Oman Weekly Market Monitor - 12 March
Oman Weekly Market Monitor - 12 March
Ard, Participation
Ard, Participation
Transcription
- Weekly Market Monitor GBCM Research March 12, 2017 Index Performance MSM 30 . Financial Industrial Services Current Week Previous Week WTD (%) YTD (%) Beta (Yr) 5,792 5,815 ‐0.40% 0.16% 1.000 8,184 8,181 0.03% 6.67% 1.210 8,058 7,971 1.10% 8.79% 0.732 3,014 3,031 ‐0.58% ‐1.47% 0.595 Oil price correction led to negative sentiments… 6,000 5,820 5,000 5,810 In terms of market activity, a total of 76.059 million shares got traded during the week amounting to an aggregate turnover of RO 17.520 million as against RO 57.9 million in previous week. In terms of participation, Omani Investors remained as net buyers to an extent of RO 2.676 million. GCC and Foreign Investors emerged as net sellers to an extent of RO 957K and RO 1.710 million respectively. 4,000 5,800 Oman Natural Gas Production data– January 2017 3,000 5,790 2,000 5,780 1,000 5,770 Source: MSM, GBCM Research MSM 30 Index Performance Vs Turnover In RO 000s ‐ Turnover MSM 30 5,760 2‐Mar 4,633 5‐Mar 4,846 6‐Mar 3,475 7‐Mar 4,007 8‐Mar 2,425 9‐Mar 2,767 5,815 5,808 5,800 5,796 5,801 5,792 S MSM Weekly Trading Activity ‐ Total Turnover RO 17.520 million (c. $ 45.6 million) Fig. In RO Omanis GCC Arabs The fall in oil prices during the week (NYMEX crude down 9% WTD and Brent/ Oman Crude down by 8% WTD) had a negative impact across the regional markets. MSM30 Index ended lower by 0.4% to close at 5,792 points. We also saw considerable decline in the market participation despite ongoing dividend season. For the week, the Financial Index ended on a flattish note. While the Industrial Index gained 1.1% for the week. On the other hand, the Services Index ended lower by 0.6%. Buy Sell Net Buy / (Sell) 15,920,579 13,244,313 2,676,265 468,074 1,425,353 (957,280) 183,212 195,281 (12,069) 948,291 Others 2,655,208 (1,706,917) Oman’s natural gas production and imports fell by 4.5% to 3,424 million cubic metres (MNCM) in January 2017, compared to 3,584 MNCM in the same month last year. Of this, non‐associated gas and imports dropped by 3.7% to 2,859 MNCM, while associated gas production fell by 8% to 565 MNCM. A sizeable portion of natural gas in Oman is used by various mega‐industrial projects. In January 2017, it stood at 2,183 MNCM, against 2,199 MNCM for the same period of last year. (Source: Times of Oman) Outlook for the upcoming week… During the previous trading week, all the regional markets ended on a negative note (UAE‐ADX ‐3% WTD and Qatar ‐2.4% WTD) except for Bahrain which ended in green. The subdued market sentiments prevailed amid correction in oil prices along with ongoing dividend adjustments. MSM Index also ended lower for the week amid low investor participation. We expect the local and GCC markets to open on a flattish note for the week and to see stock specific activity with the dividend season peaking out. While the continued correction in the oil prices would mean the GCC markets may see selling pressure post dividends, the concern remain on dull investor participation too. We see technical next support for MSM at 5,760 points and resistance around 5,840 levels. Source: MSM, GBCM Research Page | 1
- Weekly Market Monitor GBCM Research Value Leaders‐Weekly 3,000 2,500 Top Five Gainers/ Losers for the Week 14.7% 16% 12.7% 14% The Fincorp ‐10.0% Oman Emirates ‐9.2% 12% 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 Al Hassan Eng 8.8% 10% 6.9% 8% 4.9% 6% 4% Oman Fisheries Omantel Bank Muscat Oman Cables ‐8.2% 4.6% Gulf Int. Chemicals 6.7% Al Anwar Holding ‐9.0% Al Batinah Inv. Oman Flour Mills 5.6% 0 Asaffa Foods 4.4% 2% 0% Oman Fisheries Al Anwar Holding Oman Textiles 40.9% MSM Sectoral Market cap for the week Volume Leaders‐ Weekly 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 16.4% 18% 15.9% Other Services, 5.1% 16% 14% 6,000 4,000 ‐9.1% Power Utilities, 12.3% 12% 7.8% 10% Banking, 33.9% 7.6% 8% 5.4% Telecom, 15.9% 6% Investments, 6.3% 4% Oil Marketing, 4.8% 2,000 2% 0 Al Anwar Holding Oman Fisheries Al Madina Inv. Al Madina Takaful Bank Nizwa Leasing, 3.1% Other Industry, 11.5% Engg & Const., 0.5% 0% Insurance, 1.4% Cement, 5.1% Source: MSM, GBCM Research Source: MSM, GBCM Research Page | 2 Brokerage, 0.3%
- Weekly Market Monitor GBCM Research MSM ‐ Value Indicators GCC‐ Market Performance for the week Dividend Yield (%) 20.0% 1.2 5.4% 10.0% 9.0 0.9 4.5% 5.0% 1,017,662 16.2 1.4 4.7% 2,909,827 10.3 1.7 6.3% Mkt. Cap (RO’000s) PER 6,675,311 9.7 3,441,071 Value Indicators MSM 30 Index P/BV Financial Industrial Services MSM Shariah 0.0% ` 2,727,144 11.0 1.6 6.0% Source: MSM, GBCM Research Commodities Last Week WTD (%) NYMEX WTI Crude 48.5 53.3 ‐9.1% ICE Brent Crude 51.4 55.9 ‐8.1% Crude Oil, Oman 50.2 54.8 ‐8.3% NYMEX Natural Gas 3.0 2.8 6.4% 160.0 165.3 ‐3.2% NYMEX Gasoline Gold Spot 1,204.7 1,234.6 ‐2.4% Silver Spot 17.0 18.0 ‐5.2% LME Aluminium (Spot) 1,867.8 1,883.8 ‐0.8% LME Copper (Spot) 5,716.3 5,905.8 ‐3.2% LME Zinc (Spot) 2,687.5 2,767.0 ‐2.9% Hot Rolled Coil ‐ Steel 625.0 620.0 0.8% CBOT Corn 364.3 380.8 ‐4.3% CBOT Wheat 440.5 453.5 ‐2.9% 1,006.5 1,037.5 ‐3.0% CBOT Soyabean Source: Bloomberg; GBCM Research ‐10.0% Oman Saudi UAE (DFM) UAE (Abu Dhabi) Kuwait Qatar Bahrain WTD (%) ‐0.4% ‐1.4% ‐1.8% ‐3.0% ‐0.8% ‐2.4% 0.9% YTD (%) 0.2% ‐4.1% ‐0.3% ‐2.0% 16.8% 0.3% 10.9% Current Week ‐5.0% Source: Bloomberg, GBCM Research Commodities Performance for the week Page | 3 15.0% Oman ‐ Weekly News watch… Salalah Methanol Co. has asked banks for a $720 million syndicated loan that the state‐run petrochemical company would use for a new ammonia plant and refinancing purposes, banking sources said. Bank Dhofar and Standard Chartered are advising the company on the financing, which is expected to have a 12‐year maturity. Banks are expected to summit their commitments to the loan by the end of March, the sources said. (Source: Times of Oman) GCC ‐ Weekly News Watch… Bank Al Jazira’s board of directors recommended a 30% capital increase to SAR 5.2 billion from SAR 4 billion, through the issue of three bonus share for every ten shares held. The lender will capitalize SAR 1.2 billion of retained earnings in order to facilitate the capital hike, Al Jazira said. The move aims to boost the bank’s capital base in line with regulatory requirements. Saudi Electricity Co. (SEC) has been exempted from paying a 2% power consumption fee to the municipalities by virtue of a royal decree. The outstanding payments to the municipalities until the end of 2016 will be canceled. SEC will cut current liabilities in the balance sheet, which will be recorded as non‐recurring revenue in the comprehensive income statement at SR 6.1 billon. Meanwhile, operating expenses will be also reduced by 2% from March 2. (Source: Argaam)
- Weekly Market Monitor GBCM Research | Institutional Sales ‐ Hunaina Banatwala, (+968) 2235 0717 |Institutional Brokerage – Talal Al Balushi, (+968) 2235 0725| | Equity Research ‐ Kanaga Sundar, (+968) 2235 0727| Vijay Sridharan, (+968) 2235 0728| Disclaimer: This document has been prepared and issued by GULF BAADER CAPITAL MARKETS SAOC ("the Company") on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. While all care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated are accurate and the opinions given are reasonable, neither GULF BAADER CAPITAL MARKETS SAOC nor any employee shall be in anyway responsible for the contents of this report. The Company may have a position and may perform buying/selling for itself or its clients in any security mentioned in this report. This is not an offer to buy or sell the investments referred therein. Page | 4
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