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Pakistan: Inflation Monitor - August 2022

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Pakistan: Inflation Monitor - August 2022

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  1.   Inflation Monitor  August 2022 State Bank of Pakistan Data Services and Innovations Department 
  2. 1     ISSN 1992-8327 (print) ISSN 1992-8335 (online) The analysis in this document is based on data   Provided by Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), for domestic inflation analysis Retrieved from Bloomberg, Trading Economics, IMF & World Bank websites for global inflation analysis For feedback and queries: feedback.statistics@sbp.org.pk    
  3. 2   Inflation Monitor, August 2022 Table of Contents 1. Inflation in Brief .................................................................................................................................................................... 5 2. Heat Maps of CPI inflation .................................................................................................................................................. 7 3. Trends in Inflation .............................................................................................................................................................. 11 4. Movement in Price Indices (Moving Averages) ................................................................................................................ 12 5. Movement in Price Indices (Month-on-Month) ................................................................................................................ 13 6. Trends in Consumer Price Indices and Inflation.............................................................................................................. 15 7. Weighted Contribution ....................................................................................................................................................... 18 8. Inflation Diffusion Index .................................................................................................................................................... 20 9. Domestic Commodity Prices (Growth) .............................................................................................................................. 22 10. Inflation in Global Context ............................................................................................................................................ 23 11. Global Commodity Prices .............................................................................................................................................. 24 12. Seasonal Adjustment in CPI .......................................................................................................................................... 25 List of Tables ................................................................................................................................................................................. 29 Table A0: Inflation – Summary .............................................................................................................................................. 29 Table A1: National CPI Inflation by Groups (YoY and MoM in percent).......................................................................... 30 Table A2: Urban CPI Inflation by Groups (YoY and MoM in percent) ............................................................................. 30 Table A3: Rural CPI Inflation by Groups (YoY and MoM in percent) .............................................................................. 31 Table A4: Top Ten Contributors to Urban CPI Inflation (YoY) – August 2022 ................................................................ 32 Table A5: Top Ten Contributors to Urban CPI Inflation (MoM) in August 2022 ............................................................. 33 Table A6: Top and Bottom Fifteen Contributors to Urban CPI Inflation (YoY) in August 2022..................................... 34 Table A7: Top and Bottom Fifteen Contributors to Urban CPI Inflation (MoM) in August 2022 ................................... 35 Table A8: Top and Bottom Fifteen Contributors to MoM Urban CPI Food Inflation in August 2022 ............................ 36 Table A9: Top and Bottom Fifteen Contributors to MoM Urban CPI Non-Food Inflation in August 2022.................... 37 Table A10: Top Ten Contributors to Rural CPI Inflation (YoY) in August 2022 .............................................................. 38 Table A11: Top Ten Contributors to Rural CPI Inflation (MoM) in August 2022 ............................................................ 39 Table A12: Top and Bottom Fifteen Contributors to Rural CPI Inflation (YoY) in August 2022 .................................... 40 Table A13: Top and Bottom Fifteen Contributors to Rural CPI (MoM) Inflation in August 2022 .................................. 41 Table A14: Top and Bottom Fifteen Contributors to MoM Rural CPI Food Inflation in August 2022 ........................... 42 Table A15: Top and Bottom Fifteen Contributors to MoM Rural CPI Non-Food Inflation in August 2022 ................... 43 Table A16: Distribution of Price Changes (YoY) - Selected Urban CPI Items: August 2022 ........................................... 44 Table A17: Distribution of Price Changes (YoY) - Selected Rural CPI Items: August 2022............................................. 45 Table A18: Distribution of Price Changes (YoY) - WPI Items: August 2022 ..................................................................... 46 Table A19: International Commodity Prices/Indices............................................................................................................ 47 Table A20: National CPI Data Series Original and Seasonally Adjusted ........................................................................... 48 Table A21: Urban CPI Data Series Original and Seasonally Adjusted ............................................................................... 49 Table A22: Rural CPI Data Series Original and Seasonally Adjusted ................................................................................ 50 Table A23: National CPI Monthly & Average Seasonal Factors ......................................................................................... 51 Table A24: Urban CPI Monthly & Average Seasonal Factors............................................................................................. 51 Table A25: Rural CPI Monthly & Average Seasonal Factors.............................................................................................. 52
  4.   State Bank of Pakistan Table A26: National CPI (Month-on-Month) Original & Seasonally Adjusted ................................................................. 53 Table A27: Urban CPI (Month-on-Month) Original & Seasonally Adjusted Series .......................................................... 54 Table A28: Rural CPI (Month-on-Month) Original & Seasonally Adjusted Series ........................................................... 55 List of Figures ............................................................................................................................................................................... 56 Figure A1: National CPI Non-food Inflation (YoY, 12MMA, MoM in percent) ................................................................ 56 Figure A2: Urban CPI Non-food Inflation (YoY, 12MMA, MoM in percent) .................................................................... 57 Figure A3: Rural CPI Non-food Inflation (YoY, 12MMA, MoM in percent) ..................................................................... 58 Figure A4: Frequency Distribution of Price Changes of Urban CPI Items (YoY) ............................................................. 59 Figure A5: Frequency Distribution of Price Changes of Rural CPI Items (YoY) .............................................................. 60 Figure A6: Frequency Distribution of Price Changes of Urban CPI Items (MoM) ........................................................... 61 Figure A7: Frequency Distribution of Price Changes of Rural CPI Items (MoM) ............................................................ 62 Figure A8: Frequency Distribution of Price Changes of WPI Commodities (YoY) ........................................................... 63 Technical Notes, Definitions and Methodologies ........................................................................................................................ 64 Technical Notes ........................................................................................................................................................................ 64 Methodology for Estimating Inflation Diffusion Index for Pakistan ................................................................................... 66       3
  5. 4   Inflation Monitor, August 2022     Team    Mazhar Hussain Sr. Joint Director mazhar.hussain@sbp.org.pk  Syed Aamir Ali Bokhari Joint Director syed.aamir2@sbp.org.pk  Haider Ali Deputy Director haider.ali@sbp.org.pk
  6.   State Bank of Pakistan 1. Inflation in Brief 1. National CPI Inflation on year-on-year (YoY) basis increased to 27.3 percent in August 2022 from 24.9 percent in previous month. It stood at 8.4 percent in the corresponding month of last year. However, on month-on-month (MoM) basis, National CPI Inflation decreased to 2.5 percent in August 2022 from 4.3 percent in previous month. It stood at 0.6 percent during corresponding month of last year. 2. Urban CPI Inflation (on YOY basis) increased to 26.2 percent in August 2022 from 23.6 percent in previous month. It stood at 8.3 percent during the corresponding month of last year. Urban CPI Inflation (on MoM basis) decreased to 2.6 percent in August 2022 from 4.5 percent in previous month. It stood at 0.5 percent during corresponding month of last year. Seasonally adjusted MoM CPI Inflation recorded at 2.7 percent in August 2022 compared to 3.6 percent in the previous month. 3. Rural CPI Inflation (on YoY basis) increased to 28.8 percent in August 2022 from 26.9 percent in previous month. It was recorded 8.4 percent during the corresponding month of last year. Rural CPI Inflation (on MoM basis) decreased to 2.2 percent in August 2022 from 4.2 percent in the previous month. It stood at 0.7 percent during corresponding month of last year. Seasonally adjusted (MoM) CPI Inflation recorded at 2.2 percent in August 2022 compared to 3.2 percent in previous month. 4. Urban Core Inflation (trimmed) on YoY basis increased to 21.4 percent in August 2022 from 19.1 percent in previous month. It stood at 7.8 percent during the corresponding month of last year. On MoM basis, Urban Core Inflation (trimmed) decreased to 1.7 percent in August 2022 from 2.7 percent in previous month. It stood at 0.4 percent during the corresponding month of last year. 5. Rural Core Inflation (trimmed) on YoY basis increased to 23.8 percent in August 2022 from 21.7 percent in previous month. It was recorded 7.8 percent during the corresponding month of last year. On MoM basis, Rural Core Inflation (trimmed) decreased to 1.8 percent in August 2022 from 2.7 percent in previous month. It stood at 0.6 percent during corresponding month of last year. 6. Urban Core (Non-food, Non-energy (NFNE)) Inflation on YoY basis increased to 13.8 percent in August 2022 from 12.0 percent in previous month. It stood at 6.3 percent during corresponding month of last year. On MoM basis, Urban Core (NFNE) Inflation increased to 1.8 percent in August 2022 from 1.2 percent in previous month. It stood at 0.2 percent during the corresponding month of last year. 7. Rural Core (Non-food, Non-energy (NFNE)) Inflation on YOY basis increased to 16.5 percent in August 2022 from 14.6 percent in previous month. It stood at 6.2 percent during the corresponding month of last year. On MoM basis, it increased to 1.8 percent in August 2022 from 1.6 percent in previous month. It was recorded 0.2 percent during the corresponding month of last year. 8. WPI Inflation on YoY basis increased to 41.2 percent in August 2022 from 38.5 percent in previous month. It stood at 17.1 percent during the corresponding month of last year. On MoM basis, it increased to 3.1 percent in August 2022 from 2.0 percent in previous month. It was recorded 1.2 percent during the corresponding month of last year.     5
  7. 6   Inflation Monitor, August 2022 9. SPI Inflation on YoY basis increased to 40.6 percent in August 2022 from 34.3 percent in previous month. During corresponding month of last year, SPI Inflation stood at 12.7 percent. On MoM basis, SPI Inflation decreased to 5.6 percent in August 2022 from 7.7 percent in previous month. It stood at 0.9 percent during corresponding month of last year.
