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GCC Daily Market Update - 10 December

IM Insights
By IM Insights
4 years ago
GCC Daily Market Update - 10 December

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  1. December 10 , 2019 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 3,136.0 27,909.6 8,362.7 7,233.9 13,105.6 5,837.3 108,786.1 23,430.7 26,494.7 2,914.5 40,487.4 (10.0) (105.5) (34.6) (5.8) (61.0) (34.7) (83.0) 76.3 (3.6) 2.5 42.3 (0.3) (0.4) (0.4) (0.1) (0.5) (0.6) (0.1) 0.3 (0.0) 0.1 0.1 (0.2) (0.5) (0.5) (1.5) (1.0) (1.2) 1.8 0.6 0.6 1.5 (0.8) 25.1 19.6 32.1 7.5 24.1 23.4 19.2 17.1 2.5 16.9 12.3 10,277.0 8,120.0 5,023.0 2,684.4 6,095.7 4,020.9 1,549.4 1,935.8 4,153.3 (100.2) 21.3 (20.4) (9.5) 21.4 (5.2) 2.1 0.6 (8.4) (1.0) 0.3 (0.4) (0.4) 0.4 (0.1) 0.1 0.0 (0.2) 1.3 3.3 (0.2) 0.2 2.8 (1.1) 1.5 1.2 0.2 (0.2) 3.7 2.2 6.1 20.0 (7.0) 15.9 10.6 24.5 64.3 59.0 2.2 1,459.3 274.7 (0.1) (0.2) (0.1) 0.2 3.6 (0.2) (0.3) (4.4) 0.0 1.3 2.7 6.8 (1.8) (0.4) 4.0 19.2 29.8 (23.8) 13.9 4.4 Global Transatlantic markets ended lower yesterday, as the 15th December-19 deadline for the imposing new US tariffs on China inched closer. The US markets closed lower, after rising for three consecutive sessions. The S&P 500 index fell 0.1%. Loses in Healthcare, Technology and Industrial stocks weighed on the index. The Stoxx Europe 600 index declined by 0.2% and settled at 406.4, following the release of tepid Chinese export data. Energy shares were among the major decliners during yesterday’s session. In Asia, the Nikkei index rose by 0.3% to settle at 23,430.7, as investors reacted to the robust US jobs data. However, concerns relating to the approaching tariff deadline kept gains under check. GCC Most GCC markets ended on a negative note yesterday. Dubai’s benchmark declined 0.4% amid losses in Transportation, Telecommunication and Real Estate & Construction stocks. The Abu Dhabi index declined 0.4%, on back of losses in Investment & Financial Services, Real Estate and Energy stocks. In Saudi Arabia, Sahara International Petrochemical rose by 4.2%, after the company’s board approved to buy back up to 10.0% of its shares. Qassim Cement inched up by 4.1%, after its board proposed cash dividend of SAR 1.0 per share for Q3-19. Qatar The QE index decreased by 1.0% yesterday, underperforming its regional peers. Selling pressure on part of domestic and foreign institutional investors weighed on the benchmark. Trade turnover increased while volumes declined on the bourse, with Banking & Financial Services, Industrial and Real Estate together accounting for about 82.4% of the total volume. Out of 46 listed stocks, 42 exchanged hands, 9 advanced, 25 declined and 8 remained unchanged. Source: Bloomberg QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 14.9 1.5 4.1 49.8 10,600 DSM 20 14.9 1.5 4.1 45.2 10,475 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 20.9 1.8 3.7 1,039.8 10,350 GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Qatar DSM Index UAE (ADX) 15.4 1.4 5.0 39.3 10,225 UAE (DFM) 10.7 1.0 4.4 46.0 10,100 12-Sep 200.0 10,277.0 100.0 0.0 26-Sep 10-Oct 24-Oct Index Volume (mn) Kuwait (KSE) 15.0 1.4 3.5 110.3 Oman (MSM) 7.6 0.7 7.4 2.0 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 12.5 1.0 5.0 5.2 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Qatar & Oman Invest. Gulf Warehousing Co. United Development Qatari Investors Group Masraf Al Rayan Top Losers Islamic Holding Group Qatar National Bank Qatar Industrial Mft Mesaieed Petrochem. Al Khaleej Takaful Grp Close Price 0.6 5.2 1.5 1.8 3.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 11.4 34.1 0.3 (36.0) (6.2) 1.5 975.9 70.0 26.8 480.8 16.0 1.6 3,703.1 14.0 (38.8) 432.1 17.0 (6.9) 3,843.0 13.6 2.0 19.3 3.4 2.6 2.1 (0.1) (0.5) (0.1) (0.1) (0.0) (2.5) (2.4) (2.3) (1.9) (1.9) (10.8) (1.0) (21.3) 69.7 138.6 (15.6) 371.7 207.3 (2.0) 2,436.0 13.9 (21.9) 47.4 14.2 56.4 2,929.1 37.5 131.4 503.4 13.1 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 7-Nov 21-Nov Index Value 5-Dec Closing Level 4,055.6 8,581.2 2,944.3 2,705.8 1,533.4 913.1 2,602.2 1D Change (%) (1.4) (1.0) (1.4) (0.1) 0.3 (1.3) 0.1 Buy (%) 25.2 30.8 56.0 9.5 34.5 44.0 Sell (%) 18.0 33.0 51.0 7.7 41.3 49.0 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
  2. December 10 , 2019 GLOBAL NEWS  The US President said the nation is progressing well with China in finalizing a trade deal, as the time approaches the 15th December-19 deadline when new tariffs will be imposed on Chinese imports, including mobile phones and toys. (Source: Reuters)  The US House of Representatives and Senate Armed Services Committees have reached an agreement on a USD 738.0bn bill setting policy for the Department of Defense. The legislation includes USD 658.4bn for the Department of Defense, USD 71.5bn for ongoing foreign wars and USD 5.3bn in emergency funding. (Source: Reuters)  According to a report by the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, large European companies are shifting manufacturing supply chains to avoid US-China tariffs, while smaller ones are bearing the extra costs. (Source: Reuters)  Chinese soy importers purchased at least five bulk cargo shipments of US soybeans (about 300,000 tons), for delivery in January-20 and February-20. The move follows the tariff waivers of 30.0% offered by China to the buyers on at least 1.0mn tons. (Source: Reuters)  China’s Assistant Commerce Minister said that the nation is hopeful to reach a trade agreement with the US that satisfies both sides, as soon as possible. (Source: Reuters)  China's President told the President of new European Council that the nation hopes to reach an investment agreement with the European Union as soon as possible to improve market access. (Source: US News)  Turkey's central bank raised the ceiling to between 5.0-15.0% on loan growth targets required for banks to qualify for lower required reserve ratio of 2.0%. The central bank also removed some housing and consumer loans from banks' loan growth calculations to channel loans to production-oriented sectors, such as manufacturing rather than consumption-oriented ones. (Source: US News) GCC NEWS   The net income of commercial and Islamic banks operating in Abu Dhabi reached AED 15.0bn (USD 4.1bn) during H1-19, representing 58.0% of total net income in 2018, as per SCAD. Of which traditional banks accounted for 83.0% while 13.0% came from Islamic banks. The number of people employed totaled 11,768. (Source: Emirates News Agency)  Abu Dhabi’s developer Miral and US-based Warner Bros announced that the world’s first Warner Bros branded hotel, “The WB Abu Dhabi” will open on Yas Island in 2021. Around 40.0% construction work has been completed on the USD 112.0mn hotel. (Source: Arabian Business)  Crown Prince of Ajman launched the AED 1.0bn (USD 272.0mn) Thumbay Medicity project in the emirate and inaugurated the Thumbay University Hospital within the project. (Source: Arabian Business)  Saudi Arabia announced a budget of SAR 1.02tn (USD 272.0bn) for 2020. Revenues are forecasted at SAR 833.0bn (USD 221.9bn), widening the budget deficit to SAR 187.0bn (USD 49.8bn), or 6.4% of GDP), compared with a projected deficit of SAR 131.0bn (USD 34.9bn), or 4.7% of GDP in 2019. For 2020, the nation projected a real GDP growth at 2.3%, compared to 0.4% growth in 2019. (Source: Reuters)  The proceeds from Saudi Aramco’s record IPO have increased to USD 29.4bn, of which USD 25.6bn came from the main IPO, after the company exercised an option to sell 15.0% additional stock, according to the lead arranger National Commercial Bank. The final number of shares sold is 3.45bn. (Source: Reuters)  Oman’s central bank announced that the nation’s economy contracted by 1.9% YoY in nominal terms in H1-19, due to 3.4% contraction in the non-oil sector. The oil sector grew by 2.1% YoY, during the same period. (Source: Reuters)  Bahrain's Housing Ministry has awarded a contract worth BHD 260.0mn (USD 691.0mn) to China Machinery Engineering Corporation (CMEC) for the construction of 3,000 housing units and land plots under the East Sitra Town development plan. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Kuwait’s logistics firm, Agility has won a legal battle against Kuwait’s Public Authority of Industry for not renewing its lease contract for a 1.0mn sqm plot of industrial land in the nation. (Source: Arabian Business) According to Colliers International, arrival of visitors from the UK to the GCC will increase by 21.7% during 2018-24 to 2.8mn in 2024. The increase will be driven by new and direct flight routes, competitive air fares and a growing number of leisure travelers. (Source: Trade Arabia)   According to Research and Markets, GCC’s smart homes technology market is expected to continue its growth witnessed in past few years to reach more than USD 3.4bn by the end of 2025. (Source: GDN Online) Qatar’s Minister of foreign affairs has arrived in Saudi Arabia for a preparatory meeting ahead of an annual summit of GCC leaders that is expected to see a softening in a 2.5-year Gulf crisis. (Source: Reuters)   The UAE is working on a series of reforms to achieve its target of topping the World Bank’s annual ease of doing business ranking in 2021, moving up from the current 16th position, according to the General Director of FCSA. These include improving legislation, procedures and cost and time of doing business. (Source: Press Reader) Qatar and Pakistan have agreed on a Preferential Trade Agreement and a Free Trade Agreement to enhance bilateral trade, and the agreements will be signed soon. Nebras Power expressed interest to invest directly in Pakistan’s power sector. (Source: Tribune)  Qatar Financial Centre (QFC) announced that Qatar’s largest financial technology (fintech) service provider QPAY LLC, has joined QFC platform. (Source: Qatar Tribune)  The subsidiary of Qatar-based Optimized Holding, Optimized Industries for Chemicals Factory has partnered with Unilever International to launch local production of Lifebuoy and Lux soap bars in the nation. The factory’s initial production capacity to meet local demand is expected to be 1,800 tons annually. (Source: Gulf Times)  Turkey-based packaging company, Sarten group announced plans to expand its operations in Qatar, which will include setting up a factory to provide packaging solutions to Qatar’s rapidly expanding manufacturing sector. The company will specifically target the fast moving consumer goods producers. (Source: Peninsula Qatar)  The Gulf Organisation for Research and Development has launched EcoLab, Qatar’s pioneering facility for testing energy efficiency and safety of air conditioners and home appliances. The organization will be operational before the end of 2019. (Source: Gulf Times)    Germany-based DHL Express has officially opened its new Dubai World Central facility which is expected to see an investment of USD 5.5mn over five years to support the rapid growth of e-commerce in the UAE and GCC. The 4,870 sqm center, is capable of managing 2,400 shipments per hour. (Source: Arabian Business) Egypt-based DP World Sokhna, a 100.0% subsidiary of Dubai-based DP World signed a trilateral partnership with China-based CSCEC and Cosco, to serve as the hub for all construction material imports needed to build the central business and financial district of Egypt’s USD 45.0bn new administrative capital. (Source: Trade Arabia) Germany-based engineering and industrial services provider, Bilfinger signed a three-year agreement with Abu Dhabi Transmission & Despatch Company (Transco) for maintenance of sodium hypochlorite plants at its pumping stations across the emirate. (Source: Zawya) QATAR NEWS 2
  3. December 10 , 2019 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1094 USD/QAR 3.6415 108.5600 EUR/QAR 4.0399 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.3177 JPY/QAR 0.0335 USD/CHF 0.9881 GBP/QAR 4.7984 USD/CAD 1.3239 CHF/QAR 3.6854 AUD/USD 0.6823 CAD/QAR 2.7506 NZD/USD 0.6549 AUD/QAR 2.4846 USD/INR 70.5500 INR/QAR 0.0516 USD/TRY 5.8094 TRY/QAR 0.6268 USD/ZAR 14.6715 ZAR/QAR 0.2482 USD/BRL 4.1397 BRL/QAR 0.8797 FX Commentary The US dollar declined against a basket of currencies on yesterday. The dollar index eased marginally to settle at 97.6. The weakness in the greenback came as investors closely monitored the happenings in the USChina trade negotiations, with the 15th December-19 deadline looming. The GBP increased against the USD, amid expectations that UK PM Johnson will emerge victorious in the upcoming general elections. The EUR inched higher against the USD, on the back of encouraging Eurozone investor confidence data. The JPY increased, as the Japanese Q3-19 GDP came ahead of market expectations. The CAD rebounded against the USD, after declining on Friday, as the Canadian yields inched higher. The AUD inched lower against the USD, as weak Chinese trade data, provided a bearish assessment about the health of Australia’s largest trading partner. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 1.53 1.58 1.72 1.89 1.92 (0.57) (0.49) (0.46) (0.39) (0.27) 2.03 2.08 2.15 2.28 2.64 SAIBOR NA 1.92 2.10 2.24 2.30 EIBOR 1.51 1.66 1.88 2.19 2.42 BMIBOR 1.92 2.08 2.28 2.38 2.53 NA NA 2.56 2.75 3.13 LIBOR EURIBOR QAIBOR KIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Source: Bloomberg Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 4.0% 2.41% 2.64% 1.97% 2.17% 1.62% 1.66% 1.76% 1.82% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 2.0% 2.26% 0.0% Qatar 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 4.0% US 18.1 1.5 UK 21.0 Germany 2.86% 3.50% 2.83% 2.80% 2.89% 2.97% 2.0% 1.63% 1.63% 1.68% 1.76% 1.93% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Current 7 Yrs 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs 0.0% Source: Bloomberg France Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change Turkey 311.8 (88.1) (11.4) Brazil 119.1 (33.5) 10.0 (2.5) Egypt 322.8 (7.9) Abu Dhabi 19.2 (6.8) Italy 136.2 0.0 41.8 0.0 Bahrain 206.4 (55.9) Greece 148.7 Russia 66.3 (131.5) Dubai 120.1 (22.9) (48.5) Qatar 41.9 Japan 23.8 1.4 (21.8) Saudi Arabia 68.5 (15.4) Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event 10:45 France Industrial Production MoM 10:45 France Industrial Production YoY 12:00 Italy 12:00 12:30 Period Survey Prior Oct 0.20% 0.30% Oct (0.40%) 0.10% Industrial Production MoM Oct (0.20%) (0.40%) Italy Industrial Production WDA YoY Oct (2.00%) (2.10%) UK Industrial Production MoM Oct 0.20% (0.30%) 12:30 UK Industrial Production YoY Oct (1.20%) (1.40%) 12:30 UK Manufacturing Production MoM Oct 0.00% (0.40%) 12:30 UK Manufacturing Production YoY Oct (1.40%) (1.80%) 12:30 UK Visible Trade Balance GBP/Mn Oct (£11,673m) (£12,541m) 12:30 UK Trade Balance GBP/Mn Oct (£2,800m) (£3,360m) 13:00 Germany ZEW Survey Current Situation Dec (22) (24.7) 13:00 Germany ZEW Survey Expectations Dec 0.3 (2.1) 13:00 Eurozone ZEW Survey Expectations Dec -- (1) 14:00 US NFIB Small Business Optimism Nov 103 102.4 02:50 Japan PPI YoY Nov 0.00% (0.40%) Source: Bloomberg 3
  4. December 10 , 2019 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing Qatar First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Investment Holding Industries Qatar Mesaieed QAMCO Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Alkhaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 2.7 3.4 0.0 3.9 0.0 6.1 5.1 7.3 0.0 3.3 4.1 3.1 5.0 3.4 6.5 3.5 5.6 6.8 3.5 0.0 0.0 6.6 6.1 4.1 7.7 0.0 4.7 5.8 3.1 0.0 4.8 4.2 7.4 8.6 4.8 2.4 7.3 4.8 3.8 5.1 4.6 7.3 0.0 6.8 6.8 3.8 3.5 4.2 3.6 3.7 4.0 4.9 4.2 3.9 P/B Ratio (x) 1.4 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 2.2 0.5 0.9 2.2 2.5 2.5 0.6 2.0 0.6 2.5 2.2 1.0 2.8 2.1 0.5 3.6 1.4 2.1 0.6 0.9 0.6 1.8 2.2 0.8 1.9 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.6 1.0 0.5 1.2 0.4 2.8 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.7 1.5 0.5 1.0 1.5 P/E Ratio (x) 11.7 9.5 (M) (‫)س‬ 8.7 (H) (‫)م‬ 7.0 13.6 46.4 (M) (‫)س‬ 12.1 15.9 12.6 69.8 12.4 5.3 27.8 16.5 17.9 18.7 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 13.3 8.7 16.7 13.3 (M) (‫)س‬ 7.3 19.2 37.3 73.4 13.4 15.3 12.3 14.7 20.9 13.4 8.4 14.8 12.5 15.9 14.0 8.2 35.0 31.1 12.1 14.1 13.3 33.1 14.9 12.0 14.3 13.2 13.6 14.3 EPS (QR) 0.3 0.5 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.3 0.6 1.5 0.0 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.9 0.1 1.2 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 0.5 1.6 0.4 0.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.3 BV/Share (QR) 2.5 4.3 0.7 3.1 2.4 1.6 1.8 1.4 0.4 6.9 3.9 7.8 0.9 4.0 5.5 3.5 6.8 2.3 8.2 0.3 1.0 1.9 10.3 3.0 1.3 1.9 0.9 5.6 1.2 1.0 8.5 2.2 3.4 4.7 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.5 7.2 2.4 3.3 4.9 1.2 1.1 3.1 1.8 7.0 1.1 3.6 3.0 1.7 12.4 3.5 2.8 Stock Price (QR) 3.4 4.5 0.6 2.6 2.0 1.2 3.9 0.7 0.3 15.2 9.7 19.3 0.6 3.1 8.7 15.2 2.2 22.7 0.6 0.5 6.8 14.0 0.8 1.8 0.5 10.3 2.6 0.8 16.2 1.8 3.4 5.8 2.1 1.1 3.1 2.6 6.9 3.5 0.6 0.7 1.5 7.2 1.2 5.2 2.5 6.2 - Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫ا س ت ثمار ال قاب ضة‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫قامكو‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above-mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4