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Indonesia: Business Survey - Quarter III 2020

IM Insights
By IM Insights
3 years ago
Indonesia: Business Survey - Quarter III 2020

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  1. BUSINESS SURVEY QUARTER III - 2020 BUSINESS CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED Business Activity Production Capacity , Labour and Financial Condition Business Optimism The latest edition of the Business Survey performed by Bank Indonesia showed that business conditions improved across all economic sectors in the third quarter of 2020, with the weighted net balance (WNB) improving significantly to -5.97% from -35.75% in the second quarter of 2020. Supported by adaptation to the New Normal in various regions, the main drivers of the recent gains include the Manufacturing Industry; Trade, Accommodation and Food Service Activities; Transportation and Communication; as well as Finance, Real Estate and Corporate Services. On the other hand, improvements in the Agricultural, Forestry and Fishing sector have been supported by conducive weather conditions. Consistent with improving business activity, survey respondents also confirmed higher production capacity and labor utilization in the third quarter of 2020. Meanwhile, liquidity and profitability also increased in the reporting period, along with access to bank loans. Respondents predicted business activity to continue improving in the fourth quarter of 2020, as denoted by WNB of 2.21%, in line with optimism that adaptation to the New Normal will stimulate demand. By sector, respondents expected stronger business activity in most economic sectors, particularly Finance, Real Estate and Corporate Services; Trade, Accommodation and Food Service Activities; as well as Transportation and Communication. A. Business Activity Despite remaining in a contractionary phase, business conditions improved in the third quarter of 2020, with respondents expecting positive growth to persist moving forward. The latest edition of the Business Survey performed by Bank Indonesia showed that despite remaining in a contractionary phase, business conditions improved in the third quarter of 2020. This was confirmed by an improvement in the weighted net balance (WNB) to -5.97% from -35.75% in the second quarter of 2020 (Graph 1), driven by all economic sectors, particularly the Manufacturing Industry (WNB -1.45%), Trade, Accommodation and Food Service Activities (WNB -2.30%) as well as Transportation and Communication (WNB -0.19%). In addition, several sectors recorded positive performance, namely Financial, Real Estate and Corporate Services activities (WNB 0.26%), Electricity, Gas and Water Supply (0.18%) as well as Agriculture, Plantations, Livestock and Forestry (WNB 0.18%). The respondents disclosed a number of factors driving business activity in the third quarter of 2020, including Financial subsector gains, food crop and plantation harvesting seasons, a surge of new Business Survey 1
  2. customers in the Electricity subsector as well as increasing demand and trade affecting Food , Beverages and Tobacco as well as Textiles, Leather Products and Footwear. Graph 1 Business Activity (% qtq) (% WNB) 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 -5.0 30.0 3.06 20.0 7.79 2.21 13.39 10.0 0.0 -5.97 -1.74 -10.0 -20.0 -30.0 -4.19 I II III IV I 2016 II III IV I 2017 II III 2018 IV I II III IV 2019 I -35.75 II III -40.0 IV* 2020 *) Expectation GDP Growth (LHS) Business Activity (RHS) Respondents predicted positive business performance in the fourth quarter of 2020, with a WNB of 2.21%, which is nevertheless still below the 7.79% recorded in the fourth quarter of 2019. Respondents expected improvements across most economic sectors, led by Financial, Real Estate and Corporate Services (WNB 1.77%), Trade, Accommodation and Food Service Activities (WNB 1.70%), Transportation and Communications (WNB 1.00%) as well as Services (WNB 0.86%). Stronger business performance in the fourth quarter of 2020 is in line with public expectations and optimism concerning adaptation to the New Normal, which will stimulate demand. B. Production Capacity Consistent with business activity, average production capacity utilisation has increased on the previous period. Consistent with business activity, average production capacity utilisation increased to 71.77% in the third quarter of 2020 compared with 69.28% in the previous period, yet remains below the 75.42% recorded in the third quarter of 2019 (Graph 2). Respondents confirmed higher production capacity utilisation across nearly all sectors, including Mining and Quarrying (70.49%), in line with stronger demand supported by favourable weather conditions, as well as the availability of raw materials and infrastructure for mining activity. In addition, production capacity utilisation also increased in terms of Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry and Fishing, bolstered by the food crop harvesting season as well as weather conditions conducive to plantation and fishing activities. Meanwhile, production capacity utilisation in the Manufacturing Industry has also increased as business conditions improve in line with adaptation to the New Normal era. The highest level of production capacity utilisation was maintained by Electricity, Gas and Water Supply, despite slipping to 80.59% in the reporting period from a WNB of 82.04% in the second quarter of 2020. Business Survey 2
  3. Graph 2 (%) 85 80.71 80 76.91 75 82.04 79.50 80.59 74.70 76.22 74.87 73.98 73.51 70 70.49 68.62 67.29 65 65.98 67.38 75.42 55 77.18 60 II III 71.77 61.83 69.28 90 Capacity Utilisation II III 50 I II III IV I 2016 II III 2017 IV I II III 2018 IV I IV 2019 I 2020 TOTAL Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry, & Fishery Mining and quarrying Manufacturing Industry Electricity, Gas and Water Supply C. Financial Conditions and Access to Credit Corporate financial conditions improved in the third quarter of 2020, accompanied by better access to credit. Corporate financial conditions improved in the third quarter of 2020 despite remaining in a contractionary phase. In terms of liquidity, the net balance (NB) increased to -2.82% in the third quarter of 2020 from -18.13% in the previous period. The proportion of survey respondents who reported sound liquidity conditions in the third quarter of 2020 increased to 17.73% from 11.43% in the second quarter of 2020. Moreover, 20.56% of respondents confirmed deteriorating liquidity conditions in the third quarter of 2020, down from 29.56%. Similarly, corporate ability to record a profit improved in the third quarter of 2020, with the NB increasing to -6.34% from -25.56% in the previous period. Mirroring liquidity trends, the percentage of respondents reporting increasing profitability conditions to 17.18% from 10.57%, accompanied by a decline from 36.14% in the second quarter of 2020 to 23.52% in the third quarter of 2020 in terms of the proportion of respondents confirming deteriorating profitability conditions. Regarding access to bank loans, respondents reported looser access to credit in the third quarter of 2020, as indicated by an improvement in the NB to -5.96% from -9.14% in the second quarter of 2020. Furthermore, the percentage of respondents reporting looser access to bank loans increased to 6.44% from 4.70% previously, while the percentage of respondents experiencing tighter access to bank loans declined to 12.40% from 13.86% in the reporting period. Business Survey 3
