GCC Daily Market Update - 7 May

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE May 7 , 2018 MARKET COMMENTARY GLOBAL MARKETS Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,663.4 24,262.5 6,769.1 7,567.1 12,819.6 5,516.1 102,599.2 22,472.8 29,926.5 3,091.0 34,915.4 33.7 332.4 125.6 64.5 129.5 14.4 (309.9) NA (386.9) (9.8) (187.8) 1.3 1.4 1.9 0.9 1.0 0.3 (0.3) NA (1.3) (0.3) (0.5) 0.6 0.4 2.5 0.8 1.6 (0.1) (1.6) 0.0 (2.9) 0.3 (0.7) (0.4) (1.8) 5.8 (1.6) (0.8) 3.8 (11.0) (1.3) 0.0 (6.5) 2.5 8,908.0 8,113.9 4,560.4 2,972.4 4,795.4 4,718.5 1,275.8 1,653.2 3,641.0 102.3 6.4 3.6 24.4 (5.3) (7.2) 12.3 (0.1) 0.1 1.2 0.1 0.1 0.8 (0.1) (0.2) 1.0 (0.0) 0.0 (2.2) (1.2) (2.3) (3.1) (0.1) (0.2) 1.4 (1.9) 0.5 4.5 12.3 3.7 (11.8) NA (7.5) (4.2) 3.8 0.2 74.9 69.7 2.7 1,314.7 306.6 1.3 1.3 (0.0) 2.0 0.7 1.7 1.9 (0.6) 0.2 0.2 0.7 2.7 (1.2) (0.3) 0.1 13.2 16.5 (7.6) 0.4 (7.4) Source: Bloomberg Global The US stocks ended higher on Friday, as investors shrugged off reports of slower than expected job creations by the domestic economy during April18. All major indices rose by more than 1.0%, with the Nasdaq outperforming its peers. Gains in the Nasdaq index were largely contributed by rise in the Apple stock, amid reports that Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway bought a sizeable number of shares in the company. The Stoxx Europe 600 index rose 0.6%, amid positive developments on trade talks between US and China, which were easing trade war tensions. The UK’s benchmark rose 0.9%, as gains in Mining and Airline shares and weakness in the GBP supported the benchmark. In Asia, the Japanese market remained closed on account of a public holiday. The Hang Seng index fell 1.3%, closing below the psychological 30,000 mark. GCC Most GCC indices ended higher yesterday. The Saudi Arabian index reversed its trend and inched 0.1% higher, supported by gains in the Petrochemical stocks. In Dubai, Drake & Skull International rose 4.6%, after the company’s ace investor reassured to maintain its stake in the company and support it in raising credit support from banks. The Abu Dhabi index marginally gain 0.1%. Arkan Building Materials rallied 11.7%, after reporting a yearly increase in Q1-18 net profit. Qatar The QE index inched 1.2% higher yesterday, supported by gains in Vodafone Qatar which gained 4.0%, after it announced that it was preparing to launch 5G services by the end of the year. Trade turnover fell amid higher volumes in the market, with Telecom and Industrials sectors together accounting for more than 71.0% of the total volume. Out of the 45 listed stocks, 43 exchanged hands of which, 28 advanced, 8 declined and 7 remained unchanged. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 13.7 1.3 4.5 49.8 DSM 20 13.3 1.4 4.9 35.4 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 17.7 1.8 3.3 1,050.1 UAE (ADX) 12.0 1.4 5.3 37.2 UAE (DFM) 10.1 1.1 5.9 42.1 Kuwait (KSE) 14.2 1.2 3.9 40.3 Oman (MSM) 11.0 1.0 5.1 9.8 Bahrain (BAX) 8.4 0.8 6.4 10.6 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers National Leasing Ezdan Holding Group Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Qatar Navigation Top Losers Doha Insurance Co Qatar General Ins. Qatar German Co Aamal Co Widam Food Co Close Price 9.7 9.6 72.9 9.1 56.0 0.5 0.4 2.8 0.4 1.5 5.9 4.6 4.0 4.0 2.8 (9.5) (20.4) (19.6) 13.5 0.1 (40.2) 71.8 128.5 (37.1) 175.7 29.3 (27.4) 300.2 12.5 0.0 4,894.5 NA (16.4) 5.5 12.9 12.1 46.0 5.6 10.3 61.5 (0.9) (3.0) (0.2) (0.1) (0.3) (6.7) (6.1) (3.1) (0.8) (0.5) (13.5) (6.1) (13.3) 18.2 (1.6) (25.5) 17.6 (37.3) (21.6) (0.8) Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 0.9 14.2 4.0 11.2 103.5 NA 252.4 12.9 19.5 9.9 Qatar DSM Index 9,200 20.0 8,900 8,908.0 8,600 10.0 8,300 8,000 7/Feb 0.0 21/Feb 7/Mar 21/Mar Index Volume (mn) 4/Apr 18/Apr 2/May Index Value Source: Bloomberg QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation Closing Level 3,052.7 5,841.4 3,018.3 2,950.7 1,741.0 1,029.6 1,783.8 1D Change (%) 0.9 0.4 0.3 (1.2) 3.0 4.0 2.0 Buy (%) 46.7 28.7 75.4 13.0 11.6 24.6 Sell (%) 51.3 17.7 69.0 12.5 18.5 31.0 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE May 7 , 2018 15 energy sector start-ups