GCC Daily Market Update - 10 July

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE July 10 , 2017 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,425.2 21,414.3 5,656.5 7,350.9 12,388.7 5,145.2 100,084.4 19,929.1 25,340.9 3,218.0 31,360.6 15.4 94.3 58.6 13.6 7.4 (7.2) (542.6) (65.0) (124.4) 5.5 (8.7) 0.6 0.4 1.0 0.2 0.1 (0.1) (0.5) (0.3) (0.5) 0.2 (0.0) 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 (0.4) (0.5) (1.6) 0.8 1.4 8.3 8.4 16.3 2.9 7.9 5.8 28.1 4.3 15.2 3.7 17.8 8,904.2 7,166.8 4,410.5 3,402.7 6,723.6 5,134.9 1,310.0 1,578.5 3,255.5 (18.6) (37.2) 14.2 1.5 43.4 15.4 (0.8) 0.0 (0.0) (0.2) (0.5) 0.3 0.0 0.7 0.3 (0.1) 0.0 (0.0) (1.4) (3.5) (0.3) 0.3 (0.6) 0.3 0.0 0.2 (0.4) (14.7) (0.6) (3.0) (3.6) 17.0 (11.2) 7.3 0.4 12.1 46.7 44.2 2.9 1,209.7 263.8 (1.4) (1.3) (0.0) (13.6) (1.4) (2.9) (2.8) (0.8) (1.1) (0.5) (1.7) (3.1) (4.7) (2.6) (1.9) (17.1) (17.0) (22.3) 5.0 5.7 Global US stocks traded higher on Friday, buoyed by encouraging US non-farm payrolls data. Nasdaq index outperformed its peer indices, supported by gains in Technology shares. Home Building stocks were among the notable gainers, as the US jobs report revealed that job creations in construction sector remained healthy during the last month. Weakness in oil prices and concerns about a shift in the stance of the European Central Bank weighed on the European markets, with Stoxx 600 index ending 0.1% lower. European markets trimmed its losses following the upbeat US jobs report. UK markets traded higher, as weakness in GBP improved earnings prospects of the exporting companies listed on the benchmark. Chinese markets ended higher, despite the Central Bank refraining from pumping additional liquidity into the economy through the means of open-market operations. GCC GCC markets traded mostly higher yesterday. Saudi markets inched lower, tracking losses in oil prices, which weighed on the Petrochemical companies on the bourse. Dubai markets traded marginally higher, helped by gains in Insurance and Real Estate & Construction indices. Abu Dhabi market rose 0.3%, as index heavy-weight Dana Gas rose 1.5% in a heavy trade. Kuwaiti market outperformed its peer indices, led by gains in Consumer Services and Telecommunication sectors. Qatar Qatari markets traded lower, on the back of selling pressure on the part of foreign institutional investors and lower oil prices. The market had initially opened in the green, however, profit booking on the final trading hours led to the broader market losses. Trade turnover and volumes fell, with Telecom, Banking and Industrial sectors accounting for more than 83% of the total volumes. Out of 44 companies listed, 39 exchanged hands, of which 15 declined, 20 advanced and 4 remain unchanged. Source: Bloomberg QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 13.1 1.3 4.2 31.0 DSM 20 14.7 1.5 3.9 25.7 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 16.9 1.6 3.1 541.1 UAE (ADX) 16.0 1.3 4.7 35.9 UAE (DFM) 15.6 1.2 4.2 66.8 Kuwait (KSE) 18.4 1.2 5.4 23.9 Oman (MSM) 11.8 1.1 5.7 2.1 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 8.1 0.8 6.0 1.1 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Doha Insurance Co Qatar Islamic Insurance Al Khaleej Takaful Grp Qatar Industrial Manu Gulf Warehousing Co Top Losers Qatar Insurance Co Qatar Gas Transport Qatar Navigation Qatar German Medical Mesaieed Petro Hold Close Price 14.0 64.9 16.4 42.0 45.8 0.6 2.5 0.4 1.0 0.8 4.3 4.0 2.5 2.4 1.8 (23.1) 28.3 (22.3) (5.6) (18.2) (28.2) 11.9 (32.5) (0.5) (21.7) 36.0 8.0 11.8 1.0 4.4 9.1 15.2 32.6 10.0 12.7 66.1 17.9 73.0 7.6 13.1 (1.6) (0.4) (0.7) (0.1) (0.1) (2.4) (2.1) (0.9) (0.9) (0.8) (10.4) (22.5) (23.6) (25.0) (17.4) 5.0 (22.5) (17.0) (34.1) (30.2) 13.7 326.1 19.4 13.6 79.2 17.8 11.0 13.9 NA 16.5 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. Qatar DSM Index 11,000 10,500 10,000 9,500 9,000 8,500 12/Apr 30.0 20.0 8,904.2 10.0 0.0 26/Apr 10/May 24/May Index Volume (mn) 7/Jun 21/Jun 5/Jul Index Value Closing Level 2,684.6 5,298.3 2,736.0 3,926.1 1,969.0 1,111.3 2,063.2 1D Change (%) 0.4 0.4 (0.2) (1.6) 0.9 (0.3) (1.2) Buy (%) 60.5 17.3 77.8 14.3 7.9 22.2 Sell (%) 