  4. D . Labour Ulitisation Labour utilisation increased in the third quarter of 2020, with respondents expecting the upward trend to persist in the fourth quarter. The weighted net balance (WNB) of labour utilisation increased in the third quarter of 2020 to -16.47% from -22.35% in the second quarter of 2020. By sector, broader gains were reported across various sectors in line with stronger sectoral performance, led by the Manufacturing Industry, Trade, Accommodation and Food Service Activities as well as Services. Respondents expected the improvements to persist in the fourth quarter of 2020, as confirmed by a WNB of -9.56%. By sector, respondents expected most sectors to utilise more labour in the fourth quarter of 2020, especially Trade, Accommodation and Food Service Activities (WNB 0.80%), the Manufacturing Industry (WNB -2.76%) as well as Financial, Real Estate and Corporate Services activities (WNB -0.06%). Graph 1 Labour Utilisation % WNB 10.0 6.0 1.40 0.95 2.0 -2.0 -6.0 -9.56 -10.0 -14.0 -16.47 -18.0 -22.0 -22.35 -26.0 I II III 2016 IV I II III IV I 2017 II III 2018 IV I II III 2019 IV I II III IV* 2020 *) Expectation E. Selling Prices Producers confirmed a buildup of inflationary pressures in the third quarter of 2020 but are expecting milder price pressures in the fourth quarter of 2020. Producers confirmed higher selling prices in the third quarter of 2020, with the corresponding WNB increasing to 2.76% from -7.16% yet remaining below the 13.15% recorded in the third quarter of 2019 (Graph 4). By sector, the largest increase in average selling prices was recorded in the Mining and Quarrying sector (WNB 2.17%) and the Manufacturing Industry (WNB 0.27%). In addition, the sectors with the highest WNB in the reporting period were Trade, Accommodation and Food Service Activities (WNB 0.49%) as well as Agriculture, Plantations, Livestock, Forestry and Fishing (WNB 0.42%). Meanwhile, respondents expected milder price pressures in the fourth quarter of 2020, with the WNB decreasing to 0.36% from 2.76% in the third quarter of 2020 and from 14.88% in the fourth quarter of 2019. This was influenced by lower selling prices in the Mining and Quarrying sector (WNB -4.71%). Business Survey 4
  5. Graph 2 Selling Price % WNB 20.0 13.15 15.0 14.88 10.0 2.76 5.0 0.0 0.36 -5.0 -7.16 -10.0 -15.0 I II III 2016 IV I II III 2017 IV I II III 2018 IV I II III 2019 IV I II III IV* 2020 *) Expectation F. Inflation Respondents predicted inflation in 2020 at 3.42%. According to the latest Business Survey, respondents predicted inflation in 2020 at 3.42% (yoy), which is within the target corridor for 2020 at 3.0%±1%. By economic sector, respondents in Agriculture, Plantations, Livestock, Forestry and Fishing predicted the highest inflation rate, averaging 3.84% (yoy), followed by Manufacturing Industry and Construction (3.55%, yoy), contrasting the lowest rate forecasted by respondents in Electricity, Gas and Water Supply at 3.16% (yoy) on average. G. Investment Corporate propensity to invest increased in the third quarter of 2020. Corporate propensity to invest improved in the third quarter of 2020, as indicated by an increase in the WNB to -1.27% from -13.06% (Table 7-Appendix). Respondents across all economic sectors confirmed stronger investment realisation in the third quarter of 2020, led by Mining and Quarrying with a WNB of 4.95%. In addition, investment in several other sectors also improved, including Services (WNB -0.09%) and the Manufacturing Industry (WNB -2.88%). Consistent with business conditions, respondents appeared more upbeat concerning conditions in the fourth quarter of 2020, as reflected by a positive WNB of 2.01%, driven by various sectors including Services (WNB 0.82%), Financial, Real Estate and Corporate Services activities (WNB 0.20%), Electricity, Gas and Water Supply (WNB 0.12%) as well as Transportation and Communication (WNB 0.02%). Nevertheless, investment in the Mining and Quarrying sector was expected to remain positive yet decelerate on the previous period (WNB 3.70%). Business Survey 5
  6. H . Wages On average, wages have declined in the second semester of 2020 compared with conditions in the latter half of 2019. On average, wages have declined in the second semester of 2020 compared with conditions in the first semester of 2020, as confirmed by a decline in the NB to -2.05% from 38.85% in the first half of the year. Wages have fallen in nearly all economic sectors, with Trade, Accommodation and Food Service Activities (NB -14.60%) hardest hit, followed by the Manufacturing Industry (NB -0.22%). Nominally, foreman/supervisor level salaries averaged Rp4.53 million per month in the second semester of 2020, with non-foreman/supervisor employees taking home an average of Rp2.91 million per month. By economic sector, Electricity, Gas and Water Supply paid the highest wages/salaries, averaging Rp6.20 million per month for a foreman/supervisor and Rp3.83 million per month for non-foreman/supervisor wages (Table 9-Appendix). The Survey also showed that most respondents (77.87%) were not planning to raise wages/salaries in the second half of 2020 due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Notwithstanding, respondents in Electricity, Gas and Water Supply stated that wages would be raised due to higher worker productivity. In addition, respondents in other sectors disclosed that wages would be increased in line with the sectoral and regional minimum wage set by local government (Table 10Appendix). I. Profit Margin Survey respondents confirmed that profit margins have tended to shrink (14.41%) compared with conditions in the first semester of 2020 (16.33%) and the second semester of 2019 (14.90%). Profit margins have narrowed across most economic sectors, excluding Mining and Quarrying in line with early signs of rising mining commodity prices towards the end of the third quarter of 2020 (Table 11-Appendix). J. Prompt Manufacturing Index – Bank Indonesia* The PMI-BI pointed to improving manufacturing industry conditions. The PMI-BI pointed to improving manufacturing industry conditions despite remaining below the 50-point threshold indicating contraction with a reading of 44.91% in the third quarter of 2020 compared with 28.55% in the second quarter of 2020. All manufacturing industry subsectors posted a stronger PMI – BI in the third quarter of 2020 yet remained in contractionary territory, led by Cement and Non-Metal Mineral Products (48.49%), followed by Food, Beverages and Tobacco (48.0%) as well as Paper and Printing (46.37%). Respondents predicted further broad-based improvements across all manufacturing industry subsectors in the fourth quarter of 2020 despite remaining in a contractionary phase at 47.16% compared with 44.91% in the third quarter of 2020. Respondents expected the gains to be driven by higher inventories in line with a predicted surge of production volume in the upcoming period. In addition, a couple of sectors edged into expansionary territory, namely Food, Beverages and Tobacco (51.53%) as well as Cement and Non-Metal Mineral Products (50.00%). Business Survey *) Full PMI-BI Survey is available: https://www.bi.go.id/id/publikasi/survei/Prompt-Manufacturing-Index/Default.aspx 6
  7. K . Sectoral Review Agricultural, Plantation, Livestock, Forestry and Fisheries Sector Business activity in the Agricultural, Plantation, Livestock, Forestry and Fishing sector increased in the third quarter of 2020 but is expected to fade in the subsequent period in line with seasonal trends. In general, business activity in the Agricultural, Plantation, Livestock, Forestry and Fishing sector increased in the third quarter of 2020 (Graph 5), as indicated by a positive WNB of 0.18% after recording a -1.75% WNB contraction in the second quarter of 2020. All subsectors posted gains, with Food Crops achieving positive 1.10% WNB growth in line with the dry season rice harvest along with weather conducive to food crop production, particularly in East Java, Central Java, West Java and South Sulawesi, which are considered the national rice bowl of Indonesia. Respondents also confirmed improving labour absorption in the Agricultural, Plantation, Livestock, Forestry and Fishing sector in the third quarter of 2020 (Graph 6), as indicated by an increase in the WNB to -0.75% from -1.42% in the second quarter of 2020. Most subsectors reported higher labour utilisation in the reporting period, excluding the livestock subsector, which remained stable. Respondents predicted declining business activity in the Agricultural, Plantation, Livestock, Forestry and Fishing sector in the fourth quarter of 2020 (Graph 6), with the WNB sliding