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GCC Daily Market Update - 25 January

IM Insights
By IM Insights
3 years ago
GCC Daily Market Update - 25 January

Takaful, Sales


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  1. January 25 , 2021 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) MSCI GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 3,841.5 30,997.0 13,366.4 6,695.1 13,874.0 5,559.6 1,542.5 28,631.5 29,447.9 3,606.8 48,878.5 (11.6) (179.0) (38.6) (20.4) (32.7) (31.2) (9.1) (125.4) (479.9) (14.5) (746.2) (0.3) (0.6) (0.3) (0.3) (0.2) (0.6) (0.6) (0.4) (1.6) (0.4) (1.5) 2.3 1.3 3.7 3.6 1.1 0.1 4.5 4.3 8.1 3.8 2.4 2.3 1.3 3.7 3.6 1.1 0.1 4.5 4.3 8.1 3.8 2.4 10,706.9 8,829.5 5,613.2 2,715.9 5,714.5 3,730.4 1,453.7 566.0 5,643.9 (29.5) (47.0) 1.9 (19.7) 27.3 (17.1) 1.0 (2.6) 0.3 (0.3) (0.5) 0.0 (0.7) 0.5 (0.5) 0.1 (0.5) 0.0 2.6 1.6 11.3 9.0 3.0 2.0 (2.4) 3.1 3.6 2.6 1.6 11.3 9.0 3.0 2.0 (2.4) 3.1 3.8 55.4 52.3 2.4 1,856.2 362.6 (0.7) (0.9) (0.0) (9.7) (2.2) (1.2) (1.6) (1.8) (0.5) (0.6) 6.8 7.6 (0.4) (2.1) 3.2 6.8 7.6 (0.4) (2.1) 3.2 Source: Bloomberg Global The US equity markets ended lower on Friday, as President Joe Biden’s proposed new fiscal stimulus ran into opposition in the Senate. Weak economic data and underwhelming earnings domestically also weighed on the markets. The S&P 500 ended lower by 0.3%, as losses in Financial and Industrial stocks weighed on the index. The European markets ended lower on Friday, as business activity in the Euro-zone decreased in January-21 after strict lockdown measures to contain COVID-19 cases. Uncertainty over the US fiscal stimulus also weighed on the markets. The Stoxx Europe 600 decreased by 0.6% to end at 408.5. Energy stocks were the notable sector losers. In Asia, the Nikkei index decreased on Friday, as investors refused to make big bets ahead of the earnings seasons. Some investors also engaged in profit taking after a rally which was driven by the hopes of a large US stimulus which weighed on the index. GCC Most GCC markets ended on a negative note yesterday. The Saudi Arabian index decreased by 0.5% driven by losses in Insurance and Consumer Service stocks. Dubai’s index decreased by 0.7%, as losses in Transportation and Real Estate & Construction stocks weighed on the index. Abu Dhabi index remained relatively flat, as gains in Service stocks were off set with losses in Real Estate stocks. The Bahraini Index increased by 0.1%, due to gains in Banking and Service stocks. Qatar The Qatari index decreased by 0.3% yesterday. Selling pressure on part of domestic retail & institutional investors weighed on the index. Trade turnover and volumes decreased with Real Estate, Banking & Financial Service and Industrial sectors together accounting for 77.3% of the total traded volumes. Out of the 48 stocks, 46 exchanged hands, 20 declined, 22 advanced and 4 remained unchanged. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 18.9 1.5 3.6 122.4 DSM 20 18.3 1.5 3.7 47.7 10,600 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 34.7 2.1 2.4 1,538.0 10,200 UAE (ADX) 22.5 1.6 4.4 94.7 9,800 UAE (DFM) 12.9 0.9 3.6 72.3 9,400 28-Oct GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Kuwait (KSE) 36.5 1.4 3.4 132.0 Oman (MSM) 13.5 0.7 6.7 2.1 Bahrain (BAX) 14.1 1.0 4.6 12.6 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Al Khaleej Takaful Inma Holding Company Mazaya Real Estate Qatar Islamic Insurance Aamal Co Top Losers Dlala Holding Qatar National Cement Qatar Industrial Gulf International Qatar First Bank Close Price 2.4 5.6 1.3 7.1 0.9 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 10.0 6.4 2.4 1.7 1.4 27.1 9.5 4.2 3.2 2.0 23.7 197.9 71.6 3.3 7.9 2.0 4.1 3.1 1.7 1.8 (0.1) (0.1) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (3.6) (2.4) (1.5) (1.2) (1.0) 8.6 (1.3) (3.7) (3.8) 5.6 233.3 8,782.5 NA (26.3) 384.4 22.1 (13.2) 68.4 17.9 1.9 8,684.7 NA 83.7 14,736.5 NA Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 5,873.4 20.7 10,324.1 NA 46,938.0 NA 5.3 14.9 3,777.5 35.3 Qatar DSM Index 11,000 400.0 10,706.9 200.0 0.0 11-Nov 25-Nov 9-Dec Index Volume (mn) 23-Dec 6-Jan Index Value 20-Jan Source: Bloomberg QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation Closing Level 4,270.0 8,223.6 3,259.2 2,517.0 1,950.4 1,121.2 3,579.7 1D Change (%) (0.5) 0.4 (0.5) 0.7 0.4 (0.2) (0.1) Buy (%) 55.4 14.6 70.0 19.9 10.1 30.0 Sell (%) 61.5 14.7 76.2 19.1 4.7 23.8 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
