Turkey: Financial Services Statistics and Financial Services Confidence Index - February 2019

Transcription

1. Financial Services Statistics and Financial Services Confidence Index February 2019
2. Financial Services Statistics and Financial Services Confidence Index (FSCI) | February 2019 Financial Services Statistics and Financial Services Confidence Index (FSCI) Graph 1: Financial Services Confidence Index (FSCI) 200 190 180 170 160 131.2 150 140 130 120 110 02.19 07.18 01.18 07.17 01.17 07.16 01.16 07.15 01.15 07.14 01.14 07.13 01.13 100 FSCI=100: A stable outlook in the financial services sector FSCI>100: An optimistic outlook in the financial services sector FSCI<100: A pessimistic outlook in the financial services sector Graph 3: Demand For Services (Turnover) for the Last Three Months (Balance) Graph 2: Business Situation for the Last Three Months (Balance) 100 100 90 90 80 80 70 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 02.19 07.18 01.18 07.17 01.17 07.16 01.16 01.13 07.15 0 01.15 10 -10 07.14 20 0 01.14 30 10 07.13 20 02.19 07.18 01.18 07.17 01.17 07.16 01.16 07.15 01.15 07.14 01.14 07.13 01.13 30 Graph 4: Demand For Services (Turnover) Expectations for the Next Three Months (Balance) 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 02.19 07.18 01.18 07.17 01.17 07.16 01.16 07.15 01.15 07.14 01.14 07.13 01.13 0 Balance: Difference between percentage of “positive” (increased, will increase, improved, will improve) responses and percentage of “negative” (decreased, will decrease, deteriorated, will deteriorate) responses. 2
3. Financial Services Statistics and Financial Services Confidence Index (FSCI) Graph 5: Employment for the Last Three Months (Balance) | February 2019 Graph 6: Employment for the Next Three Months (Balance) 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 02.19 07.18 01.18 07.17 01.17 07.16 01.16 07.15 01.15 07.14 01.14 07.13 01.13 02.19 07.18 01.18 07.17 01.17 07.16 01.16 07.15 01.15 07.14 01.14 07.13 01.13 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 Table 1: FSS Developments in Aggregated Results (*) Periodicity Business Situation Monthly Demand For Services (Turnover) Monthly Employment Monthly Last Three Months Next Three Months (*) Short arrows indicate monthly changes, while long arrows indicate annual changes. Blue coloured arrows represent increases and red coloured arrows represent decreases. 3
4. Financial Services Statistics and Financial Services Confidence Index (FSCI) | February 2019 Graph 7. Confidence Indices by Sub-Sectors in the Financial and Insurance Activities 64-Financial Service Activities, Except Insurance and Pension Funding (*) 65-Insurance, Reinsurance and Pension Funding, Except Compulsory Social Security (**) 66-Activities Auxiliary to Financial Services and Insurance Activities (***) 200 175 150 125 100 02.19 07.18 01.18 07.17 01.17 07.16 01.16 07.15 01.15 07.14 01.14 07.13 01.13 75 (*) Banks, leasing, factoring ve financing companies are covered. (**) Insurance and pension funding companies are covered. (***) Brokerage firms are covered.     Financial Services Statistics and Financial Services Confidence Index has been carried out as part of the "Joint Harmonized European Union Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys" and published as part of the "Official Statistics Programme (OSP)" based on the Statistics Law of Turkey.     Financial Services Confidence Index is based on the responses given to the Financial Services Survey of the CBRT conducted with the institutions operating in the financial sector . Aggregated results and methodological information are available at the web site http://www.tcmb.gov.tr under the menu Statistics/Tendency Surveys/Financial Services Survey and Financial Services Confidence Index. In addition, time series data can be reached at “Statistics/Statistical Data (EDDS)/Surveys”.       The survey results are compiled from the responses of the participants and do not reflect the views or predictions of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. 4
5. Financial Services Statistics and Financial Services Confidence Index (FSCI)| February 2019 Financial Services Survey Weighted Aggregated Results (Balance Values) JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER 44.9 43.7 66.6 55.6 59.3 61.9 63.2 33.9 27.2 -4.4 89.6 52.3 67.5 74.0 83.3 75.1 59.6 53.5 53.6 10.0 62.5 58.8 58.5 48.6 59.1 48.6 40.2 25.5 39.5 48.7 6.7 -3.7 -8.1 9.1 7.1 -9.9 5.6 1.3 -3.9 -3.7 22.5 11.3 26.1 22.5 15.7 12.2 -12.2 -2.8 6.4 -2.5 How has your business situation developed over the past 3 months? 2018 56.3 57.1 2019 9.6 6.6 How has demand (turnover) for your company’s services changed over the past 3 months? 2018 83.9 80.6 2019 20.6 23.0 How do you expect the demand (turnover) for your company’s services to change over the next 3 months? 2018 58.2 60.7 2019 50.2 64.0 How has your firm’s total employment changed over the past 3 months? 2018 -3.1 -12.2 2019 0.6 -4.8 How do you expect your firm’s total employment to change over the next 3 months? 2018 19.3 21.8 2019 -4.0 -5.2 How has your operating income developed over the last 3 months? 2018 72.6 2019 22.1 How do you expect your operating income to develop over the next 3 months? 2018 40.6 2019 44.1 How have your operating expenses developed over the last 3 months? 2018 74.5 2019 20.5 How do you expect your operating expenses to develop over the next 3 months? 2018 37.8 2019 42.8 How has the profitability of your company developed over the last 3 months? 2018 35.9 2019 6.4 How do you expect the profitability of your company to develop over the next 3 months? 2018 55.2 2019 23.4 How has your capital expenditure developed over the last 3 months? 2018 34.8 2019 34.4 How do you expect your capital expenditure to develop over the next 3 months? 2018 36.3 2019 5.8 How has your competitive position on the domestic market developed over the past 3 months? 2018 30.6 2019 29.2 How has your competitive position on foreign markets inside the EU developed over the past 3 months? 2018 20.3 2019 26.7 How has your competitive position on foreign markets outside the EU developed over the past 3 months? 2018 20.4 2019 26.9 How do you expect the competitive position on the domestic market to develop over the next 3 months? 2018 42.2 2019 31.3 How do you expect the competitive position on foreign markets inside the EU to develop over the next 3 months? 2018 11.3 2019 10.3 How do you expect the competitive position on foreign markets outside the EU to develop over the next 3 months? 2018 11.3 2019 10.3 44.7 67.6 47.8 43.0 37.8 15.7 12.2 57.1 49.7 47.2 43.2 68.6 40.6 20.8 -21.4 43.0 37.7 16.7 17.2 34.3 33.8 31.4 43.2 41.8 33.3 42.5 27.0 8.5 -0.8 -4.0 9.3 -0.5 -4.3 39.1 40.0 29.2 9.2 -0.9 8.3 9.6 -0.5 8.7 5