back into negative territory at -1.08% from 0.18% in the previous period. Declines are expected in the Food Crop Subsector (WNB -1.0%) as the rice harvest comes to an end and the main planting season begins. On the other hand, respondents predicted stronger performance amongst other subsectors, including the plantation subsector, which will drive the Agricultural, Plantation, Livestock, Forestry and Fishing sector. Crude Palm Oil (CPO) production is expected to increase in line with higher international prices since the end of September 2020. Respondents anticipated greater labour utilisation in the Agricultural, Plantation, Livestock, Forestry and Fishing sector moving forward (Graph 6), as indicated by a WNB of -0.31% in the fourth quarter of 2020, up from -0.75% in the third quarter of 2020. Respondents expected the Food Crop subsector to contribute to higher fourth-quarter labour utilisation, with a WNB of 0.0% compared with -0.10% in the previous period, in line with stronger demand for labour during the main rice planting season. Graph 5 Business Activity of Agricultural, Plantation, Livestock, Forestry and Fisheries Sector Graph 6 (%, qtq) (%, WNB) 4.0 20.0 0.18 10.0 1.00 0.0 0.50 -1.08 -1.75 -2.03 -4.0 (%, WNB) 1.50 0.46 0.0 -0.07 Labour Utilisation of Agricultural, Plantation, Livestock, Forestry and Fisheries Sector -10.0 -20.0 -8.0 0.00 -0.01 -0.31 -0.50 -30.0 I II III 2016 IV I II III 2017 IV I II III 2018 IV I II III IV I 2019 II III IV* -0.75 -1.00 2020 -1.50 Quarterly GDP Growth - RHS *) Expectation WNB Business Activity I II III 2016 Business Survey -1.42 *) Expectation -2.00 IV I II III 2017 IV I II III 2018 IV I II III IV I II 2019 III 2020 7 IV*
  8. Mining and Quarrying Sector The Mining and Quarrying sector posted improvements in the third quarter of 2020 , which are expected to persist in the subsequent period. The Mining and Quarrying sector posted improvements in the third quarter of 2020, despite the WNB remaining negative at -1.25% after improving from -1.78% in the previous period (Graph 7). Mining commodity prices have begun to rise on stronger demand, which is driving Mining and Quarrying sector performance. In addition, respondents also stated that sectoral performance is regaining upward as the government transitions away from large-scale social restrictions in several regions, thus increasing the availability of production facilities and infrastructure. Notwithstanding, labour utilisation in the Mining and Quarrying sector indicated a decline in the third quarter of 2020 in response to efficiency gains implemented by several firms, with the WNB deteriorating to -3.61% from -0.88% in the previous period (Graph 8). Respondents predicted a shallower Mining and Quarrying sector contraction in the fourth quarter of 2020, with a WNB of -0.94%. Nonetheless, respondents still expected lower labour utilisation as firms in the sector continue to enhance efficiency, as reflected by a decline in the corresponding WNB to -4.78% from -3.61% in the previous period. Graph 7 Business Activity of Mining and Quarrying Sector Graph 8 (%, qtq) (%, WNB) Labour Utilisation of Mining and Quarrying Sector (%, WNB) 2.00 2.0 4.00 1.00 1.21 -0.94 0.00 -1.25 -1.25 -2.0 0.18 0.32 0.00 0.0 -0.88 -1.00 -2.00 -1.78 -3.00 -4.0 -4.00 I II III 2016 IV I II III 2017 IV I II III 2018 IV I II III IV 2019 I II III 2020 IV* -3.61 -4.00 -5.00 -4.78 *) Expectation Quarterly GDP Growth - RHS *) Expectation WNB Business Activity -6.00 I II III 2016 IV I II III IV 2017 I II III 2018 IV I II III IV I II 2019 III IV* 2020 Manufacturing Industry The Manufacturing Industry recorded improvements in the third quarter of 2020, which are expected to persist in the fourth quarter of 2020. The Manufacturing Industry recorded improvements in the third quarter of 2020, as evidenced by a significant WNB improvement to -1.45% from -11.61% in the second quarter of 2020 (Graph 9). The respondents confirmed stronger performance across all manufacturing industry subsectors given adaptation to the New Normal era that has stimulated production and smooth distribution, led by the Transportation Equipment, Machinery and Apparatus subsector (WNB 0.28%), Textiles, Leather Products and Footwear (WNB -0.64%) as well as Food, Beverages and Tobacco (WNB -0.50%). Such developments are consistent with the latest Prompt Manufacturing Index – Bank Indonesia (PMI – BI), which improved from 28.55% in the second quarter of 2020 but remained in contractionary territory below the 50-point threshold at 44.91% (Graph 10). Meanwhile, labour absorption by the manufacturing industry increased in the third quarter of 2020 in line with business activity, as reflected by an improvement in the WNB to -4.49% from 7.97% in the previous period. All subsectors recorded gains in the WNB of labour utilisation, with the strongest gains confirmed by respondents in the Food, Beverages and Tobacco industry (WNB 0.96%) as well as Textiles, Leather Products and Footwear (WNB -0.93%). Business Survey 8
  9. In the fourth quarter of 2020 , respondents predicted a furtherance of the manufacturing industry gains, with a shallower -1.36% WNB contraction compared with -1.45% in the third quarter of 2020. Respondents expected all economic sectors to improve, driven by the Food, Beverages and Tobacco industry (WNB 0.50%), excluding the Transportation Equipment, Machinery and Apparatus subsector as well as the Iron and Steel industry. Furthermore, respondents expected manufacturing industry activities to pick up across all components, inventories and production volume in particular. Consistent with the expected increase of business activity, the Prompt Manufacturing Index – Bank Indonesia (PMI – BI) was also predicted to improve from 44.91% in the third quarter of 2020 to 47.16% in the fourth quarter of 2020. The upcoming improvements predicted by respondents in the fourth quarter of 2020 will also boost labour absorption, as indicated by a shallower -2.76% WNB contraction. Respondents anticipated higher labour absorption in the majority of economic sectors, led by Food and Beverages (WNB -0.62%) as well as Textiles, Leather Products and Footwear (WNB -0.63%). Business Activity of Manufacturing Industry Graph 10 (%, WNB) (%, qtq) 6.0 6.00 3.05 4.0 -1.36 2.00 0.0 -2.0 0.00 -1.45 -4.0 -2.00 -6.0 -8.0 -4.00 -11.61 -10.0 -6.00 -12.0 -14.0 CONTRACTION 4.00 0.76 2.0 EXPANSION Graph 9 Business Activity of Manufacturing Industry vs PMI - BIBS (%, qtq) (%, index) 52.04 55.00 4.00 50.00 47.16 3.05 45.00 44.91 II III 2016 IV I II III 2017 IV I II III 2018 IV I II III IV I 2019 II III IV* 40.00 -1.45 35.00 *) Expectation -4.00 -8.00 28.55 -10.00 25.00 2020 WNB Business Activity -2.00 -6.00 30.00 -12.00 -11.61 20.00 Quarterly GDP Growth - RHS 2.00 -1.360.00 0.76 -8.00 I 6.00 51.50 I II III 2016 IV I II III 2017 PMI - BI IV I II III 2018 IV I II III 2019 IV I -14.00 II III IV* 2020 WNB Manufacturing Business Activity (rhs) *) Expectation Electricity, Gas and Water Supply Sector Respondents confirmed increasing Electricity, Gas and Water Supply activity in the third quarter of 2020, with stable fourthquarter conditions predicted. Respondents confirmed positive Electricity, Gas and Water Supply growth in the third quarter of 2020 (WNB 0.18%) after a period of contraction (WNB -0.04%) in the second quarter (Graph 11). Positive growth was triggered by a surge of new customers in the reporting period. On the other hand, labour utilisation has remained relatively stable at -0.18% in the third quarter of 2020 compared with -0.17% in the second quarter of 2020 (Graph 12). In the fourth quarter of 2020, respondents predicted relatively stable Electricity, Gas and Water Supply activity, with the WNB moving to 0.19% from 0.18% in the previous period. Congruently, respondents also predicted comparatively stable labour utilisation in the fourth quarter of 2020. Business Survey 9
