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Bangladesh: Major Economic Indicators - May 2019

IM Insights
By IM Insights
4 years ago
Bangladesh: Major Economic Indicators - May 2019

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  1. Volume 05 /2019 May 2019 Major Economic Indicators: Monthly Update Monetary Policy Department BANGLADESH BANK
  2. Monetary Policy Department Major Economic Indicators : Monthly Update Contents Executive summary Page No. 1-2 1. Monetary and credit developments 3 2. Reserve money developments 4 3. CPI and inflation 5 4. 5. Liquidity position of the scheduled banks Financial sector prices a) Weighted average yields on bills and bonds b) Interest rate spread 6 6. Capital market developments 9 7. Agricultural credit and non-farm rural credit 10 8. Industrial and SME loans a) Industrial term loans b) Outstanding position of SME loans Industrial production a)Quantum index of medium and large-scale manufacturing industry b)Quantum index of small scale manufacturing industry Exports a) Annual exports b) Monthly exports c) Category-wise breakdown of exports Imports a) Custom based import, import LCs settlement and LCs opening b) Sector-wise fresh opening, settlement and outstanding LCs 9. 10. 11. 7 8 11 11 12 12 13 13 14 15 16 c) Projected data on opening of import LCs & probable liabilities against BTB LCs 16 12. Workers’ remittances 17 13. Foreign exchange holdings by Bangladesh Bank and Commercial Banks 17 14. Foreign aid 18 15. Exchange rate movements 19 16. Balance of payments 20 17. Public finance a) Government tax revenue collections b) Sale and repayment of National Savings Certificates (NSC) c) Government budget financing 21 22 23 Food situations 23 18. Appendix Comments and suggestions may be sent to: monjurul.haque@bb.org.bd mnurul.islam@bb.org.bd sadia.sultana@bb.org.bd nabila.fahria@bb.org.bd 24 -25
  3. Monetary Policy Department Major Economic Indicators : Monthly Update Executive Summary 1. Movement of monetary indicators Broad money(M2) growth had increased but private sector credit growth was slow in March 2019. Broad money (M2) increased by 10.86 percent (y-o-y) in March 2019 which was higher than 9.25 percent of the same month of the previous year. Net domestic assets and net foreign assets increaseed by 13.66 percent and 2.46 percent respectively in March 2019. Private sector credit growth was recorded at 12.42 percent in March 2019 which was lower than 17.98 percent of the same month of the previous year and marginally lower than 12.54 percent of the previous month. 2. Inflation scenario Twelve month average inflation decreased in March 2019 while point to point inflation increased. Twelve-month average inflation decreased to 5.48 percent in March 2019 from 5.49 percent in February 2019, while the point-to-point inflation increased to 5.55 percent in March 2019 from 5.47 percent in February 2019. 3. State of the financial sector Weighted average interest rate spread of all scheduled banks remained unchanged at the end of March, 2019, while call money rate decreased at 4.53 percent up to May 09, 2019. The spread between the weighted average interest rate on advances and deposits of all banks remained unchanged since January 2019 up to March 2019 at 4.15 percent . The weighted average call money rate in the inter-bank money market was 4.57 percent in April 2019 which decreased to 4.53 percent up to May 09, 2019. 4. External sector performance Export growth increased during July-April, 2018-19 Merchandise commodity export increased to USD 33.94 billion during July-April, 2018-19 Import growth increased during July-March, 2018-19. Custom based import during July-March, 2018-19 increased by 5.12 percent and stood at which was 11.61 percent higher than USD 30.41 billion of July-April 2017-18, according to EPB data. USD 45.79 billion which was USD 43.56 billion during July-March, 2017-18. Fresh opening of import LCs during July-March 2018-19 decreased by 20.89 percent as compared to the same period of the previous year and stood at USD 44.27 billion. Of the sectoral distribution of total LCs opening, the share of industrial raw materials is 33.77 percent, intermediate goods is 11.57 percent, machinery for miscellaneous industry is 11.54 percent, consumer goods is 10.32 percent, capital machinery is 8.48 percent and petroleum & petroleum products is 6.34 percent during July- March , 2018-19. 1
  4. Monetary Policy Department Major Economic Indicators : Monthly Update External sector performance (contd.) Workers’ remittances inflow increased during July-April, 2018-19. Total receipts of workers’ remittances during July-April, 2018-19 increased by USD 1.21 Current account deficit narrowed down during July-March, 201819. Current account balance recorded a deficit of USD 4.23 billion during July-March, 2018-19 as compared to USD 6.49 billion of July-March, 2017-18. Current account deficit has narrowed mainly due to a lower trade deficit and higher inflow of workers’ remittances. Reciepts of both total and net foreign aid were higher during July-March, 2018-19. The total foreign aid disbursements during July-March, 2018-19 increased and stood at USD 4.52 billion compared to that of July-March, 2017-18. Net receipts of foreign aid also increased and stood at USD 3.59 billion during July-March, 2018-19 as compared to the same period of the previous year. Forex reserves stood at 31.02 billion on May 09, 2019. billion or 10.01 percent and stood at USD 13.30 billion against USD 12.09 billion of July-April, 2017-18. Receipt of workers’ remittances in March 2019 stood lower at USD 1.43 billion against USD 1.46 billion of March, 2019. The gross foreign exchange reserves of BB stood at USD 31.94 billion as of end April 2019, as compared to USD 31.75 billion as of end March 2019. As per the latest available data, gross foreign exchange reserves decreased to USD 31.02 billion as on May 09, 2019. 5. Developments in the fiscal sector NBR tax revenue collection increased at a slow pace during July-March, 2018-19. NBR Tax Revenue collection during July-March, 2018-19 stood at Taka 153419.89 crore which was higher by Taka 10142.62 crore or 7.08 percent against the collection of Taka 143277.27 crore during July-March, 2017-18. 6. Credit disbursement and industrial production The disbursement of agricultural credit increased by 2.27 percent while non-farm rural The general index of industrial production and disbursement of industrial term loans have increased, while outstanding SME loan and the disbursement of non-farm rural credit decreased during the period under review. credit decreased by 6.27 percent during July-March, 2018-19 as compared to July-March, 2017-18. Outstanding SME loans provided by banks and non-bank financial institutions at the end of December 2018 decreased by 7.00 percent compared to the same quarter of the previous year. Disbursement of industrial term loans increased by 35.65 percent and stood at Taka 24256.13 crore and recovery decreased by 4.01 percent during the second quarter of FY19 as compared to the corresponding period of the previous fiscal year. The general index of industrial production (medium & large scale manufacturing) stood at 388.11 during July-January, 2018-19 recording an increase of 15.56 percent from the index of 335.86 during July-January, 2017-18. Note: The information furnished in this executive summary and the subsequent pages are provisional and subject to revision. 2