  8. 7 State Bank of Pakistan   2. Heat Maps of CPI inflation Heat map visually elaborates the evolution of inflation. A heat map for National, Urban and Rural CPI inflation (YoY and MoM) and their important sub-indices for the last thirteen months is presented. The observed inflation is compared with the benchmark of inflation target of 11.5 percent1 for FY23. Green areas indicate low inflation pressures whereas red areas indicate higher inflationary pressures. Heat map of National, Urban and Rural CPI inflation (YoY) National Headline Urban Rural Urban Food Rural Urban Core Rural Aug-21 8.4 8.3 8.4 10.2 9.1 6.3 6.2 Sep-21 9.0 9.1 8.8 10.8 9.1 6.4 6.2 Oct-21 9.2 9.6 8.7 9.4 7.2 6.7 6.7 Nov-21 11.5 12.0 10.9 11.9 8.6 7.6 8.2 Dec-21 12.3 12.7 11.6 11.7 9.0 8.3 8.9 Jan-22 13.0 13.0 12.9 13.3 11.8 8.2 9.0 Feb-22 12.2 11.5 13.3 14.3 14.6 7.8 9.4 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 12.7 13.4 13.8 21.3 24.9 27.3 11.9 12.2 12.4 19.8 23.6 26.2 13.9 15.1 15.9 23.6 26.9 28.8 14.5 15.6 15.5 24.0 27.4 28.8 15.5 17.7 19.0 27.0 29.6 30.2 8.9 9.1 9.7 11.5 12.0 13.8 10.3 10.9 11.5 13.6 14.6 16.5 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics and SBP staff estimates Key <6 8.5 >10 Heat map of National, Urban and Rural CPI inflation (MoM) National Headline Urban Rural Urban Food Rural Urban Core Rural Aug-21 0.6 0.5 0.70 0.5 0.8 0.2 0.2 Sep-21 2.1 2.0 2.3 3.6 3.7 0.4 0.5 Oct-21 1.9 1.7 2.2 1.5 2.6 0.9 1.0 Nov-21 3.0 2.9 3.1 3.9 3.3 1.1 1.8 Dec-21 0.0 0.3 -0.5 -2.3 -3.1 1.1 1.1 Jan-22 0.4 0.1 0.9 -0.8 0.4 0.8 1.2 Feb-22 1.2 0.9 1.5 2.2 2.6 0.8 0.9 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 0.80 1.6 0.4 6.3 4.3 2.5 0.7 1.6 0.3 6.2 4.5 2.6 1.0 1.6 0.6 6.6 4.2 2.2 1.8 3.7 1.0 5.3 4.3 1.6 2.3 2.8 1.3 6.0 3.7 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.7 2.0 1.2 1.8 1.1 1.2 0.9 2.3 1.6 1.8 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics and SBP staff estimates Key <0.00 0.75 >1.50 Heat map of National CPI inflation (YoY) Weights Aug-21 General 100.00 8.4 Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages 34.58 10.0 Alcoholic Beverages, Tobacco 1.02 2.1 Clothing and Footwear 8.60 9.3 Housing, Water, Elec., Gas and Other Fuels 23.63 8.0 Furnishing and Household Equipment Maintenance 4.10 9.6 Health 2.79 8.5 Transport 5.91 8.1 Communication 2.21 2.8 Recreation and Culture 1.59 6.4 Education 3.79 2.9 Restaurants and Hotels 6.92 7.3 Misc. Goods and Services 4.87 5.9 Sep-21 9.0 10.2 2.0 9.2 9.8 9.3 8.0 9.1 2.8 6.9 2.6 7.8 7.4 Oct-21 9.2 8.3 1.9 9.3 12.0 9.2 8.0 14.4 2.8 7.5 2.2 8.3 8.7 Nov-21 11.5 10.5 1.8 9.8 14.8 10.4 8.5 24.4 2.5 7.5 2.4 11.0 10.0 Dec-21 12.3 10.3 2.0 11.2 16.6 12.3 9.4 24.1 2.5 7.7 2.8 12.6 10.6 Jan-22 13.0 12.8 2.0 11.2 15.5 13.0 9.2 23.1 2.6 7.8 3.2 13.0 10.3 <6   1     Annual Plan 2022-23 published by Planning Commission of Pakistan. Feb-22 12.2 14.7 2.1 9.7 9.0 13.4 10.1 25.0 2.5 8.2 3.4 14.4 10.1 8.5 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 12.7 13.4 13.8 21.3 24.9 27.3 15.3 17.0 17.3 25.9 28.8 29.5 1.8 5.1 10.1 17.6 22.5 25.8 9.7 10.8 11.3 13.7 14.6 17.6 8.3 7.1 5.8 13.5 21.8 27.6 13.8 14.7 16.1 18.8 19.7 21.9 10.0 10.4 10.6 11.3 11.2 11.9 26.3 28.3 31.8 62.2 64.7 63.1 2.6 1.6 1.8 2.0 1.2 1.2 9.3 9.7 12.3 14.4 15.4 21.8 8.3 8.4 9.5 9.5 9.8 10.0 14.6 14.6 16.0 21.9 25.0 27.4 12.4 12.8 13.3 15.8 17.2 20.0 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics and SBP staff estimates >10  
  9. 8   Inflation Monitor, August 2022 Heat map of Urban CPI inflation (YoY) Weights Aug-21 General 100.00 8.3 Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages 30.42 10.6 Alcoholic Beverages, Tobacco 0.85 2.8 Clothing and Footwear 8.01 10.3 Housing, Water, Elec., Gas and Other Fuels 27.03 7.2 Furnishing and Household Equipment Maintenance 4.09 9.4 Health 2.31 9.1 Transport 6.14 8.8 Communication 2.35 3.8 Recreation and Culture 1.73 5.5 Education 4.88 2.5 Restaurants and Hotels 7.41 7.6 Misc. Goods and Services 4.77 6.1 Sep-21 9.1 11.1 2.6 10.0 8.9 9.5 8.7 9.7 3.8 6.3 2.3 8.5 8.0 Oct-21 9.6 9.4 2.1 10.2 11.1 9.1 8.4 15.0 3.8 7.6 1.9 8.6 9.3 Nov-21 12.0 12.2 1.9 9.5 13.6 10.0 9.3 25.7 3.4 7.5 2.2 11.4 10.1 Dec-21 12.7 11.7 2.1 12.2 15.4 11.4 10.1 25.0 3.3 7.9 2.6 13.2 10.4 Jan-22 13.0 13.6 2.0 12.4 14.2 11.9 10.0 23.4 3.4 8.1 3.0 13.2 10.1 <6 Feb-22 11.5 14.5 2.0 9.4 7.8 12.4 10.2 24.8 3.3 8.0 3.2 15.0 9.6 8.5 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 11.9 12.2 12.4 19.8 23.6 26.2 14.8 16.0 15.8 24.6 27.8 28.9 1.5 4.8 9.4 18.3 21.7 25.8 9.6 10.5 11.0 14.2 15.0 18.8 7.1 5.6 4.4 11.3 19.2 24.8 12.6 13.5 15.2 17.6 18.2 20.3 10.0 10.3 10.3 10.9 10.8 11.8 26.3 28.6 32.2 61.5 63.8 62.4 3.3 2.0 2.3 2.5 1.1 1.2 8.7 8.9 11.9 13.3 13.9 20.4 9.0 9.2 10.4 10.4 10.5 10.1 14.5 14.5 14.5 21.2 24.7 27.4 11.9 12.0 12.2 15.1 16.8 20.1 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics and SBP staff estimates >10   Heat map of Rural CPI inflation (YoY) Weights Aug-21 General 100.00 8.4 Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages 40.87 9.3 Alcoholic Beverages, Tobacco 1.28 1.4 Clothing and Footwear 9.48 8.1 Housing, Water, Elec., Gas and Other Fuels 18.49 9.7 Furnishing and Household Equipment Maintenance 4.10 10.0 Health 3.51 7.8 Transport 5.56 6.9 Communication 1.99 1.0 Recreation and Culture 1.38 8.0 Education 2.13 4.5 Restaurants and Hotels 6.19 6.9 Misc. Goods and Services 5.02 5.7 Sep-21 8.8 9.3 1.3 8.2 11.6 8.9 7.3 8.2 0.9 7.9 4.1 6.6 6.5 Oct-21 8.7 7.1 1.6 8.2 14.0 9.3 7.5 13.4 1.0 7.3 3.2 7.6 7.9 Nov-21 10.9 8.7 1.7 10.1 17.5 11.0 7.8 22.3 0.8 7.5 3.2 10.3 9.7 Dec-21 11.6 8.9 1.9 10.1 19.2 13.7 8.7 22.5 0.9 7.3 3.5 11.5 10.7 Jan-22 12.9 12.0 2.0 9.7 18.5 14.8 8.3 22.5 1.1 7.4 3.7 12.6 10.8 <6 Feb-22 13.3 15.0 2.3 10.0 11.6 15.0 10.0 25.4 1.1 8.5 4.4 13.3 10.7 8.5 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 13.9 15.1 15.9 23.6 26.9 28.8 15.9 18.2 19.0 27.4 29.9 30.2 2.3 5.5 11.0 16.9 23.4 25.8 9.8 11.3 11.7 13.1 14.0 16.2 11.1 10.3 9.1 18.4 27.6 33.9 15.6 16.4 17.5 20.5 22.0 24.2 10.0 10.4 10.9 11.8 11.7 12.0 26.2 27.9 31.0 63.4 66.3 64.2 1.1 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 10.5 11.0 13.0 16.3 18.2 24.3 5.6 5.1 6.0 6.2 7.2 9.8 14.6 14.7 18.5 23.0 25.4 27.5 13.1 13.9 14.9 16.8 17.7 19.7 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics and SBP staff estimates >10   Heat map of National CPI inflation (MoM) Weights Aug-21 General 100.00 0.6 Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages 34.58 0.7 Alcoholic Beverages, Tobacco 1.02 0.0 Clothing and Footwear 8.60 0.1 Housing, Water, Elec., Gas and Other Fuels 23.63 0.7 Furnishing and Household Equipment Maintenance 4.10 0.5 Health 2.79 0.6 Transport 5.91 0.7 Communication 2.21 0.0 Recreation and Culture 1.59 0.8 Education 3.79 0.9 Restaurants and Hotels 6.92 0.3 Misc. Goods and Services 4.87 0.3 Sep-21 2.1 4.0 0.4 0.2 1.6 0.8 0.5 1.3 0.0 1.2 0.0 1.1 1.4 Oct-21 1.9 2.1 0.4 0.5 2.4 0.8 0.7 5.3 0.1 1.2 0.1 1.3 1.3 Nov-21 3.0 3.9 0.2 1.9 2.4 1.6 1.2 6.3 0.0 0.4 0.2 3.5 1.8 Dec-21 0.0 -3.4 0.3 2.0 2.8 2.3 1.6 1.3 0.0 0.6 0.4 2.1 0.7 <0.00 Jan-22 0.4 -0.5 0.1 0.8 1.0 1.1 0.7 1.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 1.0 0.8 Feb-22 1.2 2.5 0.3 1.0 -1.6 1.8 2.1 3.6 0.0 0.5 0.3 1.7 1.1 0.75 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 0.8 1.6 0.4 6.3 4.3 2.5 2.3 3.7 0.9 5.5 4.1 1.3 0.0 3.1 4.9 7.0 4.1 2.7 1.0 2.1 0.7 2.3 1.1 2.8 -2.2 -0.7 -2.3 7.7 8.8 5.5 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.9 1.7 2.3 0.6 0.9 0.5 1.2 0.2 1.2 0.3 0.4 2.7 24.4 5.7 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 1.3 0.4 2.8 3.2 1.6 6.3 4.7 0.6 1.0 0.3 0.5 1.1 0.9 0.2 1.8 5.8 2.9 2.3 1.6 0.8 1.2 3.3 1.6 2.7 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics and SBP staff estimates >1.50   Heat map of Urban CPI inflation (MoM) Weights Aug-21 General 100.00 0.5 Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages 30.42 0.6 Alcoholic Beverages, Tobacco 0.85 0.0 Clothing and Footwear 8.01 0.1 Housing, Water, Elec., Gas and Other Fuels 27.03 0.5 Furnishing and Household Equipment Maintenance 4.09 0.4 Health 2.31 0.6 Transport 6.14 0.7 Communication 2.35 0.0 Recreation and Culture 1.73 0.6 Education 4.88 1.1 Restaurants and Hotels 7.41 0.1 Misc. Goods and Services 4.77 0.5 Sep-21 2.0 4.0 0.2 0.1 1.6 0.8 0.6 1.5 0.0 1.3 0.0 1.4 1.4 Oct-21 1.7 1.6 0.2 0.4 2.3 0.7 0.6 5.3 0.1 1.5 0.2 1.0 1.0 Nov-21 2.9 4.3 0.3 1.3 2.0 1.4 1.1 6.6 0.0 0.3 0.2 3.5 1.7 Dec-21 0.3 -3.0 0.1 2.9 2.6 1.8 1.6 1.3 0.0 0.5 0.5 2.3 0.6 <0.00 Jan-22 0.1 -1.1 0.0 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 Feb-22 0.9 2.3 0.2 1.3 -1.6 2.0 1.6 3.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 2.0 1.2 0.75 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 0.7 1.6 0.3 6.2 4.5 2.6 2.1 4.3 0.9 5.0 4.3 1.4 0.1 3.3 4.6 8.2 2.9 3.4 0.9 2.0 0.5 3.0 1.0 3.4 -2.2 -0.6 -2.3 7.0 8.6 5.2 1.1 1.6 2.0 2.6 1.5 2.3 0.9 0.8 0.4 1.4 0.1 1.6 0.5 0.6 2.9 23.5 5.6 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.9 0.2 3.0 3.1 1.2 6.3 5.7 0.6 1.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.6 6.6 3.3 2.3 1.8 0.7 1.1 3.7 1.4 3.4 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics and SBP staff estimates >1.50  
  10. 9 State Bank of Pakistan   Heat map of Rural CPI inflation (MoM) Weights Aug-21 General 100.00 0.7 Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages 40.87 0.9 Alcoholic Beverages, Tobacco 1.28 0.0 Clothing and Footwear 9.48 0.1 Housing, Water, Elec., Gas and Other Fuels 18.49 1.0 Furnishing and Household Equipment Maintenance 4.10 0.6 Health 3.51 0.5 Transport 5.56 0.8 Communication 1.99 0.0 Recreation and Culture 1.38 1.2 Education 2.13 0.4 Restaurants and Hotels 6.19 0.7 Misc. Goods and Services 5.02 0.1 Sep-21 2.3 4.1 0.6 0.4 1.7 0.7 0.4 1.0 0.0 1.1 0.0 0.6 1.3 Oct-21 2.2 2.7 0.5 0.6 2.7 1.0 0.7 5.2 0.2 0.7 0.1 1.9 1.9 Nov-21 3.1 3.6 0.1 2.6 3.3 2.0 1.3 5.8 0.0 0.5 0.0 3.5 2.0 Dec-21 -0.5 -3.7 0.5 0.9 3.2 3.1 1.7 1.3 0.0 0.6 0.3 1.6 0.9 Jan-22 0.9 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.9 1.3 0.9 2.0 0.2 0.7 0.2 1.6 1.0 <0.00 Heat map of Rural CPI inflation (YoY) Weights Aug-21 Rural 100.00 8.4 Food 45.95 9.1 Non-perishable 40.16 9.9 Perishable 5.79 5.4 Non Food 54.05 7.7 Energy 11.41 13.8 NFNE (Core) 42.64 6.2 HRI 8.61 6.1 Core Excl HRI 34.03 6.3 Sep-21 8.8 9.1 12.3 -6.8 8.5 17.2 6.2 6.1 6.3 Oct-21 8.7 7.2 11.2 -12.5 10.0 23.2 6.7 6.6 6.7 Nov-21 10.9 8.6 11.7 -5.5 13.0 32.0 8.2 6.6 8.6 Dec-21 11.6 9.0 12.8 -12.0 14.0 34.0 8.9 6.6 9.5 Sep-21 9.1 10.8 15.3 -9.6 8.1 17.8 6.4 6.1 6.5 Oct-21 9.6 9.4 13.2 -8.9 9.7 25.9 6.7 6.6 6.8 Nov-21 12.0 11.9 15.3 -1.9 12.0 37.2 7.6 6.6 8.1 Jan-22 12.9 11.8 12.8 6.6 13.9 32.7 9.0 5.9 9.7 Jan-22 13.0 13.3 14.7 6.3 12.8 38.1 8.2 6.1 9.3 <6 Heat map of Rural CPI inflation (MoM) Weights Aug-21 Sep-21 Rural 100.00 0.7 2.3 Food 45.95 0.8 3.7 Non-perishable 40.16 0.5 4.1 Perishable 5.79 3.3 4.3 Non Food 54.05 0.6 1.0 Energy 11.41 2.2 2.9 NFNE (Core) 42.64 0.2 0.5 HRI 8.61 0.0 0.0 Core Excl HRI 34.03 0.2 0.6 Oct-21 2.2 2.6 2.0 7.1 1.9 5.2 1.0 1.3 1.0 Nov-21 3.1 3.3 1.8 14.5 3.0 7.0 1.8 0.0 2.2 Feb-22 11.5 14.3 11.8 34.1 9.9 20.2 7.8 6.1 8.7 8.5 Dec-21 -0.5 -3.1 -0.4 -21.8 1.9 4.4 1.1 0.0 1.4 <0.00     Feb-22 13.3 14.6 12.4 35.8 12.2 21.9 9.4 5.9 10.3 8.5 Dec-21 12.7 11.7 15.5 -8.7 13.4 41.3 8.3 6.6 9.2 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 1.0 1.6 0.6 6.6 4.2 2.2 2.5 3.1 0.8 6.1 3.8 1.2 0.0 2.8 5.3 5.6 5.5 1.9 1.1 2.3 0.9 1.6 1.2 2.0 -2.3 -0.8 -2.5 9.2 9.4 6.0 1.7 1.6 1.5 3.3 2.0 2.4 0.2 0.9 0.6 1.1 0.3 0.8 0.0 0.2 2.5 25.9 5.7 -0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 2.0 0.8 2.5 3.4 2.2 6.4 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.9 1.4 2.8 1.2 0.3 3.9 4.4 2.2 2.4 1.4 1.0 1.3 2.8 2.0 1.9 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics and SBP staff estimates 0.75 <6 Heat map of Urban CPI inflation (YoY) Weights Aug-21 100.00 8.3 Urban Food 36.80 10.2 Non-perishable 32.34 12.2 Perishable 4.46 1.7 Non Food 63.20 7.2 Energy 9.47 12.2 NFNE (Core) 53.73 6.3 HRI 19.26 6.1 Core Excl HRI 34.47 6.4 Feb-22 1.5 2.8 0.3 0.6 -1.4 1.3 2.5 3.9 0.0 1.2 0.8 1.0 0.8 Jan-22 0.9 0.4 1.0 -5.1 1.4 1.9 1.2 2.1 1.0 Feb-22 1.5 2.6 1.4 13.3 0.4 -0.9 0.9 0.0 1.1 0.75 >1.50   Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 13.9 15.1 15.9 23.6 26.9 28.8 15.5 17.7 19.0 27.0 29.6 30.2 13.7 15.8 17.0 25.5 29.3 29.6 32.8 34.4 33.7 41.2 33.5 34.3 12.5 12.8 13.1 20.4 24.5 27.5 20.4 19.8 19.3 46.6 61.2 67.8 10.3 10.9 11.5 13.6 14.6 16.5 5.9 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.9 5.9 11.4 12.2 12.9 15.5 16.8 19.1 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics and SBP staff estimates >10   Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 11.9 12.2 12.4 19.8 23.6 26.2 14.5 15.6 15.5 24.0 27.4 28.8 13.0 14.4 15.0 23.5 27.1 28.2 28.0 25.6 20.6 32.4 32.4 33.5 10.4 10.2 10.4 17.3 21.3 24.7 18.0 15.7 14.1 48.8 70.2 80.7 8.9 9.1 9.7 11.5 12.0 13.8 6.1 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 10.5 11.0 11.9 14.7 15.5 18.2 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics and SBP staff estimates >10   Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 1.0 1.6 0.6 6.6 4.2 2.2 2.3 2.8 1.3 6.0 3.7 1.2 2.8 0.6 2.8 6.2 3.5 0.7 0.5 20.0 -10.7 5.2 6.0 3.9 -0.2 0.5 0.0 7.1 4.6 3.1 -4.0 -1.8 -2.8 24.3 13.4 6.4 1.1 1.2 0.9 2.3 1.6 1.8 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 0.0 1.3 1.3 1.0 2.9 1.7 2.2 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics and SBP staff estimates >1.50  
  11. 10   Inflation Monitor, August 2022 Heat map of Urban CPI inflation (MoM) Weights Aug-21 Sep-21 Urban 100.00 0.5 2.0 Food 36.80 0.5 3.6 Non-perishable 32.34 0.3 4.2 Perishable 4.46 2.0 2.6 Non Food 63.20 0.5 1.1 Energy 9.47 2.1 4.6 NFNE (Core) 53.73 0.2 0.4 HRI 19.26 0.0 0.0 Core Excl HRI 34.47 0.3 0.6 Oct-21 1.7 1.5 1.0 5.2 1.8 6.0 0.9 1.4 0.6 Nov-21 2.9 3.9 2.4 15.1 2.2 7.6 1.1 0.0 1.7 Dec-21 0.3 -2.3 0.2 -20.2 2.0 5.8 1.1 0.0 1.7 <0.00                                           Jan-22 0.1 -0.8 -0.4 -5.4 0.6 -0.4 0.8 1.5 0.4 Feb-22 0.9 2.2 0.5 14.7 0.2 -2.3 0.8 0.0 1.1 0.75 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 0.7 1.6 0.3 6.2 4.5 2.6 1.8 3.7 1.0 5.3 4.3 1.6 2.6 1.7 3.1 4.9 3.8 1.2 -1.1 20.8 -10.8 5.5 7.3 2.8 -0.1 0.3 -0.1 6.8 4.6 3.3 -5.9 -3.4 -4.6 32.2 18.3 8.4 1.2 1.1 0.7 2.0 1.2 1.8 0.0 1.1 0.0 0.0 1.5 0.0 1.9 1.0 1.1 3.0 1.1 2.7 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics and SBP staff estimates >1.50  
  12.   3. Trends in Inflation     State Bank of Pakistan 11
  13.   Inflation Monitor, August 2022 4. Movement in Price Indices (Moving Averages)    Fig 4.1: Movements in Price Indices (12 months moving average (12mma) in percent) National Urban Rural WPI SPI 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 Aug-22 Jul-22 Jun-22 May-22 Apr-22 Mar-22 Feb-22 Jan-22 Dec-21 Nov-21 Oct-21 Sep-21 Aug-21 Jul-21 Jun-21 May-21 Apr-21 Mar-21 Feb-21 Jan-21 Dec-20 Nov-20 Oct-20 Sep-20 0 Aug-20 12  