55.3 12.5 67.8 13.8 18.4 32.2 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE July 10 , 2017 estimated, while revenues were higher. He further expected a moderate economic growth in 2019 and 2020. (Source: Mubasher) GLOBAL NEWS  US nonfarm payrolls totaled 222,000 in June-17 against 179,000 expected. Unemployment rate held at 4.4% in June-17. (Source: CNBC)  UK manufacturing output dropped 0.2% MoM led by declines in Transport equipments. Construction output declined 1.2% MoM in May-17. (Source: Market Insider)    UK trade deficit widened to GBP 2.3bn in May-17, from a downwardlyrevised deficit of GBP 1.9bn in April-17 as value of exports fell faster than imports. Exports fell by GBP 2.1bn while imports fell by GBP 1.6bn as compared to April-17. (Source: BBC) Germany's industrial production surged 1.2% MoM in May-17 led by capital goods output which rose 2.6% and an increase in production of consumer goods by 1.4%. Meanwhile, the production of intermediate goods showed a decrease of 0.2%. (Source: Morningstar) Japan’s gross labor cash earnings rose 0.7% YoY in May-17 faster than the 0.5% YoY climb in April-17. Contractual gross earnings also grew 0.7% annually while special cash earnings dropped by 1.6%. (Source: Market Insider)  Turkey’ merger and acquisition transaction value reached USD 4.5bn in H1-17, of which 69.0% of the transactions worth USD 3.1bn were by foreign investors, data from an EY report revealed. (Source: AA)  Mubasher)  UAE’s Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA) has entered into a partnership with the Authority of Qianhai Shenzhen-Hong Kong Modern Service Industry Cooperation Zone (Qianhai Authority) to further develop and promote closer investment and financial innovation opportunities and collaborations for enterprises in Hong Kong and Abu Dhabi. (Source: Trade Arabia)  According to Propertyfinder’s UAE Real Estate Trends 2017 report, downtown Dubai remained the most expensive area, despite a 6.7% price decline. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai’s non-oil foreign trade grew 2.7% YoY in Q1-17 to AED 327.0bn (USD 87.0bn). Imports accounted for AED 201.0bn while exports reached to AED 35.0bn. The volume of Dubai’s external non-oil trade reached 24.0mn tons, while imports reached 15.8mn tons. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai Electricity and Water Authority (Dewa) awarded an AED 46.0mn (USD 12.5mn) worth of contract to UAE contracting firm Dutco Balfour Beatty for the development of the first phase of its new headquarters, Al Sheraa. The scope of work in Phase one includes shoring, dewatering, excavation, piling, fencing and associated works. (Source: (Source: Trade Arabia) The Saudi British Bank (SABB) has partnered with Bolero International, a top trade finance digitisation solution provider, to offer electronic trade document solutions to corporate clients. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Kuwait's real estate market sales went up 37.0% YoY in May-17 to KWD 289.0mn (USD 951.0mn) as investment and residential sectors sales climbed 38.0% and 23.0% YoY, according to National Bank of Kuwait (NBK) report. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) is about to spend about KWD 24.0bn (USD 79.0bn) over the next five years, as part of its plans to boost the output capacity to 4.0mn bpd, from 3.1mn bpd currently, sources said. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Oman Oil Company’s subsidiary, Ottco, has got permission from The Special Economic Zone Authority at Duqm (SEZD) to construct a crude oil storage terminal at Ras Markaz. The plan will also cover the establishment of a plant for pumping oil to the tanks, said the chairman of SEZD board. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Oman based Al Maha Petroleum Products Marketing Company has received two contracts worth OMR 91.0mn (USD 235.6mn). The contracts are for supplying 380.0mn litres of gas oil to Raeco and for designing, building, operating and maintaining a new fuel station for Mwasalat. (Source: Trade Arabia) QATAR NEWS  Qatar’s non-oil exports increased by 12.2% MoM to QAR 1.5bn in May17. Over the five months of 2017, the non oil exports stood at QAR 7.8bn. UAE was the top non-oil exports destination. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar’s share of global LNG trade would fall to 17.0% by 2026 from 30.0% now if it does not implement plans to boost annual LNG production to 100mn metric tonnes within seven years from 77.0mn tonnes now, according to data from BMI Research. (Source: Gulf Times)  The Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) is undertaking a series of measures, which include rules for market makers and allowing omnibus account for the custodians, which implies advent of derivatives. (Source: Gulf Trade Arabia)     Dubai based Emirates Central Cooling Systems Corporation (Empower) has inked an agreement with US based Trane Commercial to purchase new eco-friendly chillers for its ongoing projects. Trane Commercial will supply Empower with 30 advanced, eco-friendly chillers, with total refrigeration tons (RT) of 1.0mn. (Source: Trade Arabia) Abu Dhabi based Arabtec Holding’s wholly-owned subsidiary, Target Engineering Construction Company has received four projects worth AED 289.0mn (USD 79.0mn) which covers a range of specializations including cofferdam removal and revetment construction in Western Region. (Source: Trade Arabia) Abu Dhabi General Services Company (Musanada) announced that it has completed two phased of the USD 1.4bn Mafraq-Ghuwaifat Highway project that will be linking western region cities to the international borders with Saudi Arabia. (Source: Trade Arabia) The Saudi Ministry of Finance (MoF) will issue sukuk during July-17 in accordance with the fiscal balance program, said Saudi minister of finance. He added that budget spending for Q2-17 was lower than Saudi Arabia based Bahri Logistics has added Alexandria to its portfolio of ports in Egypt which will enable it to offer breakbulk and RO/RO transportation service on its North American itinerary from key US ports to Alexandria and from Alexandria to the Middle East and India.  GCC NEWS  Saudi Arabia based Jabal Omar Development Company has inked an agreement of cooperation with Foster + Partners to design the architecture for Four Seasons Hotels and Resorts in Jabal Omar. (Source: Times)  Qatar Chamber said that the efforts of the private sector helped ensure the continued flow of goods into the local market to prevent any shortage during the economic siege imposed by neighbours. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar is ranked as the Arab world’s “most innovative country”, due to its Qatar National Vision (QNV) 2030’s government-led digital transformation, Ooredoo said citing World Economic Forum’s latest Global Competitiveness Report. (Source: Gulf Times)  Moody’s has affirmed QIIB’s rating to A2 in 2017. Despite the bank facing the challenges as other Qatari banks, Moody’s expect the bank’s performance to be relatively resilient due to solid retail-focused franchise, stock of liquid assets and high capital buffers. (Source: The Peninsula)  Qatar Ports Management Company (Mwani Qatar) said that it handled 212 vessels in June-17 at Hamad Port, Doha Port and Ruwais Port. (Source: Gulf Times) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE July 10 , 2017 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1431 USD/QAR 3.6415 113.9200 EUR/QAR 4.1626 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.2920 JPY/QAR 0.0320 USD/CHF 0.9640 GBP/QAR 4.7048 USD/CAD 1.2876 CHF/QAR 3.7775 AUD/USD 0.7601 CAD/QAR 2.8281 NZD/USD 0.7281 AUD/QAR 2.7679 USD/INR 64.0950 INR/QAR 0.0568 USD/TRY 3.6185 TRY/QAR 1.0064 USD/ZAR 13.3842 ZAR/QAR 0.2721 USD/BRL 3.2811 BRL/QAR 1.1098 FX Commentary The USD traded higher against a basket of currencies, with the dollar index ending 0.2% higher on Friday. The USD found buying support after the US non-farm payrolls data came in higher than expectations for the last month, strengthening case for the US Federal Reserve to move ahead with its rate hike plans. The GBP traded lower against the USD. A series of disappointing UK macroeconomic data weighed on the sterling. The JPY weakened against the USD, after the Bank of Japan stated that it would purchase unlimited amount of bonds, in an effort to check the rising domestic rates. The CAD bucked the overall trend, as it rose against the USD, after encouraging Canadian jobs data increased chances that the Central Bank might lift its lending rates in the near future. However, losses in oil prices, limited the gains in the CAD. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 1.17 1.19 1.23 1.31 1.76 (0.43) (0.38) (0.37) (0.33) (0.16) LIBOR EURIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 6.0% QAIBOR 1.86 2.07 2.26 2.45 2.94 4.0% SAIBOR NA 1.35 1.46 1.79 2.23 2.0% EIBOR 0.96 1.09 1.27 1.55 2.15 BMIBOR 1.00 1.25 1.75 1.98 2.73 NA NA 1.50 1.75 2.25 KIBOR 2.62% 1.41% 3.28% 3.53% 3.79% 1.95% 2.22% 2.39% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 4.64% 2.93% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 26.6 (3.3) Turkey 207.8 (63.2) UK 22.3 (10.7) Brazil 244.6 (17.0) Germany 17.5 (5.9) Egypt 439.3 (13.0) France 24.0 (14.8) Abu Dhabi 153.1 (4.5) Greece 19.5 Russia 179.3 Japan 27.1 2.0% 1.65% 2.36% 2.18% 2.02% 1.68% 1.0% 0.0% 2.61% 1.25% 1.07% 0.77% 0.93% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current Italy 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change 66.8 8.8 Bahrain 260.5 (16.5) (13.2) Dubai 138.5 (1.2) (54.7) Qatar 127.4 9.6 (3.9) Saudi Arabia 115.3 26.9 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event 07:30 Japan Bankruptcies YoY Period Survey Prior Jun - 19.52% 09:00 Germany 09:00 Germany Trade Balance May 18.7b 18.1b Current Account Balance May 15.4b 15.1b 09:00 09:00 Germany Exports SA MoM May 0.30% 0.90% Germany Imports SA MoM May 0.30% 1.20% 09:30 France Bank of France Bus. Sentiment Jun 106 105 11:30 Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Jul 28.1 28.4 17:00 Canada Bloomberg Nanos Confidence Jul-07th - 58.4 17:00 US Labor Market Conditions Index Change Jun 2.5 2.3 22:00 US Consumer Credit May $13.500b $8.197b 02:01 UK BRC Sales Like-For-Like YoY Jun 0.50% (0.40%) 02:50 Japan Money Stock M2 YoY Jun 3.90% 3.90% 02:50 Japan Money Stock M3 YoY Jun 3.40% 3.40% Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) 2.5 (11.1) (2.1) 0.0 (58.4) (47.3) Dhofar Poultry Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE July 10 , 2017 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS (As on 6th July 2017) Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.0 0.0 0.0 10.0 2.0 5.7 5.0 3.7 0.0 5.4 7.4 2.6 6.2 3.6 5.5 3.8 6.8 3.5 6.0 0.0 8.9 6.4 6.1 5.9 5.5 4.7 4.3 4.6 4.0 2.3 7.3 5.6 4.3 3.8 4.5 1.9 4.8 5.6 2.5 7.9 4.1 0.0 7.3 5.3 3.8 0.0 3.1 3.6 5.5 4.8 5.0 4.0 P/B Ratio (x) 1.3 0.7 2.1 0.9 2.1 0.8 2.5 0.7 0.8 1.5 1.4 1.9 0.9 1.6 1.3 2.3 2.1 1.4 1.6 1.2 0.6 3.8 0.7 1.5 0.9 1.1 1.8 1.2 2.6 2.2 1.3 1.5 1.6 0.8 0.6 2.3 0.4 3.0 1.4 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.8 1.3 0.6 0.9 1.4 P/E Ratio (x) 10.1 39.8 (H) (‫)م‬ 7.3 55.7 11.0 14.6 (H) (‫)م‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 9.4 10.2 8.9 22.9 10.4 6.6 32.3 13.9 47.5 13.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 10.0 10.5 5.9 11.4 15.4 (H) (‫)م‬ 17.9 16.6 13.5 19.0 9.8 9.7 16.4 31.4 8.7 18.5 13.0 14.6 17.1 8.6 14.7 22.6 10.1 12.1 15.5 (M) (‫))س‬ 22.3 12.6 11.2 14.2 12.4 12.6 EPS (QR) 3.2 0.8 0.5 4.1 0.9 1.2 2.7 0.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 9.4 5.3 13.8 0.4 5.6 11.0 2.5 9.5 0.6 8.2 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.9 5.3 12.6 5.4 0.7 0.0 5.3 0.8 14.0 2.3 4.2 6.7 2.4 0.5 1.6 3.7 2.4 4.3 3.0 3.7 0.8 0.5 1.7 1.2 5.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.4 3.6 1.6 5.2 2.4 3.0 BV/Share (QR) 24.2 42.0 9.2 34.9 24.4 16.7 15.6 20.1 9.0 57.9 39.2 65.1 9.6 36.6 54.5 33.9 63.0 20.9 65.8 6.4 14.0 14.5 112.9 41.5 12.7 19.5 52.9 10.9 72.3 20.1 30.9 44.8 23.9 20.9 21.3 29.2 71.6 21.0 35.7 45.6 11.7 12.6 30.2 17.4 68.5 5.5 22.8 25.2 14.7 122.0 32.4 27.0 Stock Price (QR) 32.0 29.9 19.0 30.0 51.0 13.2 39.7 13.6 7.6 88.2 54.0 123.0 8.1 72.2 79.0 132.5 29.0 107.4 7.7 9.0 55.0 74.0 11.0 21.2 94.0 13.2 189.3 43.8 41.0 64.9 16.0 13.4 67.7 31.0 62.4 31.8 12.1 10.3 17.0 92.0 8.1 45.0 18.3 73.7 - Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4