Pakistan Daily Economy Update - 19 November

Transcription

1. November 19 , 2019 KCCI - eBulletin State Bank governor says economy showing signs of improvement SBP Governor, Reza Baqir, has said that the economy has begun to show signs of improvement, adding that inflation would start easing soon as a result of the new measures. He said that exchange rate has stabilized and the trade and Current Account Deficit is shrinking at a fast pace. In a meeting with KCCI, he said that GDP growth is still low, but the growth is positive. He added that foreign exchange has restarted flowing back to the country, which would augment reserves and help exchange rate further stabilize. Talking about the interest rates, he said that measures are in place and once the inflation comes down, the monetary policy committee will definitely consider it while deciding the discount rates. The governor said that SBP has launched several SME financing and export refinancing schemes and urged the business community to avail credits on concessionary rates. He asked KCCI leadership to upload the SBP business financing schemes, especially SMEs on KCCI website, for awareness of members. Moreover, SBP and KCCI also decided to form a focal group for jointly working on promotion of small and medium enterprises sector. To a demand of KCCI for re-opening of banks on Saturdays to facilitate the trade and industry, he said they will think over it. Chairman BMG group and former President KCCI, Siraj Kassam Teli, complained the SBP governor of higher interest rates, which have resulted in higher cost of doing business. Teli said that the discount rate should be in single digit as in most of the countries of the world. Earlier, KCCI President Agha Shahab Ahmed Khan briefed the Governor and his team about various financing and regulatory issues confronting trade and industry. He also urged the SBP to launch soft loan schemes for all sectors of the economy. The News/Dawn. KCCI to take up issues with FBR and other authorities, PCDMA told President KCCI Agha Shahab Ahmed Khan has assured members of Pakistan Chemical & Dyes Merchants Association (PCDMA) delegation to take up their issues, particularly SRO 1190, with FBR and other concerned authorities to get them resolved. He also asked for suggestion from PCDMA in valuation ruling and prices of different items and assured that KCCI will definitely help in making correct valuation ruling and always support commercial importers. He also agreed to a suggestion of chairman PCDMA to form a committee for joint effort in resolving the issues and asked to nominate their representative. BR. Monetary policy on Nov 22 SBP will announce its monetary policy on Fri (22nd Nov’19). The central bank had left its interest rate unchanged at 13.25% in its last policy meeting held in Sep’19. The News. Current account balance posts $ 99Mn surplus in October Pakistan’s Current Account Balance posted a $ 99Mn surplus in Oct’19, up from a $ 284Mn deficit in Sep’19. The Current Account surplus is the nation’s first in almost 4.5 years after witnessing a surplus of $ 518Mn in Mar’15. Current Account Deficit narrowed 74% to $ 1.47Bn in 4MFY20, from $ 5.57Bn in 4MFY19, or to 1.6% of GDP, down from 5.5% of GDP. The Current Account Deficit is projected to be at 2.5-3.5% of GDP in FY20. The decline in deficit is result of improvement in external trade. The News. IMF turns down govt’s request to cut tax collection target Chairman FBR Shabbar Zaidi has said that IMF had not agreed with the govt. to reduce the annual tax collection target during FY20 as Pakistan wanted to slash the target by PKR 300Bn. FBR is struggling to achieve the target due to reduction in imports of the country. He is optimistic that Pakistan would convince the Fund on downward revision of the tax collection target. He further said that FBR had collected PKR 1.28Tn in 4MFY20 as against the target of PKR 1.45Tn. The Nation. FBR to take strict action against smuggled vehicles FBR has issued instructions to its field offices to identify smuggled vehicles and other items and take punitive actions against all those who are involved in such crimes. The Customs Wing has issued instructions to verify the genuineness of all seized conveyances being used to transport smuggled goods through verification from Forensic Science Laboratory, registration database of Excise and Taxation Department and Customs clearance documents. The News. HBL first Pakistani bank to do RMB trade in China HBL has created history by becoming the first bank from Pakistan and one of the three banks from the South Asia and MENA region to offer end-to-end RMB intermediation. HBL Urumqi branch