Qatar Monthly Monitor - August 2018

Transcription

1. QNB Qatar Monthly Monitor August 2018
2. Highlights • The fiscal account moved into a surplus in Q1 as revenue picked up in line with higher oil prices • Exports grew 46% y/y in July as a result of higher oil prices, while imports grew 50% y/y reflecting last July’s low base • QCB foreign exchange reserves ticked up to USD45.2bn in June, equating to 7 months of import cover 2
3. Economic Activity Real GDP growth slowed in Q1 thanks to a further fall in hydrocarbon output . Non-hydrocarbon GDP growth was a solid 4.9% y/y (% year on year) Hydrocarbon Non-Hydrocarbon Total 8 6 3.6 4 1.9 1.9 3.3 1.2 2 1.5 0.8 Booming construction output, up 17.2% y/y, remained the key driver of activity in the non-hydrocarbon sector. Manufacturing gained 3% y/y (% year on year) Manufacturing Construction 25 Finance and Real Estate Other Overall Non-hydrocarbon 15 1.4 0.7 4.1 5 0 4.6 4.3 4.9 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 2.3 -2 -4 Q1 17 -5 Q1 16 Q3 16 Q1 17 Q3 17 Q1 18 CPI Inflation was broadly flat at 0.2% y/y in July; food inflation dropped due to the base effect from last year; deflation in housing costs moderated (% year on year) Total 8 Food and Beverages Q2 17 Housing and Utilities Brent crude prices slipped to an average of USD75/b in July; Qatar’s oil production rose to 601kb/d in May from 578kb/d prior (average prices (USD/b), left axis; Oil production (k b/d), right axis) 90 Oil Production 800 Brent Oil Price 80 600 6 70 4 2 60 0 50 -2 40 400 200 -4 30 -6 0 Jul-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jul-18 Sources: Ministry of Development Planning and Statistics (MDPS), Intercontinental Exchange, Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI), Bloomberg, Haver Analytics, QNB Economics 3
4. Economic Activity Qatar ’s population increased 0.9% y/y to stand at 2.45m in July; women made up close to 22% of the population (m, male and female right axis; % year on year, left axis) 12 Male Female 2.5 8 2.0 6 1.5 4 1.0 2 0.5 0 -2 0.0 Mar-17 Nov-17 Mining Industrial Production Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 5-star and 4-star hotel occupancy rates dipped slightly in July to stand at 55% and 60% respectively (%, occupancy rate) (Index, left axis; % year on year, right axis) 80 Growth rate 325 Manufacturing 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 -2.0 -4.0 -6.0 Jul-18 The real estate price index slipped back further in June QCB Real Estate Index (% year on year) 3.0 Growth Rate 10 Jul-16 Industrial production rose 4.7% y/y in May from 1.4% the previous month 5-Star 4-Star 5 0 -5 275 70 60 -10 -15 225 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 -20 Jun-18 Sources: MDPS, Qatar Central Bank (QCB), Haver Analytics, QNB Economics 50 40 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 4
5. Fiscal and External Balances The fiscal account turned to a surplus in Q1 as revenue rose in line with higher oil prices (% of GDP) Revenue Expenditure Exports grew 46% y/y in July as a result of higher oil prices, while imports grew 50% y/y due to the base effect from last year (bn USD) Budget Balance Exports Imports Trade Balance 8 70 6 20 0.6 -0.6 -18.0 -30 -5.5 -4.2 4 -7.0 -6.6 2 0 -80 Q3 16 Q1 17 Q3 17 Jun-16 Q1 18 The current account surplus widened to 7.3% of GDP in Q1, while the financial account deficit narrowed (bn USD, Balances, left axis; bn USD, change in Overall Balance, right axis) Current Account Balance Capital and Financial Account Balance Overall Balance 5 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 QCB foreign exchange reserves rose 0.9% m/m to reach USD45.2bn in June, equating to 7 months of import cover (bn USD; Reserves, left axis; Months of Import Cover, right axis) Total Reserves* Months of Import Cover 55 10 9 5 45 0 8 0 7 -5 -5 -10 35 6 5 -15 -10 Q1 16 Q3 16 Q1 17 Q3 17 Q1 18 *International Reserves and Other Foreign Currency Liquidity Sources: MDPS, QCB, Haver Analytics, QNB Economics 25 4 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 5
6. Money and Banking Bank asset growth was 6 .6% y/y in June Credit growth was 6.0% y/y in June (bn USD and % year on year) (bn USD and % year on year) Assets (left axis) Growth rate (right axis) 420 Loans (left axis) 15 300 10 240 Growth rate (right axis) 20 360 15 300 10 240 5 180 0 Jun-18 120 5 180 120 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Bank deposit growth was 6.2% y/y in June Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Deposits from the non-resident and public sector grew 7.1% and 8.9% m/m respectively in June, while the private sector declined 0.7% m/m (% of total) (bn USD and % year on year) Deposits (left axis) 0 Jun-16 Private sector Growth rate (right axis) 240 25 60 20 50 15 180 Public sector Non-resident 40 30 10 5 120 0 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Sources: QCB, Haver Analytics, QNB Economics Jun-18 20 10 0 Jun-17 Oct-17 Feb-18 Jun-18 6
7. Money and Banking Broad money supply (M2) grew by 10.2% y/y in June Interbank rates steady despite higher US short-term rates (bn USD and % year on year) (%, latest data 16th August) Total (left axis) 180 Growth Rate (right axis) 25 20 160 15 10 140 120 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 2.5 2 1.5 1 0 0.5 -10 Jun-18 QIBOR Overnight Rate 3 5 -5 100 QIBOR 3M 0 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 Jun-18 Qatar Sovereign 5-year CDS Spreads QIBOR and LIBOR 3-month interest rates (Basis points, latest data 16th August) (%, latest data 16th August) 130 QIBOR USD LIBOR 120 USDQIBOR LIBOR 4.0 3 2.5 3.0 2 110 100 90 1.5 2.0 1 1.0 0.5 80 70 60 Jul-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Sources: Bloomberg, QCB, Haver Analytics, QNB Economics 0.0 0 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 Jun-18 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18 7
8. Latest Publications QNB Economics Weekly Commentary Vietnam – Asia’s newest ‘tiger’ economy – roars in 2018 Bank of Japan stays the course Indonesia’s policy pause unlikely to last long Global growth peaks out as downside risks mount Opening shots fired, global trade war looks a real risk OPEC deal looks to maintain oil’s sweet spot Should we worry about a US recession? Kuwait’s growth to recover on higher oil prices, an expansionary budget and higher project spending Qatar enjoys reflationary updraft Bank Indonesia gets ahead of the curve China growth is expected to slow on policy tightening QNB Economics Insight Report Kuwait 2018 China 2018 Turkey 2017 Qatar December 2017 Indonesia 2017 Singapore 2017 8
9. This report is produced by the QNB Economics Team . For questions, or to receive the report by email each month, please contact: QNB Economics Tel: (+974) 4453 4450 economics@qnb.com DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNB Economics at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that are believed to be reliable, we have not independently verified all such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, no warranties are provided as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and any liability in that respect is declined. QNB reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. They may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: This report is distributed on a complimentary basis to valued business partners of QNB. It may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission 9