  5. Monetary Policy Department Major Economic Indicators : Monthly Update 1. Monetary and credit development (Taka in Crore) Outstanding stock June, 2017 Particulars 1 Changes in outstanding stock June, 2018 R March, 2019 P June, 2018 over June, 2017 March, 2019 over June, 2018 March, 2019 over March, 2018 March, 2018 over June, 2017 March, 2018 over March, 2017 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2 A. Net Foreign Assets of the banking system 266697.00 264674.40 269473.10 -2022.60 (-0.76) 4798.70 (+1.81) 6401.70 (+2.43) -3625.60 (-1.36) 8925.50 (+3.51) B. Net Domestic Assets of the banking system 749379.00 845306.70 899106.30 95927.70 (+12.80) 53799.60 (+6.36) 108064.50 (+13.66) 41662.80 (+5.56) 80364.60 (+11.31) a) Domestic credit 890670.30 1021626.70 1096260.00 130956.40 (+14.70) 74633.30 (+7.31) 132054.80 (+13.70) 73534.90 (+8.26) 118963.90 (+14.07) Public sector 114613.80 114095.10 116573.90 -518.70 (-0.45) 2478.80 (+2.17) 23800.20 (+25.65) -21840.10 (-19.06) -13826.80 (-12.97) Government (net) 97333.60 94895.00 92511.90 -2438.60 (-2.51) -2383.10 (-2.51) 17936.50 (+24.05) -22758.20 (-23.38) -15736.70 (-17.42) Other Public 17280.20 19200.10 24062.00 1919.90 (+11.11) 4861.90 (+25.32) 5863.70 (+32.22) 918.10 (+5.31) 1909.90 (+11.73) Private sector 776056.50 907531.60 979686.10 131475.10 (+16.94) 72154.50 (+7.95) 108254.60 (+12.42) 95375.00 (+12.29) 132790.70 (+17.98) b) Other items (net) -141291.30 -176320.00 -197153.70 -35028.70 -20833.70 -23990.30 -31872.10 -38599.30 C. Broad money (A+B) 1016076.00 1109981.10 1168579.40 93905.10 58598.30 114466.20 38037.20 89290.10 (+9.24) (+5.28) (+10.86) (+3.74) (+9.25) i) Currency outside banks 137531.80 140917.50 144646.50 3385.70 (+2.46) 3729.00 (+2.65) 16513.40 (+12.89) -9398.70 (-6.83) 14023.20 (+12.29) ii) Deposits 878544.20 969063.60 1023932.90 90519.40 (+10.30) 54869.30 (+5.66) 97952.80 (+10.58) 47435.90 (+5.40) 75266.90 (+8.85) a) Demand deposits 102546.60 113976.30 107066.40 11429.70 (+11.15) -6909.90 (-6.06) 9927.40 (+10.22) -5407.60 (-5.27) 8640.20 (+9.76) b) Time deposits 775997.60 855087.30 916866.50 79089.70 (+10.19) 61779.20 (+7.22) 88025.40 (+10.62) 52843.50 (+6.81) 66626.70 (+8.74) Source: Statistics Department, BB. Note:- Figures in brackets indicate percentage changes. P = provisional, R = Revised. Broad money The broad money (M2) recorded an increase of Taka 114466.20 crore or 10.86 percent at the end of March 2019 against the increase of Taka 89290.10 crore or 9.25 percent at the end of March 2018. Of the sources of broad money, net domestic assets (NDA) increased by Taka 108064.50 crore or 13.66 percent and net foreign assets (NFA) increased by Taka 6401.70 crore or 2.43 percent at the end of March 2019 as compared to the same month of the previous year. Domestic credit The domestic credit recorded an increase of Taka 132054.80 crore or 13.70 percent at the end of March 2019 against the increase of Taka 118963.90 crore or 14.07 percent at the end of March 2018. Credit to the private sector and public sector recorded a growth of 12.42 percent and 25.65 percent respectively in March 2019 as compared to the same month of the previous year. Trends of domestic credit growth (year-on-year) Trends of broad money growth (year-on-year) 12.0 15.5 14.5 Percentage 15.0 (+10.86) 10.5 10.0 9.5 (+9.25) 12.5 Mar. Feb. Jan. Dec. Nov . Jul. Feb. Jan. Dec. Mar. 3 Oct. 12.0 11.0 Nov. (+13.70) 13.0 11.5 Oct. (+14.07) 13.5 8.0 Sep. 2018-19 14.0 8.5 Aug . 2017-18 Sep. 9.0 Jul. Percentage 11.0 2018-19 Aug . 2017-18 11.5
  6. Monetary Policy Department Major Economic Indicators : Monthly Update 2. Reserve money development (Taka in crore) Outstanding stock Particulars 1 June, 2017 2 Changes in outstanding stock June, 2018 R March, 2019 P June 2018 over June 2017 March, 2019 over June, 2018 March, 2019 over March, 2018 March, 2018 over June, 2017 March, 2018 over March, 2017 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Net Foreign Assets of Bangladesh Bank 252027.00 253509.80 251391.30 1482.80 (+0.59) -2118.50 (-0.84) -1514.50 (-0.60) 878.80 (+0.35) 10536.90 (+4.35) Net Domestic Assets of Bangladesh Bank* -27367.60 -19766.80 -26301.00 7600.80 (+27.77) -6534.20 (-33.06) 14354.40 (+35.31) -13287.80 (-48.55) 9100.30 (+18.29) Claims on Govt.(net) 12977.70 22572.20 11760.60 9594.50 -10811.60 1692.20 -2909.30 10287.20 Claims on other public 2157.80 2367.80 2354.30 210.00 (+9.73) -13.50 (-0.57) 140.40 (+6.34) 56.10 (+2.60) 364.50 (+19.71) Claims on DMBs 5054.40 5582.50 6937.10 528.10 (+10.45) 8079.80 1354.60 (+24.27) -7875.30 1872.20 (+36.96) 10649.60 10.50 (+0.21) -10445.10 -72.90 (-1.42) -1478.50 Other items (net) -47557.50 -39477.70 -47353.00 224659.40 233743.00 225090.30 9083.60 (+4.04) -8652.70 (-3.70) 12839.90 (+6.05) -12409.00 (-5.52) 19637.20 (+10.20) 151265.20 154940.50 159500.30 3675.30 (+2.43) 4559.80 (+2.94) 19324.40 (+13.79) -11089.30 (-7.33) 15701.10 (+12.61) i) Currency outside banks 137531.80 140917.50 144646.50 3385.70 (+2.46) 3729.00 (+2.65) 16513.40 (+12.89) -9398.70 (-6.83) 14023.20 (+12.29) ii) Cash in tills 13733.40 14023.00 14853.80 Deposits held with BB 73394.20 78802.50 65590.00 289.60 (+2.11) 5408.30 (+7.37) 830.80 (+5.92) -13212.50 (-16.77) 2811.00 (+23.34) -6484.50 (-9.00) -1690.60 (-12.31) -1319.70 (-1.80) 1677.90 (+16.19) 3936.10 (+5.78) 11130.58 27575.80 9931.73 16445.22 -17644.07 6197.19 -7396.05 -3897.61 4.52 4.75 5.19 0.23 0.44 0.23 0.44 -0.04 Reserve money Currency Issued Of which: Excess reserves Money multiplier Source: Statistics Department, BB. Note:- Figures in brackets indicate percentage changes. P = provisional, R = Revised. *Note :- The change in Net Domestic Assets (NDA) is calculated with the formula : Reserve Money Reserve money recorded an increase of Taka 12839.90 Trends of reserve money growth (year-on-year) crore or 6.05 percent at the end of March 2019 against the 28.0 increase of Taka 19637.20 crore or 10.20 percent at the 2017-18 2018-19 24.0 Percentage end of March 2018. Of the sources of reserve money, net domestic assets of Bangladesh Bank increased by Taka 14354.40 crore or 35.31 percent but net foreign assets of 20.0 16.0 (+10.20) 12.0 8.0 Bangladesh Bank decreased by Taka 1514.50 crore or 0.60 (+6.05) 4.0 percent at the end of March 2019 as compared to March which was 4.75 at the end of June 2018. 4 Mar. Feb. Jan. Dec. Nov. Oct. Sep. Jul. Money multiplier stood at 5.19 at the end of March 2019 Aug. 0.0 2018.
  7. Monetary Policy Department Major Economic Indicators : Monthly Update 3. CPI and Inflation Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Rate of Inflation at National Level (Base : FY2005-06=100) Twelve-Month Average Basis General Food Point to Point Basis Non-food General Food Non-food Index Inflation Index Inflation Index Inflation Index Inflation Index Inflation Index Inflation 2010-11 156.59 10.91 170.48 14.11 138.77 6.21 161.38 11.14 175.24 13.84 143.60 7.16 2011-12 170.19 8.69 183.65 7.72 152.94 10.21 170.32 5.54 179.74 2.57 158.25 10.20 2012-13 181.73 6.78 193.24 5.22 166.97 9.17 184.04 8.06 194.58 8.26 170.53 7.76 2013-14 195.08 7.35 209.79 8.57 176.22 5.54 196.86 6.97 210.15 8.00 179.82 5.45 2014-15 207.58 6.41 223.80 6.68 186.79 5.99 209.17 6.25 223.43 6.32 190.88 6.15 2015-16 219.86 5.92 234.77 4.90 200.74 7.47 220.74 5.53 232.87 4.23 205.19 7.50 2016-17 231.82 5.44 248.90 6.02 209.92 4.57 233.86 5.94 250.35 7.51 212.72 3.67 July 232.86 5.45 250.28 6.23 210.53 4.29 236.61 5.57 254.20 6.95 214.05 3.53 August 233.97 5.50 251.75 6.48 211.17 4.03 239.92 5.89 259.60 7.32 214.68 3.75 September 235.15 5.55 253.38 6.72 211.77 3.81 244.36 6.12 267.38 7.87 214.84 3.44 October 236.31 5.59 254.97 6.89 212.40 3.65 245.86 6.04 269.73 7.62 215.26 3.61 November 237.45 5.64 256.44 7.03 213.11 3.56 244.85 5.91 267.10 7.09 216.33 4.10 December 238.58 5.70 257.92 7.17 213.78 3.50 245.03 5.83 267.06 7.13 216.79 3.85 January 239.73 5.76 259.52 7.26 214.35 3.51 248.13 5.88 271.05 7.62 218.73 3.23 February 240.84 5.80 261.05 7.30 214.94 3.54 247.81 5.72 270.25 7.27 219.04 3.36 March 241.96 5.82 262.54 7.31 215.56 3.57 248.65 5.68 271.27 7.09 219.64 3.52 April 243.06 5.83 264.03 7.32 216.18 3.58 248.85 5.63 271.42 7.03 219.90 3.49 May 244.14 5.82 265.39 7.25 216.90 3.63 245.80 5.57 265.27 6.56 220.83 4.08 June 245.22 5.78 266.64 7.13 217.76 3.74 246.82 5.54 265.33 5.98 223.09 4.87 July 246.31 5.78 267.95 7.06 218.57 3.82 249.65 5.51 269.91 6.18 223.66 4.49 August 247.41 5.74 269.24 6.95 219.41 3.90 253.07 5.48 275.09 5.97 224.84 4.73 September 248.51 5.68 270.45 6.74 220.39 4.07 257.62 5.43 281.86 5.42 226.54 5.45 October 249.62 5.63 271.59 6.52 221.45 4.26 259.13 5.40 283.44 5.08 227.96 5.90 November 250.71 5.58 272.77 6.37 222.44 4.38 258.00 5.37 281.24 5.29 228.21 5.49 December 251.81 5.54 273.94 6.21 223.42 4.51 258.13 5.35 281.17 5.28 228.60 5.45 January 252.93 5.51 275.15 6.02 224.44 4.71 261.58 5.42 285.50 5.33 230.91 5.57 February 254.06 5.49 276.37 5.87 225.44 4.89 261.36 5.47 284.96 5.44 231.10 5.51 March 255.21 5.48 277.66 5.76 226.41 5.03 262.45 5.55 286.78 5.72 231.25 5.29 2017-18 2018-19 Source: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, Ministry of Planning. CPI(Base:FY2005-06=100) Inflation 6.3 12 month average Point to point 6.1 6.0 Percentage The point to point general inflation increased to 5.55 percent in March 2019 from 5.47 percent in February 2019, mainly due to increase in food inflation offsetting the decrease in non-food inflation. 5.8 5.7 5.5 5.4 5 Mar.19 Feb. 19 Jan. 19 Dec. 18 Nov. 18 Oct. 18 Sep. 18 Aug. 18 Jul. 18 Jun.18 May 18 Mar.18 5.2 Apr.18 The twelve month average general inflation moderated to 5.48 percent in March 2019 due to decrease in food inflation offsetting the rise in non-food inflation. The twelve month average general inflation was lower by 0.12 percentage point in March 2019 than the target of 5.60 percent in FY19.
