GCC Daily Market Update - 8 April

Transcription

1. April 8 , 2020 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) MSCI GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,659.4 22,653.9 8,049.3 5,704.5 10,356.7 4,438.3 92,381.8 18,950.2 24,253.3 2,820.8 30,067.2 (4.3) (26.1) (32.4) 122.1 281.5 92.1 310.7 373.9 504.2 56.8 2,476.3 (0.2) (0.1) (0.4) 2.2 2.8 2.1 0.3 2.0 2.1 2.1 9.0 2.9 3.4 3.0 0.6 4.2 1.0 3.1 0.2 2.8 2.6 2.0 (17.7) (20.6) (7.8) (24.4) (21.8) (25.8) (19.3) (19.9) (14.0) (7.5) (27.1) 8,979.5 6,986.4 3,928.2 1,785.5 4,723.3 3,397.8 1,313.3 459.5 3,671.8 272.3 125.5 205.3 93.8 6.1 (3.1) 3.2 10.8 17.5 3.1 1.8 5.5 5.5 0.1 (0.1) 0.2 2.4 0.5 9.4 7.4 5.2 0.8 (2.1) (1.5) (2.8) 6.9 2.8 (13.9) (16.7) (22.6) (35.4) (24.8) (14.7) (18.4) (19.3) (14.5) 31.9 23.6 1.9 1,664.8 227.3 (1.2) (2.5) 0.1 (12.2) 5.5 (3.6) (9.4) 7.0 (0.7) 2.5 43.5 21.8 14.8 5.1 2.1 (50.6) (59.2) (14.0) 9.3 (18.7) Global The US markets closed lower yesterday, as investors assessed the recent series of global updates on coronavirus. All the three major indices had advanced earlier during the session, however, erased all their gains to end lower. The S&P 500 index fell 0.2%, amidst losses in Utilities and Consumer Staples shares. The Stoxx Europe 600 index increased 1.9% to settle at 326.6, rising for the second consecutive session. Reducing coronavirus cases across the globe continued to support the regional market. Healthy buying support in Travel stocks, contributed to the gains in FTSE 100 index which ended 2.2% higher. In Asia, the Japanese benchmark climbed 2.0%, after the government announced a stimulus package to safeguard the nation against COVID-19. Export oriented shares reported major gains. The Hang Seng index increased 2.1%, amid buying support in Energy and Financial shares. GCC Most GCC markets continued their upward trend yesterday, tracking gains in their global counterparts. Both Emirati markets outperformed their regional peers. Dubai’s index climbed 5.5%, on the back of buying support in Banking shares. Emirates NBD surged by about 15% yesterday. Abu Dhabi’s index advanced by about 5.5%, amid increased buying support in blue-chip shares. The Saudi Arabian index increased 1.8%. Saudi Aramco edged 0.2% higher, coming close to its IPO prices. Qatar The QE index advanced 3.1% yesterday, mirroring gains in the global equity markets. Net buying support on the part of foreign institutional investors supported the benchmark. Trade turnover and volumes increased on the bourse, with Industrials and Real Estate sectors together accounting for more than 65% of the total trading volume. Out of the 47 listed shares, 41 advanced, 3 declined and 3 remained unchanged. Source: Bloomberg QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW GCC Fundamentals Qatar All share P/E (x) P/B (x) 14.0 1.3 Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) 4.3 90.8 Qatar DSM Index 11,200 200.0 10,400 DSM 20 13.3 1.3 4.5 76.6 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 19.9 1.6 3.8 1,420.9 UAE (ADX) 11.0 1.1 6.2 47.9 UAE (DFM) 6.6 0.6 7.0 86.4 Kuwait (KSE) 11.6 1.1 4.7 135.4 Oman (MSM) 6.9 0.6 8.2 1.8 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 9.4 0.8 6.0 0.7 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Gulf Int’nal Services Al Khaleej Takaful Grp Qatar German Co Mesaieed Petrochem Dlala Holding Top Losers Qatar Cinema Zad Holding Co Qatar Indust Manu NA NA Close Price 1.1 1.5 0.5 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 9.3 (34.8) (23.0) (14.8) (15.5) (20.8) (27.3) 18.1 (10.1) (3.6) (52.5) 5,683.6 46.9 1,484.3 13.2 7,832.6 NA 13,515.6 22.4 1,554.8 NA 2.3 14.1 2.5 NA NA (0.1) (0.1) (0.0) NA NA (5.7) (0.7) (0.3) NA NA 4.7 2.0 (29.1) NA NA 28.0 (3.7) (34.3) NA NA 60.6 22.7 7.4 15.8 32.3 11.6 NA NA NA NA Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 8,979.5 9,600 100.0 8,800 8,000 12/Jan 0.0 26/Jan 9/Feb 23/Feb Index Volume (mn) 8/Mar 22/Mar Index Value 5/Apr Closing Level 4,054.9 6,939.7 2,334.1 2,151.5 1,314.7 831.3 2,358.1 1D Change (%) 3.5 2.7 3.9 2.9 0.3 4.0 2.6 Buy (%) 34.0 14.7 48.7 15.8 35.5 51.3 Sell (%) 45.6 20.7 66.3 17.5 16.2 33.7 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. April 8 , 2020 issuance of a mandatory convertible bond to ADPower for the proposed deal. (Source: Zawya) GLOBAL NEWS  According to the International Labour Organization (ILO), the COVID19 pandemic is forecasted to eradicate 6.7% of working hours globally in Q2-20, equivalent to the labour of 195.0mn full-time workers.  Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Human Resources and Social Development told Saudi private-sector employers whose businesses have been impacted by the coronavirus pandemic that they can cut their employees’ wages and working hours with their consent. However, the reduced wages should accurately be as per the number of hours worked. (Source: Arab News)  The Shareholders of Bahrain-based GFH Financial Group (GFH) have approved the distribution of cash dividends at a rate of 3.3% of the company’s ordinary shares amounting to USD 30. (Source: GDN Online)  Fitch Ratings has warned Oman about its risky public finances amid the decline in crude prices and the coronavirus pandemic. If Brent crude prices average USD 35.0 per barrel in 2020, the nation is likely to see a budget deficit of more than USD 10.0bn, or around 16.0% of GDP. The nation is expected to see a high fiscal deficit and drawdown of fiscal reserves in 2020. (Source: Bloomberg Quint)  Oman’s Public Establishment for Industrial Estates (Madayn) has entered into an agreement with Al Madina Logistics Services to manage and operate the customs area services at Al Mazunah Free Zone (AMFZ) in Oman, as per the Director General of AMFZ. The volume of imported goods to AMFZ increased by 44.0% YoY to 87,341 tons and total number of incoming vehicles increased by 500.0% YoY to 2,066 in Q1-20. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Bahrain's money supply (M3) increased by 15.0% YoY to BHD 13.8bn (USD 36.3bn) in February-20. (Source: GDN Online)  Fitch Ratings has affirmed Kuwait's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'AA' with a Stable Outlook, driven by the nation’s exceptionally strong fiscal and external balance sheets. (Source: (Source: The New York Times)    The US President said that around USD 70.0bn of the USD 350.0bn loans to cover the payrolls of impacted small businesses have been initiated by the US lenders in recent days, however it is not known how much of that money has been disbursed to them. (Source: Reuters) The US Treasury Secretary said his administration has asked Congress for an extra USD 250.0bn in emergency economic aid for small businesses suffering from the coronavirus pandemic. (Source: Reuters) The UK Cabinet Office minister said that the UK’s Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab will run the nation when the UK Prime Minister is in intensive care and any decision on lifting coronavirus lockdown restrictions won’t be delayed. (Source: The New York Times) GCC NEWS  Moody’s said that additional measures announced by the UAE central bank to support the economy will support the banks' liquidity and restrict their likely deterioration in material asset quality. However, easing the liquidity buffer requirement and cash reserve requirement is expected to be unfavorable towards banks' unsecured creditors as it weakens the banks' resilience. (Source: Zawya)  As per Oxford Economic, the depreciation in the average GCC currencies would have been 14.0% since the beginning of January-20, had they been floating. Wealthy GCC nations such as Qatar have sufficient government financial assets which can act as a defense, but the cushion of some others is very less in the current scenario. (Source: Gulf Times)   Major banks in the GCC revealed their exposure to Dubai-based distressed healthcare operator, NMC Health which includes Kuwaitbased Al Ahli Bank of Kuwait (USD 26.3mn), National Bank of Kuwait (USD 91.4mn) and Bahrain-based Khaleeji Commercial Bank (USD 32.7mn). (Source: Zawya) Fitch Ratings)  Kuwait’s Finance Minister said that the nation’s financial position is strong, but it must complete reform in public finance to assure sustainability of institutions and the welfare of citizens. (Source: Reuters)  The CEO of Kuwait National Petroleum Corp (KNPC) announced that Kuwait’s Mina Al-Ahmadi oil refinery has completed a biofuels expansion project with the addition of