GCC Daily Market Update - 1 May

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE May 1 , 2018 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,648.1 (21.9) 24,163.2 (148.0) 6,605.6 (50.8) 7,509.3 7.1 12,612.1 31.2 5,520.5 37.3 104,282.8 (3,331.5) 22,467.9 NA 30,808.5 527.8 3,082.2 NA 35,160.4 190.7 (0.8) (0.6) (0.8) 0.1 0.3 0.7 (3.1) NA 1.7 NA 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.4 6.4 4.3 6.8 (9.3) 4.7 2.4 (2.7) 6.6 (1.0) (2.2) 3.3 (2.3) (2.4) 3.9 (9.6) (1.3) 3.0 (6.8) 3.2 9,112.0 8,208.9 4,669.5 3,066.0 4,799.1 4,729.1 1,257.9 1,682.9 3,623.2 (28.2) (16.1) (15.9) 17.5 17.3 (5.4) (4.9) (0.4) (13.3) (0.3) (0.2) (0.3) 0.6 0.4 (0.1) (0.4) (0.0) (0.4) 6.3 4.3 1.8 (1.4) (3.3) (0.9) (4.6) 1.9 0.3 6.9 13.6 6.2 (9.0) NA (7.3) (5.5) 5.8 (0.4) 75.2 68.6 2.8 1,319.2 305.3 0.5 0.5 (0.0) (4.2) 0.7 0.7 0.7 (0.3) (0.3) 0.2 (0.6) 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 11.8 13.6 (6.2) 0.8 (7.5) Global The US equity markets ended lower yesterday, as investors shrugged-off the latest batch of earnings data from the listed companies. The S&P 500 inched 0.8% lower, weighed by weak performance in Health Care, Industrials and Telecommunication stocks. Telecommunication shares inched lower, amid speculations that Sprint’s acquisition by T-Mobile might face some legal hurdles. The Stoxx Europe 600 index continued its upward trajectory to settle 0.2% higher, supported by gains in Telecommunication sector. The FTSE 100 index inched 0.1% higher, boosted by the gains in Supermarket shares and a continued decline in the GBP. In Asia, the Hang Seng index inched 1.7% higher, supported by gains in Financials and Real Estate stocks. Equity markets in Japan and China remained closed on account of public holidays. GCC Most GCC indices ended lower yesterday. Saudi Arabian index continued its downward trend to decline 0.2%, weighed by weakness in Energy stocks due to profit booking by investors. Saudi National Petrochemical rose 1.6%, after the company’s Q1-18 earnings topped market expectations. In Dubai the benchmark rose by 0.6%. Emaar Development climbed 0.9%, after the company’s Q1-18 net income exceeded market expectations. In Abu Dhabi, Etisalat lost 0.9% and Aldar Properties declined 0.5%, pulling down the benchmark index by 0.3%. Qatar The QE index inched 0.3% lower yesterday, weighed by strong selling activity by domestic institutional sellers. Trade turnover and volumes rose, with Industrials, Transport and Banking sectors together accounting for about 75.0% of the total volume. Out of the 45 listed stocks, 41 exchanged hands of which, 24 declined, 12 advanced and 5 remained unchanged. Source: Bloomberg QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 13.7 1.3 4.4 110.0 DSM 20 13.6 1.4 4.8 60.4 9,000 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 18.1 1.8 3.3 1,396.8 8,500 UAE (ADX) 12.3 1.4 5.2 41.0 UAE (DFM) 10.5 1.1 6.0 59.7 Kuwait (KSE) 14.3 1.2 3.9 58.1 Oman (MSM) 11.8 1.0 5.1 8.8 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 8.0 0.8 6.5 3.9 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Gulf In’l Services Qatar Fuel Qsc Qatar German Co Zad Holding Co Doha Bank Top Losers Al Khaleej Takaful Grp Qatar & Oman Invest. Qatar Navigation Qatari Investors Group Aamal Co Close Price 18.7 140.6 5.8 70.0 27.1 0.2 1.4 0.1 0.5 0.2 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.7 5.6 37.8 (10.2) (4.9) (4.9) (27.1) 12.5 (38.1) 3.4 (14.3) 85.3 43.9 283.3 12.8 39.6 NA 24.3 8.5 183.8 8.7 10.8 7.0 56.2 35.1 11.1 (0.7) (0.3) (1.9) (1.0) (0.3) (6.3) (4.1) (3.3) (2.9) (2.6) (18.4) (11.4) 0.5 (4.1) 27.8 (47.4) (26.6) (19.4) (38.7) (16.4) 38.8 48.5 57.1 78.4 535.5 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 41.2 42.6 12.9 17.3 14.0 Qatar DSM Index 9,500 20.0 9,112.0 10.0 8,000 1/Feb 0.0 15/Feb 1/Mar 15/Mar Index Volume (mn) 29/Mar 12/Apr 26/Apr Index Value Closing Level 3,106.4 5,927.0 3,106.1 3,079.3 1,928.7 1,096.0 1,783.2 1D Change (%) 0.2 0.2 (0.4) (1.2) (1.6) (0.8) (1.2) Buy (%) 32.8 36.2 69.0 8.3 22.7 31.0 Sell (%) 33.9 38.0 71.9 8.9 19.2 28.1 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE May 1 , 2018  Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) has