MENA Market Report - 27 October

Transcription

1. MENA Morning Report Thursday , October 27, 2016 Overview Regional Markets: MENA markets ended the session on a subdued note as a lack of catalysts led to range-bound trading across regional markets. The weak performance seen in the past few weeks have pushed most of the regional markets into negative territory. Among regional markets, Dubai was the worst performer with losses of 1.0% for the day. The broader index was dragged lower by Emaar Properties as it was down by close to 2.0% for the day. Investors preferred to book profits in the past two sessions following the gains seen earlier during the week due to a lack of catalysts and lackluster third quarter earnings. Saudi Arabia closed unchanged for the day after rising by 4.1% in the previous three trading sessions. The broader index remains in an upward trajectory post the record bond sale, which has revived investor confidence. Egypt also closed unchanged for the day, while weekly performance remains slightly negative while there is concern among investors about the ongoing crisis in the commodity market, which might have an impact on the broader economy. Qatar also closed lower by 0.4% for the day, extending the losses to 0.7% for the week. Kuwait and Bahrain closed higher by 0.3% and 0.1% respectively, while Oman was down by 0.2% for the day. International Markets: US markets closed on a mixed note as the Dow Jones was up by 0.2%, while Nasdaq and S&P 500 were down by 0.6% and 0.2% respectively. European markets closed on a negative note as FTSE, DAX and CAC were all down by 0.9%, 0.4% and 0.1% respectively. At the time of writing this report, Asian markets have opened on a negative note as Hang Seng, Nikkei and Shanghai were all down by 1.2%, 0.5% and 0.3% respectively. Headlines (WW) US housing, trade data boost third quarter GDP growth prospects (ME) MENA economies rise in ease of doing business rankings, Led by UAE (WW) Singapore, HK, China among top 10 places in World Bank Doing Business report (GCC) GCC Economies to Grow by 1.7% in 2016 (WW) UK economy set to sidestep third quarter slump, but tougher times lie ahead (SA) Saudi finance minister says IMF's growth forecast "reasonable" (WW) UK employers urge Hammond to boost investment, infrastructure (WW) Deutsche Bank Agrees to Sell Mexico Units in Global Overhaul (AE) Abu Dhabi's non-oil foreign trade soars to over USD 23 billion in H1 2016 (WW) China's Sept industrial profits rise 7.7% Y-o-Y (AE) Dubai ruler Mohammed bin Rashid launches Smart Buildability Index (WW) China’s central bank raises obscure rate to send clear message (AE) Dubai to build 71,000 new hotel rooms by 2020 (WW) Brazil's economy sheds more jobs than expected in September (EG) Egypt rises to 122 in World Bank's 2017 Doing Business report (CMD) Oil Trades Near 3-Week Low as US Gulf, East Coast Supply Rises (EG) Egypt plans to raise investments by 19% (CMD) Gold price pulls back from 3-week high to settle lower (QA) Qatar Steel rolling mill production set to scale up with Siemens IDS (FX) Dollar Near Three-Month High Versus Yen on Rate Hike Optimism (OM) Oman to cover 70% of budget shortfall with external debt (FX) Pound holds steady after recovering from two-week low against dollar (KW) More than half of Kuwait's sovereign wealth funds invested in United States (FI) Saudi bond coup seen strengthening banks seeking Aramco IPO role (BH) Over USD 32 billion projects drives economic growth in Q2 (AE) Scale of trade between China and Dubai MENA Markets Index Last DoD (%) WTD (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) ST Trend * MT Trend * LT Trend * Dubai (DFMGI) 3,304.20 -1.0% -1.1% Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 4,265.83 0.0% -0.7% -4.9% 4.9% ˅ ˅ ˄ -4.7% -1.0% ˅ ˅ ˄ Saudi (SASEIDX) 5,884.99 0.0% 4.1% 4.7% -14.9% ˄ ˅ ˅ Kuwait (KWSE) 5,403.70 Egypt (EGX30) 8,257.21 0.3% 1.5% 0.1% -3.8% ˄ ˅ ˄ -0.0% -0.2% 4.8% 17.9% ˄ ˄ ˄ Qatar (DSM) 10,362.69 Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 1,144.89 -0.4% -0.7% -0.7% -0.6% ˅ ˅ ˄ 0.1% -0.6% -0.4% -5.8% ˄ ˄ ˅ Oman (MSM30) 5,513.70 -0.2% -0.9% -3.7% 2.0% ˅ ˅ ˄ MENA Market Statistics Volume (mln) 3M Avg. Volume (mln) 6M Avg. Volume (mln) Value (USD mln) 3M Avg. Value (USD mln) 6M Avg. Value (USD mln) Market Cap (USD mln) Dubai (DFMGI) 260 256 272 85 92 96 78,253 Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 45 66 74 20 36 41 114,999 Saudi (SASEIDX) 245 184 217 874 788 978 371,685 Kuwait (KWSE) 168 64 86 112 31 32 75,578 Egypt (EGX30) 209 198 189 367 96 100 25,070 Qatar (DSM) 6 7 6 51 76 69 130,587 Bahrain (BHSEIDX) 0 2 2 0 1 1 17,664 Oman (MSM30) 8 17 17 5 8 9 16,407 Index * ST trend based on a 5x25 day SMA crossover; MT trend based on a 25x100 day SMA crossover; LT trend based on a 50x200 day SMA crossover Data & News Source: Thomson Reuters 1
2. MENA Morning Report Thursday , October 27, 2016 Valuation and Performance Comparisons 5-Year CDS(DoD change) Price Ratios PE (+ve.eps) 16 PB 10.6 11.6 11.6 10.7 9.1 8.1 386.2 300 8 239.3 188.3 178.1 4 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.5 - - 0.8 1.1 Bahrain Oman - 106.9 87.2 1.3 0 0 Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Average Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Bahrain Oman Average Year to Date Perfomance Dividend Yield 27% 8% 6% Current 489.3 13.3 12 Previous 600 5.0% 17.9% 18% 6.0% 5.3% 5.0% 3.9% 4% 9% 3.5% 2.5% 4.9% -1.0% -9% 2% 2.0% 0% 0.0% 0.0% Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Qatar Bahrain Oman Average -5.8% -14.9% -18% 0% -0.6% -3.8% -27% Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Kuwait Egypt Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters; Table includes Bloomberg estimates and data for UAE, KSA, QA, KW and EG where available Qatar Bahrain Oman 2
3. MENA Morning Report Thursday , October 27, 2016 Top Performers by Country (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) DUBAI ISLAMIC INSURANCE 0.51 -3.75% 178 93 1,411 ARABTEC HOLDING PJSC 1.29 -2.27% 15,975 20,848 12,272 6,455 AJMAN BANK PJSC 1.47 -2.00% 1,847 2,743 0.23% 4,595 3,938 EMAAR PROPERTIES PJSC 6.72 -1.90% 5,897 40,013 0.16% 255 1,568 EMAAR MALLS GROUP PJSC 2.60 -1.52% 3,473 9,098 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) ABU DHABI SHIP BUILDING PJSC 3.00 11.11% 20 56 MANAZEL REAL ESTATE PJSC 0.48 -4.00% 14,699 7,202 ARKAN BUILDING MATERIALS CO PJSC 1.01 6.32% 1,441 1,412 SUDATEL TELECOM GROUP LTD 0.49 -3.92% 322 161 RAK PROPERTIES PJSC 0.63 3.28% 9,638 5,975 DANA GAS PJSC 0.53 -3.64% 3,420 1,847 FIRST GULF BANK PJSC 10.85 2.84% 2,041 21,843 METHAQ TAKAFUL INSURANCE CO 0.80 -2.44% 946 766 RAS AL KHAIMAH CEMENT CO PSC 0.77 2.67% 175 133 ALDAR PROPERTIES