is also the only foreign bank branch in Xinjiang province. HBL has also applied to Chinese Regulators to upgrade its Beijing Representative office to a branch; it is expected that license \ will be received in the next 2-3 months subject to regulatory approvals. With the commencement of RMB clearing capability, HBL Urumqi branch will provide clearing to HBL branches, subsidiaries and affiliates. BR. $ 10Bn committed in oil, gas sector under CPEC Outgoing Planning Minister Khusro Bakhtyar has said that China has decided to invest $ 10Bn in oil and gas sector, and $ 4Bn in the local steel sector under the next phase of CPEC. Addressing the 3rd annual, two-day conference on CPEC consortium of universities, he said that China has a total trade volume worth $ 4,000Bn with the world, while Pakistan’s trade volume is worth only $ 80Bn. He said that govt. wants to add new sectors, including iron, mines and minerals, oil and gas, copper, pipe line, textiles, and auto mobile, to exploit the potential of trade through CPEC. The News. Economic Indicators List of Indicators Date / Period Unit Value Change Daily USD-Interbank USD-Open MKT 18-Nov PKR PKR 155.35 155.30 -0.03% 0.00% KSE-100 index FIPI Pts. $ Mn 38,412 4.25 2.20% NM** Crude (AP'19) 18-Nov 18-Nov 18-Nov $/bbl 57.82 0.00% Gold (MA'19) 18-Nov $/oz 1,467.5 0.00% Gold (10g) Local 18-Nov PKR 73,474 -0.58% Silver (MA'19) 18-Nov $/oz 16.92 0.00% Cotton(KHI)-40 kg 18-Nov PKR 9,816 1.77% Kibor-6M 18-Nov % 13.53 0.00% 8-Nov FY20 $ Bn 15.50 WoW -0.10% Remittances Jul-Oct 19 $ Bn 7.48 -1.82% Exports* Jul-Oct 19 $ Bn 7.55 3.81% Imports* Jul-Oct 19 $ Bn 15.32 -19.21% Trade Balance* Jul-Oct 19 $ Bn -7.78 33.52% -1.47 0.65 73.52% 238.72% Forex Reserves YoY Jul-Oct 19 $ Bn $ Bn Jul-Oct 19 Jul-Aug 19 LSM Growth* % % Jul-Oct 19 Avg. CPI Discount Rate % Jul-19 WoW= week, NCCPL, KSE, Sources: KCCI Research, PMEX ** Not Meaningful on week; Current Account Foreign Direct Inv. -6.04 10.32 13.25 SBP, PBS* Major Currencies 215 205 195 185 175 165 155 145 135 125 115 105 95 Nov-18 USD GBP, 18-Nov-19, 201.4 EUR, 18-Nov-19, 172.1 USD, 18-Nov-19, 155.6 Feb-19 GBP May-19 EUR Aug-19 Nov-19 Source: KCCI Research ; Oanda.com Quote of the Day "The four most dangerous words in investing are: 'this time it's different.'" John Templeton Chart of the Day Net FDI in Pakistan-Country Wise ($ Mn) -39.40 Norway -149.80 263.70 China U.K Asad returns to cabinet as planning minister PM Imran Khan has brought back his former Finance minister Asad Umar to the federal cabinet as minister for Planning, Development and Reforms. Makhdoom Khusro Bakhtiyar, has been made petroleum minister after slicing the portfolio of Energy Minister Omar Ayub Khan. Omar Ayub was holding two ministries, petroleum and energy and after the reshuffle he will retain the energy ministry only. Chinese authorities engaged under CPEC had expressed concern over working of key ministers relating to communications, railways and planning and development. Dawn. Chinese company to invest $ 250Mn in Service Industries The Service Industries Limited and Chaoyang Long March Tyre Company have signed a joined venture worth $ 250Mn to produce all steel radial truck and bus tyres, with likely $ 100Mn exports in the 1st year of production. Advisor to PM on Commerce, Razaak Dawood, said that for the first time, Pakistan will be producing steel radial tyres. The project, spread over an area of 50 acres, has been granted the status of Special Exporting Zone in line with the govt. policy of facilitating important investments. The News. 18-Nov Malaysia U.S.A 122.00 86.80 56.00 10.10 33.80 31.70 30.70 37.50 Japan 9.10 20.20 Germany 16.70 17.70 16.50 16.20 8.9041.00 Italy Turkey U.A.E -200.00 -100.00 28.30 0.00 100.00 4MFY19 4MFY20 Source: KCCI Research; SBP 200.00 300.00 PM directs provision of further relief to public through new measures Disclaimer PM Imran Khan Monday has directed his cabinet members to suggest and identify new measures aimed at public welfare by providing further relief to the masses. Different ministries had identified a total of 64 new different steps for public facilitation, This report has been prepared by KCCI Research & Development Cell. The which were in addition to their regular responsibilities; implementation on 35 had been made whereas work on the remaining information contained herein have been compiled or arrived at based upon information obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith. 29 other areas was in progress. BR. Such information has not been independently verified. icon represents the sole viewpoint of the KCCI R&D Cell, and is stated to enrich the readers' understanding of the news item. The