  14. 13 State Bank of Pakistan   5. Movement in Price Indices (Month-on-Month) Fig 5.1: Movements in Price Indices (MoM in percent) National CPI Urban CPI Rural CPI WPI SPI 10 8 Percent 6 4 2 0 -2 Aug-22 Jun-22 Apr-22 Feb-22 Dec-21 Oct-21 Aug-21 Jun-21 Apr-21 Feb-21 Dec-20 Oct-20 Aug-20 Jun-20 Apr-20 Feb-20 Dec-19 Oct-19 Aug-19 -4   Fig 5.2: Movements in Price Indices (MoM in percent) - Urban CPI Basket CPI Food Non-Food NFNE Trimmed 8 6 Percent 4 2 0 -2 Aug-22 Jun-22 Apr-22 Feb-22 Dec-21 Oct-21 Aug-21 Jun-21 Apr-21 Feb-21 Dec-20 Oct-20 Aug-20 Jun-20 Apr-20 Feb-20 Dec-19 Oct-19 Aug-19 -4          
  15.   Inflation Monitor, August 2022 Fig 5.3: Movements in Price Indices (MoM in percent) - Rural CPI Basket CPI Food Non-Food NFNE Trimmed 8 6 4 Percent 2 0 -2 Aug-22 Jun-22 Apr-22 Feb-22 Dec-21 Oct-21 Aug-21 Jun-21 Apr-21 Feb-21 Dec-20 Oct-20 Aug-20 Jun-20 Apr-20 Feb-20 Dec-19 Oct-19 -4 Aug-19 14                
  16. State Bank of Pakistan   6. Trends in Consumer Price Indices and Inflation Monthly Consumer Price Indices, YoY growth rates and inflation build up over August along with seasonally adjusted (MoM) growth rates in CPI (National, Urban and Rural) is summarized in the following graphs (Figure 6.1 to 6.3). 6.1. Trends in Consumer Price Index and Inflation (National CPI) a: Consumer Price Index (CPI) b: CPI Inflation (YoY) May Jun Jun 8.0 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 7.0 Percent 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2020-21 2021-22 Mar Feb Jan Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug -1.0 Jul Percent 2022-23 d: MoM Seasonally Adjusted CPI Inflation c: CPI Inflation Build-up over June     2021-22 Apr 2020-21 Apr 2022-23 Mar Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan 2021-22 May 2020-21 Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul 120 Feb 130 Jan 140 Dec 150 Nov 160 Oct 170 Sep 180 30 28 26 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 Aug 190 Percent Consumer Price Index (2015-16=100). 200 2022-23 15
  17. Inflation Monitor , August 2022 6.2. Trends in Consumer Price Index and Inflation (Urban CPI Basket) a: Consumer Price Index (CPI) b: CPI Inflation (YoY) May Jun Jun 2021-22 Apr 2020-21 May 2022-23 Mar Jul Jun Apr May Mar Feb Jan 2021-22 Apr 2020-21 Dec Nov Oct Sep Jul Aug 120 Feb 130 Jan 140 Dec 150 Nov 160 Oct Percent 170 Sep 180 28 26 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 Aug 190 2022-23 d: MoM Seasonally Adjusted CPI Inflation c: CPI Inflation Build-up over June 22 8.0 20 7.0 18 6.0 16 Percent 14 12 10 5.0 4.0 3.0 8 2.0 6 2021-22 2022-23 2020-21 Mar Jan 2021-22 Feb Dec Nov Oct Sep Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan Dec Oct 2020-21 Nov Sep -1.0 Aug 0.0 0 Jul 2 Aug 1.0 4 Jul Consumer Price Index (2015-16=100).   Percent 16 2022-23
  18. State Bank of Pakistan   6.3. Trends in Consumer Price Index and Inflation (Rural CPI Basket) b: CPI Inflation (YoY) 200 35 190 30 Percent 180 170 160 25 20 15 150 May Jun Jun Mar Feb Jan Dec 2021-22 May 2020-21 Apr 2022-23 Nov Oct Sep Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan 2021-22 Apr 2020-21 Dec Nov 0 Oct 120 Sep 5 Aug 130 Aug 10 140 Jul Consumer Price Index (2015-16=100). a: Consumer Price Index (CPI) 2022-23 d: MoM Seasonally Adjusted CPI Inflation c: CPI Inflation Build-up over June 7.0 25 6.0 5.0 4.0 15 Percent Percent 20 10 3.0 2.0 1.0 5 0.0 2020-21     2021-22 2022-23 2020-21 2021-22 Mar Feb Jan Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug -1.0 Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul 0 2022-23 17
  19. 18   Inflation Monitor, August 2022 7. Weighted Contribution The weighted contribution of food group in the overall urban CPI inflation decreased to 41.6 percent during August 2022 from 44.0 percent in previous month. It was 45.7 percent during corresponding month of last year. The weighted contribution of non-food group increased to 58.4 percent in August 2022 from 56.0 percent in previous month. Weighted Contribution of non-food was 54.3 percent during corresponding month of last year. Table 7.1 provide the historical perspective of weighted contribution of food and nonfood group and their respective sub-indices (Perishable food, Non-Perishable food, Energy, Core Inflation (NFNE), NFNE excluding HRI and HRI) in the overall inflation for urban basket. Table 7.1 Weighted Contribution (in percent) to Urban CPI Inflation (YoY) Food Group Period Overall CPI Food Perishable food Non-Food Group NonPerishable food Non-food Energy Core Inflation (NFNE) NFNE excl HRI HRI a=(b+e) b=(c+d) c d e=(f+g) f g=(h+i) h i Aug-21 100.0 45.7 1.0 44.7 54.3 14.3 40.0 26.4 13.6 Sep-21 100.0 44.7 -5.6 50.4 55.3 18.7 36.7 24.4 12.3 Oct-21 100.0 37.9 -5.1 43.0 62.1 25.4 36.7 24.0 12.8 Nov-21 100.0 38.6 -0.9 39.5 61.4 28.6 32.8 22.7 10.1 Dec-21 100.0 35.0 -3.4 38.5 65.0 30.8 34.2 24.6 9.5 Jan-22 100.0 38.2 2.0 36.2 61.8 28.4 33.4 24.5 8.9 Feb-22 100.0 46.1 10.9 35.2 54.0 18.7 35.3 25.5 9.8 Mar-22 100.0 45.6 8.9 36.7 54.4 15.3 39.1 29.7 9.4 Apr-22 100.0 48.5 9.6 38.9 51.5 12.7 38.7 30.4 8.4 May-22 100.0 48.2 7.1 41.1 51.7 10.9 40.9 32.6 8.3 Jun-22 100.0 45.7 6.7 39.0 54.3 23.9 30.3 25.2 5.2 Jul-22 100.0 44.0 6.0 38.0 56.0 29.5 26.5 22.1 4.4 Aug-22 100.0 41.6 5.6 36.0 58.4 31.0 27.3 23.4 3.9 Note: The weighted contribution of sub-indices may not exactly tally with the weighted contribution of overall CPI index due to rounding off For rural basket, the weighted contribution of food group in the overall rural CPI inflation decreased to 49.6 percent during August 2022 from 52.1 percent in previous month. It was 51.1 percent during corresponding month of last year. The weighted contribution of non-food group increased to 50.4 percent in August 2022 from 47.9 percent in previous month. Weighted contribution of non-food group was 48.8 percent during corresponding month of last year. Table 7.2 provide the historical perspective of weighted contribution of food (Perishable food, Non-Perishable food) and non-food group (Energy, Core Inflation (NFNE), NFNE excluding HRI and HRI) in the overall inflation for rural basket.
  20. State Bank of Pakistan   Table 7.2 Weighted Contribution (in percent) to Rural CPI Inflation (YoY) Food Group Non-Food Group Overall CPI Food Perishable food NonPerishable food Non-food Energy Core Inflation (NFNE) NFNE excl HRI HRI a=(b+e) b=(c+d) c d e=(f+g) f g=(h+i) h i Aug-21 100.0 51.1 3.7 47.4 48.8 17.7 31.2 25.2 6.0 Sep-21 100.0 49.5 -5.2 54.8 50.4 20.8 29.6 24.0 5.6 Oct-21 100.0 40.8 -10.9 51.7 59.2 27.7 31.5 25.3 6.2 Nov-21 100.0 39.2 -4.0 43.2 60.8 30.1 30.8 25.9 4.9 Dec-21 100.0 37.2 -6.9 44.1 62.8 31.2 31.6 27.0 4.6 Jan-22 100.0 43.2 2.7 40.5 56.8 27.7 29.1 25.3 3.8 Feb-22 100.0 51.3 12.4 38.9 48.7 19.2 29.5 25.8 3.6 Mar-22 100.0 52.6 11.2 41.5 47.4 16.7 30.7 27.2 3.5 Apr-22 100.0 55.5 12.7 42.8 44.5 14.6 29.9 26.8 3.1 May-22 100.0 56.7 10.6 46.1 43.3 13.2 30.1 27.1 3.0 Jun-22 100.0 54.2 8.7 45.4 45.8 21.7 24.1 22.1 2.0 Jul-22 100.0 52.1 6.9 45.2 47.9 25.4 22.6 20.8 1.8 Aug-22 100.0 49.6 6.8 42.9 50.4 26.7 23.7 22.0 1.7 Period Note: The weighted contribution of sub-indices may not exactly tally with the weighted contribution of overall CPI index due to rounding off     19
  21. 20   Inflation Monitor, August 2022 8. Inflation Diffusion Index Inflation Diffusion Index (IDI) is the difference (MoM change) between the share of items with increasing prices (i.e. depicting inflation) and the share of items with falling prices (i.e. depicting deflation) in CPI basket for which prices have reported. IDI for urban and rural baskets (CPI, Core and twelve groups) is presented in Table 8.1(a & b) for the last thirteen months. Table 8.1(a) Inflation Diffusion Index for Urban CPI Basket - based on MoM change Groups Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 General 51.7 57.6 60.1 70.2 63.2 57.6 60.1 60.1 57.3 61.2 75.3 71.1 70.8 Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages 40.0 55.6 41.1 42.2 34.4 40.0 46.7 34.4 44.4 37.8 57.8 66.7 54.4 Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco 0.0 33.3 33.3 33.3 33.3 66.7 33.3 33.3 66.7 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Clothing & Footwear 45.0 50.0 55.0 80.0 85.0 77.5 77.5 70.0 67.5 72.5 82.5 62.5 70.0 Housing, Water, Elect, Gas & other Fuels 41.4 58.6 72.4 72.4 69.0 13.8 3.4 10.3 17.2 20.7 72.4 75.9 58.6 Furnishing & Household Equip. Maintenance etc. 78.6 83.3 88.1 90.5 88.1 88.1 90.5 90.5 90.5 97.6 100.0 97.6 95.2 Health 74.2 54.8 51.6 64.5 90.3 71.0 87.1 77.4 74.2 61.3 90.3 61.3 77.4 Transport 46.9 40.6 50.0 93.8 53.1 62.5 62.5 59.4 40.6 53.1 93.8 81.3 50.0 Communication 20.0 20.0 20.0 0.0 20.0 40.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 40.0 40.0 20.0 Recreation & Culture 56.0 48.0 72.0 68.0 24.0 36.0 36.0 68.0 44.0 76.0 44.0 52.0 80.0 Education 25.0 25.0 56.3 81.3 68.8 31.3 37.5 75.0 43.8 50.0 25.0 31.3 75.0 Restaurant & Hotels 57.1 64.3 85.7 85.7 100.0 78.6 92.9 78.6 78.6 92.9 92.9 85.7 100.0 Miscellaneous 69.0 89.7 82.8 96.6 86.2 89.7 86.2 100.0 89.7 96.6 100.0 86.2 96.6 NFNE 56.2 59.1 66.0 80.9 75.3 67.2 69.4 76.6 67.2 72.8 81.3 71.5 77.4
  22. State Bank of Pakistan   Table 8.1(b) Inflation Diffusion Index for Rural CPI Basket - based on MoM change Groups Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 General 41.0 54.1 66.8 61.9 56.1 57.4 59.4 52.0 54.9 59.0 74.2 76.6 72.5 Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages 27.8 41.8 49.4 29.1 21.5 44.3 45.6 41.8 32.9 40.5 53.2 64.6 53.2 Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco 0.0 40.0 80.0 40.0 80.0 60.0 100.0 0.0 80.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Clothing & Footwear 25.9 74.1 81.5 96.3 96.3 70.4 92.6 74.1 92.6 88.9 81.5 81.5 88.9 Housing, Water, Elect, Gas & other Fuels 60.9 65.2 91.3 87.0 73.9 17.4 4.3 0.0 26.1 26.1 82.6 95.7 78.3 Furnishing & Household Equip. Maintenance etc. 61.5 57.7 84.6 88.5 96.2 92.3 92.3 84.6 80.8 84.6 92.3 92.3 100.0 Health 64.3 42.9 57.1 71.4 78.6 64.3 78.6 42.9 71.4 42.9 100.0 64.3 71.4 Transport 43.8 62.5 68.8 81.3 43.8 62.5 62.5 37.5 50.0 68.8 87.5 75.0 43.8 Communication 20.0 0.0 20.0 0.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 40.0 20.0 Recreation & Culture 53.8 53.8 61.5 53.8 15.4 38.5 53.8 69.2 30.8 76.9 53.8 53.8 84.6 Education 60.0 0.0 20.0 0.0 20.0 60.0 80.0 80.0 100.0 80.0 80.0 100.0 80.0 Restaurant & Hotels 28.6 64.3 78.6 85.7 85.7 78.6 57.1 78.6 57.1 71.4 92.9 85.7 92.9 Miscellaneous 58.8 88.2 88.2 88.2 82.4 94.1 76.5 88.2 94.1 76.5 94.1 94.1 94.1 NFNE 47.8 57.4 71.3 75.0 72.1 67.6 71.3 66.9 74.3 69.9 82.4 78.7 80.9     21
  23. 22   Inflation Monitor, August 2022 9. Domestic Commodity Prices (Growth) Growth of domestic food commodities (YoY and MoM in percent) for selected essential food items covering both urban and rural CPI baskets is given in table 9.1. Table 9.1 Growth in Domestic Urban and Rural CPI Food Commodities (in percent) – August 2022 S. No Item Unit 1 Wheat 2 Urban CPI Rural CPI YoY MoM YoY MoM 10 Kg 44.5 -0.1 39.8 1.2 Wheat Flour Bag 20 Kg 10.6 -0.4 22.0 1.0 3 Rice Basmati Broken (Superior/Average Quality)* 1 Kg 57.0 7.0 33.3 3.7 4 Beef With Bone (Average Quality) 1 Kg 24.5 0.7 27.4 2.2 5 Mutton (Average Quality) 1 Kg 30.0 1.5 22.8 1.1 6 Chicken Farm Broiler (Live) 1 Kg 59.9 -11.5 63.3 -13.6 7 Milk Fresh (Un-Boiled) 1 Litre 25.1 1.5 21.7 1.2 8 Eggs Farm Dozen 35.3 7.5 34.5 6.6 9 Vegetable Ghee Dalda/Habib Or Other Superior Quality 1 Kg Pouch Each 70.4 -2.1 68.2 -3.5 10 Pulse Masoor (Washed) 1 Kg 114.3 11.8 118.6 13.7 11 Pulse Moong (Washed) 1 Kg 11.5 15.3 20.3 12.7 12 Pulse Mash (Washed) 1 Kg 52.7 12.5 52.4 15.1 13 Pulse Gram 1 Kg 60.2 6.1 65.7 8.9 14 Potatoes 1 Kg 13.5 5.1 10.2 5.6 15 Onions 1 Kg 90.5 -0.2 96.7 4.3 16 Tomatoes 1 Kg 38.0 52.9 29.7 30.0 17 Sugar Refined 1 Kg -15.7 0.0 -16.3 -0.3 18 Garlic (Lehsun) 1 Kg 40.9 9.0 36.0 4.3 19 Ginger (Adrak) 500 Gm -23.6 8.8 -21.3 7.1 20 Tea Lipton Yellow Label 190 Gm Packet Each 24.9 1.4 22.5 1.7 *Superior Quality for Urban CPI Basket and Average Quality for Rural CPI Basket
  24. State Bank of Pakistan   10. Inflation in Global Context In global context, Pakistan’s inflation in comparison with inflation in selected developed and emerging economies is given in figure 10.1 and 10.2. Fig 10.1: Inflation (YoY) in Global Context Pakistan Inflation in comparison with Inflation in Developed Economies* US Euro Area Japan UK Pakistan 30 25 Percent 20 15 10 5 0 Aug-22 Jul-22 Jun-22 May-22 Apr-22 Mar-22 Feb-22 Jan-22 Dec-21 Nov-21 Oct-21 Sep-21 Aug-21 -5 Sources: Bloomberg, Havor Analytics, Trading Economics, Pakistan Bureau of Statistics Fig 10.2: Inflation (YoY) in Global Context Pakistan Inflation in comparison with Inflation in Emerging Economies* China Thailand India Percent 70 Bangladesh Sri Lanka (RHS) Pakistan (RHS) Argentina (RHS) Iran (RHS) Turkey (RHS) 90.0 60 80.0 50 70.0 60.0 40 50.0 30 40.0 20 30.0 10 20.0 0 10.0 -10 Aug-22 Jul-22 Jun-22 May-22 Apr-22 Mar-22 Feb-22 Jan-22 Dec-21 Nov-21 Oct-21 Sep-21 Aug-21 0.0 Sources: Bloomberg, Havor Analytics, Trading Economics, Pakistan Bureau of Statistics * Japan, Bangladesh and Argentia has not released Inflation data for the months of August, 2022 as per Trading Economics/Bloomberg/Haver analytics. Note for the readers: Inflation rates in countries such as Sri Lanka (64.3%), Argentina (71.0%), Iran (52.2%) and Turkey (80.2%) are higher than that of inflation in Pakistan (27.3%).     23
  25.   Inflation Monitor, August 2022 11. Global Commodity Prices Global commodity prices and various group indices have a relation with domestic inflation. In this context, changes in major global commodity prices and indices along with price trends are given in table 11.1 and figure 11.1. Table 11.1 Changes in Major Global Indices (percent) Aug-21 Item/ Group Jul-22 Aug-22 YoY MoM YoY MoM YoY MoM Food 34.8 0.5 13.4 -8.5 11.0 -1.6 Metals 44.6 1.3 -11.1 -12.8 -8.5 4.2 Energy 77.4 -2.0 71.7 -1.1 77.5 1.3 Agricultural 25.6 1.0 10.1 -7.5 7.9 -1.0 Cotton 44.8 3.7 34.1 -15.0 22.8 -5.0   Figure 11.1: Global Commodity Prices Growth (YoY) in Commodity Prices - Nominal US Dollars Rice Wheat Sugar Palm OIl Soyabean Oil 90 70 Percent 50 30 10 -10 -30 Growth (YoY) in Commodity Price Indices - (2010=100) Energy Index Metal Index Food Index 200 150 100 Percent 50 0 -50 Source: World Bank Aug-22 Jul-22 Jun-22 May-22 Apr-22 Mar-22 Feb-22 Jan-22 Dec-21 Nov-21 Oct-21 Sep-21 -100 Aug-21 24