  10. Graph 11 Business Activity of Electricity , Gas and Water Supply Sector Graph 12 (%, WNB) (%, WNB) (%, qtq) 0.4 Labour Utilisation of Electricity, Gas and Water Supply Sector 0.15 6.00 0.10 0.31 0.31 0.05 0.19 0.2 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.18 -0.04 -0.06 -0.05 0.0 -6.00 -0.10 -0.04 -0.15 -0.2 -12.00 I II III IV I 2016 II III IV I II 2017 III IV I II 2018 III IV I 2019 II III IV* -0.17 -0.20 2020 -0.25 I Quarterly GDP Growth - RHS -0.18 *) Expectation WNB Business Activity II III IV I 2016 *) Expectation II III IV I 2017 II III IV I 2018 II III IV I II 2019 III IV* 2020 Construction Sector Business activity increased in the Construction sector during the third quarter of 2020, with respondents expecting positive growth in the subsequent period. Business activity increased in the Construction sector during the third quarter of 2020 yet remained in a -1.00% WNB contraction compared with -3.29% in the previous period (Graph 13). Most respondents cited the transition away from large-scale social restrictions for increasing domestic demand in terms of infrastructure projects, coupled with ongoing government projects. In addition, lower rainfall has also supported ongoing project work. Meanwhile, labour utilisation has increased in the Construction sector, as indicated by a WNB of -1.07%, up from -1.75% in the previous period in line with restarting activity in the Construction sector (Graph 14). In the fourth quarter of 2020, respondents expected Construction activity to accelerate further, as confirmed by a positive WNB of 0.06% compared with -1.00% in the previous period. Furthermore, survey respondents predicted increasing activity to impact labour utilisation, with the WNB improving to -0.30%. Graph 13 Business Activity of Construction Sector Graph 14 (%, WNB) (%, qtq) 2.0 8.00 1.24 (%, WNB) 1.00 0.53 0.66 1.0 Labour Utilisation of Construction Sector 0.06 4.00 0.50 0.06 0.0 -1.0 0.00 -1.00 -2.0 0.00 -0.30 -0.50 -4.00 -3.0 -4.0 I II III 2016 IV I II III IV 2017 I II III 2018 IV I II III IV I 2019 -3.29 II III 2020 -1.07 -1.00 -8.00 IV* -1.50 *) Expectation *) Expectation Quarterly GDP Growth - RHS WNB Business Activity -1.75 -2.00 I II III 2016 IV I II III 2017 IV I II III 2018 IV I II III IV I 2019 II III IV* 2020 Trade, Hotels and Restaurants Sector Trade, Accommodation and Food Service Activities experienced a significantly shallower contraction in the third quarter of 2020. Business Survey Trade, Accommodation and Food Service Activities experienced a significantly shallower contraction in the third quarter of 2020, with the WNB improving to -2.30% from -7.21% in the second quarter of 2020 (Graph 15). This is in line with adaptation to the New Normal era since the beginning of July 2020, together with the national Independence Day festive period in August 2020, which stimulated public activities. Respondents reported gains across all subsectors, particularly Trade (WNB -2.16%). 10
  11. The recent upswing of Trade , Accommodation and Food Service Activities has had a significant impact on labour utilisation, as confirmed by a WNB of -3.30% compared with -4.72% in the previous period. Respondents reported stronger labour utilisation across all subsectors, particularly Trade (WNB -2.33%) (Graph 16). Respondents predicted further fourth-quarter improvements in 2020, with Trade, Accommodation and Food Service Activities moving out of a contractionary phase. Respondents predicted further improvements in the fourth quarter of 2020, with Trade, Accommodation and Food Service Activities moving out of a contractionary phase to reach a WNB of 1.70% from -2.30% in the previous period. Respondents expected increasing business activity across all subsectors, especially Trade (WNB 1.48%). Respondents also expected the level of labour utilisation in the Trade, Hotels and Restaurants sector to increase in the fourth quarter of 2020, with a WNB of -0.80%, led by the Trade subsector (WNB -0.60%). Graph 15 Business Activity of Trade, Hotels and Restaurants Sector Graph 16 (%, WNB) (%, qtq) 6.0 2.76 4.0 1.70 2.0 2.06 0.0 -2.0 -2.30 -4.0 -6.0 -7.21 -8.0 I II III IV I 2016 II III 2017 IV I II III 2018 Quarterly GDP Growth - RHS IV I II III IV I 2019 II III 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 -2.0 -4.0 -6.0 -8.0 -10.0 -12.0 IV* (%, WNB) 2.00 1.00 *) Expectation 0.45 0.04 0.00 -0.80 -1.00 -2.00 -3.30 -3.00 -4.00 2020 WNB Business Activity Labour Utilisation of Trade, Hotels and Restaurants Sector *) Expectation -4.72 -5.00 I II III 2016 IV I II III 2017 IV I II III 2018 IV I II III IV I 2019 II III IV* 2020 Transportation and Communication Sector Business activity in the Transportation and Communication sector improved in the third quarter of 2020, with respondents expecting a further acceleration in the fourth quarter of 2020. The Transportation and Communication sector recorded a shallower -0.19% WNB contraction in the third quarter of 2020 compared with -2.91% in the second quarter 2020. Gains were reported in both subsectors, Transportation in particular (WNB -0.07%). In line with the shallower contraction, respondents also confirmed stronger yet negative labour utilisation growth in the third quarter of 2020, as indicated by a WNB of -1.01%. Respondents reported increasing labour utilisation in the Transportation subsector (WNB -0.76%) and the Communication subsector (WNB -0.25%). Respondents expected a further acceleration of business activity in the Transportation and Communication sector in the fourth quarter of 2020, as reflected by a positive WNB of 1.00% compared with -0.19% in the previous period. Respondents predicted stronger business activity in all subsectors, particularly Transportation (WNB 0.93%), driven by the national festive period at Christmas and New Year, despite remaining below the fourth-quarter average for the past three years of 1.09%. Stronger business activity was expected to translate into higher labour utilisation in the fourth quarter of 2020, as indicated by a WNB of -0.47% compared with -1.01% in the third quarter of 2020. Respondents anticipated higher labour utilisation primarily in the Transportation subsector Business Survey 11
  12. (WNB -0.32%) in line with corporate labour requirements to satisfy consumer demand for transportation during the Christmas and New Year festive period, albeit on a more limited scale compared with previous years. Graph 17 Business Activity of Transportation and Communication Sector (%, WNB) Graph 18 (%,qtq) Labour Utilisation of Transportation and Communication Sector (%, WNB) 0.60 4.0 2.0 1.00 0.0 0.47 1.06 -0.19 -2.0 -2.91 -4.0 I II III IV 2016 I II III 2017 IV I II III 2018 Quarterly GDP Growth - RHS *) Expectation IV I II III IV I 2019 SBT Keg. Usaha II III 2020 IV* 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 -2.0 -4.0 -6.0 -8.0 -10.0 -12.0 0.40 0.20 0.01 0.13 0.00 -0.20 -0.47 -0.40 -0.60 -0.80 -1.01 -1.00 -1.20 -1.40 *) Expectation -1.42 -1.60 I II III 2016 IV I II III 2017 IV I II III 2018 IV I II III IV I 2019 II III IV* 2020 Financial, Real Estate and Corporate Services Sector Business activity in the Financial, Real Estate and Corporate Services sector recorded positive growth in the third quarter of 2020, which is expected to persist in the fourth quarter of 2020. Business activity in the Financial, Real Estate and Corporate Services sector recorded positive growth in the third quarter of 2020, as reflected by a WNB of 0.26% compared with -2.69% in the second quarter of 2020. Respondents confirmed increasing business activity in all subsectors, led by Banking (WNB 1.19%), despite ongoing contractions affecting Real Estate and Corporate Services (Graph 19). The level of labour absorption in the Financial, Real Estate and Corporate Services sector recorded a modest improvement on the previous period, with a WNB of -1.20% in the third quarter of 2020, up slightly from -1.29% in the previous period. By subsector, labour absorption was observed to increase in terms of Non-Bank Financial Institutions (WNB -0.02%) as well as Real Estate (WNB 0.36%) (Graph 20). In the fourth quarter of 2020, respondents predicted stronger business activity in the Financial, Real Estate and Corporate Services sector, with the WNB increasing to 1.77% from 0.26% in the third quarter of 2020. The gains were forecasted across all subsectors, particularly Banking and Real Estate (WNB 1.45% and 0.19% respectively), despite negative growth expected to persist in terms of Corporate Services. The Banking Industry recovery was also confirmed by higher credit targets. Meanwhile, respondents also expected labour absorption to improve in the Financial, Real Estate and Corporate Services sector from a WNB of -1.20% in the third quarter of 2020 to -0.06% in the fourth quarter of 2020. By subsector, respondents predicted a significant increase of labour absorption in the Banking Industry (WNB 0.18%) and Non-Bank Financial Institutions (WNB 0.05%). Business Survey 12
  13. Graph 19 Business Activity of Financial , Real Estate and Corporate Services Sector (%, WNB) Graph 20 (%, qtq) 5.0 4.0 3.01 3.0 1.77 2.99 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.26 -1.0 -2.0 -2.69 -3.0 -4.0 I II III IV I II 2016 III IV I II 2017 III IV I II 2018 III IV I II 2019 Labour Utilisation of Financial, Real Estate and Corporate Services Sector (%, WNB) 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 -5.0 -6.0 -7.0 -8.0 -9.0 1.50 1.00 0.30 0.50 0.30 -0.06 0.00 -0.50 -1.20 -1.00 III IV* -1.29 -1.50 2020 *) Expectation Quarterly GDP Growth - RHS *) Ex[ectation WNB Business Activity -2.00 I II III IV I 2016 II III IV I 2017 II III IV I 2018 II III IV I 2019 II III IV* 2020 Services Sector Business activity in the Services sector improved in the third quarter of 2020, with respondents expecting a further acceleration in the fourth quarter of 2020. Business activity in the Services sector recorded a shallower contraction in the third quarter of 2020, with the WNB increasing significantly to -0.40% from -4.49% in the second quarter of 2020 (Graph 21). In terms of labour absorption, the WNB improved to -0.84% from -2.75% in the previous period (Graph 22). Respondents expected business activity to accelerate in the services sector during the fourth quarter of 2020, as reflected by a WNB of 0.86%, up from -0.40% in the third quarter of 2020. Furthermore, increasing business activity was predicted to feed through to a shallower contraction of labour absorption, with the WNB improving to -0.09% from -0.84% in the third quarter of 2020. Graph 21 Business Activity of Services Sector (%, WNB) Graph 22 (%, qtq) 6.0 12.0 4.0 2.13 Labour Utilisation of Services Sector (%, WNB) 2.00 1.50 2.51 0.86 2.0 6.0 0.89 0.98 1.00 0.50 0.0 0.0 -0.40 -2.0 -6.0 -4.0 -0.09 0.00 -0.50 -1.00 -6.0 I II III 2016 IV I II III 2017 IV I II 2018 Quarterly GDP Growth - RHS *) Expectation III IV I II III IV I 2019 WNB Business Activity -4.49 II III IV* 2020 -12.0 -0.84 -1.50 -2.00 -2.50 *) Expectation I II III 2016 Business Survey -2.75 -3.00 IV I II III 2017 IV I II III 2018 IV I II III IV I 2019 II III 2020 13 IV*
  14. APPENDIX Tabel 1 Business Activity (Weighted Net Balance - WNB) SECTOR Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry, & Fishery 2016 I II 2017 III IV I II 2018 III IV I II 2019 III IV I II 2020 III IV I II III IV* 1.03 2.38 1.75 -4.07 1.98 1.57 0.40 -1.40 2.40 2.81 0.54 -2.06 2.43 2.05 -0.07 -2.03 0.40 -1.75 0.18 -1.08 Farm Food Crops 0.86 1.21 0.87 -3.48 2.52 0.62 -0.04 -1.46 2.20 0.90 -0.07 -1.71 2.28 0.51 -0.82 -1.80 0.90 0.93 1.10 -1.08 Non-food Crops 0.04 0.30 0.22 -0.15 -0.10 0.53 0.23 0.29 -0.07 0.92 0.41 -0.06 0.11 0.65 0.53 -0.14 0.19 -0.85 -0.30 0.35 Livestock & Products 0.04 0.53 0.42 -0.06 -0.03 0.29 0.32 0.18 0.33 0.33 0.31 0.02 -0.10 0.71 0.29 0.00 0.02 -0.55 -0.19 -0.18 Forestry -0.09 0.26 0.41 0.00 0.00 -0.13 0.13 -0.07 0.08 0.03 0.08 -0.06 -0.05 0.05 0.00 0.07 -0.32 -0.62 -0.04 0.10 Fishery 0.17 0.08 -0.17 -0.38 -0.41 0.26 -0.24 -0.34 -0.15 0.64 -0.19 -0.26 0.19 0.14 -0.07 -0.16 -0.40 -0.66 -0.39 -0.27 Mining and quarrying -1.30 1.69 0.44 -1.82 -2.14 -1.63 1.60 0.08 -0.07 1.01 0.37 -0.97 0.39 0.36 1.21 -1.25 -0.62 -1.78 -1.25 -0.94 Manufacturing Industry -0.77 3.41 1.09 1.44 -0.58 3.81 1.76 -0.12 2.17 3.96 3.85 0.32 1.00 3.57 3.05 0.76 -3.60 -11.61 -1.45 -1.36 -0.04 2.23 -0.15 0.17 -1.25 1.60 0.04 -0.45 0.04 1.76 1.53 0.18 0.71 1.86 0.54 0.60 0.07 -1.88 -0.50 0.50 Textile, leather products ang footwear 0.02 0.87 0.00 0.07 -0.11 0.29 0.00 -0.18 0.08 0.38 0.30 0.09 0.00 0.71 0.38 0.16 -0.60 -2.27 -0.64 -0.51 Wood products & other wood products -0.24 0.15 0.07 0.10 0.05 0.30 0.01 0.00 1.19 0.30 0.15 0.05 -0.09 0.12 0.02 0.06 -0.32 -1.08 -0.30 -0.14 Paper and printing -0.28 0.46 0.09 0.18 0.16 0.42 0.48 0.05 0.07 0.00 0.52 0.19 0.21 0.23 0.24 0.22 -0.22 -0.93 -0.05 0.00 Fertilizers, chemicals and rubber products -0.08 0.58 0.47 0.45 0.34 0.00 0.97 0.17 0.04 0.40 0.41 0.06 0.03 0.60 0.62 0.03 -0.52 -1.05 -0.18 -0.15 Food, beverages and tobacco Cement and non metalic mineral products 0.12 0.00 0.16 0.00 -0.17 0.16 0.00 0.06 -0.14 0.18 0.03 0.08 -0.04 -0.10 0.11 0.21 -0.23 -0.50 0.02 0.04 Iron and basic steel -0.08 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.04 0.15 0.21 0.07 1.03 0.05 0.13 0.07 -0.04 0.03 0.08 0.05 -0.23 -0.37 -0.11 -0.16 Transport equipment, machinery & apparatus -0.19 -0.91 0.38 0.47 0.37 0.88 0.00 0.16 -0.14 0.87 0.73 -0.04 0.27 0.11 0.99 -0.62 -1.59 -3.38 0.28 -0.96 Other manufacturing products 0.00 0.03 0.02 0.00 -0.01 0.02 0.05 -0.01 -0.02 0.01 0.03 0.00 -0.05 -0.01 0.07 0.05 0.02 -0.14 0.02 0.01 Electricity, Gas and Water Supply 0.17 0.24 0.25 0.28 0.38 0.31 0.26 0.30 0.26 0.21 0.33 0.29 0.25 0.30 0.31 0.31 0.21 -0.04 0.18 0.19 Construction 0.59 0.20 0.90 0.88 -0.35 0.68 0.67 0.03 -0.52 1.35 0.80 1.15 0.08 0.76 1.24 0.66 -0.08 -3.29 -1.00 0.06 -0.48 3.69 1.64 0.75 -0.99 4.32 1.94 1.28 -0.53 3.93 2.32 1.02 0.45 4.17 2.06 2.76 -3.04 -7.21 -2.30 1.70 Wholesale and retail trade -0.03 2.93 1.21 0.33 -0.61 3.95 1.64 0.90 -0.23 2.98 2.14 0.61 0.40 3.29 1.59 2.12 -1.85 -4.87 -2.16 1.48 Hotel -0.14 0.21 0.17 0.09 -0.14 0.09 0.21 0.11 -0.10 0.29 0.18 0.10 -0.11 0.11 0.18 0.28 -0.31 -0.53 -0.02 0.02 Restaurant -0.31 0.54 0.27 0.34 -0.24 0.27 0.08 0.27 -0.20 0.66 0.00 0.30 0.16 0.78 0.29 0.35 -0.88 -1.81 -0.12 0.20 2.10 1.87 1.11 0.95 0.32 1.81 0.72 1.05 0.53 2.05 0.90 1.17 0.63 2.44 0.47 1.06 -0.53 -2.91 -0.19 1.00 -0.20 1.13 0.49 0.52 -0.17 1.10 0.36 0.68 -0.02 1.94 0.40 1.70 0.30 2.00 0.39 0.78 -0.57 -2.56 -0.07 0.93 2.30 0.74 0.62 0.43 0.49 0.71 0.36 0.36 0.55 0.12 0.50 0.62 0.33 0.45 0.09 0.28 0.04 -0.35 -0.12 0.07 Trade, Hotel and Restaurant Transport & Communication Transport Communication Financial, real estate and business services 1.77 2.58 2.45 2.47 2.31 3.11 3.18 2.91 2.62 3.73 3.04 3.06 1.93 3.01 2.99 3.01 1.13 -2.69 0.26 1.77 Bank 1.39 2.00 1.77 1.47 2.19 2.17 2.15 1.95 1.70 2.48 1.85 1.84 1.61 2.32 2.30 2.45 1.45 -0.49 1.19 1.45 Non bank financial institutions 0.21 0.13 0.17 0.13 0.17 0.28 0.13 0.21 0.08 0.34 0.31 0.15 0.23 0.30 0.27 0.23 0.14 -0.18 0.06 0.18 Services allied to financial 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.01 -0.03 0.00 Real Estate -0.21 0.14 0.14 0.24 -0.33 0.15 0.40 0.29 0.43 0.47 0.61 0.31 0.06 0.00 0.28 0.11 -0.21 -1.13 -0.60 0.19 Business services Services 0.36 2.69 0.29 2.34 0.36 0.61 0.25 0.39 1.39 0.42 1.82 0.24 2.08 0.40 2.21 0.59 -4.49 -0.38 -0.40 -0.07 2.13 0.20 2.51 -0.87 1.49 0.36 2.52 -0.27 3.87 0.45 3.28 0.11 2.26 0.48 3.78 0.00 3.58 0.48 3.38 5.80 18.40 13.20 3.13 4.80 17.36 14.32 7.40 8.23 20.89 14.23 6.19 8.65 19.17 13.39 7.79 -5.56 -35.75 -5.97 2.21 TOTAL 0.01 0.86 *) Expectation Tabel 2 Production Capacity Utilisation (Percentage) 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 SECTOR I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III 78.21 77.12 77.63 75.65 74.84 77.01 74.48 71.42 77.04 77.10 75.06 74.87 77.15 76.91 73.51 73.11 74.78 67.29 68.62 Farm Food Crops 82.39 82.94 79.48 79.48 76.81 81.66 77.00 71.25 81.04 78.20 74.51 74.29 77.57 78.52 73.64 71.66 74.59 67.06 72.51 Non-food Crops 75.12 74.27 73.09 73.09 78.51 77.41 74.10 69.55 80.13 80.50 76.32 78.41 78.37 81.01 75.14 73.31 78.65 70.07 68.32 Livestock & Products 86.81 82.29 80.11 76.50 72.41 73.97 76.75 77.28 77.28 81.47 81.08 77.05 79.66 80.76 78.03 77.91 79.71 73.76 72.35 Forestry 78.57 75.26 78.83 78.83 78.31 76.00 71.21 75.58 75.58 73.57 71.67 71.61 75.53 71.90 68.46 71.02 69.68 59.15 62.71 Fishery 68.16 70.85 76.63 70.37 71.08 76.02 73.34 63.41 71.15 71.73 71.71 Mining and quarrying 69.56 78.03 77.08 73.06 74.52 75.04 73.73 74.25 73.71 75.04 70.25 73.00 69.96 74.61 71.41 72.34 74.87 72.31 73.98 71.67 70.88 71.28 71.81 66.39 65.98 67.20 70.49 Manufacturing Industry 71.23 70.33 73.15 74.59 74.02 75.65 74.53 73.37 73.39 75.67 73.91 74.63 75.93 76.22 74.70 74.59 71.79 61.83 67.38 Food, beverages and tobacco 75.92 77.43 75.30 76.58 75.15 76.84 74.13 73.64 73.48 76.64 73.14 76.97 71.64 73.16 75.48 75.70 65.57 64.20 68.49 Textile, leather products ang footwear 78.51 79.84 75.50 79.81 78.30 78.68 78.66 76.65 77.27 81.38 83.11 78.72 83.23 82.58 84.93 80.26 80.94 74.68 72.48 Wood products & other wood products 70.47 74.24 73.34 76.61 74.05 77.49 75.36 76.76 76.77 76.32 72.43 73.14 73.13 73.65 70.23 70.79 71.14 57.11 62.48 Paper and printing 72.58 80.06 72.97 72.97 69.37 75.74 74.97 78.79 79.33 75.00 74.91 76.70 77.59 73.51 74.22 70.69 71.71 58.10 69.10 Fertilizers, chemicals and rubber products 73.32 72.83 77.81 77.81 75.84 74.30 75.63 75.59 75.72 78.58 75.78 75.47 74.28 76.49 73.39 72.23 69.87 69.25 68.69 Cement and non metalic mineral products 75.21 77.50 77.11 69.90 73.26 73.17 73.50 70.06 70.06 71.25 75.51 75.02 75.82 75.16 72.00 74.40 71.07 57.56 65.50 Iron and basic steel 64.59 65.53 62.55 69.43 68.87 73.79 75.16 69.51 69.92 63.13 63.77 60.55 64.85 78.04 73.28 71.78 64.33 58.15 57.99 Transport equipment, machinery & apparatus 65.52 68.78 68.42 71.55 76.04 74.00 69.67 65.90 65.07 82.64 67.00 73.17 71.07 75.00 73.19 71.05 71.22 58.97 70.33 Other manufacturing products 76.18 77.12 75.31 76.62 75.34 76.86 73.69 72.67 72.85 76.09 79.55 82.56 76.98 81.81 83.70 80.53 81.21 81.14 80.96 85.77 82.12 77.69 79.91 78.39 80.71 75.60 83.98 81.97 81.28 79.50 79.00 79.06 80.25 77.99 58.44 82.04 71.40 80.59 75.75 77.01 76.21 76.28 76.92 77.06 75.99 75.05 76.27 78.40 75.33 75.18 76.10 77.18 75.42 74.41 74.09 69.28 71.77 Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry, & Fishery Electricity, Gas and Water Supply TOTAL Business Survey 14
  15. Tabel 3 Indicator of Financial Condition and Access to Financing (Net Balance - NB) 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 INDICATORS I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III Financial condition over past three months: - Liquidity Better 39.34 40.89 38.94 40.89 41.19 41.75 41.70 41.71 39.29 42.38 32.48 34.83 32.51 35.28 31.16 29.30 24.67 11.43 17.73 Same 56.07 55.87 57.25 55.56 53.37 54.19 54.46 54.20 56.09 53.74 62.85 60.93 61.66 60.02 63.15 65.58 65.61 59.02 61.71 Worse 4.59 3.24 3.80 3.55 5.44 4.06 3.84 4.09 4.62 3.88 4.67 4.24 5.83 4.70 5.69 5.12 9.72 29.56 20.56 34.75 37.66 35.14 37.35 35.75 37.69 37.86 37.62 34.67 38.51 27.80 30.59 26.68 30.59 25.47 24.17 14.94 -18.13 -2.82 Better 36.74 41.96 40.19 40.65 42.86 44.11 44.32 45.25 41.35 41.64 31.95 34.03 31.29 33.15 30.18 29.28 23.82 10.57 17.18 Same 58.40 55.04 56.18 56.05 52.41 53.03 52.77 51.66 54.09 53.73 62.92 60.47 61.16 61.12 63.05 64.69 63.88 53.29 59.29 Worse 4.86 3.00 3.64 3.30 4.73 2.86 2.91 3.09 4.56 4.63 5.14 5.50 7.56 5.74 6.77 6.03 12.30 36.14 23.52 31.88 38.96 36.55 37.35 38.13 41.25 41.41 42.16 36.79 37.01 26.81 28.53 23.73 27.41 23.41 23.24 11.53 -25.56 -6.34 Easy 24.21 22.51 21.56 21.61 23.58 19.53 19.83 17.56 20.58 11.21 9.88 9.46 10.97 11.29 9.03 8.76 9.30 4.72 6.44 Normal 58.35 63.18 65.34 63.86 63.13 68.35 69.06 69.18 67.28 83.91 86.13 87.34 84.10 84.30 86.74 87.17 85.57 81.41 81.16 Tight 17.44 14.31 13.10 14.53 13.28 12.12 11.11 13.26 12.14 4.87 3.99 3.20 4.92 4.41 4.23 4.07 5.13 13.86 12.40 6.77 8.20 8.45 7.07 10.30 7.41 8.72 4.30 8.45 6.34 5.89 6.26 6.05 6.89 4.80 4.69 4.17 -9.14 -5.96 IV I Net Balance (% Good - % Bad) - Rentability Net Balance (% Good - % Bad) Access to credit over past three months: Net Balance (% Easy - % Tight) Tabel 4 Labour Utilisation (Weighted Net Balance – WNB) SECTOR 2016 2017 I II III Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry, & Fishery Farm Food Crops Non-food Crops Livestock & Products Forestry Fishery Mining and quarrying 0.90 -0.05 -0.12 0.19 0.53 0.35 0.25 0.48 0.45 -0.14 -0.04 0.00 0.21 -0.86 -0.31 0.00 -0.13 -0.07 -0.07 -0.04 -1.12 Manufacturing Industry Food, beverages and tobacco Textile, leather products ang footwear Wood products & other wood products Paper and printing Fertilizers, chemicals and rubber products Cement and non metalic mineral products Iron and basic steel Transport equipment, machinery & apparatus Other manufacturing products Electricity, Gas and Water Supply -1.95 -0.07 -0.52 -0.15 0.00 -0.06 0.04 -0.07 -1.19 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 0.76 -0.03 -0.05 0.09 0.05 -0.04 -0.05 -0.73 -0.02 0.13 Construction Trade, Hotel and Restaurant 0.23 -0.55 Wholesale and retail trade Hotel Restaurant Transport & Communication Transport Communication Financial, real estate and business services Bank Non bank financial institutions Services allied to financial Real Estate Business services Services TOTAL IV 2018 II 2019 I II III III -0.67 -0.08 -0.34 -0.07 -0.14 -0.04 -1.76 0.06 0.56 -0.24 0.00 -0.31 0.06 0.15 0.09 0.19 -0.09 0.08 -0.13 0.04 -0.13 -0.35 0.04 0.00 -0.05 -0.29 -0.04 0.91 -0.16 -0.09 0.17 0.08 -0.20 -0.13 -0.89 0.81 0.50 0.14 0.08 0.17 -0.07 -0.02 0.87 0.45 0.10 0.04 0.05 0.23 0.30 0.80 0.45 0.21 0.11 0.02 0.00 0.29 -1.35 -0.41 -0.29 -0.23 -0.23 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.19 0.00 0.02 -0.94 0.00 -0.29 -0.23 -0.23 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.19 0.00 0.07 -0.49 -0.13 -0.32 -0.09 -0.16 0.00 -0.02 0.04 0.18 0.00 0.06 0.90 0.19 0.04 -0.09 0.14 -0.04 0.05 0.07 0.53 0.02 0.09 -0.87 -0.59 -0.22 -0.09 0.06 0.09 -0.02 0.11 -0.19 0.00 0.10 -1.19 -0.33 -0.18 -0.07 -0.15 0.30 0.04 -0.09 -0.71 -0.01 0.11 -1.73 -0.84 0.04 -0.04 -0.14 0.22 -0.02 0.02 -0.96 -0.01 0.06 -0.02 0.42 0.30 -0.05 -0.13 -0.09 0.00 0.08 -0.55 -0.01 0.03 0.16 0.86 0.35 -0.65 0.22 0.08 -0.42 -0.08 0.00 0.87 0.09 -0.76 0.03 0.33 -0.36 -0.72 -0.48 -0.07 0.00 0.33 0.23 0.10 0.97 0.81 -0.05 0.10 0.04 -0.05 0.08 0.99 -0.29 -0.07 -0.29 0.18 0.11 0.07 0.38 0.21 -0.02 -0.11 0.22 0.27 -0.05 0.68 -0.08 -0.05 0.06 0.03 0.09 -0.06 1.18 0.95 -0.08 0.00 0.16 0.12 0.04 0.87 -0.69 -0.06 0.00 -0.05 -0.01 -0.05 0.72 0.25 -0.01 0.08 -0.12 -0.06 -0.06 0.47 1.08 0.00 0.00 -0.08 -0.02 1.77 0.82 -0.03 0.01 0.07 0.12 0.54 0.13 -0.01 0.01 0.00 0.26 0.64 0.38 0.03 0.01 0.16 0.10 0.18 1.32 0.07 0.01 -0.16 -0.06 0.76 0.67 0.03 0.01 0.08 0.08 1.38 0.82 0.07 0.01 -0.17 0.00 0.33 1.94 2.32 -1.85 1.74 1.25 4.23 0.13 IV 2020 I II III 0.08 0.03 -0.03 0.09 -0.10 0.09 0.29 0.18 0.13 0.00 0.10 -0.02 -0.03 0.44 0.17 0.14 0.03 0.03 -0.03 0.00 0.26 0.46 0.18 0.19 -0.03 0.05 0.07 0.18 0.05 -0.06 0.00 0.04 0.13 -0.06 0.02 -0.03 0.00 0.00 -0.02 -0.65 0.03 -0.08 -0.04 -0.04 -0.11 -0.02 -0.04 -0.34 -0.01 -0.06 0.70 0.21 -0.11 0.02 0.04 0.25 -0.02 -0.08 0.40 -0.01 0.01 0.29 0.41 0.10 -0.06 0.04 0.00 -0.06 -0.04 -0.11 0.01 -0.09 0.33 1.54 0.11 0.02 0.19 0.04 0.15 0.04 -0.43 -0.05 -0.24 -0.17 0.02 -0.20 0.53 1.30 0.04 0.20 0.17 0.17 0.00 0.59 0.19 -0.01 -0.16 0.30 0.40 -0.10 0.71 0.78 0.01 -0.04 0.25 0.22 0.03 0.76 0.32 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.55 0.39 0.11 0.00 -0.07 0.10 0.73 0.54 0.07 0.00 -0.07 0.04 0.93 0.18 0.15 0.01 0.31 0.07 1.19 0.51 0.07 0.00 0.15 0.02 1.03 -0.89 -0.88 4.73 3.44 1.94 I II III -0.01 0.14 -0.03 0.00 -0.09 -0.03 0.32 -0.30 0.07 -0.01 -0.05 -0.13 -0.17 0.20 -1.42 -0.25 -0.61 -0.05 -0.26 -0.26 -0.88 -0.75 -0.10 -0.35 -0.07 -0.20 -0.04 -3.61 -0.31 0.00 -0.04 -0.06 -0.21 0.00 -4.78 -0.95 -0.06 -0.22 -0.07 -0.14 0.20 -0.07 -0.03 -0.59 0.04 -0.06 -1.24 -0.63 -0.08 -0.12 -0.18 -0.23 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.02 -0.04 -1.75 0.31 -0.56 -0.11 0.08 -0.11 -0.16 -0.15 -1.06 0.00 -0.10 -7.97 -1.97 -1.83 -0.66 -0.65 -0.82 -0.16 -0.26 -1.56 -0.05 -0.17 -4.49 -0.96 -0.93 -0.35 -0.19 -0.76 -0.08 -0.09 -1.13 -0.01 -0.18 -2.76 -0.62 -0.63 -0.17 -0.30 -0.34 -0.10 -0.10 -0.48 -0.02 0.00 0.16 0.04 0.53 0.04 0.06 0.45 -0.10 0.09 -1.75 -4.72 -1.07 -3.30 -0.30 -0.80 0.07 -0.06 0.04 -0.06 0.12 -0.17 0.42 -0.13 0.00 0.17 0.20 0.22 -0.01 0.69 0.17 -0.03 -0.10 0.01 0.13 -0.12 0.30 0.23 0.04 0.17 0.13 0.13 0.00 0.30 0.37 -0.11 -0.17 -0.11 -0.06 -0.05 0.81 -3.20 -0.42 -1.10 -1.42 -1.14 -0.28 -1.29 -2.33 -0.26 -0.71 -1.01 -0.76 -0.25 -1.20 -0.60 -0.10 -0.10 -0.47 -0.32 -0.15 -0.06 0.04 0.12 0.00 0.19 0.06 0.49 0.42 0.12 0.01 0.06 0.08 0.75 0.41 0.08 0.01 -0.14 -0.06 0.89 0.47 0.09 0.01 -0.13 -0.12 0.98 0.63 0.11 0.01 -0.03 0.09 0.14 -0.30 -0.05 0.00 -0.52 -0.41 -2.75 -0.36 -0.02 -0.01 -0.36 -0.45 -0.84 0.18 0.05 0.00 -0.17 -0.12 -0.09 1.40 0.95 - 1.13 - 22.35 - 16.47 - 2.37 2.47 IV *) Expectation Business Survey 15 IV* 9.56
  16. Tabel 5 Selling Price (Weighted Net Balance – WNB) 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 SECTOR Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry, & Fishery Farm Food Crops Non-food Crops Livestock & Products Forestry Fishery Mining and quarrying Manufacturing Industry Food, beverages and tobacco Textile, leather products ang footwear Wood products & other wood products Paper and printing Fertilizers, chemicals and rubber products Cement and non metalic mineral products Iron and basic steel Transport equipment, machinery & apparatus Other manufacturing products Electricity, Gas and Water Supply Construction Trade, Hotel and Restaurant Wholesale and retail trade Hotel Restaurant Transport & Communication Transport Communication Financial, real estate and business services Bank Non bank financial institutions Services allied to financial Real Estate Business services Services TOTAL I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III 2.19 1.55 0.02 0.14 0.09 0.39 0.54 2.95 1.57 0.52 0.33 -0.07 0.59 1.59 2.63 1.73 0.07 0.35 0.14 0.34 1.26 2.61 1.48 0.25 0.24 0.27 0.37 2.51 1.26 -0.05 0.51 -0.26 0.00 1.06 -1.63 0.66 0.00 0.38 0.00 0.20 0.09 0.39 2.25 1.04 0.52 0.24 -0.07 0.52 2.13 3.23 1.86 0.31 0.68 0.00 0.39 3.34 4.28 2.56 0.41 0.46 0.33 0.52 1.09 3.53 0.50 0.54 1.11 0.43 0.95 0.25 2.81 1.43 0.04 0.59 0.10 0.65 0.22 4.14 2.40 -0.19 0.77 0.34 0.82 0.18 1.84 0.81 0.51 0.02 0.18 0.31 0.00 2.00 0.82 -0.09 0.73 0.18 0.35 0.34 1.75 0.96 0.20 0.35 -0.13 0.37 -0.05 4.19 1.13 0.62 0.18 0.66 0.39 0.07 -0.05 1.19 0.02 0.07 1.37 3.35 1.67 0.20 0.28 0.42 0.58 0.00 0.02 0.18 0.01 0.17 0.82 1.66 0.74 0.29 0.16 0.14 0.41 0.08 0.02 -0.19 0.01 0.12 1.67 1.80 0.62 0.07 0.24 0.00 0.73 -0.02 -0.07 0.22 0.01 0.26 0.71 3.17 1.63 0.46 0.09 0.27 0.98 0.02 0.15 0.18 0.04 0.29 0.95 1.29 1.29 0.44 0.24 0.56 -0.09 0.11 0.10 0.18 0.02 0.30 1.04 2.09 0.70 0.37 0.14 0.14 0.34 0.09 0.11 0.18 0.02 0.22 0.78 2.05 0.70 0.07 0.22 0.10 0.39 0.00 0.20 0.35 0.02 0.22 0.79 4.16 1.48 0.54 0.15 0.65 0.49 0.08 0.28 0.48 0.02 0.15 1.04 5.36 1.64 0.51 0.30 0.31 0.76 0.14 0.03 1.65 0.02 0.19 1.72 4.16 0.70 0.66 0.29 0.48 0.58 0.05 0.10 1.28 0.03 0.15 1.37 3.45 0.91 0.61 0.18 0.39 0.32 0.12 0.04 0.85 0.03 0.16 1.44 3.84 1.41 0.54 0.14 0.53 0.62 0.06 0.13 0.62 0.02 0.15 1.42 3.77 1.24 0.80 0.11 0.23 0.49 0.08 0.02 0.80 -0.01 0.13 1.19 4.20 3.51 0.02 0.67 0.30 0.13 0.17 0.08 -0.43 0.03 0.00 0.41 0.07 1.53 3.42 2.98 0.01 0.42 0.59 0.45 0.14 -1.27 -1.27 -0.03 0.00 0.07 -0.04 1.19 3.17 2.80 0.04 0.33 0.50 0.40 0.10 -0.48 -0.95 -0.02 0.01 0.29 0.19 1.37 2.71 2.35 0.04 0.32 0.44 0.36 0.08 -0.13 -0.91 0.00 0.00 0.55 0.22 0.43 4.71 4.37 0.00 0.33 0.49 0.26 0.23 -0.04 -0.68 -0.03 0.00 0.49 0.17 0.82 2.97 2.70 -0.01 0.27 0.78 0.63 0.16 0.17 -0.30 -0.02 0.00 0.23 0.26 0.78 2.83 2.57 0.07 0.20 0.34 0.28 0.06 0.04 -0.46 -0.02 0.00 0.32 0.21 1.34 3.26 2.94 0.03 0.28 0.56 0.37 0.18 -0.53 -0.85 0.00 0.00 0.21 0.10 0.53 4.19 3.80 0.01 0.38 0.30 0.23 0.07 0.13 -0.70 0.05 0.01 0.50 0.27 0.56 5.14 4.55 0.11 0.48 1.31 1.15 0.16 0.90 0.22 0.04 -0.01 0.27 0.39 1.22 4.79 4.43 0.11 0.25 1.09 0.82 0.27 1.63 0.79 0.08 0.00 0.52 0.24 2.21 4.02 3.72 0.08 0.22 0.92 0.69 0.23 2.11 1.07 0.09 0.01 0.57 0.38 0.99 4.40 3.76 0.06 0.58 0.97 0.90 0.07 1.74 0.65 0.12 0.00 0.61 0.36 0.97 14.48 12.81 11.90 11.35 10.03 9.92 12.03 13.45 15.91 19.61 18.43 17.41 15.34 IV I II 3.22 1.76 0.60 0.46 0.05 0.37 1.53 2.11 1.39 0.28 0.34 0.17 -0.07 -0.18 -1.56 0.81 -0.93 -0.30 -0.40 -0.73 -1.33 III 0.42 0.51 -0.14 -0.02 -0.07 0.14 2.17 IV* 1.84 1.38 0.00 0.38 0.04 0.05 -4.71 3.35 0.75 0.22 0.27 0.24 0.23 0.15 0.03 1.38 0.07 0.06 1.47 2.40 0.97 0.27 0.06 0.13 0.05 0.07 0.07 0.74 0.04 0.14 1.21 2.47 1.47 0.38 0.25 0.00 -0.11 0.02 0.03 0.35 0.07 0.13 0.77 -2.14 -0.98 -0.25 -0.14 0.09 -0.15 -0.05 -0.06 -0.60 -0.01 -0.02 -0.83 0.27 0.62 -0.11 -0.17 0.09 0.15 -0.02 -0.01 -0.28 -0.01 0.03 -0.38 1.24 0.76 -0.20 -0.15 0.15 0.12 0.06 -0.01 0.48 0.03 0.14 0.54 4.01 3.46 0.04 0.50 1.34 1.13 0.21 1.94 1.01 0.07 0.01 0.57 0.28 1.76 3.77 3.34 0.09 0.35 0.72 0.45 0.27 0.95 0.41 0.02 0.00 0.50 0.02 1.14 2.97 2.62 0.07 0.28 1.03 0.78 0.24 0.77 0.47 0.04 0.00 0.22 0.05 1.60 4.41 4.23 0.00 0.19 0.59 0.31 0.29 0.68 0.27 0.01 0.00 0.28 0.11 1.64 0.21 0.68 -0.18 -0.30 0.03 0.07 -0.04 -1.10 -0.75 -0.09 -0.01 0.04 -0.29 -0.42 0.49 0.54 -0.07 0.02 0.20 0.17 0.03 -0.61 -0.29 0.01 -0.01 -0.07 -0.24 0.17 0.99 0.95 0.00 0.04 0.35 0.36 -0.02 -0.29 -0.36 0.05 -0.01 0.12 -0.09 0.26 16.48 13.15 14.88 12.63 -7.16 2.76 0.36 *) Expectation Tabel 6 Annual Inflation Expectations (% of respondents) EXPECTATION FOR 2017 SECTOR Agriculture, livestock, forestry and fisheries Mining and Quarrying Manufacturing Industry Utilities (electricity, gas and water) Construction Trade, hotels and restaurants Transport and Communication Financial, real estate and corporate services Services TOTAL EXPECTATION FOR 2018 EXPECTATION FOR 2020 Q2-2017 Survey Q3-2017 Survey Q4-2017 Survey Q1-2018 Survey Q2-2018 Survey Q3-2018 Survey Q4-2018 Survey Q1-2019 Survey Q2-2019 Survey Q3-2019 Survey Q4-2019 Survey Q1-2020 Survey Q2-2020 Survey Q3-2020 Survey 3.58 3.63 3.58 3.49 3.50 4.04 3.52 3.97 3.54 3.53 3.91 3.72 4.42 3.70 3.84 3.53 3.15 3.21 3.39 3.49 3.68 3.53 3.48 3.57 3.36 3.51 3.37 3.58 3.48 3.18 3.49 3.56 3.59 3.45 3.47 4.25 3.61 4.06 3.48 3.28 3.23 3.61 3.81 3.44 3.55 3.50 3.54 2.29 3.60 3.32 3.76 3.60 3.58 3.38 3.58 3.33 3.51 3.45 3.33 3.16 3.60 3.46 3.67 3.30 3.33 3.81 3.52 4.14 3.48 3.60 3.69 3.61 3.65 3.55 3.55 3.54 3.56 3.62 3.53 3.42 3.90 3.55 4.01 3.47 3.72 3.88 3.53 3.87 3.67 3.52 3.51 3.50 1.67 3.39 3.43 3.65 3.51 4.62 3.47 3.45 3.70 3.55 3.41 3.56 3.35 3.69 3.63 3.47 3.60 3.51 3.77 3.56 3.84 3.60 3.69 3.55 3.37 3.36 3.19 3.22 3.39 3.55 4.03 3.30 3.50 4.04 3.50 3.94 3.44 3.67 3.83 3.52 3.51 3.70 3.38 3.54 3.51 3.24 3.45 3.44 3.88 3.54 3.96 3.49 3.54 3.62 3.53 3.67 3.51 3.42 4.0 ± 1 Tabel 7 EXPECTATION FOR 2019 Q1-2017 Survey 3.5 ± 1 3.5 ± 1 3±1 Realisation of Investment (Weighted Net Balance – WNB) 2016 2017 2018 2019 SECTOR 2020 I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV* Agriculture, livestock, forestry and fisheries 0.99 1.58 0.51 1.08 0.67 1.15 0.82 0.85 1.47 1.25 0.87 1.31 1.13 1.25 1.28 0.94 0.82 -0.63 -0.57 -0.27 Mining and Quarrying -0.48 1.79 -0.02 0.06 -0.89 1.29 1.94 1.75 0.43 0.29 0.22 0.33 0.57 1.12 0.53 3.39 -2.40 -0.54 4.95 3.70 Manufacturing Industry -0.64 1.00 0.95 2.44 -0.21 1.36 1.31 2.44 2.70 2.16 1.57 2.71 1.79 1.50 0.51 0.46 -0.42 -4.51 -2.88 -1.26 Utilities (electricity, gas and water) 0.12 0.22 0.21 0.20 0.29 0.29 0.24 0.25 0.17 0.25 0.32 0.24 0.16 0.15 0.21 0.24 0.11 -0.13 0.06 0.12 Construction 0.03 0.46 0.83 0.54 0.58 0.49 0.32 0.32 0.22 0.69 0.50 0.53 0.51 0.39 0.56 0.06 0.40 -1.67 -0.89 -0.88 Trade, hotels and restaurants 1.08 1.83 1.42 1.76 1.82 1.88 1.30 1.43 1.11 1.80 1.69 1.82 1.34 1.55 1.46 1.21 0.82 -2.30 -1.18 -0.45 Transport and Communication 0.69 0.78 0.77 0.92 1.15 0.71 0.74 0.60 0.45 0.84 1.00 0.86 0.74 0.62 0.64 0.82 0.48 -1.10 -0.63 0.02 Financial, real estate and corporate services 2.24 1.83 1.90 2.24 1.82 2.28 2.02 2.32 1.81 2.21 1.98 1.79 2.07 1.30 1.63 1.35 1.46 -0.44 -0.04 0.20 Services 2.07 1.34 1.34 1.64 1.99 1.13 1.97 0.73 1.18 2.25 2.49 0.92 1.32 1.82 1.36 1.42 1.35 -1.75 -0.09 0.82 6.10 10.82 7.92 10.88 7.21 10.58 10.66 10.68 9.55 11.73 10.64 10.51 9.62 9.71 8.18 9.89 2.61 -13.06 -1.27 2.01 TOTAL *) Expectation Business Survey 16