two new coal and naphtha hydro treating units producing 37,000 and 8,400 barrels per day (bpd) of oil equivalent respectively. The cost of the biofuels project has reached KWD 4.6bn (USD 14.7bn). (Source: Reuters) As per consulting firm, Knight Frank, the long-term outlook of the UAE’s industrials and logistics markets is strong despite the short to medium-term challenges amid the global Coronavirus pandemic. (Source: Zawya)    Dubai Economic Department announced that Dubai has extended the closing of commercial activities until 18th April-20 as a part of efforts to prevent the coronavirus pandemic. Sectors exempted from the lockdown will operate as usual during the period. (Source: Reuters) Dubai-based property developer, Seven Tides announced that over 27.0% of the work is complete on its prime property, Seven Palm, situated on Palm Jumeirah in Dubai and is expected to be delivered in Q4-20. (Source: Trade Arabia) QATAR NEWS  Qatar’s ruler has directed the government to delay USD 8.2bn in unawarded contracts on capital expenditure projects due to the coronavirus outbreak, as per a bond prospectus. The document stated that the crisis may continue to negatively impact the nation’s economy and financial markets and result in a recession. (Source: Reuters)  Qatar sold USD 10.0bn of bonds with three-tranches, comprising of 5year bonds valued at USD 2.0bn at 300 bps over the US Treasuries, USD 3.0bn in 10-year bonds at 305 bps over the benchmark and USD 5.0bn in 30-year bonds at 4.4%. The deal received orders worth more than USD 44.0bn. (Source: Reuters)  Qatar International Centre for Conciliation and Arbitration (Qicca) official said that companies in Qatar have started using sophisticated digital signature platforms, making them essential tools for business transactions amid the COVID-19 pandemic. (Source: Gulf Times)  The Qatar Free Zones Authority (QFZA) has signed a MoU with Qatar Science & Technology Park (QSTP) to supervise, regulate, and support research development and entrepreneurship efforts to accelerate the establishment of a sustainable knowledge-based economy in Qatar. Dubai-based Emaar Properties has suspended work on all its key projects in Dubai amid the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. (Source: Arabian Business)  Dubai-based private equity firm, Gateway Partners has acquired a 40.0% stake in the Gulf franchise of Canada-based coffee and breakfast chain, Tim Hortons for USD 50.0mn. The proceeds will be used for the company’s expansion into Egypt, India and the GCC. (Source: Reuters)  Abu Dhabi National Energy Company (TAQA) has given approval for the sale and purchase of an asset swap deal with the Abu Dhabi Power Corporation (ADPower), aimed at creating a new huge regional utilities company to fasten the transformation of the water and electricity industry in the UAE. TAQA’s board also approved the (Source: Gulf Times) 2
3. April 8 , 2020 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.0922 USD/QAR 3.6415 108.7600 EUR/QAR 3.9772 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.2362 JPY/QAR 0.0335 USD/CHF 0.9694 GBP/QAR 4.5016 USD/CAD 1.3993 CHF/QAR 3.7564 AUD/USD 0.6170 CAD/QAR 2.6024 NZD/USD 0.5977 AUD/QAR 2.2468 USD/INR 75.1300 INR/QAR 0.0485 USD/TRY 6.7645 TRY/QAR 0.5383 USD/ZAR 18.3201 ZAR/QAR 0.1988 USD/BRL 5.2241 BRL/QAR 0.6971 FX Commentary The USD declined against a basket of major currencies yesterday, with the dollar index settling 0.8% lower at 99.9. The dollar declined, amid increasing hopes that the ongoing lockdowns are reducing the speed of coronavirus outbreak. The GBP inched higher against the USD, as the investors assessed the progress in the health condition of the UK’s Prime Minister. The JPY inched higher against the USD, after the nation declared state emergency in light of coronavirus. The AUD increased against the USD, tracking gains in metal prices and as the Reserve Bank of Australia left its interest rates unchanged. The CAD strengthened against the USD, amidst broad based strength in the riskier currencies. The EUR advanced, after data indicated that the German industrial production data topped maket estimates. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.07 0.29 0.92 1.35 1.04 (0.57) (0.49) (0.43) (0.32) (0.13) 1.07 1.13 1.19 1.27 1.43 4.0% 2.85% 3.03% 3.28% SAIBOR NA 0.71 1.01 1.23 1.23 2.0% 0.58 1.24 1.84 1.44 0.46% 0.71% 0.43 0.26% 0.62% EIBOR BMIBOR 0.65 0.97 1.30 1.60 1.88 NA NA 1.69 1.94 2.44 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US LIBOR EURIBOR QAIBOR KIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Source: Bloomberg 2.5% 2.4% 2.3% 2.0% 0.8% 0.7% 0.6% 2.7% 0.9% 0.0% 2 Yrs 3.93% 4.14% 1.30% 0.0% 5 Years CDS 4.0% 0.5% 6.0% Qatar 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 2.4% Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 5 Yrs Current 7 Yrs 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change US 25.3 8.0 Turkey 642.3 300.3 UK 38.9 12.6 Brazil 323.6 201.1 Germany 26.5 NA Egypt 584.6 257.3 France 40.3 NA Abu Dhabi 139.0 92.5 Italy 188.7 71.4 Bahrain 476.2 254.4 Greece 230.6 69.5 Dubai 315.0 182.5 Russia 174.1 96.3 Qatar 155.3 108.8 Japan 41.9 19.9 Saudi Arabia 166.2 95.2 Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event 9:30 France Bank of France Ind. Sentiment 14:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications 15:15 Canada Housing Starts 15:30 Canada Building Permits MoM Period Survey Mar 90 Prior 96 Apr-03rd -- 15.30% Mar 172.5k 210.1k Feb (4.00%) 4.00% 16:00 Russia CPI Weekly YTD Apr-06th -- 1.50% 16:00 Russia CPI WoW Apr-06th -- 0.20% 16:45 US Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Apr-05th -- 56.3 2:01 UK RICS House Price Balance Mar 10% 29% 2:50 Japan Japan Buying Foreign Stocks Apr-03rd -- ¥879.6b 2:50 Japan Japan Buying Foreign Bonds Apr-03rd -- (¥1.7b) -- (¥1,421.9b) -- (¥3,490.2b) 2:50 Japan Foreign Buying Japan Stocks Apr-03rd 2:50 Japan Foreign Buying Japan Bonds Apr-03rd Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) 0.9 NA 10.9 (0.1) NA NA Automated Systems Co Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. April 8 , 2020 nd QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS (As on 2 April 2020) Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing Qatar First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Baladna Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Investment Holding Industries Qatar Mesaieed QAMCO Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Alkhaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 4.8 5.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.1 6.1 8.4 0.0 3.5 5.6 3.3 4.9 3.8 0.0 6.7 4.7 5.7 4.5 5.0 0.0 0.0 5.9 6.0 4.9 7.0 0.0 0.0 5.8 4.2 0.2 5.6 4.7 6.3 8.8 5.2 3.8 7.6 7.0 0.0 6.1 5.7 6.6 0.0 0.0 5.0 3.2 4.1 5.7 4.4 4.6 4.8 6.2 5.2 4.3 P/B Ratio (x) 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 2.0 0.4 0.9 2.1 1.9 2.3 0.4 1.8 1.0 0.5 1.6 2.1 1.0 1.9 1.5 0.2 2.6 2.2 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 1.2 1.4 0.5 1.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 1.1 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.3 2.4 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.4 1.2 0.4 0.8 1.2 P/E Ratio (x) 10.7 7.7 (M) (ç) 7.9 (H) (ç) 6.8 12.7 12.2 (M) (ç) 11.5 12.4 11.6 14.8 11.3 (M) (ç) 6.7 21.3 16.0 21.8 13.2 (M) (ç) (M) (ç) 11.7 15.9 15.8 11.2 41.8 5.8 16.3 17.4 36.3 10.7 9.8 9.4 13.0 14.9 11.8 10.7 10.8 (M) (ç) 12.7 31.6 7.8 44.1 19.2 8.3 13.0 11.2 25.6 12.3 10.2 11.5 10.1 10.9 12.4 EPS (QR) 0.3 0.5 (M) (ç) 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 (M) (ç) 1.3 0.6 1.6 0.0 0.7 (M) (ç) 0.4 0.3 0.9 0.1 1.2 (M) (ç) (M) (ç) 0.4 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 (M) (ç) 0.5 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.3 BV/Share (QR) 2.6 4.4 0.7 3.0 2.4 1.7 1.9 1.4 1.0 7.3 4.0 8.0 1.0 4.3 1.0 5.7 3.6 7.2 2.3 8.5 0.3 1.0 1.9 6.5 3.4 1.3 1.9 1.0 5.7 1.2 1.0 9.1 2.3 3.4 4.7 2.3 2.1 2.2 2.6 5.8 2.5 3.1 5.1 1.2 1.1 3.1 1.8 7.2 1.1 3.7 3.1 1.7 12.7 3.6 2.9 Stock Price (QR) 3.1 3.9 0.4 1.9 1.3 1.2 3.7 0.6 0.9 14.9 7.6 18.0 0.4 1.0 3.0 5.9 14.9 2.2 16.2 0.4 0.2 5.1 14.2 0.6 1.0 0.4 7.0 1.7 0.5 13.8 1.2 2.4 3.4 1.3 1.1 2.2 2.0 6.1 3.0 0.5 0.5 1.0 6.0 0.9 4.3 2.1 4.8 - Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫ا س ت ثمار ال قاب ضة‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫قامكو‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above-mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4