  8. Monetary Policy Department Major Economic Indicators : Monthly Update 4. Liquidity position of the scheduled banks (Taka in crore) As of end June, 2018 Bank Group 1 As of end March 2019 P Total Liquid Assets Cash in tills + balances with Sonali Bank Ltd. 2 3 Balances with Bangladesh Bank Total Liquid Assets Minimum Required Liquid Local Currency1/ Foreign Currency 4a 4b 5 6=(3+4a+4b+5) 7 CRR * State-owned Banks Unencumbered approved securities Assets 2/ Excess Reserve (un-invested cash) 101322.05 2407.54 15799.22 1.53 223.28 65033.59 83465.17 52542.64 1504.38 0.00 1577.86 0.00 3.92 0.00 1581.78 1577.86 Private Banks (Other than Islamic) 111089.82 10013.52 28915.65 1042.56 5103.94 66794.24 111869.90 95999.46 Islamic Banks 28150.26 2987.62 11999.70 1793.53 1004.57 9504.90 27290.32 23901.90 Foreign Banks 22200.86 707.77 2931.66 1473.93 5793.10 12785.14 23691.59 9627.80 Total 264267.37 16116.44 61224.09 4311.56 12128.80 154117.87 247898.76 183649.66 (+6.50) (+24.70) (+1.74) (+4.89) (+62.17) Specialised Banks Source : Department of Offsite Supervision, BB. Comment: The data shown on the above table are based on the regulatory purpose of Bangladesh Bank. Note :- Figures in brackets indicate sectoral share in the total liquid assets. P=provisional, R= Revised. *CRR is calculated @ 5.5% from April, 2018. 1/ Balances with Bangladesh Bank in local currency = CRR + Excess Reserve. 2/ Minimum required liquid assets is the sum of CRR and SLR. Total liquid assets of the scheduled banks decreased by 6.19 percent and stood at Taka 247898.76 crore as of end March, 2019 which was Taka 264267.37 crore at the end of June, 2018. The minimum required liquid assets of the scheduled banks was Taka 183649.66 crore as of end March, 2019. Sectoral distribution of total liquid assets as of end March, 2019 in the form of cash in tills & balances with Sonali Bank Ltd., CRR, excess reserves, foreign currency balances with Bangladesh Bank and un-encumbered approved securities were 6.50 percent, 24.70 percent, 1.74 percent, 4.89 percent and 62.17 percent respectively. Liquid assets & minimum required liquidity Sectoral distribution of total liquid assets (as of end March 2019) Liquid assets Minimum required liquid assets 2950 Unencumbered approved securities, 62.17% 2650 2350 Billion taka Foreign Currency Balances with BB, 4.89% 3250 2050 1750 1450 1150 850 Excess Reserve, 1.74% 6 Mar. 19 Feb. 19 Jan. 19 Dec. 18 Nov. 18 Oct. 18 Sep. 18 Jul.18 Aug. 18 Jun.18 Apr.18 Cash in tills+balances with SBL, 6.50% May.18 250 Mar.18 CRR, 24.70% 550
  9. Monetary Policy Department Major Economic Indicators : Monthly Update 5. Financial sector prices: a) Weighted average yields on bills and bonds: Treasury Bills BGTB BB Bill Repo* 91-Day 182-Day 364-Day 2-Year 5-Year 10-Year 15-Year 20-Year 07-Day 14-Day 30-Day Call Reverse Money Repo Rate 2017-18 July 4.05 4.28 4.42 4.98 5.86 6.91 ---- ---- 2.98 2.98 2.96 6.75 4.75 3.72 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 2.98 2.98 2.97 6.75 4.75 3.77 September 3.85 4.01 4.25 4.82 5.68 6.91 7.71 8.02 2.98 2.98 2.97 6.75 4.75 3.91 October 3.33 ---- ---- ---- 5.63 6.94 ---- ---- 2.98 2.98 2.97 6.75 4.75 3.87 November 3.06 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 2.98 2.98 2.97 6.75 4.75 3.82 December 3.38 3.86 4.35 5.03 5.90 7.17 7.93 8.25 2.98 2.98 2.97 6.75 4.75 3.92 January 3.36 3.86 4.25 5.12 5.95 7.35 8.19 8.48 2.98 2.98 2.97 6.75 4.75 3.90 --- --- --- --- --- 2.98 2.98 2.96 6.75 4.75 4.11 4.00 5.26 5.82 7.32 8.08 8.45 2.98 2.98 2.97 6.75 4.75 4.40 August February --- --- --- March 3.23 3.63 April 2.78 --- --- 5.33 5.66 7.08 --- 7.87 2.49 2.49 --- 6.00 4.75 4.31 May 0.86 --- 2.94 3.42 --- 6.71 7.24 8.02 0.21 0.20 --- 6.00 4.75 2.96 June 3.67 4.20 4.27 4.71 5.98 7.41 7.99 8.82 0.16 0.17 --- 6.00 4.75 3.41 July 2.54 3.75 3.87 4.94 5.55 6.97 7.34 8.04 0.06 0.05 --- 6.00 4.75 2.17 August 0.92 --- --- 3.37 4.00 --- --- --- 0.03 0.02 --- 6.00 4.75 3.31 September 2.23 3.41 3.54 4.07 5.34 6.95 7.09 7.94 0.02 --- --- 6.00 4.75 4.22 October 0.96 2.10 2.78 --- --- --- --- --- 0.01 0.02 --- 6.00 4.75 3.65 November 0.69 1.29 2.46 3.50 4.33 6.94 7.42 8.13 0.02 --- --- 6.00 4.75 3.50 December January 2.18 2.96 3.40 4.33 5.35 7.53 7.69 8.42 0.02 0.02 --- 6.00 4.75 4.09 2.88 3.17 4.30 4.81 5.79 7.59 7.67 8.43 0.02 --- --- 6.00 4.75 4.12 February 2.84 3.23 3.78 4.73 5.90 --- --- --- --- --- --- 6.00 4.75 4.36 March 3.48 3.67 4.28 5.27 6.35 7.54 7.75 8.37 --- --- --- 6.00 4.75 4.54 April 4.31 4.65 5.02 5.83 6.93 7.74 8.05 8.41 --- --- --- 6.00 4.75 4.57 May@ 4.56 --- --- 6.32 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 6.00 4.75 4.53 2018-19 DMD, BB . ---- = there was no auction. @ = upto May 9th , 2019. Source: MPD and * The Repo rate is re-fixed at 6.00% with effect from 15.04.2018. The weighted average yields on 91-Day increased to 4.56 percent up to May 09, 2019 compared to April, 2019. The weighted average yields on 2-Year, BGTB increased to 6.32 percent in May, 2019 from 5.83 percent April, 2019. The weighted average yield on 07-Day BB Bill up to January, 2019 stood at 0.02 percent, which is the same as that of December, 2018. The weighted average yield on 14-Day BB Bill in December, 2018 stood at 0.02 percent. The weighted average yield on 30-Day BB Bill has been discontinued since in March, 2018. The weighted average call money rate in the inter-bank money market up to May 09, 2019 decreased and stood at 4.53 percent compared to that of April, 2019. Yield on Treasury Bills Reverse Repo W.ave. yield in percent Repo* Call Money Rate 7.5 6.8 6.0 5.3 5.5 91-Day 182-Day 364-Day 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 4.5 2.0 3.8 1.5 3.0 u 7 May. 19 (Up to 09) April. 19 Feb.19 Mar. 19 Jan.19 Dec.18 Nov.18 Oct.18 Sep.18 Aug.18 Jul.18 Jun.18 Apr. 19 May. 19 (Up to 9) Feb. 19 Mar. 19 Jan. 19 Dec. 18 Nov. 18 Oct. 18 Sep. 18 Aug. 18 Jul. 18 0.5 Jun. 18 1.5 May.18 1.0 2.3 May 18 W. average rate in percent Repo, Reverse Repo & Call Money Rate
  10. Monetary Policy Department Major Economic Indicators : Monthly Update b) Interest rate spread: Sector-wise break down of interest rate spread in the banks All other sectors SME Agriculture Large Industries (excluding SME) All Banks Interest rate on deposits Non-Bank FIs Services Interest Interest Interest Interest Interest Interest rate on Spread rate on Spread rate on Spread rate on Spread rate on Spread rate on Spread advances advances advances advances advances advances Interest rate on deposits Interest rate on Spread advances 2017-18 July 4.89 9.51 4.62 10.37 5.48 9.26 4.37 9.00 4.11 9.01 4.12 9.43 4.54 8.34 11.61 3.27 August 4.93 9.46 4.53 10.30 5.37 9.22 4.29 8.97 4.04 8.95 4.02 9.40 4.47 8.33 11.59 3.26 September 4.90 9.45 4.55 10.09 5.19 9.27 4.37 8.90 4.00 8.96 4.06 9.52 4.62 8.31 11.49 3.18 October 4.89 9.39 4.50 9.85 4.96 9.25 4.36 8.89 4.00 8.95 4.06 9.37 4.48 8.33 11.35 3.02 November 4.90 9.30 4.40 9.83 4.93 9.15 4.25 8.87 3.97 8.78 3.88 9.23 4.33 8.39 11.34 2.95 December 4.91 9.35 4.44 9.93 5.02 9.19 4.28 8.86 3.95 8.87 3.96 9.26 4.35 8.48 11.41 2.93 January 5.01 9.42 4.41 9.97 4.96 9.26 4.25 8.88 3.87 8.97 3.96 9.38 4.37 8.63 11.42 2.79 February 5.18 9.55 4.37 10.09 4.91 9.39 4.21 8.84 3.66 9.14 3.96 9.67 4.49 8.96 11.71 2.75 March 5.30 9.70 4.40 10.22 4.92 9.55 4.25 8.69 3.39 9.54 4.24 9.80 4.50 9.35 11.98 2.63 April 5.43 9.89 4.46 10.29 4.86 9.78 4.35 8.83 3.40 9.74 4.31 10.15 4.72 9.72 12.12 2.40 May 5.51 9.96 4.45 10.34 4.83 9.85 4.34 8.83 3.32 9.79 4.28 10.23 4.72 9.99 12.53 2.54 June 5.50 9.95 4.45 10.46 4.96 9.82 4.32 8.89 3.39 9.82 4.32 10.37 4.87 10.14 12.67 2.53 July 5.40 9.71 4.31 10.33 4.93 9.55 4.15 8.93 3.53 9.46 4.06 9.92 4.52 10.09 12.85 2.76 August 5.36 9.63 4.27 10.20 4.84 9.48 4.12 8.90 3.54 9.39 4.03 9.88 4.52 9.98 12.86 2.88 September 5.27 9.54 4.27 9.55 4.28 9.54 4.27 8.88 3.61 9.65 4.38 9.85 4.58 9.88 12.79 2.91 October 5.25 9.47 4.22 10.01 4.76 9.34 4.09 8.50 3.25 9.31 4.06 9.86 4.61 9.89 12.68 2.79 November 5.30 9.50 4.20 10.04 4.74 9.37 4.07 8.46 3.16 9.34 4.04 9.88 4.58 9.90 12.68 2.78 December 5.26 9.49 4.23 10.08 4.82 9.34 4.08 8.12 2.86 9.37 4.11 9.89 4.63 9.95 12.65 2.70 January 5.34 9.49 4.15 10.03 4.69 9.36 4.02 8.09 2.75 9.35 4.01 9.81 4.47 10.06 12.56 2.50 February 5.34 9.49 4.15 10.03 4.69 9.35 4.01 8.18 2.84 9.38 4.04 9.80 4.46 10.14 12.55 2.41 March 5.35 9.50 4.15 9.95 4.60 9.39 4.04 8.14 2.79 9.46 4.11 9.94 4.59 10.24 12.56 2.32 2018-19 Source: Statistics Department, Bangladesh Bank . The spread between the weighted average interest rate on advances and deposits of all banks remained unchanged since January 2019 up to March 2019 at 4.15 percent, but the spread of NBFIs gradually decreased from 2.79 perecnt in october 2018 to 2.32 perecnt in March 2019. Weighted average interest rate on deposits of all banks and NBFIs increased to 5.35 percent and 10.24 percent respectively at at the end of March, 2019 as compared to February, 2019. Sector-wise breakdown of interest rate spread Institution-wise breakdown of interest rate spread 5.50 5.20 Banks SME NBFIs Service Large Industry Agriculture 5.00 8 Mar. 19 Feb.19 Jan.19 Dec.18 Nov.18 Oct.18 Sep.18 2.50 Mar. 18 Feb.19 3.00 Mar. 19 Jan.19 Dec.18 Nov.18 Oct.18 Sep.18 Aug,18 Jul. 18 Jun.18 Apr.18 2.00 May.18 2.40 3.50 Aug,18 2.80 4.00 Jul. 18 3.20 Jun.18 3.60 4.50 May.18 4.00 Apr.18 W. Ave. rate in percent 4.40 Mar. 18 W. Ave. rate in percent 4.80