  26.   State Bank of Pakistan 12. Seasonal Adjustment in CPI Seasonal adjustment is the process of estimating and removing the seasonal effects from a time series after decomposing it into seasonal, trend, cycle and irregular components. The purpose is to identify the different components of the time series and thus provide a better understanding of its underlying behavior. Seasonally adjusted changes are usually preferred for analyzing general price trends in the economy because these eliminate the effect of changes that normally occur at the same time and in about the same magnitude every year. Various statistical methods can be used to decompose a time series into its constituent components. The State Bank of Pakistan uses X-12- ARIMA Seasonal Adjustment Method for this purpose. The changes in consumer prices are normally reported in terms of year-on-year and month-on-month basis. Seasonal adjustment is particularly useful for analyzing month-on-month changes. The monthly data series of Consumer Price Indices (National CPI, Urban CPI and Rural CPI) from August 2008 to August 2022 has been used for seasonal adjustment analysis. The seasonal analysis is carried out without taking tradingday or Islamic calendar month’s effects. Figure 12.1 reveals that seasonality in all CPI series has been increasing over the period. Average seasonal factors reveal strong seasonality during the calendar year. There is an upward seasonality during the months from July to December and downward seasonality in the remaining months of the year. Upward and downward seasonality is above and below the trend line respectively. It is important to note that seasonal factors are estimate on historical data and that the future data Jun not necessarily show the same seasonal pattern.     25
  27.   Inflation Monitor, August 2022 Fig. 12.1 (a): Seasonal Factor of National CPI Average Seasonal Factors of National CPI Seasonal Factors of National CPI 97 Aug-22 97 May-22 98 Feb-22 98 Aug-21 99 Nov-21 99 May-21 100 Feb-21 100 Nov-20 101 Aug-20 101 May-20 102 Feb-20 102 Nov-19 103 Aug-19 103 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Average 99.99 99.94 100.2 100.9 101.2 100.2 99.78 99.57 99.54 99.89 99.35 99.12 Fig. 12.1 (b): Seasonal Factor of Urban CPI Average Seasonal Factors of Urban CPI Seasonal Factors of Urban CPI 97 Aug-22 97 May-22 98 Feb-22 98 Aug-21 99 Nov-21 99 May-21 100 Feb-21 100 Nov-20 101 Aug-20 101 May-20 102 Feb-20 102 Nov-19 103 Aug-19 103 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Average 100.1 100.0 100.2 100.7 100.9 100.0 99.72 99.55 99.53 100.1 99.66 99.28 Fig. 12.1 (c): Seasonal Factor of Rural CPI Average Seasonal Factors of Rural CPI Seasonal Factors of Rural CPI 103 103 102 102 101 101 100 100 99 99 98 98 Aug-22 May-22 Feb-22 Aug-21 Nov-21 May-21 Feb-21 Nov-20 Aug-20 May-20 Feb-20 Nov-19 97 Aug-19 26 97 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Average 99.82 99.83 100.3 101.3 101.7 100.5 99.87 99.60 99.55 99.53 98.89 98.87
  28. State Bank of Pakistan   Figures 12.2 show that seasonally adjusted series are relatively smoother than the original series due to the removal of the seasonal variations. The trend follows the long-term movement in original series and is smoother than the original series because some irregular fluctuations have been removed. Fig. 12.2 (a): Seasonal Plot of National CPI Seasonal Plot: Original Series of National CPI FY19 200 FY20 FY21 FY22 Seasonal Plot: Adjusted Series of National CPI FY23 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 200 190 190 180 180 170 170 160 160 150 150 140 140 130 130 120 120 110 110 100 100 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Fig. 12.2 (b): Seasonal Plot of Urban CPI Seasonal Plot: Original Series of Urban CPI FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 Seasonal Plot: Adjusted Series of Urban CPI FY23 FY19 200 200 190 190 180 180 170 170 160 160 150 150 140 140 130 130 120 120 110 110 100 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 100 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Fig. 12.2 (c): Seasonal Plot of Rural CPI Seasonal Plot: Original Series of Rural CPI FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 Seasonal Plot: Adjusted Series of Rural CPI FY23 200 190 190 180 180 170 170 160 160 150 150 140 140 130 130 120 120 110 110 100 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 100 Jul     FY19 200 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 27
  29.   Inflation Monitor, August 2022 Seasonally adjusted Index of National CPI for Fig. 12.3 (a): MoM Changes in National CPI August 2022 stood at 188.14 against 187.84 in MoM % Changes in National CPI Original Series Seasonally Adjusted Series original series showing an increase of 0.30 8 because of seasonal adjustment. 7 6 Seasonally adjusted Index of Urban CPI for August 2022 stood at 185.91 against 185.72 in original series showing an increase of 0.19 on account of seasonal adjustment. 5 4 3 2 1 0 Seasonally adjusted Index of Rural CPI for August 2022 stood at 191.50 against 191.04 in original series showing an increase of 0.46 on account of seasonal adjustment. Aug-22 Jul-22 Jun-22 May-22 Apr-22 Mar-22 Feb-22 Jan-22 Dec-21 Nov-21 Oct-21 Sep-21 -2 Aug-21 -1 Month-on-month change of seasonally adjusted National CPI series stood at 2.51% reflecting a decrease during August 2022 over previous month and a decrease of 2.45% in original series. Month-on-month change of seasonally adjusted Urban CPI series stood at 2.73% reflecting a decrease during August 2022 over previous month and a decrease of 2.62% in original series. Month-on-month change of seasonally adjusted Rural CPI series stood at 2.18% reflecting a decrease during August 2022 over previous month and a decrease of 2.19% in origional series. Fig. 12.3 (b): MoM % Changes in Urban CPI Fig. 12.3 (c): MoM % Changes in Rural CPI MoM % Changes in Urabn CPI Aug-22 Jul-22 Jun-22 Aug-22 Jul-22 Jun-22 May-22 Apr-22 Mar-22 Feb-22 Jan-22 -2 Dec-21 -2 Nov-21 -1 Oct-21 0 -1 May-22 1 0 Apr-22 2 1 Mar-22 3 2 Seasonally Adjusted Series Jan-22 4 3 Dec-21 5 4 Nov-21 6 5 Oct-21 7 6 Sep-21 8 7 Sep-21 Original Series Aug-21 8 Seasonally Adjusted Series Feb-22 MoM % Changes in Urabn CPI Original Series Aug-21 28
  30. State Bank of Pakistan   List of Tables Table A0: Inflation – Summary CPI General Period National Urban Core Inflation Food Rural Urban Non-Food Rural Urban WPI SPI** Rural NFNE* Trimmed Urban Rural Urban Rural Year-on-Year Aug-21 8.4 8.3 8.4 10.2 9.1 7.2 7.7 17.1 12.7 6.3 6.2 7.8 7.8 Sep-21 9.0 9.1 8.8 10.8 9.1 Oct-21 9.2 9.6 8.7 9.4 7.2 8.1 8.5 19.6 13.8 6.4 6.2 8.7 8.2 9.7 10.0 21.2 14.0 6.7 6.7 8.7 8.2 Nov-21 11.5 12.0 10.9 11.9 8.6 12.0 13.0 27.0 17.4 7.6 8.2 9.8 9.5 Dec-21 12.3 12.7 11.6 11.7 9.0 13.4 14.0 26.2 19.3 8.3 8.9 10.8 10.3 Jan-22 13.0 13.0 12.9 13.3 11.8 12.8 13.9 24.0 19.5 8.2 9.0 10.6 10.9 Feb-22 12.2 11.5 13.3 14.3 14.6 9.9 12.2 23.6 18.1 7.8 9.4 9.8 11.3 Mar-22 12.7 11.9 13.9 14.5 15.5 10.4 12.5 23.8 15.8 8.9 10.3 10.5 11.7 Apr-22 13.4 12.2 15.1 15.6 17.7 10.2 12.8 28.1 16.5 9.1 10.9 10.5 12.8 May-22 13.8 12.4 15.9 15.5 19.0 10.4 13.1 29.6 16.1 9.7 11.5 10.7 14.1 Jun-22 21.3 19.8 23.6 24.0 27.0 17.3 20.4 38.9 26.5 11.5 13.6 16.7 19.1 Jul-22 24.9 23.6 26.9 27.4 29.6 21.3 24.5 38.5 34.3 12.0 14.6 19.1 21.7 Aug-22 27.3 26.2 28.8 28.8 30.2 24.7 27.5 41.2 40.6 13.8 16.5 21.4 23.8 Month-on-Month Aug-21 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.6 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 Sep-21 2.1 2.0 2.3 3.6 3.7 1.1 1.0 3.2 2.9 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.2 Oct-21 1.9 1.7 2.2 1.5 2.6 1.8 1.9 4.2 3.1 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.6 Nov-21 3.0 2.9 3.1 3.9 3.3 2.2 3.0 3.8 4.1 1.1 1.8 1.7 2.2 Dec-21 -0.02 0.3 -0.5 -2.3 -3.1 2.0 1.9 -0.2 0.3 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 Jan-22 0.4 0.1 0.9 -0.8 0.4 0.6 1.4 0.6 -0.2 0.8 1.2 0.5 1.1 Feb-22 1.2 0.9 1.5 2.2 2.6 0.2 0.4 1.9 1.3 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.2 Mar-22 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.8 2.3 -0.1 -0.2 3.9 0.6 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.8 Apr-22 1.6 1.6 1.6 3.7 2.8 0.3 0.5 3.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 0.9 0.9 May-22 0.4 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.3 -0.1 0.0 1.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.8 1.4 Jun-22 6.3 6.2 6.6 5.3 6.0 6.8 7.1 8.2 8.1 2.0 2.3 3.5 4.3 Jul-22 4.3 4.5 4.2 4.3 3.7 4.6 4.6 2.0 7.7 1.2 1.6 2.7 2.7 Aug-22 2.5 2.6 2.2 1.6 1.2 3.3 3.1 3.1 5.6 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.8 * Non-Food Non-Energy, ** SPI for all expenditure groups combined         29
  31. 30   Inflation Monitor, August 2022 Table A1: National CPI Inflation by Groups (YoY and MoM in percent) Groups Weights MoM change YoY change Aug-21 Jul-22 Aug-22 Aug-21 Jul-22 Aug-22 34.6 0.7 4.1 1.3 10.0 28.8 29.5 1.0 0.0 4.1 2.7 2.1 22.5 25.8 8.6 0.1 1.1 2.8 9.3 14.6 17.6 23.6 0.7 8.8 5.5 8.0 21.8 27.6 4.1 0.5 1.7 2.3 9.6 19.7 21.9 Health 2.8 0.6 0.2 1.2 8.5 11.2 11.9 Transport 5.9 0.7 5.7 -0.3 8.1 64.7 63.1 Communication 2.2 0.0 0.4 0.1 2.8 1.2 1.2 Recreation & Culture 1.6 0.8 1.6 6.3 6.4 15.4 21.8 Education 3.8 0.9 0.5 1.1 2.9 9.8 10.0 Restaurants & Hotels Miscellaneous 6.9 4.9 0.3 0.3 2.9 1.6 2.3 2.7 7.3 5.9 25.0 17.2 27.4 20.0 Overall National CPI 100.0 0.6 4.3 2.5 8.4 24.9 27.3 Food & Non-Alcoholic Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco Clothing & Footwear Housing, Water, Elec, Gas & other Fuels Furnishing & Household Equip. Maintenance etc Table A2: Urban CPI Inflation by Groups (YoY and MoM in percent) MoM change YoY change Weights Groups Aug-21 Jul-22 Aug-22 Aug-21 Jul-22 Aug-22 I. Food Group 36.8 0.5 4.3 1.6 10.2 27.4 28.8 Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages 30.4 0.6 4.3 1.4 10.6 27.8 28.9 Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco Restaurant & Hotels (Food C ) Group II. Non-Food 0.9 5.5 63.2 8.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 2.9 4.3 4.6 1.0 3.4 2.4 3.3 3.4 2.8 9.3 7.2 10.3 21.7 26.0 21.3 15.0 25.8 28.7 24.7 18.8 27.0 0.5 8.6 5.2 7.2 19.2 24.8 4.1 0.4 1.5 2.3 9.4 18.2 20.3 2.3 6.1 2.4 1.7 4.9 0.6 0.7 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.1 5.6 0.4 1.2 0.3 1.6 -0.2 0.0 6.3 0.7 9.1 8.8 3.8 5.5 2.5 10.8 63.8 1.1 13.9 10.5 11.8 62.4 1.2 20.4 10.1 1.9 0.0 0.1 2.0 2.4 20.9 23.3 4.8 100.0 0.5 0.5 1.4 4.5 3.4 2.6 6.1 8.3 16.8 23.6 20.1 26.2 Clothing & Footwear Housing, Water, Elec, Gas & other Fuels Furnishing & Household Equip. Maintenance etc Health Transport Communication Recreation & Culture Education Restaurants & Hotels (Non-food Component) Miscellaneous Overall Urban CPI
  32. State Bank of Pakistan   Table A3: Rural CPI Inflation by Groups (YoY and MoM in percent) Groups Weights I. Food Group Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages Alcoholic Beverages, Tobacco Restaurants and Hotels (Food Component) II. Non-Food Group Clothing and Footwear Housing, Water, Elec., Gas and Other Fuels Furnishing and Household Equip. Maintenance Health Transport Communication Recreation and Culture Education Restaurants and Hotels (Non-Food Component) Miscellaneous Rural CPI       YoY Change Aug-21 Jul-22 Aug-22 Aug-21 Jul-22 Aug-22 45.9 40.9 1.3 3.8 54.1 9.5 18.5 0.8 0.9 0.0 0.7 0.6 0.1 1.0 3.7 3.8 5.5 2.6 4.6 1.2 9.4 1.2 1.2 1.9 2.1 3.1 2.0 6.0 9.1 9.3 1.4 10.0 7.7 8.1 9.7 29.6 29.9 23.4 29.3 24.5 14.0 27.6 30.2 30.2 25.8 31.0 27.5 16.2 33.9 4.1 0.6 2.0 2.4 10.0 22.0 24.2 3.5 5.6 2.0 1.4 2.1 0.5 0.8 0.0 1.2 0.4 0.3 5.7 0.4 2.2 1.4 0.8 -0.5 0.2 6.4 2.8 7.8 6.9 1.0 8.0 4.5 11.7 66.3 1.2 18.2 7.2 12.0 64.2 1.4 24.3 9.8 2.4 0.7 1.4 2.9 1.3 17.8 20.5 5.0 0.1 0.7 2.0 4.2 1.9 2.2 5.7 8.4 17.7 26.9 19.7 28.8 100.0   MoM Change 31
  33. 32   Inflation Monitor, August 2022 Table A4: Top Ten Contributors to Urban CPI Inflation (YoY) – August 2022 Items/Contributors Weights YoY Change Aug-21 Aug-22 Weighted Contribution (%) A. Ranked by Weighted Contribution 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Electricity Charges Motor Fuel Milk Fresh Readymade Food Cooking Oil House Rent Vegetable Ghee Wheat Flour Transport Services Fresh Vegetables 4.56 2.91 7.11 5.52 1.10 19.26 1.03 3.01 1.75 1.53 Total B. Ranked by Percentage Change 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Electricity Charges Pulse Masoor Onions Motor Fuel Mustard Oil Gram Whole Cooking Oil Vegetable Ghee Pulse Gram Chicken 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 123.37 84.21 25.01 28.72 74.66 5.62 69.82 24.31 44.59 41.62 47.78 4.56 0.16 0.59 2.91 0.01 0.09 1.10 1.03 0.17 1.36 Total C. Ranked by Weights 9.16 15.82 10.64 9.33 33.96 6.05 36.34 9.36 -0.80 8.06 62.14 9.16 4.16 -1.36 15.82 33.11 5.18 33.96 36.34 6.32 20.47 123.37 114.34 90.54 84.21 81.16 77.23 74.66 69.82 60.25 59.89 11.98 House Rent Milk Fresh Readymade Food Education Electricity Charges Wheat Flour Appliances/Articles/Products Motor Fuel Cotton Cloth Meat 19.26 7.11 5.52 4.88 4.56 3.01 2.98 2.91 2.22 2.04 19.17 10.73 6.69 6.00 4.05 3.93 3.75 2.80 2.53 2.49 19.17 0.51 1.48 10.73 0.04 0.24 4.05 3.75 0.31 2.29 42.57 6.05 10.64 9.33 2.52 9.16 9.36 11.56 15.82 9.77 13.71 5.62 25.01 28.72 10.06 123.37 24.31 19.58 84.21 23.53 26.81 3.93 6.69 6.00 1.89 19.17 2.80 2.20 10.73 2.04 2.48 Total 54.49 57.93 Note: Weighted contribution is estimated by multiplying the weights by the price change of an item; this is then reported as a share in YoY change in Urban CPI, which is 26.2 percent in August 2022.    