out of a total 515 companies from over 65 countries in the 2nd Free Electrons Program which helps these startups to develop innovative energy solutions. (Source: Trade Arabia) GLOBAL NEWS   Member of the Federal Open Market Committee, Esther George has stated that US has currently reached its goals of full employment and price stability. (Source: Forexlive)  New York Fed President William Dudley provided optimistic views about US growth while making a cautious note that it’s too early to say that the economy has overcome persistently low inflation. (Source: Dubai based family office White City Ventures and New York based Hakim Organization have jointly agreed to acquire New York’s iconic Plaza Hotel for USD 600.0mn by 25 June-18. (Source: Arabian Business)  Abu Dhabi Investment Authority which posted an annualized rate of return of 7.0% in FY-17 has expressed its views that the short-term outlook for global growth remains positive with a prevailing interest rate environment, ample liquidity and narrower credit spends. (Source: Bloomberg)  Federal Reserve Vice Chairman for Supervision Randal Quarles has praised the proposed changes to supplemental leverage ratio rules and stress testing regime as they would make the financial system safer without a material reduction in overall capital retention. (Source: Arabian Business)  Germany’s Economic Minister is expecting a new European Union trade deal with the US that would focus on the industrial sector and will lead to an overall reduction in tariffs. (Source: Reuters) Abu Dhabi based Etihad Airways is considering its options ranging from swapping models to delaying deliveries to outright cancellations for over 160 aircraft it has ordered from companies including Airbus and Boeing, as a part of its restructuring strategies. (Source: Gulf Times)  Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has committed to cut taxes for lower income classes and highlighted a multibillion dollar infrastructure plan. (Source: Reuters) IMF has raised Saudi Arabia’s economic growth forecast for 2018 slightly to 1.7% as against the earlier forecast of 1.6%, due to continuous rise in crude oil prices. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Chinese central bank Governor has expressed his concerns over the country’s high trade imbalance with the US, calling it a structural and long-term problem which should be viewed with rationality. (Source: Saudi Oger’s subsidiary France based Oger International has been acquired by French company AMK Capital Investment for an undisclosed amount. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Saudi Aramco has entered into 16 purchase agreements valued at more than SAR 26.0bn (USD 6.9bn) with top pressure vessel manufacturers in the country under its In-Kingdom Total Value Add (IKTVA) program. (Source: Trade Arabia) The Kuwait Authority for Partnership Projects is expected to issue tenders to form a partnership project for the expansion of a wastewater treatment plant and a municipal solid waste treatment project in which winning bidder would have a 40.0% stake. (Source: Trade American Banker)    Reuters) GCC NEWS  Remittances from the GCC region to low and middle-income countries are expected to grow at about 4.1% in FY-18 to USD 485.0bn due to an increase in oil prices, according to a report by World Bank Group report. (Source: Gulf Times)   UAE President has ordered the payment of one-month bonus salary to all serving and retired government employees, civilians and military, to celebrate his father’s birth anniversary, Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan which is equal to AED 1.6bn (USD 435.0mn). (Source: Trade Arabia)   Cargo handled by Dubai World Central has increased by 8.9% YoY to 229,831 tons in Q1-18, while the passenger traffic increased by 0.2% YoY to 334,455 according to Dubai Airports. (Source: Trade Arabia)   Dubai Investment Development Agency (Dubai FDI) has been on a tour of three Indian cities, Mumbai, Hyderabad and Kochi with a purpose of attracting investors and businesses to invest in Dubai to enhance growth. (Source: Trade Arabia)    Dubai International Financial Centre has entered into a MoU