GCC Daily Market Update - 27 May

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE May 27 , 2019 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,826.1 25,585.7 7,301.0 7,277.7 12,011.0 5,316.5 86,072.3 21,117.2 27,353.9 2,853.0 39,434.7 3.8 95.2 (7.0) 46.7 58.6 35.1 1,476.1 (33.9) 86.8 0.5 623.3 0.1 0.4 (0.1) 0.7 0.5 0.7 1.7 (0.2) 0.3 0.0 1.6 (4.1) (3.8) (6.2) (1.9) (2.7) (4.8) (9.8) (5.1) (7.9) (7.3) 1.0 12.7 9.7 15.3 8.2 13.8 12.4 (5.7) 5.5 5.8 14.4 9.3 9,697.3 8,360.2 4,774.8 2,581.8 5,591.6 3,870.9 1,410.3 1,847.8 3,715.5 (33.2) (171.0) (2.6) (7.9) 12.6 (5.0) 1.8 0.6 (0.2) (0.3) (2.0) (0.1) (0.3) 0.2 (0.1) 0.1 0.0 (0.0) (6.5) (10.1) (9.2) (6.7) (0.7) (1.9) (1.6) (6.1) (4.7) (5.8) 6.8 (2.9) 2.1 10.1 (10.5) 5.5 4.5 11.2 68.7 58.6 2.6 1,283.6 270.7 0.9 0.7 0.0 (1.8) 2.0 1.4 1.2 0.8 (0.1) 0.7 (5.6) (8.6) 1.0 (0.2) (6.7) 27.8 28.7 (11.5) 0.2 2.9 Global US markets ended mostly higher on Friday, as US-China trade war fears receded following comments from the US President that he may ease restrictions against Huawei Technologies as part of a superior trade deal with China. The Dow Jones led the gains, while S&P 500 rose amid buying support in Financial stocks. The Stoxx Europe 600 gained 0.6%, as improving global trade scenario improved sentiments in Mining stocks. Gains in Consumer stocks supported FTSE 100, offsetting negative sentiments surrounding the likely resignation of the UK’s Prime Minister. The Japanese benchmark ended trimmed its losses, after reports emerged that the US and Chinese Presidents would have bilateral meetings besides G20 summit which is scheduled in the last week of June-19. GCC Most GCC markets ended lower yesterday. The Saudi Arabian benchmark underperformed its regional peers and fell by 2.0%, amid decline in Financial and Petrochemical sectors. Leading Blue-Chip stocks including National Commercial Bank and SABIC remained the notable losers during yesterday’s trading session. Dubai Index declined by 0.3%, undermined by losses in Investment and Financial Services and Real Estate sectors. Abu Dhabi index inched down by 0.1%, amid decline in Investment and Financial Services and Telecommunication sector. Qatar The QE index declined 0.3% yesterday, with companies having exposures to oil & gas sector registering losses. Domestic institutional investors remained the net sellers during yesterday’s trading session. Trade turnover and volumes increased with Real Estate, Industrials and Banking and Financial services together accounting for 90.1% of the total traded volume. Out of the total 46 listed securities, 41 exchanged hands, 8 advanced, 31 declined while 2 remained unchanged. Source: Bloomberg QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 13.7 1.4 4.2 80.1 DSM 20 13.6 1.5 4.5 72.0 10,200 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 19.1 1.9 3.6 766.8 9,800 UAE (ADX) 13.9 1.4 5.2 17.5 UAE (DFM) 11.3 1.0 5.2 29.6 Kuwait (KSE) 15.8 1.4 3.5 61.4 Oman (MSM) 8.1 0.8 7.1 2.1 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 10.3 0.9 5.4 0.6 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Qatar Islamic Insurance Qatar International Qatar Industrial Mfg. Mesaieed Petrochem Industries Qatar Top Losers Qatar & Oman Invt. Islamic Holding Grp. Qatari Investors Grp. Qatar Cinema & Film Qatar Fuel Close Price 52.9 65.0 38.5 28.2 110.5 1.3 1.1 0.4 0.3 1.1 2.5 1.7 1.0 1.0 1.0 (1.5) (1.7) (9.8) 87.6 (17.3) 5.6 20.2 22.1 18.1 203.0 (0.3) (0.8) (0.7) (0.5) (4.5) (5.1) (4.0) (3.0) (2.7) (2.2) 4.9 (7.7) (20.5) (4.8) 22.3 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 5.8 1.5 12.2 23.2 76.9 11.7 (4.2) 10.8 10.0 70.8 4,043.6 27.0 4.2 26.2 15.1 (9.1) (31.5) (28.6) (17.7) 47.1 1.8 9.9 92.8 0.5 446.7 69.2 837.4 15.9 12.8 17.0 Qatar DSM Index 10,600 40.0 9,697.3 20.0 9,400 27/Feb 0.0 13/Mar 27/Mar 10/Apr Index Volume (mn) 24/Apr 8/May 22/May Index Value Closing Level 3,585.9 7,684.5 3,191.6 3,031.4 1,591.2 874.8 2,305.0 1D Change (%) (0.3) (1.5) 0.5 (0.2) (0.6) (0.7) (1.2) Buy (%) 43.9 11.2 55.1 11.6 33.3 44.9 Sell (%) 36.9 35.9 72.8 11.0 16.2 27.2 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE May 27 , 2019 GLOBAL NEWS    US President maintained pressure on Japan to reduce its trade surplus with the US by indicating that he expects some announcements to be made probably in August-19, which is likely to reduce trade gap between the US and Japan quickly. (Source: Reuters) (Source: Gulf Times)  According to Cavendish Maxwell, Muscat is expected to witness 10.0% YoY decline in shop rents in 2019, together with rents for the best offices and residential villas in the city, due to sluggish economic growth. Rents of residential apartment are expected to decline by 15.0% YoY before the end of 2019. (Source: Zawya)  European Central Bank policy maker, Jens Weidmann, stated that he does not see any hints of price pressures and indicated that he is against adding any extra stimulus for the euro zone. (Source: Bloomberg) Global marine energy transportation firm, Teekay LNG Partners announced that the beginning of its joint venture Bahrain-based liquefied natural gas (LNG) import terminal is expected to be delayed to Q3-19. The terminal was earlier expected to be completed and begin supplying natural gas in Q1-19. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Japanese government announced that effective August-19, the information-technology and telecommunication sectors will be added to foreign ownership restriction in the country. The amendments follow the rising pressure by the US to deal with cyber-security risks and technological transfers. (Source: Reuters) Oman-based Galfar Engineering & Contracting Company reported a 17.1% YoY decline in Q1-19 net profit to OMR 0.5mn (USD 1.2mn), primarily due to lower revenue. The company’s revenue fell by over 8.6% YoY to OMR 64.2mn (USD 166.3mn). (Source: Trade Arabia)  Total production of Omani refineries and petroleum sector grew 7.0% YoY in April-19. Car fuel production also grew by 0.3% YoY, as per National Centre for Statistics and Information (NCSI). However production of diesel fell 3.0% YoY to 8.8mn barrels in April-19. (Source: IMF researchers announced that the companies in the US are paying almost all the costs from the tariffs levied on imported Chinese goods, as against the US President's views that China is paying the cost. (Source: The Strait Times)    The MP of Britain’s Conservative party and candidate for the post of PM, Esther McVey, announced that Britain should exit the EU at the end of, October-19, even if there is no deal. The party will not be asking for any further postponements as it creates unwanted uncertainty amongst individuals, business and the nation. (Source: Reuters) GCC NEWS  The UAE’s Cabinet has given its approval for the Strategy for the Advanced Skills National Program, comprising of strategic objectives to position the UAE as a global leader in the areas of advanced skilled development. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai's Roads and Transport Authority (RTA) announced the completion of 90.0% of the work on Tripoli Street Improvement Project and is likely to be open to the public next month. (Source: Trade Hellenic Shipping News)  Oman’s largest cement manufacturer, Raysut Cement Company announced the completion of the acquisition of Sohar Cement Factory for a value of USD 60.0mn, bringing the former’s capacity to 6.4mn tons per annum. The acquisition also involves purchasing a 20.0% stake in Fujairah Cement. (Source: Times of Oman)  Bahrain-based alternative investment manager, Investcorp has signed an agreement to purchase global advisory firm, Mercury Capital Advisors in line with its strategy to expand its financial portfolio. As per the terms, Mercury will continue to work as an independent business operating under its current leadership team. (Source: The national) Arabia)  Saudi Arabian banks are expected to have difficulty in achieving the results similar to their Q1-19 which was the best in three years due to the slow growth in the economy and rise in bad-loan charges. The earnings of the 12 publicly listed banks are expected to grow at 7.0% YoY for 2019, as compared to 13.0% YoY in Q1-19, as per Bloomberg. As