  2. January 25 , 2021 GLOBAL NEWS  According to Saudi Arabia’s state media, the nation’s King appointed Fahad al-Mubarak as the Governor of Central Bank. (Source: Reuters)  S&P Global Ratings has revised Saudi Arabia-based Walaa Cooperative Insurance Company’s rating upwards from (BBB+) to (A-) with a “Stable” outlook, driven by successful integration with MetLife AIG ANB Insurance Company without undergoing any capital or earnings volatility. (Source: Mubasher)  According to the White House, the US President Joe Biden told his Mexican counterpart that the nation plans to reverse the Trump administration’s immigration style while working on policies addressing the reasons of migration. (Source: First Post)  The US President’s administration denied the request of Republicans to reduce the pandemic relief proposal worth USD 1.9tn on the basis of it being too expensive. (Source: Reuters)  The House of Commons’ Environmental Audit Committee of the UK has asked the Bank of England to reduce buying corporate bonds of companies whose activities accelerate global warming. The bank had doubled its corporate bonds holdings to GBP 20.0bn (USD 27.0bn) in 2020. (Source: Reuters) Saudi Arabia-based Almarai Company reported a 10.4% YoY increase in FY-20 net profit to SAR 2.0mn (USD 0.5mn) driven mainly by Foods, Long-life Dairy and Poultry. The revenue increased by 7.0% YoY to SAR 15.4bn (USD 4.1bn). (Source: Tadawul)  According to Oman News Agency, the nation has announced to extend the land border closure by one more week in order to curb the spread of coronavirus cases. (Source: Reuters)  The Labour Ministry of Oman has announced to bar the expatriates from jobs in certain sectors including insurance, finance commercial and administrative sectors to raise employment of the citizens during the COVID-19 pandemic. The work permits of the expatriates in those jobs won’t be renewed after the expiry date. (Source: Economic Times)  Oman reported an increase of 14.0% YoY in number of SMEs registered in 2020 to 48,669 by the end of December-20, according to National Center of Statistics and Information (NCSI). (Source: Xinhua Net)  The Chairman of the Real Estate Regulatory Authority of Bahrain announced that the nation’s real estate transactions declined by 11.0% YoY to BHD 717.4mn (USD 1.9bn) in 2020. However, in H2-20, the transactions had improved by 14.0% and 20.0% in Q3-20 and Q420, respectively. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Bahrain-GCC trade reached USD 5.7bn in 2020 which accounted for 25.0% of Bahrain’s global bilateral trade of USD 20.8bn for the year. The nation’s Information and eGovernment Authority reported 12.0% rise in national origin exports due to flourishing manufacturing sector in Q4-20. (Source: Zawya)  The CEO of Bahrain-based Gulf Air has announced that the company has asked US-based Boeing and Europe-based Airbus to reschedule the deliveries of Boeing’s five 787-9 Dreamliners and put Airbus A320neo deliveries on hold until 2022, respectively. (Source: Reuters) As per sources, Kuwait has reduced the number of daily overseas airline passenger arrivals by 80% to 1,000 from 24th January-21 to 6th February-21 in order to curb the spread of new coronavirus variant.   The European Council President, Charles Michel said the European Union will see that pharmaceutical companies adhere to contracts they have signed for the supply of COVID-19 vaccines. This will not result in sanction but providing reasons for the delays. (Source: Reuters)  According to China General Chamber of Commerce report, the nation's consumption will witness a quick recovery in 2021 on the back of a strengthening economy and pro-consumption measures. The nation’s retail sales growth of consumer goods is anticipated to exceed 10.0% in 2021 after a decline of 3.9% in 2020. (Source: Global Times)  According to United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, China attracted largest foreign direct investment worth USD 1630bn in 2020. (Source: Reuters) GCC NEWS  The UAE’s Vice President said that the nation’s cabinet has given approval to a public debt strategy