GCC Daily Market Update - 2 June

Transcription

1. June 2 , 2020 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) MSCI GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 3,055.7 25,475.0 9,598.9 6,166.4 11,586.9 4,762.8 107,266.2 22,062.4 23,732.5 2,915.4 33,303.5 11.4 91.9 43.4 89.8 NA 67.3 1,745.7 184.5 771.1 63.1 879.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 1.5 NA 1.4 1.7 0.8 3.4 2.2 2.7 0.4 0.4 0.5 1.5 6.7 1.4 1.7 0.8 3.4 2.2 2.7 (5.4) (10.7) 9.9 (18.2) (12.5) (20.3) (6.3) (6.7) (15.8) (4.4) (19.3) 9,019.7 7,288.8 4,170.7 1,973.7 5,006.6 3,534.9 1,269.9 478.7 4,270.4 174.9 75.8 29.1 28.6 11.0 (9.7) 0.2 6.5 26.5 2.0 1.1 0.7 1.5 0.2 (0.3) 0.0 1.4 0.6 2.0 1.1 0.7 1.5 0.2 (0.3) 0.0 1.4 0.6 (13.5) (13.1) (17.8) (28.6) (20.3) (11.2) (21.1) (16.0) (0.6) 38.3 35.4 1.8 1,737.8 247.1 3.0 (0.1) (0.1) 0.9 4.5 8.5 (0.1) (4.1) 0.1 1.9 9.5 0.6 (3.6) 0.1 1.6 (41.4) (41.5) (18.6) 14.1 (11.9) Global The US markets started the month on a positive note, as optimism surrounding the re-opening of the economies helped in offsetting the reports about the protests in some parts of the nation. The S&P 500 index increased 0.4%, amid across sectors, except the Healthcare. The Stoxx Europe 600 index increased 1.1% to settle at 354.2, on account of optimism of economic recovery in the region. Cyclical shares including, Mining, Travel and Energy reported notable gains. Investor optimism was also fueled after the US President refrained from tweaking any aspects of the trade deal with China, in light of new round of tensions. The Nikkei index climbed 0.8%, as investors priced-in the reports that more businesses would be opened in Tokyo in the upcoming days. GCC Easing lockdown restriction across regional and global economies, supported GCC markets yesterday. Dubai’s benchmark increased 1.5%, amidst gains in Banking and Transportation shares. The Saudi Arabian benchmark climbed 1.1%, on the back of increased buying support in indexheavyweights National Commercial Bank and SABIC. Abu Dhabi’s benchmark increased 0.7%, as Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank and Etisalat reported gains. Qatar The QE index climbed 2.0% yesterday, outperforming its regional peers. The index settled above the psychological 9,000 mark. Increased buying support on the part of foreign institutional investors supported the benchmark. Trade turnover and volumes increased on the bourse, with the Industrials, Realty and Banking sectors together accounting for 78% of the total trading volume. Ooredoo advanced by 10%, after announcing to pay interests on its global medium term loan on 22nd June-20. Out of the 47 listed shares, 43 exchanged hands, 30 advanced, 12 declined and 1 remained unchanged. Source: Bloomberg QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW GCC Fundamentals Qatar All share P/E (x) P/B (x) 14.9 1.4 Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) 4.2 137.5 Qatar DSM Index 9,400 400.0 9,019.7 9,050 DSM 20 14.2 1.4 4.4 127.7 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 22.1 1.8 3.5 1,758.2 UAE (ADX) 12.9 1.2 6.1 53.8 UAE (DFM) 7.7 0.7 4.9 49.8 Kuwait (KSE) 14.3 1.1 4.2 78.3 Oman (MSM) 9.1 0.8 6.8 2.2 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 9.0 0.8 5.5 1.9 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Ooredoo Commercial Bank Ezdan Holding Group Qatar Fuel United Development Top Losers Dlala Holding Qatar Insurance Co Qatar German Co Medicare Group Al Khaleej Takaful Grp Close Price 6.9 3.9 0.8 16.7 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.6 0.0 10.0 4.6 4.5 3.8 3.8 (2.7) (17.7) 31.4 (26.9) (20.1) 7.4 (14.9) 8.7 (17.7) (11.9) 1,705.3 13.1 5,211.7 9.0 31,559.6 NA 1,324.0 14.9 9,046.6 17.8 0.7 2.0 1.1 6.7 1.9 (0.0) (0.1) (0.0) (0.1) (0.0) (5.1) (3.6) (2.6) (2.1) (2.1) 16.2 (35.9) 80.4 (20.7) (6.0) (21.3) (42.1) 101.9 11.9 16.4 1,790.1 NA 15,543.6 67.3 3,722.3 NA 443.9 26.5 1,105.2 15.2 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 8,700 200.0 8,350 8,000 5/Mar 0.0 19/Mar 2/Apr 16/Apr Index Volume (mn) 30/Apr 14/May 28/May Index Value Closing Level 3,905.7 7,293.4 2,501.1 2,027.0 1,388.4 893.1 2,608.0 1D Change (%) 1.8 2.4 2.1 (2.5) 1.4 8.2 0.7 Buy (%) 22.1 16.8 38.9 8.8 52.3 61.1 Sell (%) 32.8 24.0 56.8 10.0 33.2 43.2 