MENA Market Report - 3 March

Transcription

1. MENA Morning Report Tuesday , April 03, 2018 Overview Regional Markets: MENA region ended the session on a negative note as four out of the eight indexes closed in red, while three in green and one remained unchanged for the day. The global markets appear to be concerned about the trade war between US and China, which is resulting in selling pressure in Wall Street in the overnight session. For the regional markets, Kuwait was the worst performer with losses of 2.1% for the day, the second straight decline after the market segmentation as investors seem slightly worried after the changes made in the index. UAE markets ended on the losing side as Dubai was down by 0.9%, while Abu Dhabi was flat for the day. Dubai continues to remain under pressure as the index has lost around 8.0% for the year, the worst performing index within the region. Saudi Arabia also closed lower as it was down by 0.2% for the day, extending the losses to 1.1% in the past two trading sessions. The positive news about its inclusion in the secondary FTSE emerging market index was mostly priced in by investors, which is now resulting in profit booking. Egypt closed on a positive note as it was up by 0.5% for the day, continuing the positive trajectory for the year to become the best performing index within the region. The index has advanced by 17.7% for the year as investors are optimistic about further rate cuts, which should support the on-going economic recovery. Qatar also closed in green as the index was up by 0.7% for the day, extending the gains to 1.8% during the past two trading sessions. Bahrain was down by 0.7%, while Oman was up by 0.3% for the day. International Markets: US markets ended on a negative note as DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ were all down by 1.9%, 2.2% and 2.7% respectively for the day. European markets closed on a positive note as FTSE, CAC and DAX closed higher by 0.2%, 0.7% and 1.3% respectively for the day. At the time of writing this report, Asian markets have opened on a negative note as Nikkei, Shanghai and Hang Seng were all down by 0.6%, 0.9% and 0.6% respectively. Headlines (WW) US factory activity slows; construction spending up slightly (ME) MENA region to invest USD 574bn in critical energy projects (WW) Trump to unveil China tariff list this week, targeting tech goods (SA) Saudi Arabian women to drive economic growth from aviation to banking (WW) The US needs to relieve the constraints to faster non inflationary growth (SA) Saudi economic reforms, new regulations to hurt telecom sector (WW) China March factory growth cools to 4-month low (AE) Dubai awards USD 353mn Expo 2020 road project contracts (WW) China hits the US with tariffs on USD 3bn of exports (AE) Dubai's trade for hardware and tools valued at USD 1.3bn in 2017 (WW) Combination of factors means UK faces severe workforce crisis by 2025 (EG) Egypt net foreign reserves rise to USD 42.611bn at end-March (WW) Japan's business mood sours for first time in 2 years, upbeat on CAPEX (QA) Construction sector to grow by 7% until 2019 (WW) Default rates at Indian companies likely to rise further (KW) Kuwaiti Parliament considers bill to tax remittances (CMD) Russian oil output hits 11-month high in March (KW) Kuwait's GDP forecast to grow in 2018 (CMD) Gold rises on renewed US-China trade tensions (BH) Bahrain's new oil discovery could help steer economy back on track (FX) Dollar