  34. State Bank of Pakistan   Table A5: Top Ten Contributors to Urban CPI Inflation (MoM) in August 2022 Items/ Contributors Weights MoM Change Jul-22 Aug-22 Weighted Contribution (%) A. Ranked by Weighted Contribution 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Electricity Charges Fresh Vegetables Tomatoes Milk Fresh Readymade Food Appliances/Articles/Products Cotton Cloth Motor Vehicles Readymade Garments Liquefied Hydrocarbons Total B. Ranked by Percentage Change 4.56 1.53 0.35 7.11 5.52 2.98 2.22 0.81 1.32 0.51 26.91 39.35 25.14 -12.46 3.84 4.33 1.75 2.21 0.79 0.21 1.99 19.73 13.44 52.85 2.16 2.35 4.30 4.67 12.09 7.85 8.53 46.47 8.15 6.34 5.75 5.02 4.51 3.88 3.88 3.30 2.37 89.67 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0.35 4.56 0.17 1.53 0.12 0.81 0.16 0.67 0.05 0.51 8.93 -12.46 39.35 2.67 25.14 9.73 0.79 9.01 0.71 0.00 1.99 52.85 19.73 15.27 13.44 12.47 12.09 11.76 11.33 8.92 8.53 6.34 46.47 0.63 8.15 0.43 3.88 0.82 2.21 0.12 2.37 71.42 Tomatoes Electricity Charges Pulse Moong Fresh Vegetables Pulse Mash Motor Vehicles Pulse Masoor Textbooks Motor Vehicle Tax Liquefied Hydrocarbons Total C. Ranked by Weights 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 House Rent 19.26 1.47 0.00 0.00 Milk Fresh 7.11 3.84 2.16 5.75 Readymade Food 5.52 4.33 2.35 5.02 Education 4.88 0.31 0.66 1.11 Electricity Charges 4.56 39.35 19.73 46.47 Wheat Flour 3.01 6.34 0.79 0.92 Appliances/Articles/Products 2.98 1.75 4.30 4.51 Motor Fuel 2.91 7.35 -2.60 -5.09 Cotton Cloth 2.22 2.21 4.67 3.88 Meat 2.04 0.89 1.04 0.98 Total 54.49 63.55 Note: Weighted contribution is estimated by multiplying the weights by the price change of an item; this is then reported as a share in MoM change in Urban CPI, which is 2.6 percent in August 2022.         33
  35. 34   Inflation Monitor, August 2022 Table A6: Top and Bottom Fifteen Contributors to Urban CPI Inflation (YoY) in August 2022 Items/ Contributors Weights YoY Change Weighted Contribution (%) Aug-21 Aug-22 4.56 2.91 7.11 5.52 1.10 19.26 1.03 3.01 1.75 1.53 2.04 1.36 2.98 2.22 4.88 61.26 9.16 15.82 10.64 9.33 33.96 6.05 36.34 9.36 -0.80 8.06 13.71 20.47 11.56 9.77 2.52 123.37 84.21 25.01 28.72 74.66 5.62 69.82 24.31 44.59 41.62 26.81 59.89 19.58 23.53 10.06 19.17 10.73 6.69 6.00 4.05 3.93 3.75 2.80 2.53 2.49 2.48 2.29 2.20 2.04 1.89 73.04 1.33 1.11 1.08 0.01 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.07 0.03 0.05 0.10 0.05 1.88 0.04 5.84 11.28 9.83 0.00 3.19 9.64 7.10 8.54 11.13 0.00 1.43 7.62 7.40 1.13 2.54 5.85 -17.43 -15.69 0.00 5.75 3.04 12.15 22.42 12.81 4.21 13.13 8.92 5.82 16.61 0.52 21.68 -1.30 -0.76 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 -1.89 A. Ranked by Weighted Contribution Electricity Charges Motor Fuel Milk Fresh Readymade Food Cooking Oil House Rent Vegetable Ghee Wheat Flour Transport Services Fresh Vegetables Meat Chicken Appliances/Articles/Products Cotton Cloth Education Total Bottom 15 Contributors 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Condiments And Spices Sugar Gas Charges Therapeutic Appliances Gur Dental Services Major Tools & Equipments Postal Services Newspapers Carpets Motor Vehicle Tax Ice Cream Electrical Appliances Communication Services Dessert Preparation Total    
  36. State Bank of Pakistan   Table A7: Top and Bottom Fifteen Contributors to Urban CPI Inflation (MoM) in August 2022 Items/ Contributors Weights MoM Change Weighted Contribution (%) Jul-22 Aug-22 4.56 1.53 0.35 7.11 5.52 2.98 2.22 0.81 1.32 0.51 0.67 1.41 1.18 0.51 1.07 31.75 39.35 25.14 -12.46 3.84 4.33 1.75 2.21 0.79 0.21 1.99 0.71 2.45 5.16 8.09 0.44 19.73 13.44 52.85 2.16 2.35 4.30 4.67 12.09 7.85 8.53 11.33 3.88 3.94 7.53 4.60 46.47 8.15 6.34 5.75 5.02 4.51 3.88 3.88 3.30 2.37 2.21 2.10 1.88 1.82 1.78 99.46 1.44 1.36 2.91 1.03 1.75 0.59 0.61 0.39 1.11 0.43 1.08 0.53 0.07 0.02 1.88 15.20 -7.11 -3.02 7.35 5.11 4.53 13.65 9.76 0.00 1.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.52 -19.98 -11.54 -2.60 -0.74 -0.23 -0.17 -0.14 -0.22 -0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -10.97 -6.48 -5.09 -0.55 -0.15 -0.04 -0.04 -0.02 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -23.35 A. Ranked by Weighted Contribution 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Electricity Charges Fresh Vegetables Tomatoes Milk Fresh Readymade Food Appliances/Articles/Products Cotton Cloth Motor Vehicles Readymade Garments Liquefied Hydrocarbons Textbooks Washing Soap/Detergents/Match Rice Eggs Tailoring Total Bottom 15 Contributors 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Fresh Fruits Chicken Motor Fuel Vegetable Ghee Transport Services Onions Wheat Fish Sugar Woolen Readymade Garments Gas Charges Water Supply Newspapers Postal Services Communication Services Total         35
  37. 36   Inflation Monitor, August 2022 Table A8: Top and Bottom Fifteen Contributors to MoM Urban CPI Food Inflation in August 2022 Items/ Contributors Weights MoM Change Weighted Contribution (%) Jul-22 Aug-22 1.53 0.35 7.11 5.52 1.18 0.51 1.10 0.45 2.04 1.33 3.01 0.16 0.89 0.72 0.17 26.07 25.14 -12.46 3.84 4.33 5.16 8.09 7.66 10.87 0.89 1.22 6.34 9.01 1.38 2.63 2.67 13.44 52.85 2.16 2.35 3.94 7.53 2.34 4.99 1.04 1.94 0.79 11.76 2.78 2.97 15.27 8.15 6.34 5.75 5.02 1.88 1.82 1.76 1.06 0.98 0.95 0.92 0.82 0.79 0.77 0.63 37.64 1.44 1.36 1.03 0.59 0.61 0.39 1.11 0.01 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.33 0.09 0.10 0.12 7.32 -7.11 -3.02 5.11 13.65 9.76 0.00 1.26 1.61 0.91 2.86 0.92 1.02 2.49 0.32 4.59 -19.98 -11.54 -0.74 -0.17 -0.14 -0.22 -0.04 0.15 0.61 3.76 3.07 0.62 3.03 3.86 2.94 -10.97 -6.48 -0.55 -0.04 -0.04 -0.02 -0.01 0.00 0.01 0.05 0.05 0.07 0.12 0.13 0.15 -17.55 A. Ranked by Weighted Contribution 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Fresh vegetables Tomatoes Milk fresh Readymade food Rice Eggs Cooking oil Potatoes Meat Condiments and Spices Wheat flour Pulse masoor Beverages Cigarettes Pulse moong Total Bottom 15 Contributors 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Fresh fruits Chicken Vegetable ghee Onions Wheat Fish Sugar Mustard oil Gur Dessert preparation Beans Dry fruits Wheat products Ice cream Nimco Total    
  38. State Bank of Pakistan   Table A9: Top and Bottom Fifteen Contributors to MoM Urban CPI Non-Food Inflation in August 2022 Items/ Contributors Weights MoM Change Weighted Contribution (%) Jul-22 Aug-22 4.56 2.98 2.22 0.81 1.32 0.51 0.67 1.41 1.07 1.75 0.38 4.88 0.40 0.35 0.94 24.25 39.35 1.75 2.21 0.79 0.21 1.99 0.71 2.45 0.44 0.14 3.18 0.31 0.02 3.32 -0.53 19.73 4.30 4.67 12.09 7.85 8.53 11.33 3.88 4.60 2.04 7.53 0.66 5.94 7.29 1.77 46.47 4.51 3.88 3.88 3.30 2.37 2.21 2.10 1.78 1.26 1.12 1.11 1.08 0.96 0.82 76.86 2.91 1.75 1.08 0.43 0.53 0.07 0.02 1.88 19.26 0.01 0.01 0.05 0.24 0.34 0.03 28.60 7.35 4.53 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.52 1.47 0.00 0.92 1.40 0.15 0.32 0.21 -2.60 -0.23 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.20 0.34 0.33 0.16 0.12 2.09 -5.09 -0.15 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 -5.19 A. Ranked by Weighted Contribution 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Electricity charges Appliances/Articles/Products for Cotton cloth Motor vehicles Readymade garments Liquefied Hydrocarbons Textbooks Washing soap/detergents/match Tailoring Marriage Hall Charges Construction input items Education Doctor (MBBS) clinic fee stationery Personal Effects n.e.c. Total Bottom 15 Contributors 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Motor fuel Transport services Gas charges Woolen readymade garments Water supply Newspapers Postal services Communication Services House rent Therapeutic Appliances Major tools & equipments Plastic products Medical tests Household textiles Carpets Total         37
  39. 38   Inflation Monitor, August 2022 Table A10: Top Ten Contributors to Rural CPI Inflation (YoY) in August 2022 Items/ Contributors Weights YoY Change Weighted Contribution (%) Aug-21 Aug-22 3.44 2.49 2.38 10.38 3.47 3.80 4.48 1.80 2.09 3.43 37.76 9.16 14.62 36.91 8.57 1.38 10.03 9.51 -3.17 21.27 9.06 123.37 87.34 68.67 21.67 39.80 30.98 22.25 59.30 41.61 22.60 13.09 8.47 8.31 7.34 4.98 4.35 3.32 3.13 2.90 2.74 58.63 3.44 0.21 0.90 0.11 2.49 0.60 0.01 2.38 0.28 1.46 11.88 9.16 2.24 9.21 8.67 14.62 40.04 36.18 36.91 6.41 10.52 123.37 118.64 96.70 88.82 87.34 69.61 69.19 68.67 65.65 63.26 13.09 0.64 2.03 0.29 8.47 2.07 0.04 8.31 0.51 2.44 37.89 A. Ranked by Weighted Contribution 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Electricity Charges Motor Fuels Vegetable Ghee Milk Fresh Wheat Readymade Food Solid Fuel Transport Services Fresh Vegetables Wheat Flour Total B. Ranked by Percentage Change 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Electricity Charges Pulse Masoor Onions Gram Whole Motor Fuels Cooking Oil Mustard Oil Vegetable Ghee Pulse Gram Chicken Total C. Ranked by Weights 10.38 8.57 21.67 7.34 8.61 6.05 5.90 1.67 4.48 9.51 22.25 3.32 3.80 10.03 30.98 4.35 3.47 1.38 39.80 4.98 3.44 9.16 123.37 13.09 3.43 9.06 22.60 2.74 2.84 7.56 15.88 1.79 2.49 14.62 87.34 8.47 2.38 36.91 68.67 8.31 45.32 56.06 Total Note: Weighted contribution is estimated by multiplying the weights by the price change of an item; this is then reported as a share in YoY change in Rural CPI, which is 28.8 percent in August 2022. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10   Milk Fresh House Rent Solid Fuel Readymade Food Wheat Electricity Charges Wheat Flour Cotton Cloth Motor Fuels Vegetable Ghee  
  40. State Bank of Pakistan   Table A11: Top Ten Contributors to Rural CPI Inflation (MoM) in August 2022 Items/ Contributors Weights MoM Change Jul-22 Aug-22 Weighted Contribution (%) A. Ranked by Weighted Contribution 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Electricity Charges Fresh Vegetables Tomatoes Milk Fresh Condiments And Spices Liquefied Hydrocarbons Readymade Food Rice Transport Services Solid Fuel Total B. Ranked by Percentage Change 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Tomatoes Motor Vehicle Tax Electricity Charges Fresh Vegetables Pulse Mash Pulse Masoor Pulse Moong Besan Textbooks Pulse Gram Total C. Ranked by Weights 39.35 14.78 -13.44 2.75 2.33 4.62 2.57 6.12 3.71 1.08 19.73 19.62 30.02 1.19 7.73 6.97 2.09 3.57 3.68 1.44 40.69 16.84 5.86 5.04 4.73 4.01 3.92 3.32 3.11 2.71 90.23 0.51 0.02 3.44 2.09 0.15 0.21 0.25 0.07 0.50 0.28 7.52 -13.44 0.00 39.35 14.78 8.23 9.60 4.79 6.14 0.00 14.59 30.02 24.88 19.73 19.62 15.15 13.69 12.71 9.71 9.69 8.92 5.86 0.13 40.69 16.84 0.75 1.49 0.99 0.30 1.62 1.09 69.76 10.38 2.75 1.19 5.04 8.61 1.35 0.00 0.00 4.48 1.08 1.44 2.71 3.80 2.57 2.09 3.92 3.47 7.06 1.24 2.23 3.44 39.35 19.73 40.69 3.43 6.40 1.36 2.08 2.84 1.11 1.88 2.51 2.49 7.57 -3.16 -6.17 2.38 0.88 -2.86 -6.27 45.32 46.74 Total Note: Weighted contribution is estimated by multiplying the weights by the price change of an item; this is then reported as a share in MoM change in Rural CPI, which is 2.2 percent in August 2022. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10       Milk Fresh House Rent Solid Fuel Readymade Food Wheat Electricity Charges Wheat Flour Cotton Cloth Motor Fuels Vegetable Ghee 3.44 2.09 0.51 10.38 1.49 1.00 3.80 1.55 1.80 4.48 30.54   39
  41. 40   Inflation Monitor, August 2022 Table A12: Top and Bottom Fifteen Contributors to Rural CPI Inflation (YoY) in August 2022 Items/ Contributors Weights YoY Change Weighted Contribution (%) Aug-21 Aug-22 3.44 2.49 2.38 10.38 3.47 3.80 4.48 1.80 2.09 3.43 1.46 1.55 0.60 0.90 1.71 43.98 9.16 14.62 36.91 8.57 1.38 10.03 9.51 -3.17 21.27 9.06 10.52 6.44 40.04 9.21 16.13 123.37 87.34 68.67 21.67 39.80 30.98 22.25 59.30 41.61 22.60 63.26 35.29 69.61 96.70 26.08 13.09 8.47 8.31 7.34 4.98 4.35 3.32 3.13 2.90 2.74 2.44 2.41 2.07 2.03 1.84 69.42 2.03 0.01 0.02 0.15 0.06 0.01 1.65 0.02 0.06 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.14 4.26 10.06 0.00 2.40 8.10 3.14 8.74 0.78 7.84 7.41 8.01 -5.56 4.01 9.52 9.55 0.03 -16.29 0.00 0.10 0.17 0.73 9.60 0.16 12.40 4.12 19.11 24.88 30.49 19.42 22.72 7.08 -1.31 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 -1.18 A. Ranked by Weighted Contribution Electricity Charges Motor Fuels Vegetable Ghee Milk Fresh Wheat Readymade Food Solid Fuel Transport Services Fresh Vegetables Wheat Flour Chicken Rice Cooking Oil Onions Meat Total Bottom 15 Contributors 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Sugar Postal Services Newspapers Gur Water Supply Garbage Collection Communication Services Dental Services Ice Cream Dessert Preparation Motor Vehicle Tax Cleaning And Laundering Honey Major Tools and Equipments Accommodation Services Total    
