Kuwait Finance House: Market Commentary - 4 January

Transcription

1. Mon , 04 Jan 2021 Report produced on Mon, 04-Jan-2021
2. Forex Market JAPANESE YEN 107 .00 106.00 105.00 104.00 103.00 102.00 101.00 CLOSE 1M %chg 3M %chg 103.20 -1.05% -2.18% USD/JPY-Consolidates with an eye on US politics - Reuters News 04-Jan-2021 03:18:36 AM *USD/JPY mired in 103.00-104.00 range, eyes Georgia runoff elections Tuesday *U.S. Senate control, and Biden's agenda, at stake in vote *Rising global virus toll to cap rallies; economic recovery optimism supports *Japan to consider new COVID-19 emergency declaration *Nikkei and APAC stock markets to set direction on Monday *Support 102.90-103.00, resistance 103.35-40, 103.60; downside vulnerable 20D SMA 1-Jan 25-Dec 18-Dec 11-Dec 4-Dec 27-Nov 20-Nov 13-Nov 6-Nov 30-Oct 23-Oct 16-Oct 9-Oct 2-Oct 100.00 50D SMA EURO 1.26 CLOSE 1M %chg 3M %chg 1.2137 0.56% 3.32% 1.24 1.22 1.20 1.18 1.16 1.14 1.12 20D SMA 50D SMA 1-Jan 25-Dec 18-Dec 11-Dec 4-Dec 27-Nov 20-Nov 13-Nov 6-Nov 30-Oct 23-Oct 16-Oct 9-Oct 2-Oct 1.10 EUR/USD-Starts year on strong note as USD broadly pressured - Reuters News 04-Jan-2021 08:48:14 AM *EUR/USD opened 1.2211 after falling 0.67% on December 31 *The opening quote at 1.2211 was the low, as USD came under pressure in Asia *EUR/USD traded up to 1.2258 and is hovering below 1.2255 into the afternoon *Sentiment towards USD decidedly bearish for the first quarter of 2021 *EUR/USD resistance has formed at 1.2305/10 where sellers are tipped *Support is at the key 21-day MA at 1.2187 and break would suggest correction *Range trading likely ahead of Georgia Senate run-offs on Tuesday in the US
3. Forex Market POUND STERLING 1 .40 CLOSE 1M %chg 3M %chg 1.3671 1.91% 6.07% 1.38 1.36 1.34 1.32 1.30 1.28 1.26 1.24 1-Jan 25-Dec 18-Dec 11-Dec 4-Dec 27-Nov 20-Nov 13-Nov 6-Nov 30-Oct 23-Oct 16-Oct 9-Oct 2-Oct 1.22 20D SMA 50D SMA TURKISH LIRA 9.00 8.50 8.00 7.50 7.00 50D SMA 1-Jan 25-Dec 18-Dec 11-Dec 4-Dec 27-Nov 20-Nov 13-Nov 6-Nov 30-Oct 23-Oct 16-Oct 9-Oct 2-Oct 6.50 20D SMA COMMENT-With Brexit 'done' the COVID-19 fight leads sterling - Reuters News 04-Jan-2021 06:36:43 AM Jan 4 (Reuters) - With Brexit finally in the rear-view mirror, the focus for sterling now centres on the social and economic repercussions of the coronavirus, which is spreading dramatically, and how fast and successful the vaccine roll-out will be. Stricter lockdown restrictions are likely in the short term, as Prime Minister Boris Johnson's popularity slips. Technically 5, 10 and 21 daily, weekly and monthly moving averages rise, which is an unusual and strong positive setup, with GBP/USD near 1.3677, 76.4% of its 2018-2020 decline. A sustained 1.3680 break would open the door to the 1.4377 2018 high. A close below the rising 1.3470 21 DMA, a base last week, would suggest a change in sentiment and scenario. CLOSE 1M %chg 3M %chg 7.4371 -4.95% -4.04% Turkey - Factors to Watch - Reuters 04-Jan-2021 10:06:58 AM ANKARA, Jan 4 (Reuters) - The lira TRYTOM=D3 stood at 7.3980 against the U.S. dollar at 0436 GMT, firming from Thursday's close of 7.44. The main BIST 100 share index .XU100 fell 0.21% to 1,476.72 on Thursday. The daily number of coronavirus cases in Turkey fell to 9,877 in the last 24 hours, health ministry data showed on Sunday, bringing the total number of cases to 2,241,912 since the country's outbreak emerged in March. The number of deaths due to COVID-19 in Turkey fell to 193 in the last 24 hours, falling below 200 for the first time since Dec. 6. The total death toll stands at 21,488.