appointed JODCO Lower Zakum Limited, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Japan’s INPEX Corporation, as the asset leader for Abu Dhabi’s Lower Zakum concession area. (Source: Arabian Business)  US Personal income increased by 0.3% YoY to USD 47.8bn in March18, while personal consumption expenditure grew 0.4% MoM in the same period. (Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis) Abu Dhabi based Etihad Airways CEO has announced that the company wants to remain a major global carrier despites re-sizing of its global business following record losses. (Source: Arabian Business)  US pending home sales index rose 0.4% MoM to a reading of 107.6% in March-18 due to shortage of properties for sale according to National Association of Realtors. (Source: Reuters) Saudi Arabian Airlines has selected IT provider, Sita to introduce IT infrastructure across 200 of the company’s offices located in 100 cities and airports in 60 countries. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Oman’s government is investing more than OMR 10.0b for economic diversification, which is predicted to create at least 20,000 new jobs in the near future, according to its Tanfeedh plans. (Source: Times of Oman)  Bahrain’s Investcorp and rehabilitation service provider VAMED is planning to construct a hospital complex on Abu Dhabi’s Reem Island which will include a rehabilitation center, as well as a hospital for women and children and a family medical center. (Source: Arabian Business)  Bahrain-based aluminum producer Aluminum Bahrain has successfully closed the first part of the second tranche of its EUR204.5mn (USD 247.0mn) Export Credit Agency covered financing facilities which will be used for its Line 6 expansion project. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Kuwait stock exchange has launched the first phase of its campaign in London for injecting foreign capitals in the national stock market boosting liquidity and impact positively on listed companies. (Source: GLOBAL NEWS    The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries oil output was down by 70,000 bpd to 32.1mn bpd in April-18 due to declining production in Venezuela and lower shipments from African producers according to Reuters survey. (Source: Reuters)  Eurozone annual growth rate of the broad monetary aggregate M3 decreased to 3.7% in March-18 from 4.2% in February-18. (Source: ECB)  German consumer prices index rose by 1.6% YoY in April-18, driven by a 1.2% YoY increase in energy prices and 3.4% YoY increase in food costs. (Source: Destatis)  Turkey’s foreign trade deficit increased by 28.8% YoY to USD 5.8bn in March-18 as exports increased by 7.7% to USD 15.6bn, while imports grew by 12.7% YoY to USD 21.4bn. (Source: Turk Stat)  Turkey’s Central Bank has raised its year-end inflation forecast to 8.4% from 7.9% considering a tight monetary policy stance. Inflation is expected to fluctuate between 7.2% and 9.6% in 2018 and stabilize at around 5.0% over the medium term. (Source: AA)  Turkey is expected to roll out a debt restructuring and social reforms package of TRY 22-24.0bn (USD 5.4- 5.9bn), according to the country’s Prime Minister. (Source: Reuters) Kuna.net) QATAR NEWS  Qatar signed a number of agreements and memoranda of understanding with Togo in order to enhance bilateral relations in various sectors, especially in the investment field. (Source: Gulf times)  Qatar Chamber in their meeting with Turkey’s Independent Industrialists’ and Businessmen’s Association (Musiad) evaluated ways to enhance co-operation relations in the economic and trade sectors. GCC NEWS  UAE and Japan has agreed to expand economic, political and defense cooperation and signed an investment protection agreement during the two-day visit of the Japanese Prime Minister to UAE. (Source: Arabian Business)  UAE’s Minister of Human Resources and Emiratization had discussions with 60 real estate developers and construction companies to urge them to put mechanisms and procedures in place for hiring UAE locals. (Source: Gulf times)  Italy’s Trade Commissioner has expressed confidence on the condition of Qatar’s construction sector by quoting that Italy’s exports