per KAMCO, the aggregate earnings for GCC-listed corporates fell 4.7% YoY in Q1-19 to USD 17.0bn. Except Kuwait and Dubai, all markets in the GCC saw a decline in Q1-19 earnings, which included the highest decline of 20.8% YoY by Bahrain followed by Saudi Arabia (-9.2% YoY). (Source: Kuwait Times)  Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company (Masdar) announced that its consortium with EDF Renewables and Green of Africa has received the tender for the design, financing, construction, operation and maintenance of the 800-megawatt, Noor Midelt Phase 1 multitechnologies solar power plant. (Source: Zawya) Qatar-based provider of Business Process Management (BPM) automation, Mannai Trading Co, has signed a technological partnership with enterprise Robotic Process Automation (RPA) software company, UiPath to enhance the level of integration of RPA to Qatari organizations. (Source: Peninsula Qatar)   Abu Dhabi-based NMC Healthcare, Saudi Arabia’s General Organization for Social Insurance (Gosi) and its investment arm Hassana Investment Company have formed a joint venture in Saudi Arabia’s healthcare sector. NMC has contributed its five assets in Saudi Arabia and injected SAR 250.0mn (USD 66.0mn). (Source: Zawya) Fitch Solutions announced that Qatar Central Bank is likely to maintain its lending and repo rates constant in 2019 to limit the potential funding pressures on commercial banks resulting from the crunch and volatility in the overall emerging market. The firm lowered its forecast for the QCB deposit rate to 2.75% from 3.3%. (Source: Qatar Tribune)   Sharjah Entrepreneurship Centre (Sheraa) has raised more than USD 37.0mn in investment and generated over USD 24.0mn in cumulative revenue since its inception in 2016, according to the organizations report. Its 72 graduate start-ups have generated total of 506 jobs in the UAE. (Source: Arabian Business) The CEO of Qatar International Islamic Bank announced that the bank is investing substantially on the IT infrastructure and keeps cybersecurity as a top priority. The bank is seeking partnership with FinTech firms as well as looking closely at the blockchain technology.  Qatar’s Hamad International Airport (HIA) has announced the launch of the second phase of its innovative smart airport program. The program aims to initiate a key digital transformation of the passenger journeys through facial biometric recognition across all key passenger touch points. (Source: Qatar Tribune)  Qatar-based dairy and beverages producer, Baladna Food Industries, is planning for a major expansion to achieve self-sufficiency in milk products in Qatar. As a first of its kind in the country, the company is preparing to begin production of condensed milk and expects to sell it in the local market by the end of 2019. (Source: Qatar Tribune)   Saudi Arabia's construction sector saw a robust uptick during the Q119 with SAR 48.9bn (USD 13.3bn) worth of contracts being awarded primarily in the energy and utility sectors, according US-Saudi Arabian Business Council report. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Saudi Arabia’s Commerce and Investment Ministry has issued 51 exports permits to local companies in the past eight months, comprising of 30 steel and 21 cement companies, reflecting weakening domestic demand due to continued construction slump. (Source: Zawya) QATAR NEWS (Source: Gulf Times) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE May 27 , 2019 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1233 USD/QAR 3.6415 109.3100 EUR/QAR 4.0905 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.2744 JPY/QAR 0.0333 USD/CHF 1.0022 GBP/QAR 4.6407 USD/CAD 1.3437 CHF/QAR 3.6335 AUD/USD 0.6927 CAD/QAR 2.7101 NZD/USD 0.6553 AUD/QAR 2.5225 USD/INR 69.0275 INR/QAR 0.0528 USD/TRY 6.0821 TRY/QAR 0.5987 USD/ZAR 14.4119 ZAR/QAR 0.2527 USD/BRL 4.0229 BRL/QAR 0.9052 FX Commentary The USD dollar index ended 0.25% lower to settle at 97.613 on Friday. The greenback inched lower, as the domestic nondefense capital goods orders declined in April-19, which raised concerns about the health of the US economy. The EUR advanced against the USD, after the exit polls for the Dutch part of EU parliamentary elections suggested a victory of the pro-EU Labour party. The GBP advanced against the USD, after the UK’s Prime Minister offered to resign after her failure to reach a Brexit deal. The gains were further supported by better than expected domestic retail sales data. The CAD inched higher against the USD, as a rise in oil price supported the currency. The JPY inched higher, following the release of upbeat domestic inflation data. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 2.36 2.40 2.43 2.52 2.62 (0.47) (0.38) (0.37) (0.31) (0.15) 2.47 2.52 2.64 2.84 3.32 4.0% SAIBOR NA 2.68 2.73 2.85 3.11 2.0% EIBOR 2.00 2.38 2.59 2.78 3.06 BMIBOR 2.38 2.55 2.73 2.90 3.47 NA NA 2.44 2.69 3.13 LIBOR EURIBOR QAIBOR KIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 6.0% 0.0% 4.36% 2.78% 3.03% 3.19% 3.42% 2.17% 2.12% 2.22% 2.32% 2.75% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 30 Yrs Qatar Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 4.0% US 20.0 (4.0) Turkey 521.1 134.6 UK 32.2 (4.5) Brazil 182.7 (29.7) Germany 13.1 (2.0) Egypt 339.5 (31.4) France 31.4 (3.2) Abu Dhabi Italy 216.6 (32.6) Greece 357.0 Russia 128.5 Japan 24.2 5.0 2.71% 2.91% 2.87% 2.97% 2.0% 2.20% 2.12% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 2.17% 2.26% 3.00% 2.47% 0.0% 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change 64.9 (6.5) Bahrain 285.5 (22.7) (114.1) Dubai 149.4 17.9 (39.2) Qatar 70.7 (7.8) Saudi Arabia 93.7 (6.1) Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event 17:00 Canada Bloomberg Nanos Confidence 2:50 Japan PPI Services YoY Period Survey May-24th -- Prior 55.1 Apr 1.10% 1.10% Source: Bloomberg 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE May 27 , 2019 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing Qatar First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Investment Holding Industries Qatar Mesaieed QAMCO Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Alkhaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.3 3.5 0.0 4.5 0.0 6.6 5.9 6.6 0.0 3.4 6.2 3.6 5.4 3.9 4.8 5.3 6.1 8.3 3.9 0.0 0.0 7.9 7.1 4.5 7.6 0.0 4.7 5.4 2.8 N/A (‫)غ‬ 4.8 3.4 6.5 8.1 4.5 3.3 7.3 4.2 2.5 6.6 4.0 7.6 0.0 6.5 7.3 3.5 4.1 3.5 3.9 4.2 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.1 P/B Ratio (x) 1.2 1.1 1.2 0.8 0.8 0.7 2.1 0.5 0.8 2.4 1.8 2.4 0.6 1.9 0.8 1.7 2.2 0.8 2.7 1.6 0.4 3.3 1.1 1.9 0.6 1.0 0.6 2.1 2.5 N/A (‫)غ‬ 1.9 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.9 0.7 0.5 1.5 0.6 2.4 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.4 1.0 1.7 1.3 0.5 0.9 1.5 P/E Ratio (x) 9.7 10.3 (M) (‫)س‬ 9.1 (H) (‫)م‬ 6.6 11.9 36.7 (M) (‫)س‬ 12.5 11.0 11.1 75.0 11.3 5.2 19.0 15.3 12.8 17.0 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 9.5 8.1 14.6 11.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 7.5 15.1 26.9 N/A (‫)غ‬ 12.2 16.0 10.0 12.5 17.3 13.3 11.0 16.7 16.8 12.3 16.1 6.7 35.2 41.0 10.6 13.2 13.2 41.8 15.7 11.1 12.4 13.2 12.4 13.2 EPS (QR) 2.9 4.2 (M) (‫)س‬ 2.4 0.0 1.7 2.9 0.2 (M) (‫)س‬ 11.9 5.9 15.1 0.1 6.3 8.0 3.0 9.2 1.4 11.9 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 6.0 14.9 5.7 0.7 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.7 7.3 1.1 N/A (‫)غ‬ 13.2 1.4 3.9 5.0 2.3 1.1 1.0 2.1 2.4 4.3 2.1 5.0 0.2 0.2 1.3 0.9 4.7 0.2 1.4 4.1 1.6 4.7 2.3 3.0 BV/Share (QR) 23.6 39.2 7.6 28.7 24.1 15.3 16.4 14.0 5.0 63.1 35.9 69.8 9.2 36.7 56.2 34.0 64.1 23.3 75.9 3.3 10.0 17.2 110.1 43.5 12.9 19.2 9.6 53.7 11.4 N/A (‫)غ‬ 86.7 21.9 32.4 45.2 20.7 20.4 20.9 24.1 72.4 22.2 31.9 48.3 11.9 12.8 30.1 17.8 67.6 5.2 22.4 27.5 15.7 123.9 33.7 26.2 Stock Price (QR) 28.0 43.1 9.2 22.2 20.2 11.4 34.1 7.6 4.1 149.0 65.0 166.8 5.6 42.0 57.1 140.0 18.1 203.0 5.3 4.0 57.0 120.2 7.9 18.7 5.4 110.5 28.2 10.0 160.6 22.1 38.5 61.8 15.0 11.0 34.9 40.6 52.9 33.0 8.0 7.7 13.6 61.7 7.1 45.8 20.3 61.5 - Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫ا س ت ثمار ال قاب ضة‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫قامكو‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4