GCC Daily Market Update - 8 October

Transcription

1. WEEKLY WRAP October 08 , 2017 ECONOMIC UPDATE & NEWS Region Event Period Survey Actual Prior France Markit France Manuf. PMI Sep F 56.0 56.1 56.0 Eurozone Markit Eurozone Man. PMI Sep F 58.2 58.1 58.2 2.40 2.30 60.8 58.8 - (0.40%) (0.50%) Aug - (2.72%) (8.15%) 2.20 2.10 CPI YoY Sep 3.10% 3.00% 3.30% US Durable Goods Orders Aug F 1.70% 2.00% 1.70% Germany Factory Orders MoM Aug 0.70% 3.60% (0.40%) US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Sep 80k (33k) 169k Canada Unemployment Rate Sep 6.20% 6.20% 6.20% Source: Bloomberg 2.00 1.90 Source: Bloomberg year notes, USD 4.0bn of 10-year notes and USD 3.0bn of 30-year offering. (Source: Bloomberg) GLOBAL NEWS  US personal consumption expenditures rose by 1.3% YoY in Aug-17. Excluding food and energy it rose by 0.1% as Hurricane Harvey weighed on auto sales. (Source: Reuters)  US employment in private sector rose by 135,000 jobs in Sep-17 as compared to a rise of 228,000 jobs in Aug-17. (Source: Nasdaq)  Eurozone unemployment rate remained steady at 9.1% in Aug-17. The unemployment in euro area fell by 0.3% MoM to 14.8mn. (Source: Market  Saudi Arabia has cleared the payment of 36.0% of total orders of SAR 189.0bn to the private sector. (Source: Zawya)  Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority’s bank deposits fell by 0.6% MoM to SAR 1.6tn in Aug-17. The demand deposits fell by 0.8% MoM to SAR 989.3bn. (Source: Mubasher)  Saudi Arabia’s trade balance surplus amounted to SAR 168.5bn during the first seven months of 2017. Value of exports amounted to SAR 63.9bn and imports stood at SAR 43.2bn in July-17. (Source: Mubasher)  Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency has stopped Sharia based insurer, SABB Takaful, from issuing or renewing insurance or savings products, due to weaknesses in the firm's internal controls. (Source: Zawya) Insider)  Eurozone inflation grew by 1.5% YoY in Sep-17 however core inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco fell by 1.1% YoY. 02-Oct Russia 25-Sep 427.1b 18-Sep 424.0b 11-Sep 272k - 04-Sep 260k Sep-29th 28-Aug 265k Gold and Forex Reserve 21-Aug Initial Jobless Claims Russia 14-Aug US Sep-30th 2.24 07-Aug M1 Money Supply YoY 58.1 31-Jul Qatar Sep Sep-29th 24-Jul MBA Mortgage Applications 17-Jul ISM Manufacturing US 10-Jul US UST 10yr Bond (Source: France24)  UK GDP rose by 0.3% QoQ in Q2-17. Services rose by 0.4% while production, construction and agriculture fell by 0.3%, 0.5% and 0.1%, respectively. (Source: Hellenic Shipping News)   China has set up a new CNY 10.0bn worth government backed fund to mix the economies of Beijing and Tianjin with the surrounding Hebei province. (Source: Financial Express) Saudi Arabia’s remittances of expatriates decreased by 2.3% YoY to SAR 12.5bn in Aug-17 and SAR 34.9bn in Q2-17. Citizens' remittances increased by 38.8% YoY to SAR 6.8bn. (Source: Mubasher)   Japan’s monetary base rose by 15.6% YoY to JPY 471.1tn in Sep-17. Banknotes in circulation rose by 4.6% YoY while coins rose by 1.2% YoY. (Source: Market Insider) Kuwait is planning to cap public spending at KWD 21.0bn per year over the next three fiscal years to help the government plan future debt sales. (Source: Gulf Times)  RBA kept its interest rate unchanged at 1.5%. (Source: ABC)  Australia's trade surplus rose by 22.4% MoM to USD 989.0mn in Aug17. Total exports rose by 1.0% while imports were flat at USD 31.2bn. QATAR NEWS  Qatar’s real GDP rose by 0.6% YoY to QAR 198.6bn and nominal GDP grew by 8.5% YoY to QAR 146.3bn in Q2-17. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar’s total value of non-oil exports rose by 35.2% MoM to QAR 1.8bn in Aug-17. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar’s PPI rose by 10.4% YoY in Aug-17. PPI for mining rose by 10.1% YoY driven by 10.2% rise in the price of crude petroleum and natural gas and 2.4% rise in prices of stone, sand and clay. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar Airway announced that it has completed 49.0% stake in Italy's AQA Holding, the new parent company of Italy's second largest carrier Meridiana. (Source:Foxnews)  Total domestic credit by commercial banks rose by 14.0% YoY to QAR 805.2bn in Aug-17. (Source: Gulf Times) (Source: ABC)  Turkey’s trade deficit rose by 22.8% YoY to USD 5.9bn in Aug-17 driven by rise in imports by 15.3% and exports by 12.3%. (Source: Market Insider)  Reserve Bank of India kept its repo and reverse repo rate at 6.0% and 5.75%, respectively. (Source: Indian Express) GCC NEWS  The UAE Exchange has allocated AED 917.5mn for acquisitions in different variances of technology sector namely fintech, blockchain and other digital channels, its CEO said. (Source: Zawya)   UAE banking sector’s gross credit fell by 1.0% MoM in Aug-17 driven by decrease in credit offtake in government related entities by 1.8% and private sector by 1.6%. (Source: Zawya) Qatar's central bank sold QAR 1.0bn of Treasury bills in a monthly auction. (Source: Brecorder)  The Cabinet approved a draft decree authorising Qatar Development Bank to utilise markets’ land and other services across the country.  UAE’s total value of remittances by foreign workers reached AED 78.0bn during the H1-17. (Source: Trade Arabia)   Abu Dhabi and Saudi Arabia’s total trade value of non-oil goods amounted to AED 9.5bn during the first seven months of 2017. (Source: Qatar Islamic Bank has implemented the new Qatar Central Bank regulation to centralise the cheque book by using Ministry of Interior cheque printing services instead of private companies. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar population rose by 3.2% YoY and 7.7% MoM to 2.6mn in Sep17 and is expected to continue to rise until May-18. (Source: Gulf Times) Trade Arabia)  Abu Dhabi raised USD 10.0bn in bonds consisting of USD 3.0bn of five- (Source: Gulf Times) 1
2. WEEKLY WRAP October 08 , 2017 EQUITY Index Price S&P 500 WTD %Δ MTD %Δ YTD %Δ COMMENTARY Index Price WTD %Δ MTD %Δ YTD %Δ 2,549.3 1.2 1.2 13.9 MSCI EM 1,103.1 2.0 2.0 27.9 22,773.7 1.6 1.6 15.2 S&P GCC 1,651.1 0.9 0.9 5.1 Nasdaq 6,064.6 1.4 1.4 24.7 Dow Jones Islamic 3,470.1 0.9 0.9 19.4 FTSE 100 7,522.9 2.0 2.0 5.3 KSA (TASI) 7,259.2 (0.3) (0.3) 0.7 DAX 30 12,955.9 1.0 1.0 12.8 UAE (DFM) 3,591.1 0.8 0.8 1.7 CAC 40 5,359.9 0.6 0.6 10.2 UAE (ADX) 4,414.2 0.4 0.4 (2.9) 104,137.5 1.2 1.2 33.3 Qatar (DSM) 8,132.1 (2.2) (2.2) (22.1) 15.9 DJIA BIST 100 Nikkei 20,690.7 1.6 1.6 8.2 Kuwait (KSE) 6,662.1 (0.3) (0.3) Sh. Comp 3,348.9 0.0 0.0 7.9 Bahrain (BAX) 1,274.1 (0.7) (0.7) 4.4 Hang Seng 28,458.0 3.3 3.3 29.4 Oman (MSM) 5,213.5 1.5 1.5 (9.8) Sensex 31,814.2 1.7 1.7 19.5 Jordan (ASEGI) 2,109.2 (0.6) (0.6) (2.8) Source: Bloomberg GLOBAL INDICES Weekly Performance (%) YTD Performance (%) 3.3 Hang Seng FTSE 100 MSCI EM Sensex DJIA Nikkei Nasdaq BIST 100 S&P 500 DAX 30 CAC 40 Sh. Comp Jordan (ASEGI) (0.6) 0.6 (1.0) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 33.3 29.4 27.9 24.7 BIST 100 Hang Seng MSCI EM Nasdaq Sensex DJIA S&P 500 DAX 30 CAC 40 Nikkei Sh. Comp FTSE 100 Jordan (ASEGI) (2.8) 2.0 2.0 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.0 (10.0) 4.0 Source: Bloomberg 19.5 15.2 13.9 12.8 10.2 8.2 7.9 5.3 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 Source: Bloomberg GCC INDICES Weekly Performance (%) YTD Performance (%) Oman (MSM) 1.5 Dow Jones Islamic S&P GCC 0.8 UAE (ADX) S&P GCC 5.1 4.4 0.4 Kuwait (KSE) (0.3) KSA (TASI) 1.7 KSA (TASI) 0.7 (2.9) Oman (MSM) (0.7) (9.8) Qatar (DSM)(22.1) (2.2) (3.0) UAE (DFM) UAE (ADX) (0.3) Bahrain (BAX) 19.4 15.9 Bahrain (BAX) 0.9 UAE (DFM) Qatar (DSM) Dow Jones Islamic Kuwait (KSE) 0.9 (2.0) (1.0) 0.0 1.0 (30.0) (20.0) (10.0) 0.0 2.0 Source: Bloomberg 10.0 20.0 Global A slew of positive economic data from major world markets spurred a risk on sentiment amongst investors this week. In US, manufacturing and service sector PMI data painted a robust growth picture of the economy, with solid wage growth adding to further evidence of strength. The S&P 500 rose for the 8th consecutive session before falling marginally on Friday. In Europe, Stoxx 600 advanced amidst strong Eurozone PMI data, however Spanish stocks weighed on the broader markets amidst rising tensions between the Spanish government and secessionists in Spain's Catalonia region. Weakness in GBP lent support to FTSE, which was the 2nd best performer amongst tracked indices. In Asia, Japan’s benchmark posted strong gains amidst weaker yen and rising inflation. GCC GCC markets closed on a mixed note this week. Saudi Arabia’s benchmark started on a weak note, after FTSE had decided to delay including Riyadh in its secondary emerging market index. The benchmark however recouped some losses during the week. Kuwait’s benchmark started on a strong footing after FTSE decided to upgrade Kuwait to emerging market status in September 2018, however the index gave up most of its gains as the decision was largely expected. Dubai’s index closed in green amidst strength in Real Estate and Telecommunication stocks. Qatar The QE index continued its downward trajectory this week as foreign investors sold off stocks ahead of the 3rd quarter earnings releases. Real Estate sector led declines majorly on back of strong sell-off witnessed in Ezdan Holding Group. In terms of volumes, Banking stocks contributed 25.7% of the total trades, followed by Telecom and Industrial sector which contributed 24.7% and 22.9% respectively to the total volumes. Out of 45 stocks listed, 35 closed in red, 7 stocks posted gains (led by Gulf Warehousing Company) while 3 stocks remained unchanged 30.0 Source: Bloomberg DSM INDEX 10,700 10,200 9,700 9,200 8,700 8,200 7,700 Oct-16 8,132.1 Dec-16 Jan-17 Index Mar-17 50 SMA Apr-17 100 SMA Jun-17 200 SMA Jul-17 Sep-17 Indicator Price Last Close 8,132.1 MAVG 50 8,863.4 MAVG 100 9,181.7 MAVG 200 9,851.7 6 Month High 10,489.3 6 Month Low 8,132.1 RSI (14 Days) 25.3 Source: Bloomberg 2
3. WEEKLY WRAP October 08 , 2017 RATES & CREDIT US Treasury (%) Qatar Treasury (%) 3.50 5.00 2.89 3.00 2.50 2.00 2.36 2.19 1.96 1.51 0.50 3.96 3.00 2.05 3.01 2.00 1.72 1.55 1.00 3.41 3.22 3.03 2.45 1.50 4.37 4.00 2.33 2.13 1.26 1.00 0.83 1.26 0.00 0.00 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs 2 Yrs 30 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current Last Year Source: Bloomberg 10 Yrs 30 Yrs Last Year Source: Bloomberg CDS Qatar Govt. Int. Bonds Maturity Price (USD) Z Spread (BPS) Yield (%) WTD Δ (USD) YTD Δ (USD) Global QGS 2018 100.0 52.1 1.56 (0.0) (0.3) US 28.3 0.0 0.0 (1.7) QGIB 2019 106.6 34.9 1.96 (0.1) (3.5) UK 25.9 0.0 0.0 (7.1) QGIB 2020 106.1 67.7 2.41 (0.1) (2.0) Qatari Diar 2020 98.6 85.2 2.75 (0.0) 0.5 5 Years CDS Price (BPS) WTD Δ (BPS) MTD Δ (BPS) YTD Δ (BPS) Germany 14.1 (0.4) (0.4) (9.9) QGIB 2021 105.9 93.3 2.72 0.1 NA France 22.8 0.5 0.5 (16.5) QGIB 2022 105.9 104.4 2.98 (0.5) (1.3) Italy 144.1 0.7 0.7 (18.2) QGS 2023 100.5 108.1 3.09 (0.3) (1.8) Greece 539.6 13.5 13.5 (586.6) QGIB 2026 98.8 116.7 3.38 (0.2) 2.0 QGIB 2030 157.9 156.7 3.88 (0.8) 3.0 QGIB 2040 129.3 183.7 4.31 (0.2) 4.1 QGIB 2042 121.2 182.0 4.31 (0.3) 4.3 QGIB 2046 104.2 183.5 4.35 (0.8) 3.8 Russia 132.7 (5.9) (5.9) (101.3) Japan 38.5 (0.8) (0.8) 6.5 Turkey 177.2 (7.3) (7.3) (98.2) Brazil 187.4 (7.5) (7.5) (96.0) Egypt 342.7 (19.8) (19.8) (116.5) Abu Dhabi 58.5 (4.4) (4.4) (5.9) Bahrain 230.3 (15.3) (15.3) (82.2) Dubai 149.4 (3.0) (3.0) Qatar 99.0 0.0 Saudi Arabia 85.1 (1.3) Source: Bloomberg, QCB US Swap Rates GCC Tenor Price (%) Weekly Δ (BPS) YTD Δ (BPS) 3M LIBOR 1.349 0.015 0.351 6M LIBOR 1.514 0.008 0.196 2.5 12M LIBOR 1.800 0.018 0.114 0.0 13.7 2 years 1.771 0.030 0.315 (1.3) (33.4) 5 years 2.041 0.037 0.064 10 years 2.315 0.024 (0.024) 30 years 2.571 0.038 (0.024) International Credit Spreads iTraxx Europe 56.2 (1.0) (1.0) (16.5) iTraxx Europe Crossover 246.5 (8.4) (8.4) (44.9) CDX North America IG 54.0 (2.0) (2.0) (13.8) CDX North America HY 319.2 (5.2) (5.2) (34.9) iTraxxSovX CEEMEA NA NA NA NA iTraxx Europe Senior Financial 22.4 (1.6) (1.6) (47.6) iTraxx Europe Sub Financial 26.6 (4.4) (4.4) (98.1) Source: Bloomberg Commentary US Treasuries rose this week, after investors ignored weakness in non-farm payrolls data and rather focused on the wage growth observed. The yields were also supported by hawkish comments from Philadelphia Federal Reserve President, Patrick Harker, who penciled in a rate hike this December. Spanish government bonds yields rose, following a sell-off, as tensions between Spain and Catalonia spurred violence after the weekend’s illegal independence referendum. Yield on German bunds rose after data showed unexpected rise in factory orders for Aug-17. Source: Bloomberg 3
4. WEEKLY WRAP October 08 , 2017 COMMODITIES Commodities Price Commentary Brent (USD/bbl) 55.6 WTI Crude (USD/bbl) 49.3 Oil prices fell this week, weighed by data showing a decline in OPEC’s compliance with production-cut agreement in the month of September. Rise in US oil rigs and US crude exports data also weighed on the prices. Saudi Arabia and Russia’s agreement to limit production throughout next year however lent some support the prices later during the week. Natural gas prices tumbled on reports of mild weather, however the prices got some support after EIA reported less-than-expected rise in inventories. Copper prices rose on reports that an earthquake in Chile could disrupt supply. Gold prices fell, amidst a risk on mode in the market. Strength in USD further weighed on the precious metal. Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) 2.9 Gold (USD/t oz.) 1,271.6 Silver (USD/t oz.) 16.8 Copper (USD/lb) 302.9 Source: Bloomberg Weekly Performance (%) YTD Performance (%) Copper Copper 2.5 Silver Gold WTI Crude 5.0 Brent (3.3) (2.1) WTI Crude (4.6) Natural Gas 10.4 Silver (0.8) Brent 20.9 Gold 0.7 Natural Gas (4.8) (6.0) (4.0) (2.0) 0.0 2.0 (8.2) (23.1) (30.0) 4.0 Source: Bloomberg (20.0) (10.0) 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 Source: Bloomberg FX Currencies Price Currencies Price GBP/USD 1.3096 USD/INR 64.8725 EUR/USD 1.1760 USD/CNY 6.6528 CAD/USD 0.7979 USD/TRY 3.6147 AUD/USD 0.7767 USD/EGP 17.6747 0.7093 USD/ZAR 13.7477 112.6500 USD/RUB 58.1461 NZD/USD USD/JPY Commentary USD gained this week, led by higher-than-expected manufacturing activity, unexpected rise in wages and narrowing trade deficit. CAD fell after reports showed third straight monthly decline in exports and slump in oil prices. GBP slumped amidst political worries, while EUR was impacted by political jitters and violence in Spain over Catalonian independence referendum. The common currency however got support from upbeat German factory orders and Eurozone services PMI data. AUD fell after RBA kept interest rates unchanged and highlighted concerns over the strength in currency. Source: Bloomberg Weekly Performance (%) CNY JPY INR EGP CAD EUR AUD RUB ZAR TRY NZD GBP (3.0) Source: Bloomberg YTD Performance (%) EUR AUD CAD GBP RUB CNY JPY INR EGP NZD ZAR TRY (0.1) (0.1) (0.2) (0.2) (0.5) (0.7) (0.9) (1.2) (1.2) (1.4) (1.6) (2.5) (2.5) (2.0) (1.5) (1.0) (0.5) 0.0 11.5 7.8 7.2 5.9 5.8 4.7 3.9 3.8 2.5 2.3 0.2 (2.5) (4.0) (2.0) 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 Source: Bloomberg DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4