  42. State Bank of Pakistan   Table A13: Top and Bottom Fifteen Contributors to Rural CPI (MoM) Inflation in August 2022 Items/ Contributors Weights MoM Change Weighted Contribution (%) Jul-22 Aug-22 3.44 2.09 0.51 10.38 1.49 1.00 3.80 1.55 1.80 4.48 2.84 0.74 2.25 1.92 1.54 39.83 39.35 14.78 -13.44 2.75 2.33 4.62 2.57 6.12 3.71 1.08 1.11 19.94 1.49 0.69 3.30 19.73 19.62 30.02 1.19 7.73 6.97 2.09 3.57 3.68 1.44 1.88 5.51 2.91 3.30 3.10 40.69 16.84 5.86 5.04 4.73 4.01 3.92 3.32 3.11 2.71 2.51 2.46 2.42 2.30 2.24 102.16 1.45 1.46 2.38 2.49 0.60 2.03 0.01 0.54 0.06 0.01 0.02 0.01 1.65 0.26 8.61 21.58 -5.11 4.82 0.88 7.57 -0.77 0.28 -0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.48 0.16 1.81 1.35 -24.28 -13.64 -2.86 -3.16 -2.54 -0.31 -1.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -16.87 -10.35 -6.27 -6.17 -1.37 -0.22 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -41.26 A. Ranked by Weighted Contribution Electricity Charges Fresh Vegetables Tomatoes Milk Fresh Condiments And Spices Liquefied Hydrocarbons Readymade Food Rice Transport Services Solid Fuel Cotton Cloth Potatoes Marriage Hall Charges Footware Personal Grooming Services Total Bottom 15 Contributors 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Fresh Fruits Chicken Vegetable Ghee Motor Fuels Cooking Oil Sugar Mustard Oil Woolen Readymade Garments Water Supply Postal Services Newspapers Garbage Collection Communication Services Fish House Rent Total         41
  43. 42   Inflation Monitor, August 2022 Table A14: Top and Bottom Fifteen Contributors to MoM Rural CPI Food Inflation in August 2022 Items/ Contributors Weights MoM Change Weighted Contribution (%) Jul-22 Aug-22 2.09 0.51 10.38 1.49 3.80 1.55 0.74 3.47 3.43 0.57 0.90 1.71 0.21 0.28 0.25 31.38 14.78 -13.44 2.75 2.33 2.57 6.12 19.94 7.06 6.40 9.05 7.15 0.38 9.60 14.59 4.79 19.62 30.02 1.19 7.73 2.09 3.57 5.51 1.24 1.36 6.55 4.26 1.88 13.69 8.92 12.71 16.84 5.86 5.04 4.73 3.92 3.32 2.46 2.23 2.08 1.96 1.76 1.71 1.49 1.09 0.99 55.49 1.45 1.46 2.38 0.60 2.03 0.01 0.26 0.06 0.01 0.04 0.03 0.11 0.33 0.11 0.09 8.98 -5.11 4.82 0.88 -0.77 0.28 -0.04 1.81 0.00 5.10 5.86 0.73 0.82 0.97 5.04 1.88 -24.28 -13.64 -2.86 -2.54 -0.31 -1.18 0.00 0.32 2.31 0.50 1.56 3.28 0.82 3.31 3.57 -16.87 -10.35 -6.27 -1.37 -0.22 -0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.12 0.12 0.16 0.17 -34.46 A. Ranked by Weighted Contribution Fresh Vegetables Tomatoes Milk fresh Condiments and Spices Readymade Food Rice Potatoes Wheat Wheat Flour Eggs Onions Meat Pulse Masoor Pulse Gram Pulse Moong Total Bottom 15 Contributors 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Fresh fruits Chicken Vegetable ghee Cooking oil Sugar Mustard oil Fish Ice Cream Dessert Preparation Pan Prepared Honey Milk powder Butter Wheat Products Beans Total
  44. State Bank of Pakistan   Table A15: Top and Bottom Fifteen Contributors to MoM Rural CPI Non-Food Inflation in August 2022 Items/ Contributors Weights MoM Change Weighted Contribution (%) Jul-22 Aug-22 3.44 1.00 1.80 4.48 2.84 2.25 1.92 1.54 2.13 1.70 0.50 1.28 1.30 0.48 1.13 27.78 39.35 4.62 3.71 1.08 1.11 1.49 0.69 3.30 1.43 1.72 0.00 2.38 2.03 3.76 0.26 19.73 6.97 3.68 1.44 1.88 2.91 3.30 3.10 2.81 2.52 9.69 2.64 2.32 6.75 2.40 40.69 4.01 3.11 2.71 2.51 2.42 2.30 2.24 2.18 1.84 1.62 1.50 1.29 1.27 1.10 70.79 2.49 0.01 0.54 0.06 0.02 0.01 1.65 8.61 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.08 0.21 0.40 0.34 14.48 7.57 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.48 0.16 1.35 0.85 0.00 1.35 3.62 0.88 0.07 1.14 -3.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.55 3.42 3.25 1.44 0.96 0.53 0.86 -6.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.08 0.08 0.09 -5.78 A. Ranked by Weighted Contribution Electricity Charges Liquefied Hydrocarbons Transport Services Solid Fuel Cotton Cloth Marriage Hall Charges Footwear Personal Grooming Services Education Washing Soaps, Detergents and Textbooks Household Equipments Tailoring Recreation and Culture Readymade Garments Total Bottom 15 Contributors 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15       Motor Fuels Postal Services Woolen Readymade Garments Water Supply Newspapers Garbage Collection Communication Services House Rent Dental Services Cleaning and Laundering Major Tools and Equipments Plastic Products Dopatta Medical Tests Communication Apparatus Total   43
  45.   Inflation Monitor, August 2022 Decrease or no change Chilies Powder National 200 Gm Packet, Ginger (Adrak), Sugar Refined, Cardamom Small (Average Quality), Cumin Seed (Zeera) White National 50 Gm Packet, Kinnu (Average Quality), Furnishing & Housing, Water, Household Equip. Elec, Gas & other Maintenance etc Fuels Clothing & Footwear Groups Alcoholic Food & NonBeverages Alcoholic & Beverages Tobacco Table A16: Distribution of Price Changes (YoY) - Selected Urban CPI Items: August 2022 Subdued increase (Greater Moderate increase than 0% but less than 5%) (5% but less than 10%) Turmeric Powder National 50 Gm Ice Cream Walls Cup (Large Size), Packet, Coriander Seed Powder National Tomato Ketchup Mitchells/National 200 Gm Packet, Gur (Average Quality), 1 Kg Polybag, Jam-E-Shireen Standard Size (800 Ml), Pepper Black National 50 Gm Packet, Cheetah 50 Size 3-5 Servis, Gents Shoes Servis, Children Shoes Power Lite Bata, Gas Charges Upto 3.3719 Mmbtu , Gas Charges 3.3719 - 6.7438 Mmbtu , Gas Charges 6.7438 - 10.1157 Mmbtu , Gas Charges 10.1157 - 13.4876 Mmbtu , Gas Charges Above 13.4876 Mmbtu, Gas Charges Combined, Pullover Gents Oxford/Bonanza, Linen, Ladies (Average Quality), Dopatta Cotton (Average Quality), Shirt Boy Length 24"/26", Dopatta Geogette (Average Quality), Water Charges Per House, House Rent Combined, Bed Sheet Double With Two Pillow Covers (Superior Quality), Water Set (Omroc) 6 Glasses + Jug, Finis 400 Ml Bottle, Blanket Single (Sn), Bed Sheet Single (Superior Quality), Sewing Machine (Sn) Without Cover, Towel Medium Size (3' X 2'), Dining Table Wit Glass Top And Six Chairs (Average Sugar Test (Random/Fasting) Charges Of Electronic Bp Checking Apparatus, Both, Ventolin Tablets 2 Mg, Blood Test Gynecologist Fee Per Visit, Cost Of (Cp) Charges, Surgery (C-Section), Septran Tablets, Glucometer, Amoxil Capsule 250 Mg, Lederplex Syrup Bottle, Phenergan Syrup 120 Ml Bottle, Physiotherapist Fee Per Visit, Car Tax 800 Cc To 1500 Cc, Health Hydryllin Syrup 120 Ml Bottle, Mobile Call Charges, Telephone Call Charges, Internet Charges (Dsl) 1 Mb (Unlimited), Mobile Set With Rear Camera And Without Touch Screen, Newspaper Daily Jang, Mag The Weekly English Book Ba/B.Sc, Urdu Book Akhbar-E-Jehan Weekly, (Magazine), Ba/B.Sc, Cable Charges, Restaurant & Hotels     Double digit increase (10% or more) Fish Rahu (Medium Size), Almonds (Badam) Kaghazi With Shell (Average Quality), Wheat Flour Bag, Pulse Moong (Washed), Potatoes, Powdered Milk Nido 390 Gm Polybag, Cardamom Large (Loose) Pan Prepared (Sweet With Beetle Nuts), Cigarettes Capstan 20'S Packet, Cigarettes Gold Leaf 20'S Packet, Tailoring Charges Pant (Men), Women Shalwar Kameez (Average Quality), Vest "Baniyan" For Men Average Quality, Pullover Ladies Oxford/Bonanza, Brassier (Average Quality), Pant Cloth Wash & Wear (Average Quality), Awami Suit Gents Wash & Wear (Average Quality), Full Pant Boy Length 24"/26", Heavy Weight Suiting Lawrance Pur (Average Quality), Pullover Bricks New 1St Class, Painter Wage Rate, Firewood Whole, Mason Wage Rate, Electrician Charges, Plumber Wage Rate, Charges For Refuse/Waste Collection, Unskilled Labor Wage Rate, Cement Blocks (6"X8"X12"), Synthetic Enamel Ici Balti 3.64 Litre, Sand (Black Pit), Iron Bars (M.S. Readymade Quilt (3 Kg), Cot Iron (Charpai), Central Table Set With Glass Top, Dinner Set Plastic 72 Pieces Super Quality, Plain Carpet, Cleanser Powder Vim 900 Gm Polybag, Match Box, Phenyl Tyfon/Finis 2.75 Litre Bottle, Chair Plastic (Chairman) (Average Quality), Household Dental Surgeon Fee Per Visit, Inderal Tablets 10 Mg, Glaxose-D 400 Gm Packet, Dental Extraction Fee, Entox Tablets, Betnovate-N Ointment 10 Gm Tube, Urine Test (Dr) Charges, Johar Joshanda Instant (Sachet) Packet, Ultrasound Abdominal, Dettol Medium Bottle, Doctor (Mbbs) Motorcycle Service Charges, Car Service Charges, Train Fare Business Class Per Person, Tire Car Puncture Charges, Tire Motorcycle Cd 70 (Back Wheel), Train Fare Ac Sleeper Per Person, Tire Car Mehran Tubeless (General), Train Fare Ac Lower Per Person, Car Toyota 1300 Cc Xli, Suzuki Courier Charges Minimum Within Zone Outside City (Tcs), Led Sony/Samsung 32" Colored, Personal Computer With Led Monitor (17") Dell/Hp/Acer Core I5, Laptop Dell/Hp/Acer Core I5, Display (14'-15'), Mathematics Book Class Xi (Text Book Board), English Book Class Vi, Newspaper Daily Dawn, Mathematics Book Class Ix And X (Text Government College Fee First Year, Tuition Fee Private University Private School Fee English Medium Government University Fee M.S.C / M.Sc./M.A, Government Medical Average Standard (Class Vi), Private M.A., Coaching Fee For Class Xi/Xii College/University Tuition Fee For School Fee English Medium Average Science Group, Coaching Fee For Class Mbbs (1St Year), Standard (Class I), Private School Fee Xi/Xii Commerce Group, Coaching Fee English Medium Average Standard (Class Government Hostel Accommodation Fee Marriage Hall Charges With Furniture, For Intermediate College Per Student, Cooked Chicken At Average Hotel, Marriage Hall Service Charges With Food (Average Meal), Seekh Kabab (Beef) (Average Quality), Chicken Roast (Full) (Average Quality), Pizza Chicken Medium Purse Ladies Medium Size (Average Shampoo Sun Silk/Pantene 90 Ml Hair Style Charges (At Average Beauty Quality), Wall Clock Quartz (Average Bottle, Lipstick Swiss Miss/Medora Parlor), Disposable Razor Gillette Blue Ii, Quality), (Medium), Blade Treet Ordinary (10 Suitcase Ragzine (24"X16"X6") (Average No. Packet), Nail Polish Swiss Quality), Silver Tezabi 24 Carett, Talcum Miss/Medora (Medium), Tissue Powder Viceroy/Black Cat Large Size, Hair Paper Perfumed Box 100 Napkins, Removing Cream (Eu-Cream) 30Ml Tube, Artificial Jewelry (Locket Set) Tooth Paste Colgate 75 Gm, Electric Hair Education Recreation & Culture Commu nication Transport Car Suzuki 800 Cc Without Ac, Miscellaneous 44  