with Ireland based Accenture to share resources and knowledge on the latest research and trends in FinTech. (Source: Trade Arabia) Dubai based conglomerate Al Ahli Holding Group is in the process of developing Nomad which is world’s largest entrepreneurial and media hub to facilitate and support the growth of local and international entrepreneurs. (Source: Trade Arabia) Dubai based the private equity firm Abraaj is in advanced talks with potential buyers to sell its investment in Middlesex University’s overseas campus in Dubai in which it had invested in January-17. (Source: Reuters)    Dubai based luxury property developer Damac Properties has announced that its 34-storey Tower 108 building in Jumeirah Village Circle is in the final stages of completion and will start delivering the finished completed units later in 2018. (Source: Trade Arabia) Dubai based Emirates National Oil Company has opened its third 75,004-sq-ft solar-powered service station at the residential community, Discovery Gardens in Dubai as a part of its expansion plans aimed at building 54 service stations by 2020. (Source: Trade Arabia) Dubai Electricity and Water Authority has participated in selection of Arabia) Bahrain based telecommunications group Batelco recorded a net profit growth of 59.8% YoY to BHD 13.1mn (USD 34.5mn), led by execution of its strategic plans across all its operating companies. (Source: Trade Arabia) Bahrain based GFH investment firm has hired Gulf International Bank to cross-list its share in Saudi Arabia. Besides which it also plans to increase its AUM to USD 30.0bn by 2020 from current USD 6.2bn. (Source: Arabian Business) QATAR NEWS  Qatar witnessed registrations of 2,295 new companies in April-18 consisting of new major business records of 1,703 and new subregistries of 592, according to Ministry of Economy and Commerce. (Source: Gulf Times)  Ghanaian Minister of Finance has welcomed Qatar Chamber to explore investment opportunities in several sectors including infrastructure, mining, food and tourism in Qatar. (Source: Oananews)  Qatar’s imports from Turkey have increased 50.0% YoY to reach USD 631.0mn in FY-17 largely consisting of food imports following the economic blockade, according to the Eastern Anatolian Exporters’ Association. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar Petroleum is divesting its 49.0% stake in Qatar Aluminium (Qatalum) through an IPO which is expected to be launched by end of 2018. (Source: Gulf Times)  Ooredoo has launched a new lab to test its wide range of managed connectivity services and innovative concepts to enhance its customer service innovation. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar General Electricity and Water Corp (Kahramaa) has entered into a two year joint research collaboration agreement with Hamad Bin Khalifa University’s to work together towards improving energy efficiency and conservation in the country. (Source: Gulf Times) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE May 7 , 2018 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1990 USD/QAR 3.6415 109.1200 EUR/QAR 4.3662 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.3561 JPY/QAR 0.0334 USD/CHF 1.0000 GBP/QAR 4.9382 USD/CAD 1.2846 CHF/QAR 3.6415 AUD/USD 0.7539 CAD/QAR 2.8347 NZD/USD 0.7020 AUD/QAR 2.7453 USD/INR 66.3700 INR/QAR 0.0549 USD/TRY 4.2309 TRY/QAR 0.8607 USD/ZAR 12.4991 ZAR/QAR 0.2913 USD/BRL 3.5285 BRL/QAR 1.0320 FX Commentary The USD strengthened against a basket of major currencies on Friday, with the dollar index rising 0.2% to settle at 92.612. The greenback strengthened amid expectations that the US Fed might continue to adopt a hawkish tone for its future rate hike measures, despite disappointing US jobs data. The CAD weakened against USD, however losses were limited as oil prices climbed and domestic data pointed to a strengthening of manufacturing activity. The EUR weakened against the USD, as disappointing services activity and retail sales data from the common currency bloc raised doubts about the economic health of the euro area. The TRY fell against the USD, weighed by worries about the central bank’s ability to limit the double-digit inflation which remained above 10.0% mark in April-18. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 1.71 1.76 1.93 2.37 2.78 (0.44) (0.38) (0.37) (0.33) (0.19) 2.26 2.32 2.45 2.65 3.03 4.0% SAIBOR NA 1.92 2.08 2.40 2.80 2.0% EIBOR 1.52 1.75 2.00 2.50 3.10 BMIBOR 1.63 1.93 2.43 2.78 3.30 NA NA 1.75 2.00 2.44 LIBOR EURIBOR QAIBOR KIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 6.0% 3.30% 2.50% 3.99% 4.24% 4.47% 2.79% 2.90% 2.95% 3.12% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 30 Yrs 5.07% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar Source: Bloomberg b Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 4.0% US 27.4 (0.9) Turkey 225.9 UK 17.9 (7.5) Brazil 187.3 12.2 Germany 11.4 (0.8) Egypt 303.9 (48.6) France 18.5 (1.7) Abu Dhabi 66.9 6.9 Italy 90.3 (28.9) Bahrain 371.8 101.5 Greece 342.4 (167.3) Dubai 120.3 (14.1) Russia 141.2 6.1 Qatar 93.1 (10.4) Japan 25.4 (8.6) Saudi Arabia 91.6 7.9 2.76% 2.99% 2.95% 2.92% 2.0% 1.60% 2.29% 2.13% 1.98% 3.01% 2.53% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change 26.3 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 09:00 Germany Factory Orders WDA YoY Mar 5.00% 3.50% 10:30 Germany Markit Germany Construction PMI Apr - 47 11:10 Germany Markit Germany Retail PMI Apr - 51.5 11:30 Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence 19.6 17:00 Canada Bloomberg Nanos Confidence 23:00 US 02:30 Japan May 21 May-04th - 57.9 Consumer Credit Mar $16.000b $10.601b Household Spending YoY Mar 1.00% (0.90%) QoQ (%) Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Saudi Arabian Mining Co Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) 3,563.6 31.6 10.6 638.2 131.5 NA NA NA NA 361.2 4.7 2.7 Saudi Investment Bank Ahli United Bank (Almutahed) NA NA NA 16.8 5.1 280.7 1,189.6 7.6 (10.2) 103.4 12.7 (37.3) 221.8 8.6 43.1 131.0 6.2 56.2 Aviation Lease And Finance 24.5 27.6 6.7 7.8 49.7 (52.1) Bahrain Telecom Co 99.5 10.9 (2.3) 13.1 59.8 NA Aramex National Bank Of UAQ Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE May 7 , 2018 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing Qatar First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Investment Holding Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Alkhaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.2 2.8 0.0 11.2 3.7 6.8 5.7 5.2 0.0 4.1 7.5 4.0 7.2 4.5 8.8 6.3 6.2 4.4 5.7 0.0 0.0 6.9 8.4 6.1 5.9 0.0 4.4 4.5 4.2 4.0 2.3 7.9 8.3 4.4 0.0 6.2 3.8 4.8 7.0 4.2 7.3 5.2 0.0 8.8 6.1 4.8 N/A (‫)غ‬ 3.6 4.2 6.7 6.3 6.2 4.7 P/B Ratio (x) 1.3 1.0 1.4 1.0 1.1 0.8 2.2 0.5 0.8 1.8 1.6 2.2 0.8 1.8 0.8 2.0 2.2 1.1 2.1 1.3 0.5 3.8 0.7 1.6 0.8 0.9 0.5 2.1 1.5 2.4 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.7 0.6 0.6 1.5 0.7 2.3 1.1 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.0 N/A (‫)غ‬ 1.4 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.7 1.5 P/E Ratio (x) 9.8 15.9 32.2 7.4 (H) (‫)م‬ 7.1 12.8 (H) (‫)م‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 10.0 9.6 10.3 42.6 10.7 4.1 21.7 13.9 18.7 12.8 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 9.9 5.1 11.3 12.9 41.1 10.9 18.4 16.9 12.8 16.3 9.2 10.7 16.2 42.6 14.2 32.0 12.6 12.0 21.5 8.1 30.0 46.4 9.7 14.7 12.5 N/A (‫)غ‬ 16.6 10.8 9.5 13.0 10.8 12.6 EPS (QR) 3.1 2.3 0.4 3.6 0.2 1.6 2.7 0.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 10.5 5.6 14.5 0.2 5.9 11.1 2.9 9.8 1.2 11.0 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 6.2 13.8 5.8 0.8 0.4 0.5 6.0 1.0 15.1 2.0 4.1 5.1 2.6 0.3 0.9 1.1 3.7 4.2 1.6 4.2 0.3 0.2 1.5 0.9 5.8 N/A (‫)غ‬ 1.6 3.8 1.6 4.3 2.2 3.0 BV/Share (QR) 23.9 37.7 8.2 27.2 24.0 14.5 15.6 19.5 7.5 58.1 34.5 66.7 8.4 35.3 58.3 32.3 62.9 21.5 65.8 4.5 12.5 16.1 99.1 41.1 12.9 19.8 10.4 53.7 11.2 81.6 21.6 31.0 44.7 24.2 19.6 20.3 24.0 69.2 21.4 31.2 46.6 11.4 12.7 30.0 17.2 70.9 N/A (‫)غ‬ 19.5 26.6 15.1 118.1 32.2 26.2 Stock Price (QR) 30.0 36.1 11.1 26.8 27.3 11.0 34.9 9.7 5.7 105.0 53.7 148.5 7.0 45.2 63.6 136.8 22.6 139.8 5.6 5.7 61.5 70.0 10.3 17.6 5.6 111.0 16.6 192.5 33.0 38.0 54.5 11.1 12.1 34.7 46.0 50.0 34.2 9.6 6.7 14.3 72.9 9.1 41.0 14.9 56.0 - Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫ا س ت ثمار ال قاب ضة‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4