GCC Daily Market Update - 15 October

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE October 15 , 2018 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,767.1 25,340.0 7,157.2 6,995.9 11,523.8 5,096.0 96,657.4 22,694.7 25,801.5 2,606.9 34,733.6 38.8 287.2 193.2 (11.0) (15.5) (10.4) 1,909.9 103.8 535.1 23.5 732.4 1.4 1.2 2.8 (0.2) (0.1) (0.2) 2.0 0.5 2.1 0.9 2.2 (5.0) (4.2) (6.2) (6.8) (5.9) (7.2) (3.3) (5.9) (7.2) (7.6) (4.1) 3.5 2.5 11.9 (9.0) (10.8) (4.1) (16.2) (0.3) (13.8) (21.2) 2.0 9,824.2 7,266.6 4,931.1 2,713.9 4,992.5 4,497.4 1,315.7 1,767.6 3,618.9 (37.3) (264.2) (36.6) (41.4) (73.3) 7.6 (0.3) (0.2) (0.0) (0.4) (3.5) (0.7) (1.5) (1.5) 0.2 (0.0) (0.0) 0.0 0.1 (9.2) (0.1) (4.3) (2.6) (1.0) (1.7) (0.7) (6.4) 15.3 0.6 12.1 (19.5) 3.4 (11.8) (1.2) 11.0 (0.7) 80.4 71.3 3.2 1,218.1 280.1 0.2 0.4 (0.1) (5.4) (0.3) 0.2 0.5 (1.9) (0.4) (0.1) (1.6) (1.6) 6.4 2.2 0.2 21.8 19.3 8.4 (7.0) (14.9) Global The US equity markets ended higher on Friday, as investors assessed the release of better than expected quarterly results of the domestic companies. Also, gains in Technology stocks supported the benchmarks. The Stoxx Europe 600 index dropped 0.2%, with all major sectors closing lower, due to concerns about the rising US bond yields. Also, losses in Technology and Basic resources sectors weighed on the benchmark. The UK’s benchmark declined 0.2%, on the back of losses in Mining shares. In Asia, the Japanese benchmark ended higher on Friday, due to increase buying activity by foreign investors. The Chinese benchmark also ended higher, as bargain hunting on the part of investors and better than expected domestic export data supported the index. GCC Most GCC equity markets ended lower yesterday. The Saudi Arabian index plunged 3.5%, due to the heavy selling activity, as investors remained jittery about the nation’s worsening relations with the international community after the disappearance of a local journalist Jamal Khashoggi. In Dubai, the benchmark fell by 1.5%, due to losses in Banks and Real Estate shares. The Abu Dhabi index inched 0.7% lower, due to weakness in Bank and energy stocks. ADNOC Distribution declined 3.5%, despite the shareholders approving dividend distribution of AED 0.06 per share. In Oman, the benchmark ended 0.2% higher after HSBC Oman reported a rise in its 9M18 profit. In Kuwait, the market fell by 1.9%, due to losses in Banking stocks. Qatar The QE index ended 0.3% lower yesterday. Increased selling activity on the part of domestic individuals and institutional investors weighed on the index. Trade turnover and volume declined, with Banking and Industrial and real Estate sector together accounting for about 82.7% of the total trading volume. Out of the total 45 listed stocks, 43 exchanged hands, 7 advanced, 28 declined and 5 remained unchanged. Source: Bloomberg QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 15.0 1.4 4.1 21.3 DSM 20 15.2 1.5 4.5 19.8 GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Qatar DSM Index 10,200 9,950 15.3 1.6 3.8 1,783.6 UAE (ADX) 13.0 1.5 4.9 20.5 9,450 UAE (DFM) 7.2 1.0 6.2 61.7 9,200 18-Jul 14.6 1.3 4.0 84.0 Oman (MSM) 10.8 0.8 6.1 2.1 Bahrain (BAX) 8.9 0.8 6.2 2.1 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Salam International Inv Qatar German Co Qatar Islamic Insurance Barwa Real Estate Co Qatari Investors Group Top Losers National Leasing Zad Holding Co Qatar Industrial Manuf Qatar Navigation United Development Close Price 4.9 4.9 51.9 36.7 29.8 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 1.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.2 (28.3) (24.8) (5.5) 14.7 (18.6) (38.5) (33.5) 2.8 17.3 (12.4) 0.0 NA 26.6 NA 1.7 11.6 210.0 9.0 9.0 15.6 8.5 99.0 42.2 66.9 13.9 (0.3) (2.0) (0.8) (1.1) (0.2) (2.9) (2.0) (2.0) (1.6) (1.6) (21.1) 34.5 (3.5) 19.6 (3.7) (25.3) 53.4 (1.7) 21.9 (0.1) 24.3 2.4 5.6 25.3 147.7 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 25.9 12.1 10.0 15.2 9.5 10.0 9,700 Saudi Arabia (TASI) Kuwait (KSE) 15.0 9,824.2 5.0 0.0 1-Aug 15-Aug 29-Aug Index Volume (mn) 12-Sep 26-Sep 10-Oct Index Value Source: Bloomberg QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation Closing Level 3,510.7 6,872.2 3,244.3 3,113.3 1,832.9 956.8 2,052.4 1D Change (%) (0.6) (0.3) (0.2) (0.1) (0.7) (0.9) (0.8) Buy (%) 45.1 16.5 61.6 