  46. State Bank of Pakistan   Table A17: Distribution of Price Changes (YoY) - Selected Rural CPI Items: August 2022 Communic ation Transport Health Furnishing & Housing, Water, Household Elec, Gas & Equip. other Fuels Maintenance etc Clothing & Footwear Alcoholic Food & NonBeverages Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco Groups Decrease or no change Ginger (Adrak), Sugar Refined, Chilies Powder Loose, Subdued increase (Greater Moderate increase (5% than 0% but less than 5%) but less than 10%) Gur (Average Quality), Jam-E-Shireen Standard Size (800 Ml), Ice Cream Walls Cup (Large Size), Full Pant Boy Length 24"/26", Pullover Gents (Average Quality), Foottware Children Local (Average Quality), Dopatta Geogette (Average Quality), Lawn Printed (Average Quality), Shirting (Average Quality), Shirt Boy Length 24"/26", Foottware Ladies Local (Average Quality), Long Cloth, School Uniform Boys (Pant & Shirt) 24"/26", Linen, Ladies (Average Painter Wage Rate, Plumber Wage Rate, Carpenter Wage Rate, Mason Wage Rate, House Rent Combined, Charges For Water Charges Per House, Electrician Charges, Unskilled Labor Wage Refuse/Waste Collection, Rate, Bricks New 1St Class, Firewood Whole, Coal, Lpg 11.67 Kg Cylinder, Sand (Black Pit), Bajri, Cement (Local) 50 Kg Cleanser Powder Vim 900 Gm Water Set (Omroc) 6 Glass, Blanket Single Polybag, Finis 400 Ml Bottle, Boot (Sn), Robin Blue Liquid 75 Ml Bottle, Polish Cherry/Kiwi 42 Ml, Refrigerator Dawlance/Pel 10 Cubic Feet Double Door, Bucket (Balti) Plastic Medium Size, Washing Machine With Spinner (Super Asia Or Similar Brand) Hydryllin Syrup 120 Ml Bottle, Blood Cost Of Surgery (C-Section), Inderal Amoxil Capsule 250 Mg, Dental Surgeon Test (Cp) Charges, Tablets 10 Mg, Physiotherapist Fee Fee Per Visit, Dettol Medium Bottle, Doctor Per Visit, Daonil Tablets 5 Mg, X- (Mbbs) Clinic Fee, Johar Joshanda Instant Ray (Chest) Charges, Cac 1000 (Sachet) Packet, Panadol Tablets Plain, Tablets Sandoz Bottle, Car Suzuki 800 Cc Without Ac, Motorcycle Service Charges, Tire Cycle, Car Tax 800 Cc To 1500 Cc, Tire Motorcycle Cd 70 (Back Wheel), Motorcycle Honda Cd 70, Tire Car Mehran Tubeless (General), Bicycle, Mobil Oil (Havoline 20W-50), Train Fare Economy Postal Registration Charges, Mobile Call Internet Charges (Dsl) 1 Mb (Unlimited), Mobile Set With Rear Camera And Charges, Telephone Call Charges, Without Touch Screen, Recreation & Culture Education Restaurant & Hotels Miscellaneous Government Hostel Accommodation Fee For Intermediate College Per Student,       more) Potatoes, Grapes (Angoor) (Average Quality), Powdered Milk Nido 390 Gm Polybag, Fish Fresh, Cold Drink (Pepsi/Coca-Cola) 1.5 Liter Bottle, Fruit Juice Small Packet 250 Ml, Almonds (Badam) Kaghazi With Shell (Average Quality), Groundnuts (Moong Phali) With Cigarettes Gold Leaf 20'S Packet, Tobacco Hukka Twisted, Cigarettes Capstan 20'S Packet, Pan Prepared (Sweet With Beetle Nuts), Chewing Tobacco (Niswar), Foottware Gents Local (Average Quality), Chaddar (Wash-N-Wear) (2X2.5 Meter), Newspaper Daily Jang,   Double digit increase (10% or   Personal Computer With Led Monitor (17") Dell/Hp/Acer Core I5, Cable Charges, Led Sony/Samsung 32" Colored, Urdu Books Class Ix And X (Text Book Board), English Books Class Vi, English Books Class Xi Complete Set, Exercise Book (With Lines) 80 To 100 Pages, English Books Class Ix And X, Ballpoint Pen Local, Urdu Books Class V (Text Book Board) Lead Pencil Goldfish Pets Feed Private School Fee English Medium Coaching Fee For Class Ix/X Science Average Standard (Class I), Private Group, School Fee English Medium Average Standard (Class Vi), Private School Fee English Medium Average Standard (Class V), Vocational Training Basic Computer Marriage Hall Charges With Furniture, Marriage Hall Service Charges With Food (Average Meal), Chicken Roast (Full) (Average Quality), Chicken Biryani Full/Double, Pizza Chicken Medium Size (Average Quality), Private Hostel Blade Treet Ordinary (10 No. Shampoo Sun Silk/Pantene 90 Ml Bottle, Packet), Tooth Paste Colgate 75 Gm, Purse Ladies Medium Size (Average Quality), Disposable Razor Gillette Blue Ii, Talcum Powder Viceroy/Black Cat, Shaving Cream (Touchme Large/Admiral), Tooth Brush (Shield), Hair Color (Kala Kola), Suitcase Ragzine (24"X16"X6") 45
  47.   Inflation Monitor, August 2022 Table A18: Distribution of Price Changes (YoY) - WPI Items: August 2022 Other Transportable Goods except Metal Products, Machinery and Equipments Food, Beverages, Tobacco, Textile, Apparel and Leather Product Ores/Minerals, Elec., Agriculture Forestry & Gas & Water Fisher Product Groups Metal Product, Machinery & Equipments 46 Decrease or no change Subdued increase (Greater than 0% but less than 5%) Stimulant & Spice Crops, Millet / Bajra, Spices, Sugar Refined, Nylon Yarn, Natural Gas Liquified, Salt & Pure Sodium Chloride, Coal not Agglomerated, Electrical Energy, Woolen Carpets, Ice Cream, Sugar Confectionary, Chocolate, Quilts, Other Glass Articles, Plastic Products, Steel Products, Engines & Motors,     Dry Fruits, Cotton Seeds, Unmanufactured Tobacco, Edible Roots / Potatoes, Sugar Crops, Rice, Fresh Fruits, Sorghum / Jowar, Raw Milk from Bovine Animals, Maize, Hides, Skins & Fur Skins, Raw, Fiber Crops, Other Oil Seeds, Pesticides, Vacuum Pumps,   Double digit increase (10% or more) Fish Live Fresh or Chilled, Raw Animal Materials / Wool, Fuel Wood in Logs, Blankets, Other Food Products, Other Leather N.E.C, Bed Sheets, Hard Board, Dyeing Material, Insecticides, Moderate increase (5% but less than 10%) Fruit Juices, Towels, Leather Without Hair, Synthetic Carpets, Dried Fruits & Nuts, Beverages, Cotton Fabrics, Blended Yarn, Woven Fabrics, Dairy Products N.E.C, Hosiery Products, Vegetables & Fruit Juice, Cotton Yarn, Medicines, Bricks, Blocks & Tiles, Timber, Matches, Printing Paper, Ceramics & Sanitary Fixture, Soaps & Detergents, Paints & Varnishes, Mobil Oil, Auto Tyres, Cement, Glass sheets, Bed Foam, Fridge,WashM,SewM,Fans,Iron, Radio & Television, Electric Wires, Steel Bar & Sheets, Bicycles, Motor Vehicles, Motorcycles, Lighting Equipments, Air Conditioners, Tractors, Lathe Machines, Pipe Fittings, Cultivators,
  48. State Bank of Pakistan   Table A19: International Commodity Prices/Indices Jun-21 Commodity/Indices Energy Crude Oil (US$ per barrel)* Energy Index (2010 = 100) Food Rice ($/MT) Wheat ($/MT)## Sugar (US cent/ pound)^ Palm Oil ($/MT) Soybean Oil ($/MT) Non-Food Non-Energy Cotton Outlook 'A' Index #^ Metal Price Index (2010 = Copper ($/MT) Aluminum ($/MT) Iron Ore ($ cents/dry MT) Tin ($/MT) Nickel ($/MT) Zinc ($/MT) Lead ($/MT) Uranium ($/MT)@ DAP ($/MT) Urea ($/MT) Aug-21 Jul-22 Aug-22 71.8 93.9 68.9 96.3 105.1 168.8 96.0 171.0 466.0 263.5 17.4 1,004.4 1,518.2 403.0 276.2 19.5 1,141.8 1,433.9 418.0 316.7 18.3 1,056.6 1,533.4 431.0 .. 17.8 1,026.0 1,598.8 94.5 119.0 9,631.5 2,446.7 214.4 101.3 120.9 9,370.1 2,603.0 162.2 131.0 106.1 7,544.8 2,408.4 108.6 124.4 110.6 7,981.8 2,430.8 108.9 32,502.6 17,979.6 2,951.9 2,191.0 32.3 604.8 393.3 35,024.0 19,141.3 2,988.0 2,414.5 34.3 603.1 446.9 25,395.8 21,481.9 3,105.4 1,985.2 47.8 784.0 601.0 24,647.5 22,057.4 3,587.6 2,072.7 51.3 749.4 591.3 Source: World Bank for all variables / indices except Uranium which is taken from Cameco (World Largest Uranium Producer) @ Data has been taken from Cameco website, as it is not available in World Bank dataset. .. Not Available by source ^ The measurement unit for sugar and Cotton is US cent/ pound in IMF data source, whereas it is US dollar / kg in World bank dataset. The result of two datasets can be reconciled using conversion formula: 1US $ / kilogram = $/MT = US$ per metric tonne. * Crude Oil (Petroleum), simple average of three spot prices; Dated Brent, West Texas Intermediate, and the Dubai fateh # Middling 1-3/32 inch staple, Liverpool Index "A", average of the cheapest Cts/lb five of fourteen styles, CIF Liverpool (Cotton Outlook, Liverpool). From Jun 1968 to August 1981 strict middling 1-1/16 inch staple. Prior to 1968, Mexican 1-1/16.2/ ## Wheat, US HRW (Hard Red Winter) is not being reported by World Bank. Hence, it has been replaced with Wheat, US SRW (Soft Red Winter). DAP: Di-ammonium Phosphate           47
  49. 48   Inflation Monitor, August 2022 Table A20: National CPI Data Series Original and Seasonally Adjusted Original Series Period Aug FY19 114.29 113.93 FY20 123.86 125.89 FY21 135.38 136.23 FY22 146.76 147.61 Sep 113.90 126.86 138.32 150.74 Oct 116.32 129.16 140.67 153.61 Nov 116.18 130.90 141.83 158.18 Dec 115.82 130.45 140.86 158.16 Jan 116.12 133.04 140.56 158.78 Feb 117.12 131.64 143.09 160.61 Mar 119.46 131.69 143.61 161.88 Apr 120.33 130.59 145.09 164.50 May 121.05 131.01 145.24 165.23 Jun 121.63 132.08 144.82 175.71 Seasonally Adjusted Series 123.81 135.40 125.91 136.34 146.84 147.80 Jul Aug 114.17 113.86 Sep 113.53 126.49 137.96 150.37 Oct 115.22 127.91 139.28 152.06 Nov 114.86 129.32 140.02 156.10 Dec 115.61 130.14 140.44 157.62 Jan 116.37 133.32 140.87 159.13 Feb 117.74 132.24 143.66 161.16 Mar 120.09 132.32 144.24 162.55 Apr 120.43 130.72 145.26 164.70 May 121.81 131.86 146.20 166.33 Jun 122.58 133.20 146.17 177.47 Jul       FY23 183.35 187.84 183.53 188.14
  50. State Bank of Pakistan       Table A21: Urban CPI Data Series Original and Seasonally Adjusted Original Series Period     Jul Aug FY19 114.94 114.58 FY20 124.95 126.77 FY21 134.73 135.82 FY22 146.41 147.12 Sep 114.49 127.72 137.53 150.08 Oct 117.04 129.75 139.27 152.59 Nov 116.94 131.05 140.16 156.96 Dec 116.57 130.57 139.67 157.46 Jan 117.07 132.77 139.45 157.56 Feb 118.08 131.32 142.61 159.03 Mar 120.29 131.49 142.99 160.07 Apr 121.29 130.60 144.91 162.63 May 122.11 130.99 145.19 163.13 Jun 122.52 131.89 144.55 173.23 Jul Aug 114.68 114.41 Seasonally Adjusted Series 124.75 134.60 126.69 135.83 146.33 147.22 Sep 114.18 127.42 137.25 149.81 Oct 116.18 128.79 138.23 151.44 Nov 115.92 129.84 138.81 155.39 Dec 116.59 130.51 139.52 157.22 Jan 117.40 133.15 139.85 158.01 Feb 118.73 131.94 143.21 159.62 Mar 120.94 132.13 143.63 160.73 Apr 121.12 130.43 144.71 162.39 May 122.53 131.44 145.68 163.67 Jun 123.28 132.80 145.65 174.67 FY23 180.97 185.72 180.96 185.91 49
  51. 50   Inflation Monitor, August 2022 Table A22: Rural CPI Data Series Original and Seasonally Adjusted Original Series Period Jul Aug FY19 113.30 112.96 FY20 122.22 124.56 FY21 136.36 136.84 FY22 147.28 148.34 Sep 113.01 125.55 139.51 151.74 Oct 115.23 128.28 142.79 155.15 Nov 115.03 130.67 144.34 160.03 Dec 114.70 130.28 142.65 159.21 Jan 114.68 133.44 142.23 160.62 Feb 115.68 132.13 143.82 162.99 Mar 118.21 132.00 144.55 164.62 Apr 118.89 130.58 145.37 167.31 May 119.45 131.03 145.32 168.39 Jun 120.29 132.36 145.24 179.45 Jul Aug 113.41 113.04 Seasonally Adjusted Series 122.40 136.62 124.73 137.10 147.61 148.67 Sep 112.56 125.09 139.02 151.23 Oct 113.76 126.59 140.85 153.00 Nov 113.26 128.53 141.86 157.17 Dec 114.14 129.58 141.82 158.23 Jan 114.82 133.59 142.41 160.83 Feb 116.25 132.69 144.34 163.49 Mar 118.80 132.61 145.18 165.31 Apr 119.38 131.17 146.09 168.20 May 120.73 132.48 146.97 170.35 Jun 121.52 133.82 146.95 181.70 FY23 186.94 191.04 187.41 191.50
  52. State Bank of Pakistan   Table A23: National CPI Monthly & Average Seasonal Factors Period FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 100.10 100.04 99.98 99.94 Jul 100.06 99.98 99.92 99.87 Aug 100.32 100.29 100.26 100.24 Sep 100.96 100.97 101.00 101.02 Oct 101.15 101.22 101.29 101.33 Nov 100.18 100.24 100.30 100.34 Dec 99.78 99.79 99.78 99.78 Jan 99.47 99.55 99.60 99.66 Feb 99.48 99.52 99.56 99.59 Mar 99.92 99.90 99.88 99.88 Apr 99.37 99.36 99.34 99.34 May 99.23 99.16 99.08 99.01 Jun Table A24: Urban CPI Monthly & Average Seasonal Factors Period FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 100.23 100.16 100.10 100.05 Jul 100.15 100.06 99.99 99.93 Aug 100.27 100.23 100.21 100.18 Sep 100.74 100.75 100.75 100.76 Oct 100.88 100.93 100.98 101.01 Nov 99.99 100.05 100.10 100.15 Dec 99.72 99.72 99.71 99.72 Jan 99.45 99.53 99.58 99.63 Feb 99.46 99.51 99.56 99.59 Mar 100.14 100.13 100.14 100.15 Apr 99.65 99.66 99.66 99.67 May 99.38 99.32 99.25 99.18 Jun     FY23 99.90 99.84 Average 99.99 99.94 100.28 100.99 101.25 100.27 99.78 99.57 99.54 99.89 99.35 99.12 FY23 100.01 99.90 Average 100.11 100.01 100.22 100.75 100.95 100.07 99.72 99.55 99.53 100.14 99.66 99.28 51
  53. 52   Inflation Monitor, August 2022 Table A25: Rural CPI Monthly & Average Seasonal Factors Period Aug FY19 99.90 99.93 FY20 99.85 99.86 FY21 99.81 99.81 FY22 99.77 99.78 Sep 100.40 100.37 100.35 100.34 100.37 Oct 101.29 101.33 101.37 101.41 101.35 Nov 101.56 101.67 101.75 101.82 101.70 Dec 100.49 100.54 100.59 100.62 100.56 Jan 99.88 99.87 99.87 99.87 99.87 Feb 99.51 99.58 99.64 99.69 99.60 Mar 99.50 99.54 99.57 99.58 99.55 Apr 99.59 99.55 99.51 99.47 99.53 May 98.94 98.90 98.87 98.85 98.89 Jun 98.99 98.91 98.83 98.76 98.87 Jul FY23 99.75 99.76 Average 99.82 99.83
  54. State Bank of Pakistan   Table A26: National CPI (Month-on-Month) Original & Seasonally Adjusted Original Series     Period Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun FY19 1.51 -0.31 -0.03 2.12 -0.12 -0.31 0.26 0.86 2.00 0.73 0.60 0.48 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 0.69 -0.27 -0.29 1.48 -0.31 0.65 0.66 1.18 1.99 0.28 1.15 0.63 FY20 1.83 1.64 0.77 1.81 1.35 -0.34 1.99 -1.05 0.04 -0.84 0.32 0.82 FY21 2.50 0.63 1.53 1.70 0.82 -0.68 -0.21 1.80 0.36 1.03 0.10 -0.29 FY22 1.34 0.58 2.12 1.90 2.98 -0.02 0.39 1.15 0.79 1.62 0.44 6.34 FY23 4.35 2.45 Seasonally Adjusted Series 1.01 1.65 1.69 0.69 0.46 1.19 1.12 0.96 1.10 0.54 0.63 0.30 2.45 0.31 -0.81 1.98 0.06 0.41 -1.21 0.70 0.87 0.65 1.02 -0.02 0.46 0.65 1.74 1.12 2.65 0.98 0.96 1.27 0.86 1.32 0.99 6.70 3.42 2.51 53