  11. Monetary Policy Department Major Economic Indicators : Monthly Update 6. Capital market developments: Annual capital market developments in DSE (Taka in crore ) General Index / Issued Capital Market DSE (Incl. Mutual Turnover during and Debentures Capitalisation Broad Index Funds/Deb.) the Year Enlisted issues Calender Year 2010 445 66436.00 347250.20 400991.28 8290.41 2011 501 87890.50 261673.00 156055.63 5257.61 2012 515 94987.60 240356.00 100108.49 4219.31 2013 529 99978.50 264779.00 95269.21 4266.55 2014 546 105492.60 325925.00 118852.15 4864.96 2015 559 110608.10 315976.00 103139.86 4629.64 2016 560 114530.00 341244.10 119157.12 5036.05 2017 569 119416.20 422894.50 216959.71 6244.52 Monthly capital market developments in DSE End Month (Taka in crore) DSE Broad Index Enlisted issues (Incl. Mutual Funds/Deb.) Issued Capital and Debentures Market Capitalisation Turnover during the month (DSEX) January'18 568 119361.80 418513.30 10072.16 6039.78 February'18 568 119471.20 404438.90 7679.69 5804.94 March'18 570 119743.70 391718.60 6714.94 5597.44 April'18 571 120109.90 400628.70 11494.73 5739.23 May'18 572 120816.40 379959.60 9667.63 5343.88 June'18 572 121966.50 384734.80 9635.70 5405.46 July'18 572 122308.30 384144.90 18676.95 5302.64 August'18 573 122409.10 396226.10 11495.26 5600.64 September'18 575 122850.00 387684.20 14810.27 5368.96 October'18 577 123192.50 383131.50 12737.05 5284.13 November'18 578 123377.60 381782.40 11673.79 5281.25 December'18 578 124293.70 387295.30 8705.64 5385.64 January'19 579 124552.90 416360.40 22347.95 5821.01 February'19 580 124634.50 415073.80 13779.14 5711.83 March'19 581 124754.70 411965.30 9391.79 5491.91 Source : Dhaka Stock Exchange The DSE Broad Index (DSEX) at the end of March Trends in market capitalisation and indices of DSE 5000 2019 stood lower at 5491.91 compared to that of end 4400 February, 2019. The total market capitalization of all shares and debentures of the listed securities at the end 7150 Capitalisation in billion taka (LHS) DSEX (RHS) 4700 6800 6450 4100 6100 3800 5750 of March, 2019 also stood lower at Taka 411965.30 3500 crore, from Taka 415073.80 crore at the end of 2900 5400 5050 3200 4350 9 Mar.19 Jna.19 Feb.19 Dec.18 Oct.18 Nov.18 Sep.18 July'18 Aug.18 3300 June'18 3650 2000 Apr. 18 4000 2300 May'18 2600 Mar. 18 February, 2019. 4700
  12. Monetary Policy Department Major Economic Indicators : Monthly Update 7. Agricultural credit and non-farm rural credit a. Agricultural credit (Taka in crore) Disbursement Month Recovery Disbursement 2018-19P July Recovery 2017-18R b. Non-farm rural credit (Taka in crore) Disbursement Recovery Month Disbursement 2018-19P Recovery 2017-18R 1278.34 July 250.39 308.73 297.87 335.27 956.46 989.01 August 200.41 299.24 263.52 263.16 1088.32 1238.11 September 286.28 354.60 353.37 459.92 1644.50 1362.77 October 334.56 425.33 324.52 251.57 1470.68 1558.77 1520.36 November 432.62 452.32 467.35 444.64 2190.22 2271.04 1898.83 1546.22 December 565.59 642.80 626.03 442.45 1482.05 1567.01 1476.89 1354.08 January 387.58 345.25 469.54 390.33 1634.04 1327.87 1277.06 1283.49 February 378.48 688.12 541.19 437.27 March 660.62 353.58 386.94 309.72 July-March 3496.54 (-6.27) 3869.96 (+16.06) 3730.34 (+19.17) 3334.34 (+32.04) 900.73 1236.12 August 738.83 921.04 September 1117.00 1388.23 October 1523.87 1623.11 November 1690.91 December January February 1276.20 March 1489.81 1339.18 1306.81 1487.93 July-March 12767.45 (+2.27) 13144.29 (+8.99) 12483.83 (+1.78) 12060.30 (+10.77) Source: Agricultural Credit Department. Figures in brackets indicate percentage changes over the corresponding period of the preceding year. P = Provisional, R= Revised. Programmed level for disbursement of agricultural credit and non-farm rural credit was Tk.21800.00 crore for FY19. Note:- Agricultural credit includes credit to Crops, Irrigation Equipment, Agri Equipment, Live-Stock & Poultry Firm, Fisheries, Grain Storage & Marketing. Non-farm Rural Credit includes credit to Poverty Alleviation and Others. *Previously, Agriculture crdit data included the 'Others' head of Non-farm Rulral credit. Agricultural credit disbursement 2700 Non-farm rural credit disbursement 2017-18 2018-19 1030 2017-18 930 2400 2018-19 830 730 In crore taka In crore taka 2100 1800 1500 1200 630 530 430 330 900 Mar. Feb. Jan. Dec. Nov. Oct. Sep. Jul. Mar. Feb. Jan. Dec. Nov. Oct. Sep. Aug. 30 Jul. 130 300 Aug. 230 600 Disbursement of agricultural credit increased by 2.27 percent however, that of non-farm rural credit decreased by 6.27 percent during July-March, 2018-19 compared to that of July-March, 2017-18. The banks disbursed a total of Taka 162.64 billion to both the sectors during July-March, 2018-19. The recovery of the agriculture credit and non-farm rural credit increased by 8.99 percent and 16.06 percent respectively during July-March, 2018-19 as compared to July-March, 2017-18. Overdue and outstanding credit in agricultural sector (Taka in crore) P 2019 End Month March Overdue Outstanding 6370.48 (-6.45) 40922.85 (+1.24) 2018 Overdue as % of outstanding 15.57 R Overdue Outstanding 6809.91 (+5.34) 40420.62 (+8.87) Overdue as % of outstanding 16.85 Source: Agricultural Credit Department. Note:- Figures in brackets indicate percentage changes over the corresponding period of the preceding year. P = Provisional, R = Revised. The position of overdue agricultural credit as percentage of total outstanding credit improved, decreasing from 16.85 percent in March, 2018 to 15.57 percent in March, 2019. 10
  13. Monetary Policy Department Major Economic Indicators : Monthly Update 8. Industrial and SME loans a) Industrial term loans (Taka in crore) Yearly Period LSI MSI SSCI Total LSI MSI SSCI Total FY 2013-14 29046.19 9585.93 3679.20 42311.32 28999.63 9423.48 3383.58 41806.69 FY 2014-15 45468.67 9689.37 4625.66 59783.70 32801.39 9897.35 4842.07 47540.81 FY 2015-16 49252.75 9349.24 6936.69 65538.69 34217.02 8709.42 5298.84 48225.28 FY 2016-17 46282.46 9123.52 6749.09 62155.08 37861.57 8708.67 5524.32 52094.57 2473.49 (+3.35) 1659.56 (+30.44) 15513.74 (+24.88) 18639.32 FY2017-18 July-September October-December Quarterly The disbursement of total industrial term loans during October-December, 2018 increased by 35.65 percent and stood at Taka 24256.13 crore as compared to Taka 17881.23 crore during October-December, 2017. However recovery of industrial term loans decreased by 4.01 percent and stood at Taka 17891.76 crore during October-December, 2018 against Taka 18639.32 crore during the same period of the previous fiscal year. Recovery Disbursement January-March April-June 11786.87 (+18.71) 2434.86 (+23.14) 1544.26 (+35.64) 15765.99 (+20.86) 11380.69 (+29.96) 11932.42 (-15.82) 3352.06 2596.75 17881.23 13816.51 2712.16 2110.65 (+9.26) (+11.34) (-8.65) (+40.33) (+26.89) (+24.43) 12966.45 (+9.19) (+36.26) 1871.36 2141.72 16979.53 12356.44 2130.74 2032.60 16519.78 (-18.54) (+32.96) (+7.58) (+11.63) (-2.53) (+57.31) (+13.56) 16033.06 2425.40 1682.96 20141.42 15440.15 2168.16 1911.93 19520.24 (+55.61) (+36.19) (+0.92) (+46.46) (+88.53) (+8.85) (+51.31) (+70.55) 16378.13 FY2018-19 Outstanding amount of industrial term loans at the end of December, 2018 stood at Taka 220737.60 crore. At the same time the overdue of industrial term loans was 31869.79 crore, which is 14.44 percent of the outstanding amount. July-September October-December 15528.89 2048.61 1533.72 19111.22 12553.33 2084.94 1739.86 (+31.75) (-15.86) (-0.68) (+21.22) (+10.30) (-15.71) (+4.84) (+5.57) 19272.07 2704.03 2280.03 24256.13 13635.89 2111.83 2144.04 17891.76 (+61.51) (-19.33) (-12.20) (+35.65) (-1.31) (-22.13) (+1.58) (-4.01) Overdue End Period Outstanding LSI MSI SSCI Total LSI MSI SSCI Total December, 2017 18133.38 7261.41 2927.96 28322.75 139368.03 31072.90 14575.19 185016.12 December, 2018 19999.13 8208.14 3662.52 31869.79 172436.86 30837.79 17462.95 220737.60 Source: SME & Special Programmes Department, Bangladesh Bank. Note:- Figures in brackets indicate overdue as % of outstanding. LSI=Large Scale Industries, MSI=Medium Scale Industries, SSCI= Small Scale & Cottage Industries. b) Outstanding position of SME loans The total SME loans by the banks and non-bank financial institutions decreased by Taka 14165.39 crore or 7.00 percent and stood at Taka 188245.46 crore at the end of December, 2018 as compared to Taka 202410.85 crore at the end of December, 2017. Although the increase of SME loan of Specialized Banks and Non-Bank Financial Institutions by 30.65% percent and 1.91 percent respectively, Overall SME loan decreased due to the decreased of 15.70% by State Owned Banks, 5.79% by Private Banks and 13.98% by Foreign Banks. SME loans as percentage of total loans stood at 19.15 percent at the end of December, 2018 as compared to 18.94 percent of December, 2017. The percentage share of SME loans from different categories of banks and of nonbank financial institutions to total SME loan as of end December, 2018 are shown in the pie diagram. (Tk. in crore) Banks/NBFIs Quarter Ending December, 2017 Types of Loans State Owned Banks Private Banks Foreign