PJSC 2.63 -2.23% 3,063 8,148 Top Gainers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) Top Losers Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (SAR ‘000) SAUDI INDIAN COMPANY 13.75 4.96% 6,535 87,729 SAUDI MARKETING COMPANY CJSC 22.25 -3.89% 468 10,627 NATIONAL COMMERCIAL BANK SJSC 40.30 4.95% 1,450 57,067 DAR AL ARKAN REAL ESTATE DEVELOP 4.95 -3.88% 41,204 208,078 SALAMA COOPERATIVE INSURANCE 9.75 4.28% 3,062 29,238 TAKWEEN ADVANCED INDUSTRIES 10.50 -3.67% 4,089 43,747 MOBILE TELECOMMUNICATIONS 7.35 4.26% 8,294 59,715 AMANA COOPERATIVE INSURANCE CO 7.50 -3.23% 5,525 42,125 SAUDI REAL ESTATE CO SJSC 16.75 4.04% 629 10,325 AL RAJHI COMPANY 23.65 -3.07% 344 8,271 Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) Close (fils) * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (KWD 000) FUTURE KID ENTERTAINMENT 106.00 8.16% 8 1 GULF GLASS MANUFACTURING CO 325.00 -7.14% 0 0 FIRST TAKAFUL INSURANCE CO KPSC 42.00 6.33% 1 0 IKARUS PETROLEUM INDUSTRIES CO 30.00 -4.76% 1 0 EQUIPMENT HOLDING COMPANY 44.50 5.95% 1,390 60 KUWAIT REAL ESTATE HOLDING CO 21.00 -4.55% 5 0 AL MAZAYA HOLDING COMPANY KSCP 114.00 5.56% 2,482 275 EKTTITAB HOLDING CO KSCP 35.50 -4.05% 533 19 AL AMAN INVESTMENT COMPANY 47.50 5.56% 678 31 GULF CABLE AND ELECTRICAL INDUS 390.00 -3.70% 1,600 636 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (EGP ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (EGP ‘000) ARAB VALVES CO SAE 0.70 7.69% 241 163 MISR HOTELS CO SAE 18.55 -8.67% 1 13 ARAB DRUG COMPANY 7.07 7.45% 14 96 JUHAYNA FOOD INDUSTRIES SAE 3.75 -3.85% 338 1,295 UNIRAB POLVARA SPINNING & WEAV 1.65 7.14% 264 421 GENERAL COMPANY FOR CERAMIC 2.77 -3.82% 123 347 VODAFONE EGYPT TELECOMM CO 64.46 6.48% 0 21 EL NASR TRANSFORMERS AND ELECT 5.17 -3.72% 8 40 GMC GROUP 0.69 6.15% 402 270 MARSA MARSA ALAM 0.63 -3.08% 75 48 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (QAR ‘000) Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (QAR ‘000) QATARI INVESTORS GROUP QSC 56.60 9.90% 595 32,159 MEDICARE GROUP QSC 73.50 -4.55% 122 9,218 MANNAI CORPORATION QSC 79.90 2.17% 3 206 INDUSTRIES QATAR QSC 101.20 -3.62% 99 10,170 AL KHALIJ COMMERCIAL BANK QSC 18.00 1.69% 268 4,787 AL MEERA CONSUMER GOODS CO 188.20 -2.54% 19 3,558 AAMAL CO QSC 14.93 1.50% 23 337 ISLAMIC HOLDING GROUP QSC 55.00 -2.14% 25 1,407 VODAFONE QATAR QSC 10.72 1.32% 2,452 26,110 GULF INTERNATIONAL SERVICES QSC 33.70 -1.46% 38 1,282 Close * DoD % Volume ('000) Value (AED ‘000) SHUAA CAPITAL PSC 1.08 4.85% 23,748 25,054 DAR AL TAKAFUL PJSC 1.01 1.00% 1,404 DEYAAR DEVELOPMENT PJSC 0.53 0.38% AMANAT HOLDINGS PJSC 0.86 EMIRATES INTEGRATED TELECOMM 6.15 Dubai Top Gainers Saudi Arabia Abu Dhabi Top Gainers Kuwait Top Gainers Egypt Top Gainers Qatar Top Gainers Data & Charts Source: Thomson Reuters Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers Top Losers 3
4. MENA Morning Report Thursday , October 27, 2016 Top 30 MENA Stocks by Market Capitalization (* indicates native currency; Latest data) Country Market Cap (USD mln) Close * DoD % YTD % Volume ('000) Value (USD ‘000) 52w High * 52w Low * P/E P/B Div. Yield (T12M) 1 Saudi Basic Industries Corporation SJSC SA 67,816 84.75 -0.6% 10.4% 1,748 39,501 91.00 59.50 15 1.6 6.5% 2 Emirates Telecommunications Group Co AE 45,821 19.35 -1.0% 20.2% 648 3,414 20.20 14.90 19 3.8 4.1% 3 Qatar National Bank SAQ QA 37,365 