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. June 2 , 2020 groundwork for the effective implementation of the company’s medium-term growth strategy. (Source: Emirates News Agency) GLOBAL NEWS  The US Senate Majority Leader, Mitch McConnell said that he is hopeful that the Senate would quickly pass legislation which is previously passed by the House of Representatives, easing terms of the coronavirus small-business loan program. (Source: Reuters)  The UK is likely to show its readiness to compromise on fisheries and trade rules if the European Union approves to do away from its extreme demand related to regulatory alignment and fishing access, according to the Times newspaper. (Source: The New York Times)  Sharjah Economic Development Department announced that it has finished 37,444 transactions and issued 9,000 licences through service centres and digital services during March-20 to May-20. The licenses comprised of 497 new licences, 7,435 renewed and 1,068 amended. (Source: Emirates News Agency)  The government of Sharjah stated that it has raised AED 2.0bn (USD 0.5bn) through Islamic bonds (sukuk) to back its economy, corporates, SMEs, individuals and banking sector amid the coronavirus pandemic. Bank of Sharjah acted as sole lead manager and arranger for the issuance. The certificates will pay a profit rate of 1.5% and have maturity in May-21. (Source: Khaleej Times)  Saudi Arabia’s central bank announced offering SAR 50.0bn (USD 13.3bn) liquidity support in the banking sector, after consumer spending declined by 35.0% YoY in April-20 on account of the coronavirus pandemic. Consumer spending declined with point-ofsale transactions reducing by 33.0% YoY and cash withdrawals by 35.0% YoY. (Source: Reuters) (Source: Nasdaq)   China has directed state-owned companies to stop purchase of soybeans and pork from the US, after the latter said it would remove special treatment for Hong Kong, as per two people familiar with the matter. (Source: CNBC) Saudi Arabia-based National Commercial Bank announced plans to issue a Saudi Riyal-denominated Additional Tier 1 Sukuk through private placement. The funds will be used to strengthen the bank’s capital base as per Basel III rules. (Source: Salaam Gateway)   Moody's Investors Service downgraded India's long-term issuer ratings to Baa3 from Baa2 and its short-term local-currency rating to P-3 from P-2, with “Negative” outlook. The ratings reflects the agency’s opinion that the nation will have difficulty in executing policies to mitigate the risks of a continued period of relatively low growth, substantial further deterioration in the general government fiscal position and pressure in the financial sector. (Source: Moody’s) Saudi Arabia-based Al Murjan Group has signed an agreement with Mediclinic Middle East to build a 200-bed hospital on a 80,000 sq m area in Jeddah city at a cost of SAR 1.0bn (USD 266.0mn) and which is expected to start in Q2-22. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Oman’s producer price index (PPI)-based inflation declined by 5.7% YoY in Q1-20, as per National Centre for Statistics and Information. The decline was driven by 6.3% YoY decline in price of oil and gas category and 3.0% YoY in prices of non-oil products. (Source: Times of Oman)  Bahrain’s trade balance deficit improved by 21.9% YoY to BHD 139.0mn (USD 366.1mn) during April-20, according to Information & eGovernment Authority (iGA). The nation’s value of imports decreased 19.2% YoY to BHD 362.0mn (USD 953.5mn). (Source: Trade Arabia)  Bahrain’s cost of services and products is forecasted to increase by at least 35.0% YoY before the end of 2020 due to the impact of Coronavirus pandemic, according to the Chairman of parliament’s financial and economic affairs committee working on the revised market, operations, employment and potential lifestyle. (Source: Zawya)  Bahrain-based Investcorp announced that its Credit Management business closed the Mount Row (Levered) Credit Fund with capital commitments worth EUR 318.0mn (USD 353.0mn), more than its target of USD 300.0mn. The Fund targets biggest and most liquid European issuers having average EBITDA of over EUR 200.0mn (USD 222.5mn) per annum. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Japan’s Prime Minister said that the government will submit a second additional budget to parliament early next week, to finance the new USD 1.1tn stimulus package to mitigate the economic impact from the coronavirus pandemic. (Source: The New York Times)  China’s central bank will begin purchasing bank loans made by local banks to small firms this week to support banks to lend upto CNY 1.0tn (USD 140.2bn) to small businesses amid the coronavirus pandemic. The central bank will utilize special relending quota worth CNY 400.0bn (USD 56.0bn) to purchase the loans, on a quarterly basis. GCC NEWS   S&P Global Ratings said that GCC nations can maintain their currency pegs as all have adequate access to foreign currency assets to meet burdens on their exchange rates, despite the low oil prices and the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. (Source: Qatar Tribune) According to Aberdeen Standard Investments (ASI), the performance of environmental, social and governance (ESG) funds in the Coronavirus pandemic and their association with GCC government visions are making them a convincing choice for investors in the Middle East. Companies with better ESG ratings have outperformed the wider market. (Source: Trade Arabia)  As per Property Monitor, Dubai property prices increased by 0.5% MoM to AED 866.0 (USD 235.7) per square foot in April-20. Volume of transactions however declined by 47.0% MoM to 1,825 as mobility limits impacted financing and purchase decisions. (Source: Arabian Business)  The President of Dubai-based Emirates airline said that he expects the carrier will begin returning to economic normality in terms of passenger travel by mid-21. However, returning to pre-Covid business levels is likely to happen as far in 2023 or even 2024. He expects that the aviation sector will depend more on vaccine being invented for the Coronavirus. (Source: Arabian Business)   Dubai-based Emirates airline announced that it is ready to expand its network to 50 destinations in June-20 as additional nations have eased travel restrictions. (Source: Zawya) Ras Al Khaimah-based Gulf Pharmaceutical Industries (Julphar) launched its AED 500.0mn (USD 136.1mn) rights issue to enhance the company’s capital position and debt profile and create the financial QATAR NEWS  Qatar Petroleum has entered into three agreements with South Korea’s Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering, Hyundai Heavy Industries and Samsung Heavy Industries to secure over 100 ships worth over QAR 70.0bn (USD 19.2bn). The company secured ~60.0% of the global LNG shipbuilding capacity through 2027 to supply for its LNG carrier fleet requirements in the next 7-8 years. (Source: Reuters)  As per UK port data, two extra LNG tankers from Qatar are moving to the UK besides four scheduled earlier. These include Al Mayeda vessel which will arrive on 13th June-20 with a capacity of 262,000 cubic metres and Al Hamla tanker with a capacity of 212,000 cubic metres to arrive on 15th June-20. (Source: Reuters) 2
3. June 2 , 2020 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1166 USD/QAR 3.6415 107.5900 EUR/QAR 4.0661 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.2522 JPY/QAR 0.0338 USD/CHF 0.9609 GBP/QAR 4.5599 USD/CAD 1.3573 CHF/QAR 3.7897 AUD/USD 0.6798 CAD/QAR 2.6829 NZD/USD 0.6292 AUD/QAR 2.4755 USD/INR 75.0450 INR/QAR 0.0485 USD/TRY 6.8117 TRY/QAR 0.5346 USD/ZAR 17.3683 ZAR/QAR 0.2097 USD/BRL 5.3649 BRL/QAR 0.6788 FX Commentary The dollar declined against a basket of major currencies yesterday, with the dollar index settling 0.5% lower at 97.8. The dollar fell, as investors speculated that worst economic consequences following the coronavirus outbreak are almost over. The EUR increased against the USD, as recovery in the regional manufacturing PMI data for May-20 supported the common currency. The AUD strengthened against the USD, on the back of risk-on mode on the part of investors. However, lingering US-China tensions kept gains under check. The CAD climbed against the USD, on the back of better than expected Canadian manufacturing activity data. Amongst the emerging market currencies, the INR rose against the USD, as the government started providing lockdown relaxations. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.06 0.09 0.18 0.34 0.67 (0.56) (0.51) (0.48) (0.31) (0.09) QAIBOR 0.83 0.88 0.95 1.12 1.35 SAIBOR NA 0.70 0.87 1.08 1.18 EIBOR 0.20 0.30 0.48 0.80 1.21 BMIBOR 0.65 0.85 1.80 1.90 2.09 NA NA 1.50 1.69 2.19 LIBOR EURIBOR KIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Source: Bloomberg 2.03% 1.91% 1.83% 2.25% 2.0% 0.24% 0.65% 0.48% 0.35% 0.96% 2.5% 1.3% 0.16% 0.0% 0.31% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 2.55% 2.20% 1.81% 1.32% Qatar 1.45% 0.66% 0.50% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 30 Yrs 5 Yrs Current 7 Yrs 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change US 24.6 9.2 Turkey 545.2 255.6 UK 32.1 9.7 Brazil 275.6 174.0 Germany 20.5 NA Egypt 567.5 276.0 Abu Dhabi France 0.0% 2 Yrs 3.38% 3.8% 5 Years CDS 3.0% 1.0% 5.0% Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 1.87% Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 33.1 NA 98.8 61.0 Italy 195.4 69.8 Bahrain 425.7 239.5 Greece 206.9 91.9 Dubai 233.6 136.9 Russia 117.8 61.3 Qatar 98.8 60.4 Japan 24.9 2.4 142.3 83.8 Saudi Arabia Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 9:00 UK Nationwide House PX MoM May (1.00%) 0.70% 9:00 UK Nationwide House Px NSA YoY May 2.80% 3.70% 9:45 France Budget Balance YTD Apr -- (52.5b) 11:30 UK Net Consumer Credit Apr (4.5b) (3.8b) 11:30 UK Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings Apr 1.1b 4.8b 11:30 UK Mortgage Approvals Apr 24.0k 56.2k 11:30 UK Money Supply M4 MoM Apr -- 2.80% 11:30 UK M4 Money Supply YoY Apr -- 8.10% 11:30 UK M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualised Apr -- 14.00% 2:01 UK BRC Shop Price Index YoY May -- (1.70%) 3:30 Japan Jibun Bank Japan PMI Services May F -- 25.3 Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) 130.8 (5.1) (4.8) 12.0 (0.9) (67.1) NA NA NA 2.1 NA NA Gulf Medical Projects Abdul Mohsen Al-Hokair Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. June 2 , 2020 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing Qatar First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Baladna Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Investment Holding Industries Qatar Mesaieed QAMCO Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Alkhaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 4.4 5.2 5.6 5.8 7.2 3.4 5.3 3.4 3.7 3.8 1.8 6.6 4.2 4.8 3.9 4.8 5.1 5.9 4.7 6.2 5.0 3.4 0.2 5.1 3.5 5.8 7.8 4.4 2.7 7.9 7.4 6.0 5.8 7.0 4.1 2.5 3.6 4.7 3.8 3.9 4.2 5.2 4.5 4.0 P/B Ratio (x) 1.4 0.9 1.1 0.8 1.0 0.9 2.3 0.5 1.3 2.2 2.2 2.4 0.6 2.0 1.0 0.5 2.0 2.8 1.2 2.0 4.3 0.4 3.4 2.1 1.7 0.5 0.7 0.5 1.5 1.8 0.7 2.1 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.9 0.4 2.7 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.8 1.4 0.5 0.9 1.4 P/E Ratio (x) 11.7 7.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 8.5 (H) (‫)م‬ 7.4 13.4 25.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 11.9 13.1 11.3 24.3 11.4 57.0 10.5 24.0 18.3 34.0 14.9 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 13.4 16.5 18.4 13.1 52.3 7.8 23.0 28.0 (H) (‫)م‬ 11.7 15.9 11.1 15.6 20.5 15.7 11.0 33.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 13.0 (M) (‫)س‬ 8.7 (H) (‫)م‬ 19.4 14.2 21.3 13.0 30.1 14.4 12.6 12.5 12.1 12.4 14.1 EPS (QR) 0.3 0.5 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.3 0.6 1.6 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.3 0.3 1.0 0.1 1.1 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 0.4 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.5 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.3 BV/Share (QR) 2.4 4.1 0.7 2.6 2.4 1.5 1.7 1.4 0.7 6.9 3.7 7.3 0.9 3.9 1.1 5.6 3.4 6.3 2.1 8.5 0.2 0.8 1.7 6.7 3.3 1.3 1.9 1.0 5.3 1.1 1.0 7.4 2.2 3.2 4.4 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.1 5.6 2.3 2.7 5.1 1.2 1.1 3.0 1.8 6.7 1.0 3.5 2.9 1.6 11.8 3.3 2.8 Stock Price (QR) 3.3 3.9 0.7 2.1 2.5 1.3 3.9 0.7 1.0 15.4 8.0 17.5 0.5 1.2 3.0 6.7 17.6 2.6 16.7 1.1 0.3 5.9 14.4 0.6 1.4 0.5 8.0 2.1 0.7 15.2 1.6 2.6 3.8 1.9 1.0 2.0 2.1 6.3 2.9 0.8 0.7 1.2 6.9 1.1 5.2 2.4 5.8 - Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫ا س ت ثمار ال قاب ضة‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫قامكو‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above-mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4