Specialised Non-Bank Banks Banks Fin. Ins. Total Loans 152751.96 813283.24 31038.62 SME Loans 33685.31 155778.17 (22.05) (19.15) Total 23200.14 48475.82 1068749.78 2399.93 962.35 9585.09 202410.85 (7.73) (4.15) (19.77) (18.94) Total Loans 158538.07 642067.01 31646.07 22941.57 48715.48 903908.20 March, 2018 SME Loans 31642.37 (19.96) 149047.93 (23.21) 2539.74 (8.03) 1052.10 (4.59) 9365.16 (19.22) 193647.30 (21.42) Total Loans 164163.83 767114.17 33940.58 24177.10 49855.29 1039250.97 June, 2018 SME Loans 33415.43 (20.35) 147476.22 (19.22) 1996.06 (5.88) 1160.31 (4.80) 9467.31 (18.99) 193515.33 (18.62) Total Loans 153841.70 673430.45 33582.01 23885.69 56213.40 September, 2018 SME Loans 27028.01 (17.57) 142441.41 (21.15) 1958.62 (5.83) 1257.36 (5.26) 9397.28 (16.72) 940953.25 182082.68 (19.35) Total Loans 162520.88 706047.74 35369.80 24601.75 54531.96 983072.13 December, 2018 SME Loans 28395.45 (17.47) 146759.96 (20.79) 2064.49 (5.84) 1257.34 (5.11) 9768.22 (17.91) 188245.46 (19.15) -15.70 -5.79 -13.98 30.65 1.91 -7.00 % changes of SME loans at the end of December, 2018 over December, 2017 Source: SME & Special Programmes Department, Bangladesh Bank. Note:- Figures in brackets indicate SME loans as percentage of total loans. Institution-wise sharing of SME loans (December, 2018) Foreign Banks, 1.10% Specialised Banks, 0.67% Private Banks, 77.96% Non-Bank Financial Institutions, 5.19% State Owned Banks, 15.08% 11
  14. Monetary Policy Department Major Economic Indicators : Monthly Update 9. Industrial production Quantum index of medium and large-scale manufacturing industry (Base: 2005-06=100) Monthly Index Major Industry Group Weight (%) General January'18 Percentage change January'19 P July-January, 2017 July-January, 2018 January'18 over January'17 July-January, 2018 over July-January, 2017 P 100.00 361.63 401.35 335.86 388.11 10.98 15.56 Wearing apparel 34.84 486.28 381.05 449.18 10.43 17.88 Textile Food products 14.07 10.84 440.36 192.83 507.74 192.10 550.24 192.37 504.35 192.23 533.36 -0.38 8.37 -0.07 5.75 Pharmaceuticals and medicinal chemical 8.23 484.99 644.15 480.27 661.97 32.82 37.83 Non-metalic mineral products 7.12 390.86 429.24 366.27 418.96 9.82 14.38 Leather and related products 4.40 309.36 340.62 298.88 360.55 10.10 20.63 Chemicals and chemical products Basic metals 3.67 3.15 112.19 187.73 137.98 187.10 108.04 183.42 143.54 187.31 22.99 -0.34 32.86 2.12 Tobacco products 2.92 145.39 139.93 137.31 137.08 -3.76 -0.17 Fabricated metal products except machinery 2.32 275.60 299.16 272.01 294.87 8.55 8.40 Others* 8.44 284.56 292.71 274.64 291.08 2.86 5.99 Source: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics. *Others means residual items. P = Provisional, R=Revised. The general index of industrial production (medium & large scale manufacturing) increased by 15.56 percent and stood at 388.11 during July-January, 2018-19 over JulyJanuary, 2017-18. 420 401.35 400 380 Monthly Indices 361.63 360 340 320 300 280 260 Ja n/19 Dec/18 Nov/18 Oct/18 Sep/18 Aug/18 Jul/18 Jun/18 Ma y/18 Apr/18 Ma r/18 Feb/18 240 Ja n/18 During July-January, 2018-19 compared to July-January, 2017-18 increase was recorded for indices of pharmaceuticals & medicinal chemical by 37.83%, chemicals and chemical products by 32.86%, wearing apparel by 17.88%, non-metallic mineral products by 14.38%, leather and related products by 20.63%, fabricated metal products except machinery by 8.40%, food products by 5.75% and basic metals by 2.12%. On the other hand, marginal decrease was recorded for indices of tobacco products by 0.17% and textile by 0.07% during the period under report as compared to the same period of the preceding year. Quantum index of medium & large scale manufacturing industries (Base:2005-06=100) Quantum index of small scale manufacturing industries (Base:1995-96=100) 600 580 The general index of small scale manufacturing industry 540 during the second quarter (October-December, 2018) of 520 FY19 increased by 0.62 percent and stood at 587.78 from 500 the index of 584.15 during the third quarter (July- 480 460 September, 2018) of FY19, it also increased by 10.45 440 percent as compared to the same quarter of FY18. FY16 FY17 FY18 Q2 Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 Q4 420 Q3 Indices 560 FY19 12
  15. Monetary Policy Department Major Economic Indicators : Monthly Update 10. Exports A. Annual exports (USD in million) 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 27027.36 (+11.22) 30186.62 (+11.69) 31208.94 (+3.39) 34257.18 (+9.77) *R 2017-18* 34655.90 (+1.16) 36668.17 (+5.81) 2016-17 B. Monthly exports 2018-19 P* 2017-18 *R July 3581.48 2987.66 August 3213.54 3640.94 September 3145.58 2034.13 October 3711.18 2843.07 November 3421.98 3057.11 December 3426.11 3353.11 January February 3679.72 3383.20 3408.85 3072.15 March 3340.23 3054.65 3034.21 33937.23 (+11.61) 2954.71 30406.38 (+6.41) Month April July-April . Export target is set USD 39000.00 million for FY 2018-19 of which the strategic target for July-April, 2018-19 was USD 31909.00 million. Source : Export Promotion Bureau (EPB). R=Revised; P=Provisional. * Revised according to the revised definition (Primary Commodities+Manufactured Commodoties) of commodity exports by EPB. Note:- Figures in brackets indicate percentage changes over the corresponding period of the preceding year. Merchandise commodity export shipments in April 2019 increased by 0.08 billion or 2.69 percent to USD 3.03 billion from USD 2.95 billion in April 2018 according to EPB data. This was however lower than USD 3.34 billion of March, 2019. Total merchandise commodity export during July-April, 2018-19 increased by USD 3.53 billion or 11.61 percent to USD 33.94 billion compared to USD 30.41 billion during July-April, 2017-18. Export performance Cumulative growth of Export 25 3950 2018-19 2017-18 2018-19 2017-18 20 3350 Percentage 3050 2750 2450 15 11.61 10 5 2150 1850 6.41 Latest available data on category-wise breakdown of exports are shown in the next page. 13 Apr. Mar. Feb. Jan. Dec. Nov. Oct. Sep. Jul. Apr. Mar. Feb. Jan. Dec. Nov. Oct. Sep. Aug. Jul. 0 Aug. (Million USD) 3650
  16. Monetary Policy Department Major Economic Indicators : Monthly Update C. Category-wise breakdown of exports (US$ in million ) July-April, 2018-19 Particulars July-April, 2017-18 Changes during July-April, 2018-19 over July-April, 2017-18 In amount In percent 1. Woven garments 14405.76 12765.27 1640.49 +12.85 2. Knitwear 14084.94 12540.29 1544.65 +12.32 3. Specialized Textiles 124.98 91.89 33.09 +36.01 4. Agricultural Products* 790.90 543.18 247.72 +45.61 5. Jute and Jute Goods 695.52 889.74 -194.22 -21.83 6. Leather and Leather Products 837.07 916.74 -79.67 -8.69 7. Frozen and live fish 446.48 434.97 11.51 +2.65 8. Chemical Products 175.21 121.27 53.94 +44.48 9. Plastic Products 100.35 81.19 19.16 +23.60 10. Engineering products 290.86 292.04 -1.18 -0.40 11. Others** 1985.16 1729.80 255.36 +14.76 TOTAL 33937.23 30406.38 3530.85 11.61 Source : Export Promotion Bureau (EPB). Note:- * = Includes tea, vegetables, tobacco, cut flower and foliage, fruits, spices, dry food & others , **Others = residual items. Category-wise breakdown of exports shows that, during July-April, 2018-19 exports of agricultural products (+45.61%), chemical products (+44.48%), specialized textiles (+36.01%), plastic products (+23.60%), woven garments (+12.85%), knitwear (+12.32%) experienced significant increase and frozen & live fish (+2.65%) experienced marginal increase. On the other hand, jute and jute goods (-21.83%), leather & leather products (-8.69%) and engineering products (-0.40%) experienced positive growth experienced negative growth during July-April, 2018-19 as compared to that of July-April, 2017-18. The category-wise share of total exports during July-April, 2018-19 and July-April, 2017-18 are shown in the following pie diagrams. Category-wise share of total exports (July-April, 2018-19) Knitwear, 37.72% Jute and Jute Goods, 1.85% Frozen and live fish, 1.23% Category-wise share of total exports (July-April, 2017-18) Knitwear, 37.23% Leather and Leather Products, 2.27% Leather and Leather Products, 2.79% Others, 16.04% Woven garments, 38.75% Agricultural Products*, 2.13% Jute and Jute Goods, 2.69% Frozen and live fish, 1.34% Others, 16.53% Woven garments, 37.86% 14 Agricultural Products*, 1.55%