16.3 22.1 38.4 Sell (%) 46.9 22.0 68.9 10.7 20.4 31.1 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE October 15 , 2018 GLOBAL NEWS  The European Central Bank policymaker, Francois Villeroy de Galhau stated that the central bank should keep its policy options open and not let itself be influenced by the Federal Reserve. (Source: Reuters)  Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney stressed the need for investment flows to remain open referring to his previous statement about the US protectionism. (Source: Bloomberg)  China central bank Governor stated that there are more opportunities for adjustment in interest rates and the reserve requirement ratio due to higher downside risks from trade tensions with US. (Source: Reuters)  Bank of Japan Governor stated that the central bank will signal the beginning of an exit from its massive monetary stimulus with changes in interest rates and its main policy target, once the nation reaches its 2.0% inflation target. (Source: Reuters)  Turkey will open service offices to ease citizenship or long-term residence permit procedures for foreign investors, according to Turkey’s Ministry of Interior. (Source: Anadolu Agency)  Arabian Business)  Saudi Arabia’s construction sector is expected to witness launch of over 700 new projects in coming month to be completed by 2022, according to head of marketing, Riyadh Exhibition Company. He further added that value of the nation’s current construction projects have rose to USD 284.3bn. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Omani refineries’ production of regular grade petrol (M-91) rose 38.0% YoY to 9.27mn barrels during the period January to August-18, supported by a significant growth in demand, according to National Centre for Statistics and Information (NCSI). (Source: Muscat Daily)  Oman-based Bank Muscat recorded a 3.4% YoY increase in its net profit to OMR 134.7mn (USD 350.3mn) for 9M-18. Total net interest income from conventional banking and income from Islamic financing rose by 7.2% YoY to OMR 224.2mn (USD 583.1mn). (Source: Times of Oman)  Bahrain’s FinTech Bay visitors are expected to get access to special promotions when availing Dubai-based Careem’s service from and to the Fintech hub, according to the recent partnership between the two parties. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Kuwait’s Public Authority for Roads and Transport has announced that the work on the 22-km-long Seventh Ring Road in the country is progressing steadily with almost 37.0% of the work being complete. GCC NEWS  UAE President has issued new law on public debt which will enable the federal government to issue sovereign bonds and help the banking sector comply with international liquidity rules including Basel III requirements. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai’s real estate market witnessed a 5.3% YoY rise in the number of transactions to 39,802 while value of transactions declined by 20.0% YoY to AED 162.0bn (USD 44.1bn) during the 9M-18 reflecting growth from confidence among investors and developers, according to Dubai Land Department. (Source: Trade Arabia)  The number of business registration and licensing transactions completed in Dubai during September-18 rose 24.9% MoM to 22,113 with the top nationalities being Indians, Pakistanis and Chinese, according to Dubai Department of Economic Development. (Source: (Source: Trade Arabia) QATAR NEWS  Qatar’s CPI inflation declined by 1.1% MoM in September-18 due to fall in five major groups i.e. recreation and culture (-6.6%), transport (-2.4%), housing, water, electricity and gas (-0.35%), restaurants and hotels (-0.15%) and furniture &household equipment (-0.04%). The CPI declined by 0.38% YoY. (Source: Peninsula Qatar)  Qatar’s industrial production grew 4.7% YoY and 2.5% MoM respectively in August-18, primarily driven by a stronger hydrocarbons and manufacturing sectors, according to MDPS. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar’s non-oil exports recorded a 26.1% YoY increase during August18 to QAR 2.26bn (USD 620.8mn) due to the high efficiency and quality of Qatari products, according to the Qatar Chamber on foreign trade for the private sector. (Source: Peninsula Qatar)  Ras Girtas Power Company has entered into a 15-year long service agreement valued at QAR 360.0mn (USD 98.9mn) with Japan’s Mitsubishi Hitachi Power Systems (MHPS). The Senior Executive Vice President of MHPS stated that the company can help Qatar achieve its plans to add an estimated 4.2GW electricity and boost its LNG production. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar Petroleum President and CEO has announced that the company will manage and operate the Idd El-Shargi North Dome (ISND) field after the contract for the Development and Production Sharing Agreement (DPSA) with Occidental Petroleum of Qatar expires on 6th October-19. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar Development Bank’s business localization department manager, Mohammed Mubarak al Mansouri has announced that the bank plans to launch Physical stores named 'Derwazaa' across Qatar to sell and promote 'made at home' products in the nation. (Source: Qatar Khaleej Times)  Dubai-based holding firm Aras Group has announced that it has arranged an AED 3.0bn (USD 816.5mn) value of funds for over 100 projects across a diverse portfolio consisting of real estate, renewable energy, hospitality, start-ups, refineries and ships in the UAE. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai-based port operator DP World has announced the launch of a multi-phased expansion of Berbera port in Somaliland to create a regional trading hub to increase the trade for landlocked countries in Africa. (Source: Construction Week Online)  Dubai-based Emirates Integrated Telecommunications Company (DU) has partnered with Munich-based Giesecke+Devrient Mobile Security to launch eSims for the UAE customers by the end of October-18, according to the CEO of DU. (Source: Arabian Business)    Dubai-based Binghatti Developers has entered into an agreement with Izdihar Real Estate Fund, managed by Bank Muscat to sell its two residential properties of Binghatti Vista and Binghatti Sapphires situated in Dubai Silicon Oasis for a value of AED 200.0mn (USD 54.0mn). (Source: Arabian Business) Occupancy rates in Abu Dhabi hotels declined by 7.4% YoY in September-18 and the average daily rate (ADRs) declined by 1.9% YoY due to an earlier Eid Al Adha in 2018 indicating the supply outpacing demand, according to STR. (Source: Trade Arabia) Abu Dhabi-based Adnoc Sour Gas, a subsidiary of Adnoc, has announced that the work to construct a new Sulphur pipeline, to carry molten Sulphur produced from its Shah field sour gas operations is on track and is expected to be completed by 2019. (Source: Trade Arabia) Chairman of Sharjah-based pot operator Gulftainer has stated that there are still more interesting opportunities to operate ports and establish related infrastructure and logistics networks in the US. (Source: Tribune)  Public Works Authority (Ashghal) has announced the completion of the conversion of four signal-controlled intersections and opened them for commuters in line with its Wholesale Market Street upgradation plans. (Source: Qatar Tribune) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE October 15 , 2018 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1590 USD/QAR 3.6415 112.2100 EUR/QAR 4.2205 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.3183 JPY/QAR 0.0325 USD/CHF 0.9929 GBP/QAR 4.8006 USD/CAD 1.3024 CHF/QAR 3.6675 AUD/USD 0.7114 CAD/QAR 2.7960 NZD/USD 0.6507 AUD/QAR 2.5906 USD/INR 73.0713 INR/QAR 0.0498 USD/TRY 5.8732 TRY/QAR 0.6200 USD/ZAR 14.5185 ZAR/QAR 0.2508 USD/BRL 3.7800 BRL/QAR 0.9634 FX Commentary The USD rose against a basket of major currencies on Friday, with the dollar index closing 0.3% higher at 95.265. The EUR fell against the USD, due to ongoing budget concerns in Italy. The common currency also lost ground after the European Central Bank President lowered its outlook for inflation in the region from “relatively vigorous” to “gradual”. The GBP fell against the USD, as investors booked profits following the recent rise in the currency. The CAD was broadly unchanged against the USD on Friday, due to rebound in oil prices. The TRY was also unchanged against the USD as investors weighed the prospects for the release of the US pastor, on the expectation that he would be returned after the court hearing. The AUD fell, following the release of disappointing domestic housing data. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 2.17 2.20 2.28 2.44 2.96 (0.45) (0.38) (0.37) (0.32) (0.16) 2.33 2.37 2.49 2.78 3.22 4.0% SAIBOR NA 2.48 2.56 2.73 3.11 2.0% EIBOR 2.04 2.16 2.45 2.68 3.46 BMIBOR 2.13 2.45 3.08 3.40 4.05 NA NA 1.69 2.06 2.56 LIBOR EURIBOR QAIBOR KIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 6.0% 5.05% 3.84% 4.03% 4.25% 2.85% 3.01% 3.09% 3.15% 3.33% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 30 Yrs 3.26% 0.0% Qatar Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 4.0% US 25.0 (2.0) Turkey 401.2 UK 30.2 11.5 Brazil 227.4 57.8 Germany 12.6 0.9 Egypt 383.4 106.1 3.04% 3.19% 3.15% 3.13% 2.0% 2.24% 2.10% 1.75% 1.98% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 3.22% 2.48% 0.0% 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs France Spreads 6M Change 30.6 12.3 Italy 277.4 175.8 Greece 423.1 Russia 154.7 Japan 25.7 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change Abu Dhabi 197.1 71.3 5.4 Bahrain 309.3 20.1 81.6 Dubai 130.2 16.7 10.5 Qatar 81.5 (7.6) (1.0) Saudi Arabia 92.5 1.8 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 07:30 Japan Industrial Production MoM Aug F - 0.70% 07:30 Japan Industrial Production YoY Aug F - 0.60% 07:30 Japan Capacity Utilization MoM Aug - (0.60%) 11:30 Italy General Government Debt Aug - 2341.7b 15:30 US Retail Sales Advance MoM Sep 0.60% 0.10% 15:30 US Empire Manufacturing Oct 20 19 15:30 US Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM Sep 0.40% 0.30% 15:30 US Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas Sep 0.40% 0.20% 15:30 US Retail Sales Control Group Sep 0.40% 0.10% 16:00 Canada Existing Home Sales MoM Sep 0.00% 0.90% 17:00 US Business Inventories Aug 0.50% 0.60% Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Sembcorp Salalah Power & Wat 16.0 (14.2) (13.1) 2.1 (4.1) (45.4) Renaissance Services 63.5 32.4 7.1 2.0 (121.8) 911.9 Oman Flour Mills 22.1 (0.5) (1.9) 3.3 (15.8) (5.1) Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE October 15 , 2018 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS (As on 4th October 2018) Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing Qatar First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Investment Holding Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Alkhaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.0 2.5 0.0 13.7 3.9 6.8 5.3 5.7 0.0 3.0 6.8 3.3 8.4 3.9 7.0 6.2 5.6 6.7 4.8 0.0 0.0 5.7 5.9 5.2 6.2 0.0 4.7 3.9 4.1 4.1 2.5 7.1 8.1 4.1 0.0 5.9 3.5 4.6 6.9 3.9 7.1 4.8 0.0 8.9 5.8 5.2 0.0 3.9 4.2 5.6 5.2 5.3 4.2 P/B Ratio (x) 1.3 1.1 1.4 0.8 1.1 0.8 2.3 0.5 0.9 2.3 1.6 2.6 0.6 2.0 1.0 2.0 2.3 0.7 2.5 1.1 0.4 4.1 1.0 1.8 0.8 1.0 0.5 2.3 1.5 2.2 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.8 0.5 0.6 1.6 0.7 2.3 1.1 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.6 1.1 1.5 1.2 0.6 0.8 1.6 P/E Ratio (x) 10.3 12.7 60.7 7.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 7.0 13.6 (H) (‫)م‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 13.2 10.5 12.3 13.7 12.3 5.1 22.7 10.9 13.4 15.2 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 11.6 7.2 13.0 12.4 44.2 10.4 18.6 16.5 13.0 16.1 10.0 11.2 16.5 39.2 14.9 40.3 13.1 11.4 24.2 8.6 28.6 46.0 9.6 15.1 13.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 18.6 11.1 11.2 15.6 12.6 13.9 EPS (QR) 3.1 3.2 0.2 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.6 2.8 0.3 (M) (‫)س‬ 10.7 5.6 14.7 0.4 6.0 11.1 2.9 13.9 1.1 11.0 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 6.4 13.8 5.9 0.8 0.5 0.5 7.0 1.0 14.7 1.9 4.2 5.0 2.7 0.2 0.9 0.9 3.7 4.5 1.5 4.1 0.4 0.2 1.5 0.9 4.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.3 3.7 1.6 4.4 2.2 3.1 BV/Share (QR) 24.7 38.0 8.1 27.6 24.0 14.8 16.4 19.6 5.7 61.2 36.0 70.4 9.3 36.7 56.5 32.8 65.4 21.5 68.1 4.3 12.3 18.0 101.5 41.8 12.5 19.8 10.5 55.7 11.4 87.5 21.7 32.2 45.9 24.9 19.6 20.6 24.0 69.3 22.6 31.4 48.3 11.6 12.9 30.9 17.7 69.3 5.4 22.9 27.6 15.1 120.7 32.7 27.2 Stock Price (QR) 32.0 40.0 11.2 21.8 26.0 11.1 37.5 8.8 4.8 140.3 59.0 180.0 6.0 57.0 65.0 151.0 15.0 167.0 4.9 5.0 74.0 99.5 9.6 20.0 5.4 129.4 16.9 191.3 30.5 42.1 55.8 9.2 12.8 37.5 48.0 51.0 35.4 10.4 6.7 14.0 67.4 8.7 40.8 17.9 68.0 - Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫ا س ت ثمار ال قاب ضة‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4