162.00 -0.2% 11.1% 143 6,370 169.80 122.50 11 1.8 1.5% 4 Saudi Telecom Co SJSC SA 31,207 58.50 -0.4% -14.3% 629 9,809 69.75 51.00 14 2.0 6.8% 5 Al Rajhi Banking & Investment Corp SA 24,056 55.50 0.9% 6.7% 1,696 25,102 62.75 44.70 12 1.8 2.7% 6 National Commercial Bank SJSC SA 21,498 40.30 4.9% -21.0% 1,450 15,588 54.25 32.00 9 1.4 3.8% 7 Saudi Electricity Co SJSC SA 20,393 18.35 2.2% 16.5% 2,437 11,928 21.80 12.40 25 1.2 3.8% 8 Industries Qatar QSC QA 16,818 101.20 -3.6% -8.9% 99 2,742 124.90 88.00 15 1.9 4.9% 9 DP World Ltd AE 14,940 18.00 -1.4% -11.3% 65 319 20.80 16.05 15 1.7 1.7% 10 Jabal Omar Development Co SJSC SA 14,812 59.75 -0.4% 7.7% 1,983 31,595 68.75 40.80 0 5.9 0.0% 11 First Gulf Bank PJSC AE 13,294 10.85 2.8% -14.2% 2,041 6,031 13.50 9.90 9 1.4 9.2% 12 Emaar Properties PJSC AE 13,101 6.72 -1.9% 18.1% 5,897 10,791 7.46 4.22 11 1.2 2.2% 13 Almarai Co SJSC SA 12,163 57.00 0.4% -2.9% 126 1,918 66.00 40.88 22 3.6 1.5% 14 Ezdan Holding Group QSC QA 12,095 16.60 -1.3% 4.4% 688 3,137 20.24 12.10 25 1.5 3.0% 15 National Bank of Abu Dhabi PJSC AE 12,058 8.50 0.0% 6.8% 886 2,050 10.35 6.86 9 1.0 5.3% 16 Emirates NBD Bank PJSC AE 11,955 7.90 -1.3% 6.8% 88 190 9.00 6.25 6 0.8 5.1% 17 Saudi Arabian Mining Co SJSC SA 11,438 36.70 -1.9% 10.5% 1,347 13,184 43.20 25.70 114 1.6 0.0% 18 National Bank of Kuwait SAKP KW 11,357 610.00 3.4% -18.0% 5,243 10,561 799.36 550.00 12 1.1 4.6% 19 Kingdom Holding Co SA 10,478 10.60 0.5% -32.5% 63 179 21.20 9.80 77 1.4 4.7% 20 Samba Financial Group SJSC SA 9,976 18.70 -1.1% -19.9% 938 4,677 23.55 15.90 7 0.9 4.8% 21 Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank PJSC AE 9,309 6.11 -1.1% -7.3% 651 1,082 7.74 5.20 8 1.1 7.4% 22 Emaar Malls Group PJSC AE 9,213 2.60 -1.5% -5.8% 3,473 2,458 3.25 2.02 19 2.2 3.8% 23 Ooredoo QSC QA 8,579 97.50 -0.3% 30.0% 35 948 107.00 60.00 12 1.4 3.1% 24 Kuwait Finance House KSCP KW 8,398 485.00 1.0% -1.2% 10,360 16,592 545.45 395.45 14 1.4 3.2% 25 Riyad Bank SJSC SA 7,682 9.60 3.8% -22.6% 3,387 8,671 13.15 8.55 7 0.8 7.3% 26 Emirates Integrated Telecomm Co AE 7,655 6.15 0.2% 20.6% 255 427 6.99 4.89 15 3.6 7.0% 27 Saudi British Bank SJSC SA 7,342 18.35 -1.6% -25.9% 624 3,052 28.40 16.40 6 0.9 4.1% 28 Masraf Al Rayan QSC QA 7,211 35.00 -0.4% -6.9% 168 1,615 43.65 28.60 12 2.1 5.0% 29 Yanbu National Petrochemicals Co SJSC SA 7,052 47.00 -0.6% 44.6% 467 5,854 50.50 23.80 13 1.7 4.3% 30 Dubai Islamic Bank PJSC AE 7,038 5.23 -0.9% -7.3% 2,937 4,183 6.07 4.51 7 1.1 7.9% Company Name Total M-Cap; W. Avg Yield 492,120 4.3% Data Source: Thomson Reuters Disclaimer: This report is prepared by Al Masah Capital Management Limited (“AMCML”). AMCML is a company incorporated under the DIFC Companies Law and is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (“DFSA”). The information contained in this report does not constitute an offer to sell securities or the solicitation of an offer to buy, or recommendation for investment in, any securities in any jurisdiction. The information in this report is not intended as financial advice and is only intended for professionals with appropriate investment knowledge and ones that AMCML is satisfied meet the regulatory criteria to be classified as a ‘Professional Client’ as defined under the Rules & Regulations of the appropriate financial authority. 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