targeted at developing the nation’s market for local currency bonds. The objective is to prepare a bond market in the local currency and stimulate the nation’s financial and banking sector. (Source: Reuters)  The UAE’s cabinet has announce to approve the establishment of an embassy in Tel Aviv in Israel. Also, the latter nation announced the official launch of its embassy in Abu Dhabi. (Source: Reuters)  According to Dubai Chamber, the UAE’s non-oil trade is expected to show double-digit growth of up to 12.9% in 2021 due to an expected increase in maritime transport activity and other positive global economic trends. (Source: Khaleej Times)   The CEO of Mohammed bin Rashid Aerospace Hub (MBRAH), at Dubai South announced that the movement of private jets increased by 21.0% YoY in 2020 driven by 78.0% YoY growth in number of movements in Q4-20, indicating Dubai’s status as a favored destination for tourists. (Source: Emirates News Agency)  As per Kuwait News Agency, the nation’s Emir has reappointed Sheikh Sabah al-Khalid al-Sabah as the Prime Minister. (Source: Reuters)  According to Kuwait News Agency, the Central Bank of Kuwait announced that the nation’s banks which showed strength, strong capital adequacy and didn’t use provisions in 2020 would be allowed to distribute dividends for the year 2020. (Source: Bloomberg Quint)    Abu Dhabi-based Mubadala Petroleum Company has entered into an agreement with Egypt to explore for oil and gas in a 3,084 square kilometer area in Sector 4, located in the north of the Red Sea. The company will own 27.0%, Shell (63.0%) and Egypt’s Tharwa Petroleum Company will own rest 10.0%. (Source: Arab News) According to the Follow-Up Committee of the Initiatives of the UAE President, the infrastructure works on residential project for Emiratis worth AED 400.0mn (USD 108.9mn) has been completed in Sharjah. It will feature 323 houses covering an area of 407,880 square metres in the emirate's "Al Suyoh 16" area. (Source: Emirates News Agency) The Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia has said that the nation’s Public Investment Fund plans to double its assets to SAR 4.0tn (USD 1.1tn) by 2025 and SAR 7.5tn (USD 2.0tn) by 2030. The fund would aim to create 1.8mn jobs by 2025 and boost the domestic economy by infusing SAR 150.0bn (USD 40.0bn) annually. (Source: Reuters) (Source: Reuters) QATAR NEWS  The Public Works Authority of Qatar, announced the commencement of works on the Roads and Infrastructure Project worth QAR 514.9mn (USD 141.5mn) in the nation’s South Al Mashaf. The project is aimed to be completed by Q4-23 and serve 1,360 residential plots. (Source: Reuters)  According to Mwani Qatar, the nation’s share in the overall Middle East trade is expected to significantly increase due to strong technological infrastructure supporting the Hamad Port's second container terminal which spreads over an area of 403,500 sqm. (Source: Gulf Times) 2
  3. January 25 , 2021 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.2201 USD/QAR 3.6415 103.7800 EUR/QAR 4.4430 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.3716 JPY/QAR 0.0351 USD/CHF 0.8856 GBP/QAR 4.9947 USD/CAD 1.2733 CHF/QAR 4.1119 AUD/USD 0.7715 CAD/QAR 2.8599 NZD/USD 0.7189 AUD/QAR 2.8094 USD/INR 72.4763 INR/QAR 0.0502 USD/TRY 7.4170 TRY/QAR 0.4910 USD/ZAR 15.1476 ZAR/QAR 0.2404 USD/BRL 5.4705 BRL/QAR 0.6657 FX Commentary The USD increased against the basket of major currencies on Friday, with the dollar index settling higher by 0.1% to end at 90.2. The dollar strengthened, as weak economic data and worse than expected earnings drove investors to reverse some risky bets. The EUR remained flat against the dollar, despite economic activity shrinking in January-21 due to strict lockdowns in order to contain the spread of COVID-19. The GBP decreased against the dollar, as retail sales for 2020 decreased by 1.9% YoY. The CAD decreased against the dollar, as resurgence of COVID-19 in China weighed on oil prices. The AUD decreased against the USD, after the release of weaker than expected retail sales data for December-20. The TRY decreased, due to the central bank sounding hawkish about more rate hikes even while it held policy steady. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.09 0.10 0.12 0.22 0.31 (0.59) (0.56) (0.56) (0.54) (0.50) QAIBOR 0.96 0.99 1.02 1.13 1.35 2.0% SAIBOR 0.55 0.59 0.65 0.82 0.94 1.0% LIBOR EURIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year EIBOR 0.11 0.14 0.22 0.35 0.50 BMIBOR 0.65 0.85 1.77 1.90 2.27 KIBOR 0.63 0.94 1.19 1.44 2.00 Source: Bloomberg 1.55% 0.0% 1.78% 1.33% 0.94% 1.85% 0.46% 0.12% 0.43% 2 Yrs 5 Years CDS 1.63% 1.55% 1.51% 1.82% 1.61% 1.0% 5 Yrs Qatar 1.09% 0.76% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 30 Yrs 0.53% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Current 7 Yrs 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change 15.7 (7.8) Turkey 332.5 UK 20.0 (5.8) Brazil 175.4 (46.0) Germany 12.8 (1.0) Egypt 332.1 (117.0) (243.6) Abu Dhabi 18.1 (3.4) 46.8 (9.5) 108.9 (45.5) Bahrain 250.6 (74.1) Greece 99.9 (65.2) Dubai 123.4 (64.0) Russia 98.0 (9.2) Qatar 46.8 (8.1) Japan 16.1 (4.2) Saudi Arabia 71.6 (22.4) Italy 0.81% Spreads 6M Change US France 1.12% 0.20% 0.0% 2.96% 3.0% Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 2.0% Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 7:00 Japan Tokyo Condominiums for Sale YoY 12:00 Germany IFO Business Climate Dec -- (15.30%) Jan 91.4 12:00 Germany 92.1 IFO Expectations Jan 93.6 12:00 92.8 Germany IFO Current Assessment Jan 90.6 91.3 16:30 US Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Dec 0.1 0.27 18:30 US Dallas Fed Manf. Activity Jan 12 9.7 19:00 Russia Industrial Production YoY Dec (3.00%) (2.60%) Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) 15,213.0 0.1 0.0 2,683.0 0.2 (0.0) 3,819.6 0.0 (0.0) 335.9 0.1 (0.5) Sabic Agri-Nutrients Co NA NA NA 233.6 (0.3) (0.4) Saudi Kayan Petrochemical Co NA NA NA 158.4 (1.9) (6.6) 561.3 0.2 0.1 74.5 0.2 0.1 NA NA NA 52.4 (0.6) (0.5) Saudi Telecom Co Almarai Co Saudia Dairy & Foodstuff Co Sharjah Islamic Bank Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
  4. January 25 , 2021 st QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS (as of 21 January 2021) Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing Qatar First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Baladna Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Investment Holding Industries Qatar Mesaieed QAMCO Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Alkhaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 4.0 4.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.6 3.9 4.0 0.0 2.3 4.7 2.5 2.3 2.8 1.2 6.7 3.2 4.2 2.6 4.2 0.0 0.0 4.8 5.7 4.0 4.7 0.0 0.0 3.3 3.4 0.1 4.2 3.0 4.8 7.2 3.4 2.3 5.2 6.0 0.0 5.4 4.7 5.9 0.0 0.0 3.0 1.4 3.0 3.5 3.1 3.9 2.9 3.9 3.3 2.9 P/B Ratio (x) 1.4 1.0 2.8 0.8 2.1 1.2 2.3 0.9 2.7 2.2 2.2 2.2 0.9 1.9 1.5 0.7 2.5 2.8 1.8 2.3 12.4 0.5 2.7 2.4 1.9 0.1 0.9 0.6 2.2 1.7 1.0 2.2 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.5 2.8 0.8 0.7 1.5 1.2 0.6 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.7 2.0 0.6 1.2 1.3 P/E Ratio (x) 12.9 10.7 (M) (‫)س‬ 10.4 54.7 10.9 15.2 32.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 13.2 14.6 14.0 21.5 13.8 29.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 29.4 20.3 53.2 24.4 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 14.2 17.6 29.5 34.7 53.7 10.0 49.0 25.0 (H) (‫)م‬ 13.4 28.4 18.7 22.2 30.6 18.8 14.3 (H) (‫)م‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 14.7 15.4 9.3 (H) (‫)م‬ 49.9 29.7 40.6 14.0 37.8 15.9 12.8 16.4 17.4 16.2 18.2 EPS (QR) 0.3 0.4 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.3 0.6 1.3 0.0 0.6 0.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.3 1.0 0.1 0.8 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 0.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.3 BV/Share (QR) 2.8 4.4 0.7 3.2 2.5 1.7 1.9 1.4 0.7 7.8 4.1 8.2 1.0 4.4 1.2 4.5 3.5 7.5 2.2 8.3 0.3 1.4 2.3 6.2 3.3 12.4 1.9 1.0 5.4 1.2 1.0 8.5 2.3 3.3 4.5 4.2 2.1 2.1 3.0 5.7 2.5 3.3 5.1 1.2 1.1 3.1 1.8 7.2 1.1 3.7 3.2 1.8 12.3 3.5 3.5 Stock Price (QR) 3.8 4.4 2.0 2.4 5.3 2.1 4.4 1.3 1.8 17.1 9.0 18.3 0.9 1.7 3.0 8.8 20.5 3.9 19.0 3.2 0.7 6.2 15.0 0.9 1.7 0.6 12.1 2.1 1.0 18.3 1.8 3.1 4.2 2.2 1.5 2.5 2.6 7.0 3.4 1.8 1.3 1.7 8.4 1.5 5.2 3.5 7.8 - Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫ا س ت ثمار ال قاب ضة‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫قامكو‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above-mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4