4. Gold , US Treasury & Dollar Index GOLD 2100 2000 1900 1800 1700 1600 1500 1400 1M %chg 3M %chg 0.95 -2.36% 34.71% PRECIOUS-Gold hits 8-week peak as pandemic remains untamed 04-Jan-2021 07:03:00 AM Jan 4 (Reuters) - Gold prices climbed to their highest in eight weeks on Monday, holding above $1,900, as global COVID-19 cases spiked and countries pushed for more lockdowns despite vaccine rollouts. Spot gold XAU= rose 0.8% to $1,912.71 per ounce by 0102 GMT, its highest since Nov. 9, while U.S. gold futures GCv1 climbed 1.1% to $1,916.40. The dollar index .DXY remained weaker against rivals on Monday, making gold cheaper for holders of other currencies. SPDR Gold Trust GLD, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings rose 0.08% to 1,170.74 tonnes on Thursday. Silver XAG= gained 2.4% to $26.98 an ounce. Platinum XPT= gained 0.6% to $1,075.15 and palladium XPD= rose 0.6% at $2,461.95. 10Y US-TREASURY 2 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 UPCOMING KEY ECONOMIC INDICATOR RELEASES INDICATOR DOLLAR INDEX 20D SMA 50D SMA 1-Jan 25-Dec 18-Dec 11-Dec 4-Dec 27-Nov 20-Nov 13-Nov 6-Nov 30-Oct 23-Oct 16-Oct 9-Oct 95.00 94.00 93.00 92.00 91.00 90.00 89.00 88.00 87.00 86.00 2-Oct US 10YT YIELD Ctry / Regn Time For Prior Consensus Markit Mfg Final PMI EU 04-Jan 14:30 Dec 55.5 55.5 Sentix Index* EU 04-Jan 15:00 Jan -2.7 0.0 57.3 57.3 Markit/CIPS Mfg PMI Final GB 04-Jan 15:00 Dec Construction Spending MM * US 04-Jan 20:30 Nov 1.3 0.9 Money-M3 Annual Grwth* EU 05-Jan 15:30 Nov 10.5 10.7 Redbook MM * US 05-Jan 19:25 w/e 0.4 ISM Manuf Employment Idx US 05-Jan 20:30 Dec 48.4 ISM Mfg Prices Paid US 05-Jan 20:30 Dec 65.4 Foreign Bond Investment JP 06-Jan 05:19 w/e 802.4 ISM Manufacturing PMI US 05-Jan 20:30 Dec 57.5 Foreign Invest JP Stock JP 06-Jan 05:19 w/e -504.3 65.7 56.5
5. Daily Market Report KWD - CBK FIX CENTRAL BANK OF KUWAIT 0 .3105 KWD (CBK FIX) CLOSE 3M% CHG 0.3095 0.30320 -0.96% 0.3085 0.3075 0.3065 0.3055 0.3045 0.3035 0.3025 20-Jan-20 10-Mar-20 29-Apr-20 18-Jun-20 7-Aug-20 26-Sep-20 15-Nov-20 4-Jan-21 23-Feb-21 MARKET SUMMARY POLICY RATES INDICATOR ON Repo Rate As of 28-Oct-'20 Value 0.88 Prior 1.00 Change -0.13 1W Repo Rate 28-Oct-'20 1.13 1.25 -0.13 1M Repo Rate 28-Oct-'20 1.63 1.75 -0.13 KWD ON Rate 28-Oct-'20 10.00 10.00 0.00 28-Oct-'20 1.50 1.50 0.00 INSTRUMENT OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE %CHG 1D Discount Rate EUR 1.2214 1.2215 1.2122 1.2137 -0.62% LIBOR RATES GBP 1.3671 1.3681 1.3671 1.3671 -0.01% Tenor Value Tenor JPY 103.17 103.31 102.98 103.2 -0.04% ON 0.08 3M Value 0.24 TRY 7.3785 7.491 7.3406 7.4371 0.07% SW 0.10 6M 0.26 Dollar Idx 89.931 89.937 89.931 89.937 0.00% 1M 0.14 1Y 0.34 Brent 51.49 51.84 50.9 51.8 0.00% 2M 0.19 WTC - - - 48.35 0.00% Gold 1897.31 1898.4399 1896.752 1898.1 0.09% OTHER C-BANK RATES KWSE Index 5546.91 5560.15 5539.58 5546.04 -0.07% INDICATOR KIBOR RATES Tenor Value Tenor Value As of 15-Mar-'20 Value Prior Change FED Target Rate 0.25 0.25 0.00 ECB Refinancing Rate 10-Mar-'16 0.00 0.05 -0.05 ON 0.69 3M 1.44 BOE Bank Rate 19-Mar-'20 0.10 0.25 -0.15 SW 0.94 6M 1.69 BOJ Prime Rate 12-Aug-'20 1.00 1.05 -0.05 1M 1.19 1Y 1.94 TRY ON Lending Rate 24-Dec-'20 18.50 16.50 2.00
6. Global Top News KEY INTERNATIONAL STORIES U .S. may cut some Moderna vaccine doses in half to speed rollout, official says Japan snaps 19-month decline in factory activity in Dec -PMI Jan 3 (Reuters) - The U.S. government is considering giving some people half the dose of Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine in order to speed vaccinations, a federal official said on Sunday. Moncef Slaoui, head of Operation Warp Speed, the federal vaccine program, said on CBS' "Face the Nation" that officials were in talks with Moderna and the Food and Drug Administration about the idea. Moderna's vaccine requires two injections. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said it had administered 4,225,756 first doses of COVID-19 vaccines in the country as of Saturday morning and distributed 13,071,925 doses. TOKYO, Jan 4 (Reuters) - Japan's factory activity ended a record 19-month run of declines in December as output stabilised for the first time in two years, suggesting manufacturers are shaking off the negative impact from the coronavirus pandemic. The private-sector data contrasts somewhat with last week's government figures that showed industrial output growth stalled in November because of declines in car production on weakening U.S.- and Australia-bound shipments. The final au Jibun Bank Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to a seasonally adjusted 50.0 in December from the previous month's 49.0 and a preliminary 49.7 reading. Stricter lockdown restrictions probably on the way, says UK PM Johnson Singapore set for slow recovery from pandemic after worst recession LONDON, Jan 3 (Reuters) - British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Sunday tougher lockdown restrictions were probably on the way as COVID-19 cases keep rising, but that schools were safe and children should continue to attend where permitted. COVID-19 cases in Britain are at record levels and the increase in numbers is fuelled by a new and more transmissible variant of the virus. The government has cancelled the planned reopening of schools in and around London but teaching unions want wider closures. SINGAPORE, Jan 4 (Reuters) - Singapore marked its worst ever recession in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, although contraction moderated in the fourth quarter as the city-state lifted more coronavirus-related curbs, putting the economy on path to a slow and patchy recovery. The financial and transport hub was hit hard last year by local virus-related restrictions, border closures around the world and sluggish global economy. The bellwether economy shrank 5.8% in 2020, preliminary data showed on Monday, slightly better than the official forecast for a contraction of between 6.5% and 6%. China's Dec factory activity growth slows, higher costs hit firms Oil prices slip after OPEC warns of downside risks to demand in first-half 2021 BEIJING, Jan 4 (Reuters) - Activity in China's factory sector rose in December as the world's second-largest economy sustained its recovery to pre-pandemic levels, a business survey showed on Monday, however, increasing cost pressures slowed the pace of expansion. The Caixin/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 53.0 from November's 54.9, with the gauge staying well above the 50-level that separates growth from contraction but missing expectations and easing to the softest pace in three months. SINGAPORE, Jan 4 (Reuters) - Oil prices edged lower on Monday, the first day of 2021 trading, ahead of a meeting of OPEC and allied producers to discuss output levels for February with fears for first-half demand seeping into the market as the coronavirus pandemic lingers. Brent crude LCOc1 for March was at $51.76 a barrel, down 4 cents or 0.08%, by 0038 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude CLc1 for February fell 9 cents, or 0.2%, to $48.43 a barrel. DISCLAIMER: This document and its contents do not reflect the opinions, views, policies or positions of Refinitiv or its affiliates and they are prepared for Kuwait Finance House (KFH)’s and their clients internal consumption only and do not constitute an offer, or the solicitation of an offer, or advice to buy or sell a security or to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy or enter into any agreement. The information and any views expressed are given as of the date of writing and are subject to change. 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