  55. 54   Inflation Monitor, August 2022 Table A27: Urban CPI (Month-on-Month) Original & Seasonally Adjusted Series Original Series Period FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 1.41 1.98 2.15 1.29 4.47 Jul -0.31 1.46 0.81 0.48 2.62 Aug -0.08 0.75 1.26 2.01 Sep 2.23 1.59 1.27 1.67 Oct -0.09 1.00 0.64 2.86 Nov -0.32 -0.37 -0.35 0.32 Dec 0.43 1.68 -0.16 0.06 Jan 0.86 -1.09 2.27 0.93 Feb 1.87 0.13 0.27 0.65 Mar 0.83 -0.68 1.34 1.60 Apr 0.68 0.30 0.19 0.31 May 0.34 0.69 -0.44 6.19 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 0.61 -0.23 -0.20 1.75 -0.22 0.57 0.70 1.14 1.86 0.15 1.17 0.61 Seasonally Adjusted Series 1.19 1.36 1.56 0.92 0.58 1.04 1.07 0.72 0.81 0.42 0.52 0.52 2.02 0.23 -0.91 2.40 0.14 0.29 -1.29 0.75 0.78 0.67 1.03 -0.03 0.47 0.61 1.76 1.09 2.61 1.18 0.50 1.02 0.70 1.03 0.79 6.72 3.60 2.73
  56. State Bank of Pakistan   Table A28: Rural CPI (Month-on-Month) Original & Seasonally Adjusted Series Original Series Period FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 1.67 1.60 3.02 1.40 4.17 Jul -0.30 1.91 0.35 0.72 2.19 Aug 0.04 0.79 1.95 2.29 Sep 1.96 2.17 2.35 2.25 Oct -0.17 1.86 1.09 3.15 Nov -0.29 -0.30 -1.17 -0.51 Dec -0.02 2.43 -0.29 0.89 Jan 0.87 -0.98 1.12 1.48 Feb 2.19 -0.10 0.51 1.00 Mar 0.58 -1.08 0.57 1.63 Apr 0.47 0.34 -0.03 0.65 May 0.70 1.02 -0.06 6.57 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun     0.81 -0.33 -0.43 1.07 -0.44 0.78 0.60 1.24 2.19 0.49 1.13 0.66 Seasonally Adjusted Series 0.73 2.09 1.90 0.35 0.29 1.40 1.20 1.32 1.53 0.71 0.81 -0.03 3.10 0.42 -0.67 1.35 -0.06 0.58 -1.08 0.63 1.00 0.60 1.01 -0.01 0.45 0.72 1.72 1.17 2.73 0.67 1.65 1.65 1.11 1.75 1.28 6.66 3.15 2.18 55
  57.   Inflation Monitor, August 2022 List of Figures Figure A1: National CPI Non-food Inflation (YoY, 12MMA, MoM in percent) YoY 12mma MoM (RHS) Housing, Water, Elec, Gas and Other Fuels C lothing & Footwear 10 20 30 10 25 15 5 10 20 5 15 5 0 0 10 0 5 0 -5 -5 -10 -5 -5 -10 -15 -10 -15 10 20 -10 Furnishing & Household Equip. Maintenance e tc He alth 25 20 10 15 5 15 10 5 10 5 5 0 0 0 0 -5 -5 -5 -5 -10 -10 -10 -15 70 30 20 60 25 15 50 20 10 40 15 30 10 20 5 10 0 -15 -10 Communication Transport 0 -10 10 5 5 0 0 -5 -5 -10 -10 -15 -5 -10 Education Re cre ation & Culture 25 10 20 20 10 15 15 5 10 5 0 0 -5 -5 5 10 5 0 0 -5 -5 -10 Aug-22 Jun-22 Apr-22 Feb-22 Oct-21 Dec-21 Jun-21 Aug-21 Apr-21 Dec-20 Oct-20 -15 Aug-20 Jun-22 -10 Aug-22 Feb-22 Apr-22 Dec-21 Oct-21 Aug-21 Jun-21 Feb-21 Apr-21 Oct-20 Dec-20 -15 Feb-21 -10 -10 Aug-20 56  
  58. 57 State Bank of Pakistan   Figure A2: Urban CPI Non-food Inflation (YoY, 12MMA, MoM in percent) YoY 12mma MoM (RHS) Housing, Water, Elec, Gas and Other Fuels C lothing & Footwear 10 25 10 30 25 20 5 15 20 5 15 10 0 5 0 10 0 5 0 -5 -5 -10 -5 -5 -10 -15 -10 -15 10 20 -10 Furnishing & Household Equip. Maintenance e tc He alth 25 20 10 15 5 15 10 5 10 5 5 0 0 0 0 -5 -5 -5 -5 -10 -10 -10 -15 70 30 20 60 25 15 50 20 10 40 15 30 10 20 5 10 0 -15 -10 Communication Transport 0 -10 10 5 5 0 0 -5 -5 -10 -10 -15 -5 -10 Education Re cre ation & Culture 25 10 20 20 10 15 15 5 10 5 0 0 -5 -5 5 10 5 0 0 -5 -5 -10 Aug-22 Jun-22 Apr-22 Feb-22 Oct-21 Dec-21 Jun-21 Aug-21 Apr-21 Dec-20 Oct-20 -15 Aug-20 Jun-22 -10 Aug-22 Feb-22 Apr-22 Dec-21 Oct-21 Aug-21 Jun-21 Feb-21 Oct-20 Dec-20 Aug-20 -15 Apr-21 -10 Feb-21 -10      
  59.   Inflation Monitor, August 2022 Figure A3: Rural CPI Non-food Inflation (YoY, 12MMA, MoM in percent) YoY 12mma MoM (RHS) Housing, Water, Elec, Gas and Other Fuels C lothing & Footwear -10 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 10 20 10 20 15 5 10 5 0 0 -5 -5 -10 -15 10 5 0 -5 -10 Furnishing & Household Equip. Maintenance e tc He alth 30 25 10 15 20 5 15 5 10 5 10 0 0 5 0 0 -5 -5 -5 -5 -10 -10 -10 -15 70 30 20 60 25 15 50 20 10 40 15 30 10 20 5 10 0 -15 -10 Communication Transport 0 -10 10 5 5 0 0 -5 -5 -10 -10 -15 -5 -10 Education Re cre ation & Culture 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 10 20 10 15 5 0 -5 5 10 5 0 0 -5 -5 -10 Aug-22 Jun-22 Apr-22 Feb-22 Oct-21 Dec-21 Jun-21 Aug-21 Apr-21 Feb-21 Dec-20 Oct-20 -15 Aug-20 Jun-22 -10 Aug-22 Feb-22 Apr-22 Dec-21 Oct-21 Aug-21 Jun-21 Feb-21 Apr-21 Oct-20 Dec-20 -10 Aug-20 58  
  60. State Bank of Pakistan   Figure A4: Frequency Distribution of Price Changes of Urban CPI Items (YoY) Frequency (No. of items) % Cumulative frequency (RHS) 180 80 50 60 40 40 20 20 20 10 20 0 0 0 0 <‐8 ‐8 to ‐6 ‐6 to ‐4 ‐4 to ‐2 ‐2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 <‐8 ‐8 to ‐6 ‐6 to ‐4 ‐4 to ‐2 ‐2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 12-month ma food price changes 100 100 80 12-month ma non-food price changes 70 70 80 60 50 60 80 60 50 60 40 40 40 30 20 20 40 30 20 20 10 10 0 <‐8 ‐8 to ‐6 ‐6 to ‐4 ‐4 to ‐2 ‐2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 0 Price intervals in percent Total Ite ms in CPI Basket (356), Food Items (103) and non-Food Ite ms (253).     40 30 60   60 40 80 80 80 60 120 100 100 70 80 140 12-month ma price changes   0 0 <‐8 ‐8 to ‐6 ‐6 to ‐4 ‐4 to ‐2 ‐2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 160 100 YoY price changes Price intervals in percent 59
  61.   Inflation Monitor, August 2022 Figure A5: Frequency Distribution of Price Changes of Rural CPI Items (YoY) Frequency (No. of items) % Cumulative frequency (RHS) 140 100 YoY price changes 120 100 60 80 80 12-month ma price changes 100 70 80 80 60 50 60 40 60 40 40 20 20 0 0 20 20 12-month ma food price changes 0 0 <‐8 ‐8 to ‐6 ‐6 to ‐4 ‐4 to ‐2 ‐2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 <‐8 ‐8 to ‐6 ‐6 to ‐4 ‐4 to ‐2 ‐2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 100 100 80 12-month ma non-food price changes 70 70 80 60 50 60 80 60 50 60 40 40 40 30 20 20 40 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 Price intervals in percent Total Ite ms in CPI Basket (244), Food Items (94) and non-Food Items (150). 0 0 <‐8 ‐8 to ‐6 ‐6 to ‐4 ‐4 to ‐2 ‐2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 80 40 30 10 <‐8 ‐8 to ‐6 ‐6 to ‐4 ‐4 to ‐2 ‐2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 60 Price intervals in percent  
  62. State Bank of Pakistan   61 Figure A6: Frequency Distribution of Price Changes of Urban CPI Items (MoM) Frequency (No. of items) % Cumulative frequency (RHS) 250 100 MoM price changes 250 100 200 80 200 80 150 60 150 60 100 40 100 40 50 20 50 20 0 0 0 12-month ma food price changes (MoM) 0 <‐8 ‐8 to ‐6 ‐6 to ‐4 ‐4 to ‐2 ‐2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 <‐8 ‐8 to ‐6 ‐6 to ‐4 ‐4 to ‐2 ‐2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 100 100 350 12-month ma non-food price changes (MoM) 300 80 250 300 80 250 60 200 150 40 60 200 150 40 100 100 20 50 20 50 0 <‐8 ‐8 to ‐6 ‐6 to ‐4 ‐4 to ‐2 ‐2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 0 Price intervals in percent Total Ite ms in C PI Baske t (356), Food Ite ms (103) and non-Food Ite ms (253). 0 0 <‐8 ‐8 to ‐6 ‐6 to ‐4 ‐4 to ‐2 ‐2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 350     12-month ma price changes (MoM Price intervals in percent  
  63.   Inflation Monitor, August 2022 Figure A7: Frequency Distribution of Price Changes of Rural CPI Items (MoM) Frequency (No. of items) % Cumulative frequency (RHS) 140 100 160 MoM price changes 120 100 80 120 100 100 60 80 12-month ma price changes (MoM) 140 80 60 80 60 40 40 20 20 20 20 0 0 0 12-month ma food price changes (MoM) 0 <‐8 ‐8 to ‐6 ‐6 to ‐4 ‐4 to ‐2 ‐2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 <‐8 ‐8 to ‐6 ‐6 to ‐4 ‐4 to ‐2 ‐2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 100 100 350 12-month ma non-food price changes (MoM) 300 80 250 300 80 250 60 200 150 40 60 200 150 40 100 100 20 50 0 0 Price intervals in percent Total Ite ms in CPI Basket (244), Food Items (94) and non-Food Items (150). 20 50 0 0 <‐8 ‐8 to ‐6 ‐6 to ‐4 ‐4 to ‐2 ‐2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 350 40 60 40 <‐8 ‐8 to ‐6 ‐6 to ‐4 ‐4 to ‐2 ‐2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 62 Price intervals in percent  
  64. 63 State Bank of Pakistan   Figure A8: Frequency Distribution of Price Changes of WPI Commodities (YoY) Frequency (No. of items) % Cumulative frequency (RHS) 70 100 30 80 25 YoY price changes 60 50 60 40 12-month ma price changes 100 80 20 60 15 30 40 20 10 0 0 100 12-month ma food price changes 20 5 0 0 <‐8 ‐8 to ‐6 ‐6 to ‐4 ‐4 to ‐2 ‐2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 <‐8 ‐8 to ‐6 ‐6 to ‐4 ‐4 to ‐2 ‐2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 30 40 10 20 30 100 12-month ma non-food price changes 25 80 20 25 80 20 60 60 15 15 40 40 10 5 5 0 0 <‐8 ‐8 to ‐6 ‐6 to ‐4 ‐4 to ‐2 ‐2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 0 20 Price intervals in percent Total Ite ms in WPI Basket (110), Food Items (40) and non-Food Items (70).         20 0 <‐8 ‐8 to ‐6 ‐6 to ‐4 ‐4 to ‐2 ‐2 to 0 0 to 2 2 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 8 to 10 10 to 12 12 to 14 14 to 16 16 to 18 18 to 20 >20 10 Price intervals in percent  
  65. 64   Inflation Monitor, August 2022 Technical Notes, Definitions and Methodologies Technical Notes 1. All the three measures of inflation, viz. CPI (National, Urban and Rural), WPI and SPI are computed by the following Laspeyres Index formula: Pj  I t   w0j  t j  j  P0  Where It is price index, w 0j is weight of commodity j in the overall basket, Pt j is price of commodity j in period t and P0 j is its price in the base year. 2. Base year for all the indices is the year 2015-16. 3. CPI baskets for urban and rural areas contains 356 and 244 consumers’ items respectively; WPI basket contains 419 items; SPI contains 51 items. 4. YoY inflation is the percent change of an index in a given month over the index in the same month of the last year. It is computed as follows: t  ( It  1) 100 It 12 5. Period average inflation is the percent change of the average index during the period from August to the given month of a fiscal year over the average index during the corresponding period of the last year. It is computed as follows: t        t   i0 t  12   i0 I ti I t  12  i    1   100    Where v is the serial number of the month of August of current fiscal year in a given time series. 6. Monthly inflation is the percent change of an index in a given month over the index in the preceding month. It is computed as follows: t  ( It  1)  100 I t 1 7. 12-month moving average inflation (Long-run trend inflation) is the percent change of 12-month moving average of a price index; it is computed as follows:  11    I t i  i 0 ~   t  11  1  100     I t 12 i   i 0  8. Core Inflation is defined as the persistent component of measured inflation that excludes volatile and controlled prices. It reflects the normal supply and demand conditions in the economy. Core inflation is computed by the following two methods i.e. NFNE inflation and trimmed inflation:
  66. State Bank of Pakistan   a) Non-food, Non-energy inflation (NFNE inflation); it is computed by excluding food group and energy items (kerosene oil, petrol, diesel, CNG, electricity and natural gas) from the CPI basket. b) 20% trimmed-mean inflation; it is computed through the following steps: i. All CPI items are arranged in ascending order according to YoY/12-month moving average/monthly/period average changes in their price indices in a given month. ii. 20 percent of the items showing extreme changes are excluded with 10 percent of the items at the top of the list (corresponding to cumulative weight of 90% or more) and 10 percent of the items at the bottom of the list (corresponding to cumulative weight of 10 percent or less). iii. The weighted mean of the changes in price indices of the rest of the items is core inflation. 9. Weighted contribution of different items (or sub-groups) to total inflation is worked out as below: Let the overall index (It) is the weighted average of price indices of individual items or subgroups (Iit), i.e. It  w i  I it i The weighted contribution of a single item (or a sub-group) to overall inflation is defined as below:  C it   it 12  w i   it  t    Where C it : Contribution of ith item to the overall inflation  it 12  I it 12 ; i.e. ratio of item’s index to overall index in the I t 12 reference month wi : Weights of ith item  it : Inflation of ith item t     : Overall inflation 65
  67. 66   Inflation Monitor, August 2022 Methodology for Estimating Inflation Diffusion Index for Pakistan We constructed an index to measure the spread of inflation in the 356 and 244 items of CPI urban and rural baskets respectively. It is based on month-on-month (MoM) change in the prices of these items and can be obtained by estimating what is known as an ‘inflation diffusion index’ (IDI) as below: