GCC Equity Market Monitor - 5 April

Transcription

1. GBCM Morning Briefing GBCM  Morning Briefing Contents GCC Equity Markets Monitor MSM Statistics and Indicators MSM Statistics and Indicators MENA, Global markets, Benchmark Indices and Currencies Performance Global Commodities and Petrochemicals Oman News MSM Market Watch Regional News Coverage g g April 5, 2017 4/5/2017
2. GCC  ‐ Equity Market Monitor 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% ‐5.0% 5 0% Daily Return YTD Return MTD Return Oman Saudi UAE (DFM) UAE (ADX) Kuwait ‐ PI 0.5% ‐2.8% 1.3% 0.3% ‐3.1% ‐0.2% 0.6% 0.8% 2.3% 1.8% 0.1% 2.4% 0.2% 22.1% ‐0.2% Source: Respective Stock Markets, Bloomberg, GBCM Research GBCM Morning Briefing 2 Kuwait  ‐ Wtd 0.3% 9.5% 0.7% Qatar Bahrain 0.5% ‐0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 10.5% ‐0.5%
3. MSM  ‐ Net Buy/(Sell) Position Top 5 ‐ Turnover Market Share – Previous Day Previous Day Turnover: RO 4.388 million (c. US$ 11.4 million) Value Leaders Sector Turnover (RO) Market Share Figures In RO Al Anwar Holding Invs/Hldg 994,761 22.7% BUY SELL NET 3,732,208 3,732,208  3,739,304 3,739,304  (7,096) Anwar Ceramic Tiles Anwar Ceramic Tiles Industry 446 115 446,115 10 2% 10.2% GCC 431,820  322,722  109,098  Nat. Bank Of Oman Banking 409,201 9.3% Arabs 33,263  28,333  4,930  Al Madina Takaful Insurance 296,959 6.8% OTHERS 190,354  297,286  (106,932) Banking 264,784 6.0% OMANIS Bank Nizwa MSM ‐ Lead Indicators Value  Indicators ** Mkt. Cap (In RO 000s) Daily Market Performance y PER (X) P/BV (X) Dividend  Yield (%) Indices  Monitor Current Closing Previous  Daily %  MTD %  Closing Chg Chg YTD % Chg MSM 30 6,480,043  10.3 1.1 5.7% MSM 30 5,623.41 5,596.67 0.48% 1.31% ‐2.75% Financial 3,326,650  8.7 0.9 5.0% Financial 8,067.95 7,998.55 0.87% 2.98% 5.16% Industrial 991,822  19.9 1.4 4.8% Industrial 7,782.89 7,807.03 ‐0.31% ‐0.23% 5.07% Services 2,823,652  12.0 1.7 6.5% Services 2,879.18 2,883.29 ‐0.14% ‐0.22% ‐5.87% MSM Shariah 2,680,746  10.6 1.6 6.1% 843.17 846.18 ‐0.36% ‐0.04% ‐2.97% MSM Shariah 4/5/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 3
4. MENA  Markets Performance Index  Global Markets Performance Closing   MENA  % Chg %MTD %YTD   2.1 ‐0.5 0.7 ‐0.6 0.4 ‐0.4 7.5 3.1 1.7 ‐2.9 2.1 13.4 0.3 0.3 1.1 1.4 0.2 1.0 0.7 0.2 ‐0.8 ‐0.5 2.6 5.9 ‐0.8 0.8 8.7 10.1 ‐0.8 Egypt Jordan Tunis  Morocco Palestine Turkey 13,264.8 1.6 2,238.0 0.1 5,580.4 0.6 23,748.2 0.0 541.1 ‐0.1 88,612.6 ‐0.1 MENA Benchmark (S&P/ MSCI) S&P GCC LMC 120.7 0.5 S&P GCC (USD) 98.9 0.5 S&P GCC (40 Index) – Price Return  1,028.9 0.9 S&P GCC (40 Index) – Total Return  1,664.7 0.9 MSCI GCC MSCI GCC 472.8 0.5 MSCI Frontier  542.7 0.4 MSCI Frontier ex GCC 829.4 0.4 MSCI Arabian Index 515.1 0.5 Index  Closing   Americas  % Chg %MTD %YTD   S&P 500 Dow Jones Nasdaq Brazil 2,360.2 20,689.2 5,898.6 65,768.9 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.9 ‐0.1 0.1 ‐0.2 1.2 5.4 4.7 9.6 9.2 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 ‐0.4 ‐0.2 2.5 4.9 7.0 0.2 ‐0.1 00 0.0 1.1 ‐0.3 1.2 ‐0.3 0.5 09 0.9 1.1 ‐0.2 2.0 ‐1.4 10.1 12 3 12.3 5.0 6.3 ‐1.4 %MTD %YTD %YTD  0.2 0.2 ‐0.6 0.7 ‐0.8 ‐0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 ‐0.3 ‐0.8 0.0 ‐1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ‐1.7 1.5 0.3 5.7 0.9 1.2 1.7 0.8 ‐0.2 4.4 5.0 1.1 ‐4.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 Europe FTSE 100 CAC 40 DAX Asia Pacific Nikkei  Hang Seng Sensex Shanghai Korea Russia Global Benchmark Indices Index Closing  % Chg %MTD %YTD  1,850.0 0.1 ‐0.2 5.6 MSCI World ‐Ex MSCI World  Ex USA USA 1,787.7 0.0 ‐0.3 5.7 MSCI Europe‐ USD 1,560.9 0.3 ‐0.6 6.1 965.2 0.0 0.7 11.9 MSCI EM Index Dollar Index USD Vs EURO  USD Vs Canadian Dollar  USD Vs Japanese Yen  USD Vs GBP  USD Vs Swedish Krona USD Vs Swiss Franc  USD Vs Chinese Renminbi USD Vs Hong Kong Dollar  USD Vs Indian Rupee  USD Vs Aus Dollar  USD Vs Indonesia Rupiah  USD Vs Turkish Lira Spot  USD Vs Omani Riyal  USD Vs UAE Dirham  USD Vs Saudi Riyal  USD Vs Kuwait Dinar  USD Vs Qatar Riyal  USD Vs Bahrain Dinar  Fixed Income (Bloomberg/EFFAS Bond Indices)  US 10+ Yr TR 563 2 563.2 ‐0.8 08 03 0.3 22 2.2 Euro Liquid 10+ Yr TR 228.8 0.2 0.4 ‐1.1 0.4 ‐2.1 Commodity (Bloomberg)  Commodity  85.7 0.4 Source: Data taken from Bloomberg GBCM Morning Briefing 18,845.3 24,230.3 29 897 3 29,897.3 3,257.8 2,155.1 1,136.0 Global Currencies Index Global Equity (MSCI) MSCI World – USD , 7,321.8 5,101.1 12,282.3 4 Closing Closing  % Chg % Chg In Comparison with USD 100.510 1.068 1.340 110.620 1.245 9.002 1.002 6.888 7.770 65.070 0.757 13327.000 3.673 0.385 3.673 3.750 0.305 3.641 0.377 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 ‐0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
5. Commodities  Performance Index  Petrochemical Performance Closing   % Chg %MTD %YTD  NYMEX Crude 51.3 0.6 1.5 ‐8.4 ICE Brent Crude 54.5 0.5 1.7 ‐6.8 Crude Oil, Oman  52.8 1.7 1.7 ‐2.7 NYMEX Natural Gas  3.3 ‐0.3 2.9 ‐7.3 172.9 0.4 1.5 ‐7.6 Precious Metals Gold Spot  1,255.5 ‐0.1 0.5 9.0 Silver Spot 18.3 ‐0.3 0.0 14.7 Platinum Spot  961.7 0.1 1.2 6.4 Palladium Spot  802.9 ‐0.5 0.6 17.4 Base Metals  LME Aluminium‐Spot 1 925 5 1,925.5 ‐0.8 08 ‐1.4 14 13 0 13.0 LME Copper‐Spot 5,752.8 0.4 ‐1.1 4.2 LME Zinc‐Spot 2,708.8 1.0 ‐1.5 5.9 LME Lead‐Spot 2,297.3 0.9 ‐1.4 14.9 LME Nickel‐Spot 9 914 8 9,914.8 13 1.3 ‐0.5 05 ‐0.5 05 Steel  640.0 US ‐ Hot Roll Coil Steel  0.0 1.6 %YTD ‐19.2 ‐3.5 ‐16.6 ‐3.0 810.0 ‐16.5 ‐3.0 Benzene CFR India Spot 815.0 ‐16.4 ‐3.0 3.9 3.1 Condensates (in USD/ MT)  European Naptha  477.5 Naphtha C&F Japan  488.1 4.1 ‐1.7 Naphtha CIF NWE Cargo 474.2 1.2 ‐2.4 p g p p Naphtha fob Singapore Spot  52.9 4.2 ‐1.4 Olefins (in USD/ MT)  Ethylene Spot  1,190.0 3.5 28.7 Ethylene FOB Korea Spot 1,095.0 ‐15.4 ‐0.9 Ethylene FOB Japan Spot 1,090.0 ‐15.5 ‐0.9 835 0 835.0 ‐14.8 14 8 ‐3.5 35 5.6 18.4 Propylene FOB Korea Spot Propylene FOB Korea Spot Intermediate (in USD/ MT)  2EH CFR Far East Asia 1,030.0 2EH CFR South East Asia 1,050.0 5.5 18.0 965.0 ‐4.9 ‐2.0 DOP CFR Far East Asia Polymers (in USD/ MT)  2.3 ‐5.4 ‐5.0 ‐2.6 Film Grd Poly HDPE SE Asia 1,160.0 ‐4.9 ‐0.9 y p Film Grd Poly HDPE India Spot 1,170.0 , ‐0.9 3.5 1,660.0 ‐3.2 7.1 UREA Cornbelt 250.0 ‐13.8 ‐9.1 UREA Middle East 212.0 ‐21.5 ‐13.5 US Urea Avg Retail Price US Urea Avg. Retail Price 381 7 381.7 31 3.1 10 6 10.6 18 1.8 Wheat ‐ Active Contract  428.0 0.2 0.4 1.8 CBOT ‐ Soya bean  944.0 ‐6.8 Shipping  ‐3 2 ‐3.2 805.0 Benzene CFR Japan Spot 9,410.0 ‐0.1 01 ‐2 1 ‐2.1 Benzene FOB Korea Spot 1,140.0 03 0.3 ‐0.2 820.0 Film Grd Poly HDPE Far E Spot 364 0 364.0 0.7 Benzene Aromatics Rotterdam  4.9 C Corn ‐ A i C Active Contract  1 255 0 1,255.0 %MTD LLDPE Future Contract (CNY/ MT)  Agriculture  B lti D I d Baltic Dry Index  Closing A Aromatics (in USD/ MT)  i (i USD/ MT) Energy  NYMEX Gasoline  Index  30 6 30.6 Urea (in USD/ MT)  Urea Price (RMB/ MT)  Source: Data taken from Bloomberg 4/5/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 5
6. Oman News CBO Treasury Bills Tender Results (Source: ONA)  A tender of Government Treasury Bills, issue number 455, was held at the Central Bank of Oman (CBO) this week with total value allotted of RO 59 million, for a maturity period of 91 days, from 5th April until 5th July 2017.  Average accepted price reached 99.735 for every RO 100 while the minimum accepted price arrived at 99.730 per RO 100. The average discount rate and the average yield reached 1.06257% 1 06257% and 1.06540% 1 06540% respectively. respectively  Note that the interest rate on the Repo operations with CBO is 1.483% for the period from 04/04/2017 to 10/04/2017 while the discount rate on the Treasury Bills Discounting Facility with CBO is 2.233% for the same period. Duqm refinery work to start by year‐end: Undersecretary (Source: Times of Oman)  Oman plans to start work on a state‐of‐the‐art refinery with a capacity to refine 230,000 barrels per day of crude oil towards the end of the year, as per news sources quoting the undersecretary at the Ministry of Oil and Gas.  Duqm Refinery, which is a 50:50 joint venture between Oman and Kuwait, is expected to take four years to complete the work and ready by 2021  The undersecretary said the government is now evaluating EPC (Engineering, Procurement and Construction) bids submitted by potential contractors for building the refinery in Duqm. The winning company will be announced after careful evaluation of the bids.  As much as 65% of crude feedstock for the refinery will be from Kuwait, while the remaining 35% will be supplied by the Sultanate. A shareholder agreement between Oman and Kuwait will be signed on April 10. GBCM Morning Briefing 6
7. Oman News CBO assesses vulnerabilities in macro ‐financial system (Source: Oman Observer)  The Central Bank of Oman’s (CBO) Financial Stability Department (FSD) held a meeting on the ‘Assessment of Vulnerabilities in the Omani Macro‐Financial System with External Stakeholders’ this week.  The meeting was intended to receive the feedback of market participants on issues of potential distress brewing in the Omani economy, in addition to sharing information on developments in the area of financial stability with the participants.  During the meeting special emphasis was made on the probable economic fallout due to the current economic developments in the wake of sharp decline in oil prices and its implications on the financial system.  per the Head of Financial Stabilityy Department p in CBO,, end‐December 2016 data showed that there is no immediate concerns on As p capital adequacy, liquidity, assets quality and profitability positions of the banks.  While the concentration of loans, deposits, and borrowers continues to be an issue of concern to the Oman banking sector.  The current prevailing macroeconomic uncertainty warrants extra vigilance and cautionary measures from banks in their exposures towards sensitive sectors such as real estate and personal loans. GBCM Morning Briefing 7
8. MSM ‐ Market Watch Source: Bloomberg, GBCM Research Market Outlook – Positive sentiments to prevail amid improvement in oil prices, stick to frontline stocks… During the previous trading session, all the regional markets ended on a positive note amid stable global market cues and improved oil prices. prices We saw fresh institutional buying in most of the markets post dividend adjustments albeit at lower volumes. volumes Oman ended further in green gaining 0.5% for the day. We expect the local and the regional markets to open on a positive note for the day and to see momentum continuing with the signs of improvement in oil prices and also on relatively attractive valuations. We do expect MSM also to continue its momentum on dividend reinvestment. On the technical side, MSM Index would continue to trade positive with near term resistance seen around 5,680 levels. GBCM Morning Briefing 8
9. UAE  News Taqa gets lifeline from state utility Adwea (Source: Reuters)  Abu Dhabi's state utility tightened its grip on loss‐making Abu Dhabi National Energy Co (Taqa) by boosting its stake to 74%, days after it granted land that could potentially wipe out the energy company's losses.  Abu Dhabi Water & Electricity Authority (Adwea) had raised its stake to 74% from 52.38%. Adwea bought a 21.7% stake in Taqa held by the h Fund d for f the h Support off Farm Owners.  The move came after Adwea transferred land to Taqa valued at 18.7 billion dirhams ($5.1 billion) after Taqa reported a full‐year 2016 loss of 18.55 billion dirhams.  