of marble and stone to Qatar witnessed a 30.0% growth in 2017. (Source: Gulf times)  Qatar’s iconic hub of art, culture and entertainment, the Katara Cultural Village is expected to add more attractions with the ongoing Southern Expansion Project which include a high-tech planetarium, luxury shopping mall, exclusive shopping facility for children, and green hills. (Source: Gulf times)  Mesaieed Petrochemicals Holding Company recorded a 68.0% increase in net profit for the Q1-18 to QAR 357.0mn due to improved sales volumes and higher selling prices. (Source: Gulf times)  Aamal Company’s net profit increased by more than 1.0% YoY to QAR 115.8mn in Q1-18 supported by share of net profits from associates which increased 14x to QAR 31.2mn. Net margin has increased to 27.5% as compared to 16.6% a year ago. (Source: Gulf times)  Qatar fuel’s net profit increased by 71.0% YoY to QAR 301.0mn in Q118 led by overall growth in all product offerings along with efficiency enhancement and expense reduction efforts. (Source: Gulf times)  Ezdan Holding Group’s net profit declined by 89.1% YoY to QAR 103.0mn due to the sale of investment funds by some of its group subsidiaries. (Source: Gulf times)  Vodafone Qatar’s revenues increased 2.8% YoY to QAR 532.0mn in Q118 led by growth in postpaid subscribers and handset sales. (Source: Gulf (Source: Arabian Business)  UAE telecoms regulators are in talks with Microsoft and Apple to potentially lift the ban on free video and voice call apps Skype and FaceTime to help these companies expand in the region. (Source: Arabian Business)  Dubai based property developer Emaar Development has reported a 61.9% YoY increase in net profit to AED 819.0mn (USD 223.0mn) during Q1-18, reflecting strong construction progress focused on timely delivery. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai based Lootah Real Estate Development has completed and handed over its residential property located in International City Phase 3. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai based property developer MAG Lifestyle Development has successfully completed its six-month agreement with the luxury real estate network Gulf Sotheby's to handle its sales and marketing departments. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai based halal frozen food company, Al Islami Foods has announced that Mitsubishi Corporation has acquired a minority stake in the company aimed at increasing its frozen food market share in the GCC and other global markets. (Source: Arabian Business)  Abu Dhabi based advanced composite aero structures manufacturing, Strata Manufacturing has entered into an agreement with Boeing to manufacture composite empennage ribs for Boeing’s new 777X airplane. (Source: Trade Arabia) times)  Qatar Insurance Company’s retail arm QIC Insured has introduced various insurance products to cater to the SME segment and can be purchased online. (Source: Gulf times) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE May 1 , 2018 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.2108 USD/QAR 3.6415 109.3400 EUR/QAR 4.4091 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.3793 JPY/QAR 0.0333 USD/CHF 0.9909 GBP/QAR 5.0227 USD/CAD 1.2843 CHF/QAR 3.6749 AUD/USD 0.7530 CAD/QAR 2.8354 NZD/USD 0.7035 AUD/QAR 2.7420 USD/INR 66.1613 INR/QAR 0.0550 USD/TRY 4.0621 TRY/QAR 0.8965 USD/ZAR 12.4608 ZAR/QAR 0.2922 USD/BRL 3.5063 BRL/QAR 1.0386 FX Commentary The USD strengthened against a basket of major currencies yesterday, with the dollar index rising by 0.3% settling at 91.842. The strength in USD came after data indicated that the US core personal consumption expenditures price index inched closer towards the central bank target of 2.0%, strengthening the case for the central bank to move ahead with gradual rate hikes in the coming period. The GBP weakened, amid expectations that the recent batch of dismal macroeconomic data might induce the Bank of England to hold its rate hike plans for quite some time. The EUR declined against USD, as weaker than expected German retail sales weighed on the common currency. The JPY weakened against the USD, amid broad based gains in the greenback and as geopolitical tensions continued to ease in the Korean peninsula. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 1.70 1.75 1.91 2.36 2.78 (0.44) (0.38) (0.37) (0.33) (0.19) 2.25 2.30 2.45 2.65 3.02 4.0% SAIBOR NA 1.92 2.07 2.38 2.78 2.0% EIBOR 1.75 1.84 1.95 2.43 3.14 BMIBOR 1.63 1.93 2.43 2.78 3.28 NA NA 1.75 2.00 2.44 LIBOR EURIBOR QAIBOR KIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 6.0% 3.56% 3.29% 2.49% 2.80% 4.19% 4.41% 2.91% 2.94% 3.10% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 30 Yrs 5.01% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 4.0% US 27.8 (0.5) Turkey 198.2 UK 17.9 (7.8) Brazil 175.5 2.5 Germany 11.0 (0.5) Egypt 271.6 (81.6) France 18.3 (2.1) Abu Dhabi 64.4 3.9 Italy 91.0 (29.5) Bahrain 305.8 57.0 Greece 328.1 (174.5) Dubai 113.5 (22.5) Russia 134.2 3.9 Qatar 90.0 (9.1) Japan 25.9 (8.7) Saudi Arabia 89.9 6.4 2.75% 2.99% 2.95% 2.92% 2.0% 1.58% 2.28% 2.12% 1.96% 3.01% 2.55% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change 8.6 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event 11:30 UK Mortgage Approvals Period Survey Prior Mar 63.0k 63.9k 11:30 UK Markit UK PMI Manufacturing SA Apr 54.8 55.1 15:30 Canada GDP MoM Feb 0.30% (0.10%) 16:30 Canada Markit Canada Manufacturing PMI Apr - 55.7 16:45 US Markit US Manufacturing PMI Apr F 56.5 56.5 Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) Mesaieed Petrochemical Hold Qatar Fuel YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) NA NA NA 357.0 68.1 26.4 5,095.3 34.1 12.7 301.2 70.7 (6.2) Aamal Co NA NA NA 115.8 1.2 (21.8) 2,501.9 108.8 (3.8) 90.7 0.7 (60.4) Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Dev NA NA NA (6.3) NA NA Al Khaleej Takaful Group NA NA NA 5.8 (58.0) NA Qatar German Co For Medical NA NA NA (2.2) 1.1 (85.5) National Petrochemical Co NA NA NA 333.9 98.9 (14.6) Saudi Ind Investment Group NA NA NA 199.0 (35.7) (50.0) Mannai Corporation Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE May 1 , 2018 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS (As on 26th April 2018) Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing Qatar First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Mannai Corp. Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Investment Holding Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Alkhaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.1 2.8 0.0 11.2 3.7 6.8 5.6 5.2 0.0 4.0 7.1 4.0 6.9 4.5 8.3 6.0 6.2 4.4 5.8 0.0 0.0 6.7 9.3 6.1 5.4 0.0 4.4 4.6 4.1 3.9 2.2 7.7 8.1 4.4 0.0 5.8 3.5 4.6 6.6 4.0 6.8 4.5 0.0 8.6 5.5 4.4 0.0 3.4 4.0 6.9 5.8 6.0 4.6 P/B Ratio (x) 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.8 1.1 0.6 2.1 0.5 0.8 1.7 1.3 2.3 0.8 1.7 0.7 1.9 2.0 1.1 1.9 1.2 0.4 3.4 0.6 1.5 0.9 0.9 0.5 1.9 1.5 2.4 1.6 1.1 1.2 1.7 0.6 0.6 1.5 0.7 2.3 1.1 0.8 1.0 0.6 4.8 1.0 1.1 1.8 1.2 1.5 0.9 0.5 0.7 1.4 P/E Ratio (x) 10.2 24.1 19.0 7.5 (M) (‫)س‬ 7.2 13.3 153.5 (M) (‫)س‬ 10.5 10.2 10.4 24.5 11.1 4.3 26.5 14.2 18.2 14.2 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 10.6 4.6 12.2 13.9 40.5 11.6 19.7 19.7 13.4 17.0 10.0 11.1 17.4 20.0 15.4 27.8 13.5 12.8 20.8 8.3 17.4 29.3 8.5 12.3 13.0 (M) (‫)س‬ 18.7 11.6 9.6 14.7 11.4 13.0 EPS (QR) 3.0 1.5 0.6 3.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.5 2.7 0.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 10.2 5.5 14.5 0.3 5.8 11.1 2.5 9.7 1.2 9.7 (M) (‫)س‬ (M) (‫)س‬ 6.0 15.2 5.4 0.8 0.5 0.5 5.5 0.9 14.7 2.0 3.9 5.0 2.4 0.6 0.8 1.3 3.5 4.1 1.7 4.4 0.6 0.2 1.7 1.2 6.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.5 3.7 1.5 4.1 2.1 3.0 BV/Share (QR) 25.2 42.1 48.6 34.9 24.0 17.5 17.6 20.1 7.7 64.7 45.0 66.7 8.8 38.4 64.5 35.6 69.0 21.1 71.1 4.7 12.9 19.0 116.2 44.7 12.7 19.8 10.5 56.6 11.6 81.7 21.4 34.4 48.0 25.0 19.3 20.8 25.1 70.8 23.4 32.4 48.6 11.4 12.8 3.0 14.7 72.2 5.3 23.7 27.9 15.7 118.3 32.8 27.1 Stock Price (QR) 31.0 35.9 11.2 26.9 27.0 11.1 36.0 9.6 6.1 106.8 56.2 150.1 7.3 48.0 67.2 137.5 22.6 138.0 5.6 5.7 63.8 70.0 11.1 18.5 5.7 108.0 17.1 197.0 34.6 39.0 55.5 11.5 13.0 37.0 47.5 52.9 36.7 11.1 7.1 14.6 79.6 9.3 42.7 14.6 60.5 - Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫ا س ت ثمار ال قاب ضة‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4