steady vs. Yen, traders wary over global trade tensions (BH) SME accelerator initiative to support Bahrain's diversification strategy (FX) British pound higher as bullish trend pushes Sterling up (BH) Bahrain economy to grow 3.7% in 2018 with outlook revised as oil rebounds (FI) US treasury yields rise ahead of data (Source: Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg) MENA Markets Index Last DoD (%) WTD (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) ST Trend * MT Trend * LT Trend * Dubai (DFMGI) 3,106.95 -0.9% -0.1% -0.1% -7.8% ˅ ˅ ˅ Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 4,581.62 -0.0% -0.1% -0.1% 4.2% ˄ ˄ ˄ Saudi (SASEIDX) 7,783.48 -0.2% -1.1% -1.1% 7.7% ˄ ˄ ˄ Kuwait (KWSE) 4,889.67 -2.1% -2.2% -2.2% 1.0% ˅ ˄ ˄ Egypt (EGX30) 17,684.66 0.5% 1.3% 1.3% 17.7% ˄ ˄ ˄ Qatar (DSM) 8,729.15 0.7% 1.8% 1.8% 2.4% ˅ ˄ ˄ Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 1,294.64 -0.7% -1.8% -1.8% -2.8% ˅ ˄ ˄ Oman (MSM30) 4,750.15 0.3% -0.5% -0.5% -6.8% ˅ ˅ ˅ MENA Market Statistics Volume (mln) 3M Avg. Volume (mln) 6M Avg. Volume (mln) Value (USD mln) 3M Avg. Value (USD mln) 6M Avg. Value (USD mln) Market Cap (USD mln) Dubai (DFMGI) 135 213 241 58 87 103 83,076 Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 161 72 79 50 39 41 133,313 Saudi (SASEIDX) 192 173 176 1,142 995 954 493,681 Kuwait (KWSE) 29 81 82 9 47 51 75,578 Egypt (EGX30) 740 336 347 142 106 94 30,442 Qatar (DSM) 15 11 10 85 86 78 101,167 Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 2 7 6 1 3 3 21,513 Oman (MSM30) 30 16 17 12 11 12 13,291 Index * ST trend based on a 5x25 day SMA crossover; MT trend based on a 25x100 day SMA crossover; LT trend based on a 50x200 day SMA crossover Data & News Source: Thomson Reuters 1
2. MENA Morning Report Tuesday , April 03, 2018 Valuation and Performance Comparisons 5-Year CDS(DoD change) Price Ratios PE (+ve.eps) 16 Previous Current 600 14.3 12.4 12 8 PB 11.6 10.8 10.7 7.6 7.7 4 1.1 1.3 2.7 1.7 - - 148.4 109.5 1.2 0.8 0.9 Bahrain Oman - 88.5 86.3 60.3 1.4 0 291.6 254.0 300 0 Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Dubai Average Abu Dhabi Saudi 6.5% 5.6% 6.0% 6.0% 5.1% 4.5% 4.1% 4% 2.8% 2% 0.0% 0% Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Egypt Qatar Bahrain Oman Average Year to Date Perfomance DividendYield 8% 6% Kuwait Qatar Bahrain Oman Average 18% 15% 12% 9% 6% 3% 0% -3% -6% -9% -12% 17.7% 7.7% 4.2% 3.1% 2.4% -2.8% -6.8% -7.8% Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters; Table includes Bloomberg estimates and data for UAE, KSA, QA, KW and EG where available Qatar Bahrain Oman 2
3. MENA Morning Report Tuesday , April 03, 2018 Top Performers by Country (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) MARKA PJSC 0.48 -4.76% 0 1,873 GULF GENERAL INVESTMENT CO PSC 0.33 -3.23% 0 138 572 EMAAR PROPERTIES PJSC 5.70 -2.56% 14,678 84,766 194 AMANAT HOLDINGS PJSC 1.34 -2.19% 5,740 7,777 ISLAMIC ARAB INSURANCE CO PSC 0.41 -1.90% 3,312 1,384 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) ABU DHABI AVIATION 2.89 -6.47% 10 30 UNITED ARAB BANK PJSC 1.15 -5.74% 278 329 7 INTERNATIONAL HOLDING COMPANY 1.45 -2.03% 190 278 401 ABU DHABI NATIONAL OIL COMPANY 2.62 -1.87% 2,236 5,915 ALDAR PROPERTIES PJSC 2.10 -1.87% 5,922 12,554 Top Losers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) DAR AL ARKAN REAL ESTATE DEV 12.10 -5.62% 61,438 765,516 116,065 SOUTHERN PROVINCE CEMENT CO 45.40 -5.42% 180 8,413 1,781 22,452 SAUDI CEMENT CO