 24.00 22.00 20.00 18.00 16.00 14.00 12.00 10.00 8.00 03.19 02.19 01.19 12.18 11.18 10.18 09.18 08.18 07.18 06.18 05.18 04.18 03.18 6.00 2
3. Survey of Expectations | March 2019 12-Month Ahead Inflation Expectations Graph 4: Probability Distribution of 12-Month Ahead CPI Inflation Expectations (%) Graph 5: Distribution of Point Estimates for 12-Month Ahead CPI Inflation (%) 25 25 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 <12.00 12.0012.99 13.0013.99 14.0014.99 15.0015.99 16.0016.99 17.0017.99 18.00- ≥ 19.00 18.99 0 <12.00 12.0012.99 13.0013.99 14.0014.99 15.0015.99 16.0016.99 17.0017.99 18.00- ≥ 19.00 18.99 24-Month Ahead Inflation Expectations Graph 6: Probability Distribution of 24-Month Ahead CPI Inflation Expectations (%) Graph 7: Distribution of Point Estimates for 24-Month Ahead CPI Inflation (%) 25 30 25 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 0 <8.0 8.00- 9.00- 10.00- 11.00- 12.00- 13.00- 14.00- 15.00- 16.00- ≥ 17.00 8.99 9.99 10.99 11.99 12.99 13.99 14.99 15.99 16.99 5 0 <8.0 8.00- 9.00- 10.00- 11.00- 12.00- 13.00- 14.00- 15.00- 16.00- ≥ 17.00 8.99 9.99 10.99 11.99 12.99 13.99 14.99 15.99 16.99 3
4. Survey of Expectations | March 2019 Graph 8: Weighted Average Cost of the CBRT Funding and BIST Repo and Reverse Repo Overnight Interest Rate (%) Graph 9: Interest Rate of GDDS with Maturity of About Three Months (%) Weighted Average Cost of the CBRT Funding (Current Month) BIST Repo and Reverse Repo Overnight Interest Rate (End of the Current Month) February-19 March-19 25.00 26.00 24.00 20.00 22.00 15.00 20.00 18.00 10.00 16.00 5.00 14.00 12.00 Graph 10: Long-Term Interest Rate Expectations (%) 24-Month Ahead 12-Month Ahead 6-Month Ahead 3-Month Ahead 1-Month Ahead 0.00 Current Month 03.19 02.19 01.19 12.18 11.18 10.18 09.18 08.18 07.18 06.18 05.18 04.18 03.18 10.00 Graph 11: One-week CBRT Repo Aution Interest Rate (%) February-19 Interest Rate of GDDS with Maturity of About 5 Years (12 Months Ahead) March-19 25.00 Interest Rate of GDDS with Maturity of About 10 Years (12 Months Ahead) 24.00 20.00 22.00 20.00 15.00 18.00 10.00 16.00 5.00 14.00 12.00 24-Month Ahead 12-Month Ahead 6-Month Ahead 3-Month Ahead Current Month 03.19 02.19 01.19 12.18 11.18 10.18 09.18 08.18 07.18 06.18 05.18 04.18 03.18 10.00 0.00 4
5. Survey of Expectations | March 2019 Graph 12. US Dollar Rate Expectations ($/TL) End of the Current Year End of the Current Month End of the Next 12 Months 7.50 7.00 6.50 6.00 5.50 5.00 4.50 4.00 3.50 03.19 02.19 01.19 12.18 11.18 10.18 09.18 08.18 07.18 06.18 05.18 04.18 03.18 3.00 Current Account Balance Expectations 12.19 11.19 10.19 09.19 08.19 07.19 06.19 05.19 04.19 03.19 02.19 0.0 01.19 Graph 14: Current Account Balance Expectations for 2020 (Billion US Dollars) 03.19 02.19 01.19 12.18 11.18 10.18 09.18 08.18 07.18 06.18 05.18 04.18 03.18 Graph 13: Current Account Balance Expectations for 2019 (Billion US Dollars) 0.0 -10.0 -10.0 -20.0 -20.0 -30.0 -30.0 -40.0 -40.0 -50.0 -50.0 -60.0 -60.0 5
6. Survey of Expectations | Graph 15: GDP Growth Rate Expectations for 2019 (%) March 2019 Graph 16: GDP Growth Rate Expectations for 2020 (%) 5.0 5.0 4.0 4.0 3.0 3.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 12.19 11.19 10.19 09.19 08.19 07.19 06.19 05.19 04.19 03.19 02.19 0.0 01.19 03.19 02.19 01.19 12.18 11.18 10.18 09.18 08.18 07.18 06.18 05.18 04.18 03.18 0.0     The Survey of Expectations is conducted on a monthly basis with a panel of 96 participants consisting of 76 experts from the financial sector, 12 experts from the real sector and 8 professionals.    Expectations denote the modified mean for each variable. The methodology and results are available at the web site http://www.tcmb.gov.tr under the menu “Statistics/Tendency Surveys/Survey of Expectations” . Historical results are also released under the menu “Statistics/Statistical Data (EDDS)/Surveys” .     The survey results are compiled from the responses of the participants and do not reflect the views or predictions of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. 6
7. Survey of Expectations | March 2019 Survey of Expectations Aggregated Results (*) Monthly Inflation What is your expectation of the CPI? (%) Annual Inflation Current Month Next Month 2nd Month Ahead 0.94 1.54 1.11 End of the Year (January-December) 15.64 Next 12 Months 15.24 What is your expectation of the US Dollar rate in the interbank foreign exchange market? (Turkish Lira-TRY) (Please indicate in four decimals) End of the Next 24 Months 11.80 End of the Next 5 Years 8.49 End of the Next 10 Years 7.26 End of the Current Month 5.4751 End of the Year End of the Next 12 Months 6.2996 6.0615 Next Year Current Year (January-December) (January-December -21.4 -26.3 What is your expectation of the annual current account balance? ( (+)Surplus, (-)Deficit ) ($ Billion) Current Year Next Year (January-December) (January-December What is your expectation of the GDP growth rate? ( (+) Increase, (-) Decrease ) (%) End of the Current Month What is your expectation of the weighted average cost of the CBRT funding? (%) 24.00 1.2 3.2 3-Month Ahead 22.50 12-Month Ahead 18.35 End of the Current Month 23.39 What is your expectation of the Borsa Istanbul (BIST) Repo and Reverse Repo Market overnight interest rate? (%) End of the Current Month 24.00 3-Month Ahead 22.63 End of the Current 1-Month Ahead 20.83 20.43 What is your expectation of one-week CBRT repo auction interest rate? (%) What is your expectation of Annually Compounded Interest Rate of TRY Denominated GDDS with Maturity of About Three Months? (% ) 6-Month Ahead 20.56 12-Month Ahead 18.35 24-Month Ahead 15.00 3-Month Ahead 6-Month Ahead 12-Month Ahead 24-Month Ahead 19.71 18.59 17.32 14.48 What is your expectation of the Secondary Market Annually Compounded Interest Rate of Fixed Rate TRY Denominated GDDS with Maturity of About Five Years? (%) 12-Month Ahead What is your expectation of the Secondary Market Annually Compounded Interest Rate of Fixed Rate TRY Denominated GDDS with Maturity of About Ten Years? (%) 12-Month Ahead 15.69 14.90 (*) The figures denote the modified means. 7