  17. Monetary Policy Department Major Economic Indicators : Monthly Update 11. Imports a) Custom based import, import LCs settlement and LCs opening (USD in million) Month ………………… ………....FY Custom based import (c&f) R Import LCs settlement Import LCs opening 2015-16 2014-15 2015-16 2014-15 2015-16 2014-15 43122.50 (+5.94) 40703.70 (+0.21) 40076.19 (+4.22) 38455.24 (+3.41) 43335.33 (+0.62) 43068.76 (+2.99) 2017-18 2016-17 2017-18 2016-17 2017-18 2016-17 July 4325.60 2941.50 4046.06 2804.36 4709.68 3097.80 August 4701.20 3796.60 3994.93 4353.94 5422.31 4203.03 September 4157.70 3531.30 3785.62 4451.61 4571.17 3471.54 October 5342.10 4124.70 4368.49 3530.65 4681.94 4119.23 November 5222.20 4221.60 4397.00 3882.78 16365.97* 3801.95 December 4692.10 3994.10 4068.44 3565.47 4483.35 4329.31 January 5255.00 4301.70 4986.34 3962.34 5432.58 4441.16 February 5019.10 3760.90 4195.08 3294.44 4536.93 3775.34 March 4842.40 4311.20 4565.76 3790.07 5753.41 4430.74 April 5453.40 4170.50 4590.19 3738.15 4770.68 4297.71 May 5597.30 4352.00 4788.25 3624.66 4676.62 4150.92 Month June 4257.20 3499.10 3744.41 3274.28 4016.51 4007.21 July-June 58865.30 (+25.23) 47005.20 (+9.00) 51530.56 (+16.39) 44272.76 (+10.47) 69421.15 (+44.25) 48125.92 (+11.05) 2018-19P 2017-18R 2018-19P 2017-18R 2018-19P 2017-18R July 5079.10 4325.60 4686.46 4046.06 5065.09 4709.68 August 4458.90 4701.20 3837.80 3994.93 4952.94 5422.31 September 5160.20 4157.70 4307.33 3785.62 4736.59 4571.17 October 5546.70 5342.10 4811.93 4368.49 4755.92 4681.94 November 5081.60 5222.20 4902.14 4397.00 5170.86 16365.97* December 4744.20 4692.10 4773.53 4068.44 4639.52 4483.35 January 6120.80 5255.00 4810.99 4986.34 6116.16 5432.58 February March July-March 4703.90 4893.60 45789.00 (+5.12) 5019.10 4842.40 43557.40 (+24.51) 4771.86 4315.69 41217.74 (+7.32) 4195.08 4565.76 38407.72 (+14.19) 3836.17 4992.97 44266.23 (-20.89) 4536.93 5753.41 55957.34 (+56.87) Month Source: National Board of Revenue (NBR), Foreign Exchange Operations Department of Bangladesh Bank , NA=Not Available. Note:- Figures in brackets indicate percentage changes over the corresponding period of the preceding year. P = Provisional, R= Revised. 2. Customs based c&f data incorporated in *Including USD 11380 million for Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant. Custom based import during July-March, 2018-19 stood higher by USD 2.23 billion or 5.12 percent and stood at USD 45.79 billion against USD 43.56 billion of July-March, 201718. Cumulative growth of custom based import 56 2017-18 49 2018-19 42 Percent Settlement of import LCs during July-March, 2018-19 increased by 7.32 percent and stood at USD 41.22 billion against USD 38.41 billion of July-March, 2017-18. 35 24.51 28 21 Fresh opening of import LCs during July-March, 2018-19 decreased by 20.89 percent and stood at USD 44.27 billion compared to USD 55.96 billion of July-March, 2017-18. The decrease in opening of import LCs is a base effect of the large fund that came in for the Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant project in November 2017. 14 5.12 7 15 Mar Feb Jan Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul 0
  18. Monetary Policy Department Major Economic Indicators : Monthly Update b) Sector-wise fresh opening, settlement and outstanding of import LCs Sector-wise comparative statistics of fresh opening, settlement and outstanding of import LCs during July-March, 2018-19 and July-March, 2017-18 are shown below: (USD in million) July-March, 2018-19 Sectors / Commodities Fresh opening Settlement of of LCs LCs A. Consumer goods 4570.25 P Percentage changes in July-March, 2018-19 over July-March, 2017-18 July-March, 2017-18 Outstanding LCs at the end period 4192.57 2428.83 Outstanding Outstanding LCs at the Fresh opening Settlement of LCs at the end end period of LCs LCs period Fresh opening of LCs Settlement of LCs 6764.21 6017.66 2600.99 -32.43 -30.33 -6.62 B. Intermediate goods 5122.95 4158.35 2768.15 3717.15 2982.59 2196.48 37.82 39.42 26.03 C. Industrial raw materials 14950.14 14732.14 7310.37 14837.22 13425.03 7492.83 0.76 9.74 -2.44 D. Capital machinery 3753.44 3612.68 6361.14 5188.68 3989.90 7055.78 -27.66 -9.45 -9.85 E. Machinery for misc. inds. 5109.77 4130.53 3590.78 4600.89 3765.53 2623.08 11.06 9.69 36.89 F. Petroleum & petro.prodts. 2808.60 2809.61 1055.70 2653.20 2239.99 810.16 5.86 25.43 30.31 G. Others* 7951.09 7581.86 15884.09 18195.99 5987.03 15366.04 -56.30 26.64 3.37 44266.23 41217.74 39399.06 55957.34 38407.72 38145.37 -20.89 7.32 3.29 3167.17 -0.08 6.25 -6.66 Total 2956.33 of which back to back 6438.13 6133.65 6443.29 5772.79 Source: Foreign Exchange Operations Department, Bangladesh Bank. P = Provisional. The developments of sectoral share in total LCs opening during July-March, 2018-19 and July-March, 2017-18 are shown in the following pie diagrams. Sectoral shares in LC Opening (July-March, 2017-18) Sectoral shares in LC Opening (July-March, 2018-19) Petroleum & petro.products , 6.34% Others , 17.96% Consumer goods, 10.32% Consumer goods, 12.09% Petroleum & Intermediate petro.products , 4.74% goods, 11.57% Machinery for misc. industry, 11.54% Capital machinery, 8.48% Others , 32.52% Intermediate goods, 6.64% Machinery for misc. industry, 8.22% Capital machinery, 9.27% Industrial raw materials, 33.77% Industrial raw materials, 26.52% Sector-wise detailed statistics of fresh opening, settlement and outstanding of import LCs during July-March, 2018-19 and July-March, 2017-18 are given in the appendix. C) Projected data on opening of import LCs and probable liabilities against back to back LCs of authorised dealer banks (In million USD) Month Opening of import LCs Probable liabilities of banks against back to back LCs May'19 4865.68 1054.72 June'19 4951.63 1043.74 July'19 5061.53 1046.13 May-July, 2019 14878.83 3144.58 Source: All authorized dealer banks, compiled by Monetary Policy Department (MPD), Bangladesh Bank. Data on projection of opening of import LCs and probable liabilities against back to back LCs are USD 14.88 billion and USD 3.15 billion respectively during May-July, 2019. The mentioned liability is around 59.41 percent of foreign currency holdings (Nostro account balance+Investment in OBU+FC balance with Bangladesh Bank) of banks as on May 19, 2019. 16
  19. Monetary Policy Department Major Economic Indicators : Monthly Update 12. Workers’ remittances Annual and monthly trends of remittances (USD in million) 2015-16 2016-17 15316.91 (+7.65) 14931.18 (-2.52) 12769.45 (-14.48) 20 2018-19 P 2017-18 R 15 July 1318.18 1115.57 August 1411.05 1418.58 1139.66 1239.11 1180.44 1206.91 1597.21 1317.73 1458.68 1434.05 13303.02 (+10.01) 856.87 1162.77 1214.75 1163.82 1379.79 1149.08 1299.77 1331.33 12092.33 (+17.55) July-April Source : Statistics Department, Bangladesh Bank. 2017-18 2018-19 17.55 10 10.01 5 Apr. Mar. Feb. Jan. Dec. Nov. Oct. Sep. Aug. 0 Jul. September October November December January February March April 25 Percentage Month Monthly Remittances Cumulative growth of workers' remittance inflow 2014-15 Annual Remittances Total receipts of workers’ remittances during July-April, 2018-19 increased by USD 1.21 billion or 10.01 percent and stood at USD 13.30 billion against USD 12.09 billion of JulyApril, 2017-18. Receipt of workers’ remittances in April 2019 stood lower at USD 1.43 billion against USD 1.46 billion of Note:- Figures in brackets indicate percentage changes over the same period of the previous year. P = Provisional; R = Revised. March, 2019. 13. Foreign exchange holdings by Bangladesh Bank and Commercial Banks (a) Gross foreign exchange reserves of Bangladesh Bank(BB): The gross foreign exchange reserves of BB stood at USD 31.94 billion (with ACU liability of USD 1.24 billion) as of end April 2019, as compared to USD 31.75 billion (with ACU liability of USD 0.59 billion) as of end March 2019. The current foreign exchange reserves (less ACU liability) is sufficient to pay import liability of 6.03 months; according to the average of the previous 12 months (April, 2018-March, 2019) import liability is of USD 5.09 billion per month on an average basis. (b) Gross foreign exchange balances held by Commercial Banks(CBs): The gross foreign exchange balances held by commercial banks stood at USD 3.94 billion as of end April, 2019 which was marginally lower than USD 4.09 billion as of end March, 2019. It was higher than the balance of USD 3.12 billion at the end of April, 2018. (US$ in million) A. O utstanding stock at the e nd of the ye ar 2013-14 21507.99 (+40.44) Month / Year July August September October November December January February M arch April M ay B. Outstanding June stock at the end Month / Year of the month July August September October November 2014-15 25025.25 (+16.35) 2015-16 30168.23 (+20.55) 2017-18 32993.98 33596.25 32816.59 33452.90 32623.86 33226.86 32694.69 33368.99 32403.15 33096.38 32348.69 32943.46 2018-19P 32105.45 32926.51 31957.74 32077.96 2016-17 30039.29 31165.06 31385.87 31895.31 31370.88 32092.19 31724.17 32556.66 32215.19 32518.77 32245.69 33492.95 2017-18 32993.98 33596.25 32816.59 33452.90 31056.04 32623.86 December 32016.25 33226.86 January 31279.69 32694.69 February 32235.68 33368.99 M arch 31753.29 32403.15 April 31937.51 33096.38 Source : Accounts & Budgeting Departm ent, Bangladesh Bank. 17