  17. Tabel 8 Wages / Salaries (% Net Balance – NB) Semester I-2018 Semester II-2018 Semester I-2019 Semester II-2019 Semester I-2020 Semester II-2020 S E CT O R Increase Stable Decrease Net Balance Increase Stable Decrease Net Balance Increase Stable Decrease Net Balance Increase Stable Decrease Net Balance Increase Stable Decrease Net Balance Increase Stable Decrease Net Balance Agriculture, livestock, forestry and fisheries 35.74 59.50 4.75 30.99 11.88 85.37 2.75 9.12 26.08 72.09 1.83 24.25 13.69 83.76 2.55 11.13 23.72 74.52 1.76 21.96 8.07 87.23 4.71 Mining and Quarrying 36.14 61.45 2.41 33.73 7.94 88.89 3.17 4.76 38.64 60.61 0.76 37.88 21.95 76.42 1.63 21.14 34.44 63.33 2.22 32.22 11.68 76.64 11.68 0.00 Manufacturing Industry 54.24 44.60 1.15 53.09 12.48 85.68 1.84 10.65 52.06 45.94 2.00 50.06 15.91 83.54 0.55 15.36 52.18 45.57 2.25 49.93 8.75 82.28 8.97 -0.22 Utilities (electricity, gas and water) 39.39 57.58 3.03 36.36 17.89 82.11 0.00 17.89 37.78 62.22 0.00 37.78 14.74 85.26 0.00 14.74 56.45 38.71 4.84 51.61 18.93 80.26 0.81 Construction 38.67 60.44 0.89 37.78 14.62 84.23 1.15 13.46 37.31 60.00 2.69 34.62 19.35 78.23 2.42 16.94 29.41 69.12 1.47 27.94 7.92 76.90 15.18 -7.26 Trade, hotels and restaurants 54.95 43.96 1.09 53.86 14.44 84.30 1.26 13.17 48.92 49.61 1.47 47.45 16.84 82.65 0.51 16.32 47.90 49.81 2.29 45.60 7.44 70.51 22.04 -14.60 Transport and Communication 43.02 54.34 2.64 40.38 12.29 87.71 0.00 12.29 43.05 56.27 0.68 42.37 16.73 81.14 2.14 14.59 39.86 57.73 2.41 37.46 10.92 74.09 14.99 -4.08 Financial, real estate and corporate services 52.17 47.16 0.67 51.51 18.70 80.45 0.85 17.85 46.63 52.25 1.12 45.51 21.22 75.07 3.71 17.51 42.49 54.04 3.46 39.03 12.17 78.36 9.47 Services 37.25 62.75 0.00 37.25 16.59 82.95 0.46 16.13 37.61 61.97 0.43 37.18 20.45 78.64 0.91 19.55 31.03 67.67 1.29 29.74 7.02 80.03 12.95 -5.93 47.36 50.88 1.76 45.60 13.84 84.70 1.46 12.38 43.16 55.33 1.50 41.66 17.13 81.39 1.47 15.69 41.05 56.75 2.20 38.85 9.31 79.33 11.36 -2.05 TOTAL Tabel 9 3.36 18.13 2.70 Average Wages / Salaries (IDR per Month) Semester I-2018 SECTOR Below Foreman /Supervisor Level Foreman /Supervisor Semester II-2018 Below Foreman /Supervisor Level Foreman /Supervisor Semester I-2019 Below Foreman /Supervisor Level Foreman /Supervisor Semester II-2019 Below Foreman /Supervisor Level Foreman /Supervisor Semester I-2020 Below Foreman /Supervisor Level Foreman /Supervisor Semester II-2020 Below Foreman /Supervisor Level Foreman /Supervisor Agriculture, livestock, forestry and fisheries 2,035,367 2,805,441 1,969,837 2,771,687 2,014,795 2,834,274 1,969,699 2,826,864 2,173,163 3,026,566 2,176,912 3,044,534 Mining and Quarrying 3,306,181 5,152,048 2,652,438 4,419,248 3,020,920 4,685,556 2,579,034 4,275,262 5,288,472 8,960,387 3,059,752 5,102,858 Manufacturing Industry 2,752,582 4,025,481 2,557,636 3,723,138 2,851,124 4,145,062 2,770,708 4,132,991 3,103,828 4,734,729 2,893,986 4,054,565 Utilities (electricity, gas and water) 2,947,363 4,716,677 3,043,098 5,118,551 3,069,803 4,885,489 3,266,610 5,062,764 3,394,019 4,961,191 3,833,844 6,202,314 Construction 2,507,087 3,640,420 2,493,840 3,700,651 2,811,674 4,266,954 2,790,300 4,188,795 2,931,216 4,057,787 2,964,098 4,272,809 Trade, hotels and restaurants 2,301,723 3,281,008 2,289,920 3,526,232 2,864,575 4,529,624 2,270,978 3,285,647 2,528,587 3,533,938 2,466,715 3,587,010 Transport and Communication 2,998,929 5,593,798 3,032,481 4,852,238 2,287,189 3,430,871 2,890,754 4,424,540 2,980,210 4,860,400 3,011,576 4,791,680 Financial, real estate and corporate services 3,349,808 5,627,667 3,697,246 5,987,876 3,088,657 5,364,806 2,906,431 4,773,277 3,136,219 5,008,632 3,202,401 5,320,932 Services 2,667,754 4,060,097 2,219,051 3,371,369 2,267,803 3,710,965 2,364,478 3,636,506 2,467,449 4,011,900 2,613,238 4,448,940 2,762,977 4,322,515 2,661,727 4,163,443 2,697,393 4,205,956 2,645,444 4,067,405 3,111,462 4,795,059 2,913,614 4,536,183 TOTAL Tabel 10 Business Plan on Wages/Salaries in Semester I-2020 (%) Plan to Raise Wages/Salaries SECTOR Besar Kenaikan Upah Yes No Agriculture, livestock, forestry and fisheries 18.20 81.80 5.38 Mining and Quarrying 22.63 77.37 6.06 Manufacturing Industry 24.40 75.60 6.39 Utilities (electricity, gas and water) 18.52 81.48 6.38 Construction 16.50 83.50 6.36 Trade, hotels and restaurants 22.71 77.29 6.11 Transport and Communication 23.15 76.85 4.15 Financial, real estate and corporate services 26.32 73.68 5.65 Services 19.84 80.16 6.72 22.13 77.87 5.91 TOTAL Business Survey 17
  18. Tabel 11 Profit Margin (%) Semester I-2018 SECTOR Semester I-2018 Semester I-2019 Semester II-2019 Semester I-2020 Semester I-2020 Expected Margin Required Minimum Level Margin Expected Margin Required Minimum Level Margin Expected Margin Required Minimum Level Margin Expected Margin Required Minimum Level Margin Expected Margin Required Minimum Level Margin Expected Margin Required Minimum Level Margin Agriculture, livestock, forestry and fisheries 19.08% 11.95% 18.48% 12.16% 17.09% 13.22% 11.41% 14.56% 21.50% 16.69% 19.12% 14.15% Mining and Quarrying 15.62% 9.62% 16.50% 14.29% 18.54% 15.08% 15.13% 11.73% 13.86% 12.54% 14.59% 11.45% Manufacturing Industry 15.36% 10.62% 14.79% 9.99% 13.03% 10.35% 12.84% 11.56% 15.14% 11.80% 14.12% 11.89% Utilities (electricity, gas and water) 14.96% 11.29% 14.98% 9.40% 15.16% 11.54% 12.10% 4.97% 15.01% 12.01% 11.80% 1.02% Construction 16.21% 11.13% 18.28% 12.34% 15.45% 11.59% 16.64% 12.85% 16.12% 11.73% 15.83% 12.98% Trade, hotels and restaurants 17.07% 12.10% 17.38% 11.54% 16.60% 12.35% 16.54% 12.26% 15.60% 11.47% 13.26% 11.57% Transport and Communication 17.43% 11.06% 17.11% 11.60% 14.40% 9.84% 16.66% 11.80% 17.08% 12.60% 13.69% 10.89% Financial, real estate and corporate services 15.17% 9.80% 18.66% 12.00% 18.81% 12.29% 17.94% 13.15% 16.24% 11.36% 14.38% Services 15.85% 10.62% 14.50% 9.61% 17.40% 9.60% 14.83% 10.21% 16.38% 11.45% 12.89% 10.07% 16.31% 10.91% 16.74% 11.44% 16.28% 11.76% 14.90% 11.45% 16.33% 12.40% 14.41% 10.75% TOTAL Tabel 12 12.73% Prompt Manufacturing Index - Bank Indonesia (% Indeks) Komponen Periode 2016 PMI - BI Volume Produksi Volume Pesanan Kecepatan Penerimaan Barang Input I 47.20 45.21 47.35 49.04 46.61 46.69 Volume Persediaan Barang Jadi Jumlah Tenaga Kerja II 59.08 50.22 48.39 52.42 50.22 52.38 III 52.39 47.01 48.28 48.95 47.01 48.74 IV 55.12 51.04 48.64 48.08 48.56 50.91 I 47.70 48.17 48.31 49.16 48.62 47.93 II 57.53 48.23 49.41 50.74 51.70 51.68 III 54.78 49.79 49.07 48.64 48.29 50.51 IV 49.36 48.94 48.73 48.30 47.95 48.75 I 52.71 50.50 48.57 50.00 47.64 50.14 2017 2018 II 54.39 54.57 46.57 53.15 50.67 52.40 III 55.18 53.37 45.37 54.10 50.00 52.02 IV 55.42 56.17 44.58 54.03 48.92 52.58 I 53.49 54.04 49.94 53.29 51.22 52.65 II 54.19 54.88 49.89 51.13 50.28 52.66 III 53.64 53.48 49.50 54.27 48.68 52.04 IV 53.42 53.27 49.71 52.56 47.23 51.50 I 43.10 47.28 43.22 46.69 47.63 45.64 2019 2020 II 25.36 28.95 26.16 32.28 31.84 28.55 III 45.35 50.55 38.75 43.87 41.03 44.91 IV* 47.81 47.00 46.44 53.38 44.00 47.16 *Expectation Business Survey 18
  19. METHODOLOGI The Business Survey has been conducted quarterly since the first quarter of 1993 . In Quarter III-2020, the Survey was extended to 4,013 enterprises spread throughout all regions of the Indonesian archipelago, selected using purposive sampling. Statistically, the respondents have a sampling error of 2% at a 5% level of significance. Data is collated through respondent questionnaires either by hardcopy or by online on BI website. The data is calculated using the net balance method, namely by calculating the difference between the percentage of respondents whose answers increased, those whose answers decreased and those whose answers remained the same. In the case of calculating the net balance of business activity, selling price and labour utilization are calculated using the net weighted balance method. The weight reflected the contribution of each sector to GDP. Since Quarter I-2014, the Survey has been conducted in the last month of the current quarter (one month earlier than usual). In addition, the questionnaire improvement and integrated webbased application both were developed. 19 Business Survey