SJSC 51.40 -4.46% 470 24,703 4,275 95,385 UNITED INTERNATIONAL TRANSPORT 37.75 -3.08% 298 11,432 5.26% 84 13,029 SAUDI INDIAN COMPANY FOR CO-OP 16.20 -2.99% 707 11,632 Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) TAAMEER REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT 24.30 10.45% 214 5 KUWAIT TELECOMMUNICATIONS CO 800.00 -15.79% 24 21 AMWAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMEN 53.90 7.80% 463 24 KUWAIT REAL ESTATE HOLDING CO 25.00 -13.79% 24 1 28.30 -11.84% 400 12 Close DoD % Volume Value DUBAI FINANCIAL MARKET PJSC 1.05 0.96% 0 4,908 DUBAI INVESTMENTS PJSC 2.14 0.94% 0 1,899 NATIONAL CENTRAL COOLING CO PJSC 1.60 0.63% 359 AL SALAM BANK SUDAN PLC 1.69 0.60% 115 UNION PROPERTIES PJSC 0.89 0.45% 19,191 17,041 Top Gainers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) AGTHIA GROUP PJSC 4.49 6.65% 81 354 ABU DHABI NATIONAL ENERGY CO 0.85 4.94% 21,284 17,666 GULF PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRIES 2.39 3.91% 3 NATIONAL BANK OF RAS AL KHAIMAH 4.50 2.27% 90 DANA GAS PJSC 0.96 2.13% 68,673 65,239 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) AL KATHIRI HOLDING CO 26.40 14.78% 23 578 SAUDI ARABIAN REFINERIES CO SJSC 43.90 9.20% 2,760 AL SORAYAI TRADING AND INDUSTRY 12.98 6.05% AL ANDALUS PROPERTY CO SJSC 22.92 5.62% ABDULLAH AL OTHAIM MARKETS CO 160.00 Abu Dhabi Dubai Top Gainers Saudi Arabia Top Gainers Egypt Kuwait Top Gainers Top Losers Top Losers AAN DIGITAL SERVICES CO KSCP 21.80 7.39% 280 6 AL-ARABIYA REAL ESTATE CO KSCP AL SALAM GROUP HOLDING CO KSCP 34.80 5.45% 138 5 NATIONAL MOBILE TELECOM 851.00 -10.52% 2 2 AL DEERA HOLDING CO KPSC 23.00 4.55% 6 0 AAYAN REAL ESTATE COMPANY KSCP 55.80 -10.00% 0 0 Top Gainers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (EGP ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (EGP ‘000) EGYPTIAN CHEMICAL INDUSTRIES SAE 8.16 10.27% 0 93,058 MISR BENI SUEF CEMENT CO SAE 24.40 -6.26% 1 37 MISR NATIONAL STEEL SAE 59.79 9.79% 56 3,198 INDUSTRIAL AND ENGINEERING ENT 11.11 -6.09% 33 381 IBNSINA PHARMA CO 10.32 7.84% 4,344 43,202 PRIME HOLDING FOR FINANCIAL INVS 4.22 -5.59% 7 31 DEVELOPMENT AND ENGINEERING 20.72 6.26% 244 4,897 ROWAD TOURISM COMPANY SAE 11.65 -5.44% 18 212 CANAL SHIPPING AGENCIES CO SAE 15.63 6.04% 2,371 36,010 ORASCOM DEVELOPMENT EGYPT SAE 32.07 -3.92% 158 5,174 Close DoD % Volume Value Top Losers Close DoD % Volume Value GULF INTERNATIONAL SERVICES QSC 20.45 4.82% 1,536 30,684 DOHA INSURANCE CO QSC 12.60 -8.03% 0 1 ALIJARAH HOLDING CO QPSC 10.80 4.75% 285 3,011 ZAD HOLDING CO SAQ 86.00 -6.31% 21 1,882 QATAR GENERAL INSURANCE & REINS 45.00 3.45% 35 1,561 MESAIEED PETROCHEMICAL HOLDING 15.41 -4.58% 2,471 38,994 QATAR FIRST BANK LLC 6.45 3.20% 3,193 20,277 QATAR FUEL CO QSC 114.15 -3.06% 108 12,511 COMMERCIAL BANK PSQC 31.00 2.01% 449 13,773 MEDICARE GROUP QSC 68.10 -1.84% 6 414 Top Gainers Qatar Top Losers Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters Top Losers 3