  20. Monetary Policy Department Major Economic Indicators : Monthly Update 14. Foreign aid Month Project Total Payment Net Food Project Total Payment Aid Aid Aid (Principal) Foreign Aid Aid Aid (Principal) Foreign Aid Aid FY2017-18 R Month July 0.00 366.95 366.95 August 4.12 123.65 127.77 September 3.08 388.79 391.87 October 5.12 573.69 578.81 November 8.29 254.73 263.02 December 5.85 883.55 January 0.00 February 0.00 March April May 0.00 June 0.00 26.46 (+33.23) July-June (US$ in million) Net Food FY2016-17 257.39 0.00 142.27 142.27 89.60 52.67 44.77 83.00 0.00 158.64 158.64 45.18 113.46 124.51 267.36 8.44 211.84 220.28 85.41 134.87 86.78 492.03 0.00 251.48 251.48 79.00 172.48 71.88 191.14 0.00 174.22 174.22 71.88 102.34 889.40 94.16 795.24 5.22 442.98 448.20 75.95 372.26 477.15 477.15 108.84 368.31 0.00 144.05 144.05 81.57 62.48 328.88 328.88 47.56 281.32 0.00 431.83 431.83 42.86 388.97 0.00 574.62 574.62 176.36 398.26 6.20 344.93 351.13 111.94 239.19 0.00 322.23 322.23 89.93 232.30 0.00 145.79 145.79 80.74 65.05 370.46 370.46 76.39 294.07 0.00 315.41 315.41 67.92 247.49 1434.35 1434.35 81.67 1352.68 0.00 748.16 748.16 62.50 685.66 6099.02 6125.48 1112.41 5013.08 19.86 3511.60 3531.46 894.55 2636.91 (+73.68) (+73.45) (+24.35) (+90.11) (-37.76) (+2.74) (+2.36) (+3.15) (+2.10) 109.56 257.39 Month FY2018-19 July 0.00 267.34 267.34 August 0.00 401.25 September 5.71 322.55 October 0.00 November 0.00 December January 109.56 P FY2017-18 R 127.52 139.82 0.00 366.95 366.95 401.25 48.32 352.93 4.12 123.65 127.77 44.77 83.00 328.26 153.67 174.59 3.08 388.79 391.87 124.51 267.36 457.38 457.38 91.97 365.41 5.12 573.69 578.81 86.78 492.03 430.60 430.60 76.40 354.20 8.29 254.73 263.02 71.88 191.14 0.00 1008.99 1008.99 94.76 914.23 5.85 883.55 889.40 94.16 795.24 0.00 387.79 387.79 122.24 265.54 0.00 477.15 477.15 108.84 368.31 February 0.00 790.18 790.18 50.06 740.12 0.00 328.88 328.88 47.56 281.32 March July-March 0.00 449.71 449.71 165.15 284.56 0.00 574.62 574.62 176.36 398.26 5.71 4515.79 4521.50 930.09 3591.41 26.46 3971.98 3998.44 864.42 3134.03 (-78.42) (+13.69) (+13.08) (+7.60) (+14.59) (+33.23) (+72.53) (+72.19) (+26.49) (+91.25) Source : Bangladesh Bank & Ministry of Finance, P = Provisional; R = Revised Total foreign aid disbursements during July-March, 2018- Foreign Aid Total Aid Net Aid 5000 19 increased by USD 0.52 billion or 13.08 percent 4521.50 4500 billion. 4000 Million USD compared to July-March, 2017-18 and stood at USD 4.52 After principle repayment of USD 0.93 billion, the net receipts of foreign aid stood at USD 3.59 billion during 3998.44 3591.41 3500 3134.03 3000 2500 July-March, 2018-19 as compared to USD 3.13 billion of 2000 July-March, 2017-18. 1500 July-March, 2018-19 18 July-March, 2017-18
  21. Monetary Policy Department Major Economic Indicators : Monthly Update 15. Exchange rate movements: (Taka/USD) Month Avg.1/ Month End3/ FY 2016-17 Month (Rupee/USD) Month Avg.1/ Month End3/ FY 2017-18 Month End2/ FY 2016-17 Month End2/ FY 2017-18 July August September 78.4000 78.4000 80.6262 80.6598 67.0340 64.0773 78.4000 78.4000 78.4000 78.4000 80.6937 80.7354 80.7000 80.8000 66.9813 66.7875 64.0154 65.7604 October 78.4010 78.4161 80.8202 80.8810 66.8566 64.7745 November 78.5417 78.7233 81.2550 82.3000 68.5260 64.4332 December 78.8030 78.7004 82.5520 82.7000 68.1241 63.9273 January 78.8573 79.0741 82.8150 82.9000 67.8125 63.6878 February 79.2353 79.3700 82.9196 82.9600 66.7375 65.1031 March 79.5398 79.6797 82.9600 82.9600 64.9325 66.1031 April 79.8376 80.2300 82.9746 82.9800 64.2170 66.7801 May June 80.4896 80.5850 80.5609 80.5995 83.3846 83.7010 83.7000 83.7000 64.5459 64.7379 67.4526 68.5753 Month FY 2017-18 FY 2018-19 FY 2017-18 FY 2018-19 July 80.6262 80.6598 83.7472 83.7500 64.0773 68.6068 August 80.6937 80.7000 83.7500 83.7500 64.0154 70.7329 September 80.7354 80.8000 83.7500 83.7500 65.7604 72.5474 October 80.8202 80.8810 83.8167 83.8500 64.7745 73.9936 November 81.2550 82.3000 83.8735 83.9000 64.4332 69.9159 December 82.5520 82.7000 83.9000 83.9000 63.9273 69.7923 January 82.8150 82.9000 83.9417 83.9500 63.6878 71.0333 February 82.9196 82.9600 84.0417 84.1500 65.1031 71.1953 March 82.9600 82.9600 84.2081 84.2500 66.1031 69.1713 April 82.9746 82.9800 84.3390 84.4500 66.7801 1/ 2/ Source : Statistics Department and Forex Reserve and Treasury Management Department, Bangladesh Bank & Exchange Dealer's Association (BAFEDA). 69.8368 3/ Bangladesh Foreign Note:- Exchange rate represents the mid-value of buying and selling rates. Bangladesh Taka has depreciated by 0.89 percent against the US dollar at the end of April 2019 from its level of end June 2018. Indian Rupee (INR) appreciated by 1.81 percent against US dollar as compared to end June 2018. As per the latest available data, graphical presenatation of exchange rate of Bangladesh Taka (BDT) and Indian Rupee (INR) against the US Dollar (USD) and BDT against the INR are shown below in charts: 19
  22. Monetary Policy Department Major Economic Indicators : Monthly Update 16. Balance of payments (BOP) (USD in million) Particulars July-March, 2018-19 P July-March, 2017-18R -11928 -13143 30439 27157 Imports f.o.b(including EPZ) Services Credit Debit Primary income Credit Debit Of which:Official interest payment Secondary income Official transfers Private transfers of which : Workers' remittances ( current a/c. portion) 42367 40300 -2680 5048 -2589 3250 136 110 1960 602 12198 20 12178 11701 1919 445 11054 39 11015 10543 Current account balance -4234 -6487 188 165 Trade balance Exports f.o.b(including EPZ) Capital account 7728 5839 -1824 -1809 188 165 4209 5491 1339 1100 147 168 2723 309 218 4082 4314 3220 846 865 1005 1118 -2616 161 1129 -1085 -252 549 297 1522 -380 1142 Errors and omissions -492 -270 Overall balance -329 -1101 Reserve assets 329 1101 Capital transfers Financial account i) Foreign direct investment(net)* ii) Portfolio investment (net) of which : Workers' remittances ( financial a/c. portion) iii) Other investment(net) Medium and long-term (MLT) loans MLT amortization payments Other long-term loans (net) Other short-term loans (net) Trade credit (net) DMBs & NBDCs(net) Assets Liabilities Bangladesh Bank(net) Assets Liabilities 329 1101 -1054 -1466 -725 -365 Source : Statistics Department, Bangladesh Bank . Note:- Both of exports and imports are compiled on the basis of customs data. P=Provisional; R = Revised. * FDI is calculated as net, deducting disinvestment, repayments of loans & loss. Trade balance recorded a lower deficit of USD 11.93 billion during July-March, 2018-19 as compared to the deficit of USD 13.14 billion during July-March, 2017-18. Current account balance has improved to lower deficit mainly due to lower trade deficit and higher inflow of workers’ remittances. Overall balance incurred a deficit of USD 0.33 billion during July-March, 2018-19 as compared to the deficit of USD 1.10 billion during July-March, 2017-18. 20
  23. Monetary Policy Department Major Economic Indicators : Monthly Update 17. Public finance a) Government tax revenue collections (Taka in crore) Annual tax revenue collections 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016 NBR Tax Revenue 79403.11 (75600.00) 3229.36 (3452.00) 82632.47 (79052.00) 95058.99 (92370.00) 3631.58 (3915.00) 98690.57 (96285.00) 109151.31 (112259.00) 4120.00 (4565.00) 113271.31 (116824.00) 120819.86 (125000.00) 4612.64 (5178.00) 125432.50 (130178.00) 135700.70 (135028.00) 4821.57 (5648.00) 140522.27 (140676.00) 155518.72 (150000.00) 5642.46 (5400.00) 161161.18 (155400.00) Non-NBR Tax Revenue1/ Total Tax Revenue Note:- Figures in brackets indicate the target of revenue collection. Non-NBR Tax NBR Tax Revenue Customs duties VAT Income Tax others* Total 1 2 3 4 5=(1+..+4) Revenue1/ 6 (Taka in crore) Non-NBR Total Tax Tax Revenue NBR Tax Revenue Total Tax Revenue Collections Customs duties VAT Income Tax others* Total 1 2 3 4 5=(1+..+4) 6 7=(5+6) 7=(5+6) 2017-18 P Revenue1/ Collections 2016-17 July 1908.89 5806.52 2991.95 2518.29 13225.65 1305.28 14530.93 1227.53 3759.97 3066.63 1798.94 9853.07 417.46 10270.53 August 2071.38 5975.17 3516.74 3087.19 14650.48 529.87 15180.35 1733.48 4967.39 2578.75 2750.56 12030.18 523.38 12553.55 September 1649.40 5459.73 5066.81 3576.21 15752.15 387.75 16139.90 1448.41 4829.62 4473.28 2843.66 13594.97 373.37 13968.34 October 1959.98 6054.29 3760.28 3172.04 14946.59 564.63 15511.22 1560.43 5118.82 2790.01 2897.65 12366.91 481.58 12848.49 November 2240.69 6397.38 4043.55 3157.69 15839.31 528.94 16368.25 1786.95 5409.41 3177.38 2817.62 13191.36 471.80 13663.16 December 2076.26 6116.69 5992.45 3563.43 17748.83 468.18 18217.01 1892.87 5448.58 5491.64 2822.04 15655.13 464.60 16119.73 January 2202.48 6542.60 4569.31 3615.97 16930.36 591.36 17521.72 2062.59 5776.43 4318.44 3320.75 15478.21 525.52 16003.74 February 1868.15 6237.02 4031.53 3477.52 15614.22 493.46 16107.68 1730.05 5131.57 3586.43 2793.51 13241.56 435.77 13677.33 March 2084.89 6356.23 6527.61 3600.95 18569.68 562.61 19132.29 1850.90 5797.19 5922.58 3241.63 16812.30 622.68 17434.98 April 2226.79 6996.41 4859.96 4203.09 18286.25 581.63 18867.88 1883.00 5785.71 3817.44 3206.51 14692.66 634.18 15326.84 May 2189.69 6849.45 5084.77 3784.07 17907.98 543.76 18451.74 1997.50 5898.56 4183.57 3345.55 15425.18 573.96 15999.15 June 2023.52 7748.07 14103.30 3060.86 26935.75 483.61 27419.36 1895.48 5925.60 9348.78 2167.75 19337.61 758.08 20095.69 July-June 24502.12 76539.56 64548.26 40817.31 206407.25 7041.07 213448.32 21069.19 63848.85 52754.93 34006.17 171679.14 6282.39 177961.53 (+20.23) (+12.08) (+19.94) (+10.39) (+11.34) (+10.42) 2018-19 P 2017-18 July 1941.13 5735.76 3802.38 2233.07 13712.34 1908.89 5806.52 2991.95 2518.29 13225.65 1305.28 14530.93 August 1817.61 6092.66 3851.75 3186.21 14948.23 2071.38 5975.17 3516.74 3087.19 14650.48 529.87 15180.35 September 2132.86 6569.29 5568.95 3257.94 17529.04 1649.40 5459.73 5066.81 3576.21 15752.15 387.75 16139.90 October 2049.61 7185.09 3858.29 3134.18 16227.17 1959.98 6054.29 3760.28 3172.04 14946.59 