At the th date d t off transfer, t f Taqa T recorded d d the th fair f i value l off leasehold l h ld land l d att 18.7 18 7 billion billi dirhams, di h under d property t plant l t and d equipment, i t with ith a corresponding amount recorded as an equity contribution from Adwea. UAE’s non‐oil economy hits a 19‐month high (Source: The National)  UAE non‐oil businesses were at their most confident in more than a year and a half in March 2017, adding to signs throughout the first quarter that the country is starting to recover from a slump induced by the low oil price.  According to the Emirates NBD/ IHS Markit Purchasing Managers Index published, which measures the economic confidence of business managers in the manufacturing man fact ring and services ser ices industries, ind stries non‐oil non oil PMI climbed to a 19‐month 19 month high of 56.2 56 2 in March, March from 56.0 56 0 in February Febr ar GBCM Morning Briefing 9
10. GCC News Saudi Arabia appoints banks to issue first international dollar sukuk (Source: Reuters)  Saudi Arabia has mandated investment banks to arrange the kingdom's first international sukuk denominated in dollars, finance ministry said.  The ministry appointed several local and international banks to coordinate meetings with fixed‐income investors that would start this coming after which the sukuk would be issued "according to capital market conditions”. It provided no details on the size of the issue.  Riyadh is expected to sell up to $10 billion of sukuk with an issue that could take place in the next few weeks, as per news sources.  Citi, HSBC and JP Morgan are global coordinators on the planned issue. BNP Paribas and Deutsche Bank are also involved with lead roles, and other banks might join the group of lead managers Islamic Development Bank gives initial price guidance for dollar sukuk (Source: Reuters)  Islamic Development Bank has set initial price guidance for a planned five‐year U.S. dollar‐denominated sukuk in the low to mid 40 basis points over mid‐swaps, as per news sources.  The triple A‐rated Jeddah‐headquartered bank is likely to price the Islamic bond today. Boubyan Bank, Emirates NBD Capital, GIB Capital, Goldman Sachs International HSBC, Maybank, Natixis, and Standard Chartered Bank are the joint lead managers. Saudi non‐oil private sector posts growth in 1Q of 2017 (Source: Gulf Base)  Saudi Arabia’s non‐oil private sector remained entrenched in growth territory at the end of Q1 2017, with sharp rates of expansion in new orders and output underpinning the overall upturn. As a result, companies raised input buying to the greatest extent in 18 months.  The headline seasonally adjusted Emirates NBD Saudi Arabia Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) slipped from February’s 18‐month high of 57.0 to 56.4 in March. Nevertheless, the latest reading was consistent with a marked improvement in the overall health of the sector.  Moreover, the PMI average for the Q1 2017 (56.7) was the highest in one‐and‐a‐half years. GBCM Morning Briefing 10
11. | Institutional Sales ‐ Hunaina Banatwala, (+968) 2235 0717 |Institutional Brokerage ‐ Talal Al Balushi, (+968) 2235 0725| | Equity Research ‐ Kanaga Sundar, Sundar (+968) 2235 0727 | Vijay Sridharan, Sridharan (+968) 2235 0728 | Disclaimer: This document has been prepared and issued by Gulf Baader Capital Markets SAOC ("the Company") on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. While all care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated are accurate and the opinions given are reasonable, neither Gulf Baader Capital Markets SAOC nor any employee shall be in anyway responsible for the contents of this report. report The Company may have a position and may perform buying/selling for itself or its clients in any security mentioned in this report. This is not an offer to buy or sell the investments referred therein. 4/5/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 11