4. MENA Morning Report Tuesday , April 03, 2018 Top 30 MENA Stocks by Market Capitalization (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Country Market Cap (USD mln) Close * DoD % YTD % Volume ('000) Value (USD ‘000) 52w High * 52w Low * P/E P/B Div. Yield (T12M) 1 Saudi Basic Industries Corporation SJSC SA 92,480 115.60 -0.5% 13.6% 8,016 247,114 120.00 94.25 19 2.1 3.6% 2 Saudi Telecom Company SJSC SA 43,147 80.90 -1.0% 17.9% 261 5,637 85.00 65.10 16 2.6 4.9% 3 Emirates Telecommunications Group Co AE 41,322 17.45 0.0% -0.3% 523 2,486 18.85 15.75 18 3.4 4.6% 4 First Abu Dhabi Bank PJSC AE 34,717 11.70 0.0% 14.1% 1,393 4,437 12.00 10.05 13 1.2 6.0% 5 National Commercial Bank SJSC SA 34,347 64.40 -0.3% 16.9% 158 2,714 65.50 37.00 13 2.0 2.6% 6 Qatar National Bank QPSC QA 33,871 133.50 1.1% 5.9% 275 10,075 151.00 115.01 9 1.6 4.5% 7 Al Rajhi Banking & Investment Corp Ltd SA 32,543 75.10 0.7% 16.3% 2,821 56,489 78.20 61.00 13 2.2 5.3% 8 Saudi Electricity Company SJSC SA 22,866 20.58 -0.3% -2.3% 857 4,706 26.05 19.76 12 1.2 3.4% 9 DP World Ltd AE 18,575 22.38 -0.6% -10.5% 140 851 27.06 20.30 16 1.7 1.8% 10 Industries Qatar QSC QA 18,114 109.00 0.8% 12.4% 98 2,920 115.00 85.00 20 1.9 4.6% 11 Saudi Arabian Mining Co SJSC SA 16,483 52.90 0.6% 1.5% 308 4,341 57.10 39.50 86 2.4 0.0% 12 Emirates NBD Bank PJSC AE 16,117 10.65 -0.5% 29.9% 157 455 11.00 7.95 8 1.0 3.8% 13 National Bank of Kuwait SAKP KW 14,937 720.00 -3.5% 3.8% 9,605 23,099 761.90 619.05 14 1.4 3.8% 14 Almarai Co SJSC SA 14,453 54.20 0.0% 0.7% 171 2,478 78.64 50.00 26 3.7 1.4% 15 Emirates Islamic Bank PJSC AE 14,047 9.50 0.0% -3.1% 1 1 10.20 4.90 73 7.1 0.0% 16 Samba Financial Group SJSC SA 13,920 26.10 -0.4% 11.0% 669 4,658 27.55 20.50 10 1.2 5.7% 17 Saudi British Bank SJSC SA 12,320 30.80 -0.6% 14.1% 27 222 32.50 21.25 12 1.4 4.6% 18 Jabal Omar Development Co SJSC SA 11,995 48.40 -1.3% -18.1% 277 3,571 75.60 47.50 334 4.4 0.0% 19 Kuwait Finance House KSCP KW 11,300 587.00 -0.5% 1.9% 5,518 10,819 650.00 467.00 18 1.8 2.6% 20 Emaar Properties PJSC AE 11,112 5.70 -2.6% -12.8% 14,678 22,782 8.43 5.68 7 0.8 0.0% 21 Riyad Bank SJSC SA 11,040 13.80 0.0% 9.7% 1,414 5,203 14.20 10.10 10 1.1 5.3% 22 Yanbu National Petrochemicals Co SJSC SA 10,800 72.00 -0.3% 22.0% 261 5,013 74.30 52.00 17 2.4 4.5% 23 Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank PJSC AE 9,398 6.64 -0.9% -2.4% 192 346 7.50 6.50 8 1.1 6.3% 24 Banque Saudi Fransi SJSC SA 9,321 29.00 -1.2% 1.8% 175 1,353 33.40 25.20 10 1.1 4.8% 25 Kingdom Holding Co SA 8,983 9.09 -1.7% 0.0% 465 1,127 11.30 7.90 53 1.1 0.0% 26 Abu Dhabi National Oil Co for Dist AE 8,917 2.62 -1.9% -1.1% 2,236 1,595 2.90 2.50 18 11.5 2.2% 27 Alinma Bank SJSC SA 8,200 20.50 0.3% 7.0% 31,079 169,896 20.92 14.00 15 1.5 3.9% 28 Arab National Bank SA 7,853 29.45 1.7% 18.9% 138 1,083 29.90 19.15 10 1.2 4.1% 29 Emaar Malls PJSC AE 7,690 2.17 -0.5% 1.9% 172 102 2.70 2.00 14 1.7 4.6% 30 Ezdan Holding Group QSC QA 7,658 10.51 -1.8% -13.0% 183 528 16.30 6.19 16 0.9 0.0% Company Name Total M-Cap; W. Avg Yield 598,529 3.7% Data Source: Thomson Reuters Disclaimer: This report is prepared by Al Masah Capital Limited (“AMCL”). AMCL is a company incorporated in the Cayman Islands as an Exempt Company established under the laws of the Cayman Monetary Authority. The information contained in this report does not constitute any offer to sell securities or the solicitation of any offer to buy, or recommendation for investment in, any securities in any jurisdiction. The information in this report is not intended as financial advice and is only intended to be used by experienced investment persons with appropriate investment knowledge and ones that AMCL is satisfied meet the regulatory criteria to be classified as a ‘Professional Client’ as defined under the Rules & Regulations of the appropriate financial authority, and as such should not be relied upon by or distributed to “Retail Clients”. 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