564.63 15511.22 November 1928.36 7304.12 4384.92 3654.49 17271.89 2240.69 6397.38 4043.55 3157.69 15839.31 528.94 16368.25 December 1764.21 6809.70 6708.44 3050.63 18332.98 2076.26 6116.69 5992.45 3563.43 17748.83 468.18 18217.01 January 2285.26 7617.65 5161.68 3714.26 18778.85 2202.48 6542.60 4569.31 3615.97 16930.36 591.36 17521.72 February 1808.41 6921.23 4891.62 3106.50 16727.76 1868.15 6237.02 4031.53 3477.52 15614.22 493.46 16107.68 March July-March 2038.34 17765.79 7195.04 61430.54 7289.01 45517.04 3369.24 28706.52 19891.63 153419.89 (+7.08) 2084.89 18062.12 6356.23 54945.63 6527.61 40500.23 3600.95 29769.29 18569.68 143277.27 (+17.23) 562.61 5432.07 (+25.85) 19132.29 148709.34 (+17.52) Source: National Board of Revenue and Office of the Controller General of Accounts. P=Provisional, R=Revised; *=include supplementary duties & travel tax. --- = Not Available. Note:- Figures in brackets indicate percentage changes over the corresponding period of the preceding year. Non-NBR tax revenue includes narcotics & liquor duty, taxes on vehicles, land revenue and stamp duty(non judicial). Total tax revenue collection (NBR & non-NBR) in FY18 stood at Taka 213448.32 crore which was higher by Taka 35486.79 crore or 19.94 percent against the collection of Taka 177961.53 crore in FY17. NBR tax revenue collection during July-March, 2018-19 stood at Taka 153419.89 crore which was higher by Taka 10142.62 crore or 7.08 percent against the collection of Taka 143277.27 crore during July-March, 2017-18. Target for NBR tax revenue collection is Taka 2,96,201.00 crore for FY19 Growth of total tax revenue +55 NBR Cumulative growth:NBR Tax Revenue Non-NBR Total 38 33 +25 28 +10 23 Percentage +40 -5 -20 2017-18 2018-19 17.23 18 13 8 -35 7.08 3 Mar Feb Jan Dec Nov Oct Sep Jul 21 Aug -2 Jun.18 May.18 Apr.18 Mar. 18 Feb. 18 Jan. 18 Dec. 17 Nov. 17 Oct. 17 Sep. 17 -50 Aug. 17 Percentage 1/
  24. Monetary Policy Department Major Economic Indicators : Monthly Update b) Sale and repayment of National Savings Certificates (NSC) (Taka in crore) FY Sale Re payme nt (Principal) (1) 2011-12 (2) 18955.35 (3) 18476.33 2012-13 23326.77 22553.93 772.84 2013-14 24309.59 12602.29 11707.30 76397.48 2014-15 42659.79 13927.13 28732.66 105130.14 2015-16 53712.45 20023.85 33688.60 138818.74 (Taka in crore) Months Sale Re payme nt (Principal) Ne t sale Outstanding at Outstanding at the e nd pe riod Ne t sale 4=(2-3) 479.02 (5) 63917.34 64690.18 the e nd of the ye ar Re payme nt (Principal) Sale 2017-18 Ne t sale Outstanding at the e nd pe riod 2016-17 July 7352.11 2298.57 5053.54 196289.76 4932.05 1433.68 3498.37 142317.11 August 6464.94 2489.90 3975.04 200264.79 6327.61 2030.40 4297.21 146614.32 September 5767.80 2102.05 3665.75 203930.54 5390.50 1535.99 3854.50 150468.82 October 7378.03 2757.70 4620.33 208550.87 6104.91 1838.31 4266.61 154735.43 November 6700.36 2842.94 3857.42 212408.29 6106.62 1703.76 4402.85 159138.28 December 5505.52 2854.06 2651.46 215059.76 4881.59 1727.57 3154.02 162292.30 January 8060.49 2920.76 5139.73 220199.49 7357.29 1936.70 5420.59 167712.89 February 6602.40 2445.89 4156.51 224356.00 6030.93 1642.51 4388.42 172101.31 March 6293.27 2704.04 3589.23 227945.22 6556.47 2190.62 4365.85 176467.16 April 6537.54 3183.36 3354.18 231299.40 6831.48 2380.22 4451.26 180918.42 May 6432.32 3131.75 3300.57 234599.97 7118.05 2248.70 4869.35 185787.78 June 5689.91 2523.36 3166.55 237766.52 7497.24 2048.80 5448.44 191236.22 78784.68 32254.38 46530.30 237766.52 75134.74 22717.26 52417.48 191236.22 (+4.86) (+41.98) (-11.23) (+24.33) (+39.88) (+13.45) (+55.59) (+37.76) July-June 2018-19 2017-18 July 8229.61 3193.87 5035.74 242802.26 7352.11 2298.57 5053.54 196289.76 August 6732.89 2711.39 4021.51 246823.76 6464.94 2489.90 3975.04 200264.79 September 7293.59 2938.82 4354.77 251178.54 5767.80 2102.05 3665.75 203930.54 October 7744.41 3327.70 4416.71 255595.25 7378.03 2757.70 4620.33 208550.87 November 7059.16 3225.97 3833.20 259428.45 6700.36 2842.94 3857.42 212408.29 December 6479.63 3148.02 3331.61 262760.06 5505.52 2854.06 2651.46 215059.76 January 9726.64 3723.79 6002.85 268762.91 8060.49 2920.76 5139.73 220199.49 February 7746.31 3140.21 4606.10 273369.02 6602.40 2445.89 4156.51 224356.00 March 7960.46 3829.75 4130.71 277499.73 6293.27 2704.04 3589.23 227945.22 68972.72 29239.51 39733.21 277499.73 60124.91 23415.91 36709.00 227945.22 (+14.72) (+24.87) (+8.24) (+21.74) (+11.99) (+45.99) (-2.50) (+29.17) July-March Target for net sale of NSC is Taka 26,197.00 crore for FY 2018-19. Source:- Department of National Savings The sale of National Savings Certificates (NSC) Cumulative growth of net sale of NSC during July-March, 2018-19 stood at Taka 68972.72 crore which was 14.72 percent higher than the sale 45 of NSC during July-March, 2017-18. The net July-March, 2018-19 was Taka 39733.21 crore against Taka 36709.00 crore of July-March, 201718.Outstanding borrowing of the government 2017-18 35 Percent borrowing of the government through NSC during 2018-19 25 15 8.24 5 -2.50 through NSC as of end March, 2019 stood at Taka as of end March, 2018 22 Mar Feb Jan Dec Nov Oct Sep crore or 21.74 percent against Taka 227945.22 crore Aug -5 Jul 277499.73 crore, which is higher by Taka 49554.50
  25. Monetary Policy Department Major Economic Indicators : Monthly Update c) Government budget financing (Taka in crore) Net borrowing of Net non-bank the Govt. from borrowing of Total domestic the banking the Govt. from financing system 1/ the public 2/ Year 1 2 3 2010-2011 19175.90 3012.93 22188.83 2011-2012 18784.20 2241.10 2012-2013 17873.00 7724.86 2013-2014 6627.80 2014-2015 Total financing Net foreign Total financing financing 3/ 4=(2+3) as % of GDP@ at current market price 5 6=(4+5) 7 7470.44 29659.27 3.24 21025.30 9714.35 30739.65 25597.86 15080.19 40678.05 15351.72 21979.52 14224.04 -7370.70 34723.57 27352.87 2015-2016 4326.60 34166.55 2016-2017 -17464.80 2017-2018 Outstanding Domestic debt (end period) Outstanding domestic debt as % of GDP@ at current market priceR 8 9 139012.67 15.18 2.91 160037.97 15.17 3.39 185635.83 15.48 36203.56 2.69 207615.35 15.45 17067.58 44420.45 2.93 234968.22 15.50 38493.15 20213.70 58706.85 3.39 273461.37 15.78 53685.30 36220.50 20863.05 57083.55 2.89 309681.87 15.67 -1110.10 47492.60 46382.50 41157.80 87540.30 3.89 356064.37 15.82 July-March, 2017-18 -21255.10 37710.61 16455.51 25603.54 42059.06 1.87 326137.38 14.49 July-March, 2018-19P -2407.10 41959.99 39552.89 30128.33 69681.21 2.75 395617.26 15.60 R Source: Bangladesh Bank & Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics. P=Provisional ; R=Revised, 1/: Excludes interest. 2/: Includes treasury bills & bonds held by the non-bank financial institutions through secondary auctions, T.bills & bonds have been taken at face value. @ 3/: Total foreign aid disbursement less amortization payment, : nominal GDP (base 2005-06=100) has been used. Government’s budget financing from domestic sources stood higher at Taka 395.53 billion during July-March, 2018-19 as compared to that of Taka 164.56 billion of July-March, 2017-18. Net foreign financing stood higher at Taka 301.28 billion in the period under review. The total budget financing of the government during July-March, 2018-19 stood significantly higher at Taka 696.81 billion against Taka 420.59 billion of July-March, 2017-18. Government’s net repayment to the banking system stood at Taka 24.07 billion while net borrowing from the non-banking sources stood Taka 419.60 billion during JulyMarch, 2018-19 as compared to that of July-March, 2017-18. The total budget financing during July-March, 2018-19 stood at 2.75 percent of projected GDP against 4.70 percent as envisaged in the national budget for FY19. 18. Food situations Year Production Target Actual Domestic Production (Gross) Net Domestic Food grain Imports Govt. & food aid Private Production* 22.90 357.25 354.66 358.81 348.20 350.88 356.56 313.38 10.50 315.79 320.90 4.72 8.56 12.40 14.18 21.37 FY2014-15 360.50 360.58 324.52 3.34 FY2015-16 364.24 360.03 324.03 FY2016-17 365.91 351.16 316.04 FY2017-18 372.97 373.76 T 373.12 FY2018-19 ---- Total Public Domestic (In lakh metric ton) Foodgrain Distribution Stock Public Procurement FY2011-12 FY2012-13 FY2013-14 R Public (End June) 18.90 29.93 14.26 14.06 14.34 20.95 20.87 22.20 12.48 14.97 11.53 49.40 52.74 16.76 18.38 12.86 3.34 42.06 45.40 12.32 20.64 8.56 3.93 54.30 58.23 16.14 22.42 3.79 336.38 13.91 83.83 97.74 15.35 21.17 13.15 ---- 11.00 ---- ---- 17.25 28.77 ---- July-March, 2018-19 P July-March, 2017-18 ---44.28 362.78 2. Imports (Rice & Wheat) 3. Procurement (Rice) 4. Distribution (Rice & Wheat) 5. Food Stock (Rice & Wheat) 16.45 18.23 14.44 9.78 12.43 14.10 Particulars 1. Production (Aus, Aman & Boro) 82.47 Source : Bangladesh Food Situation Report, FPMU, Ministry of Food. Note : T = Target, P = Provisional, R = Revised, ---- = Data not avaiable. B = Boro. ** Only for Aus= and Aman *= After 10% deduction for seed, feed, waste etc. ** Data of Aus production only Total production target of food grains during FY 2018-19 has been set at 373.12 lakh metric tons. The actual production of food grains during FY 2017-18 stood 373.76 lakh metric tons. Import of rice and wheat were significantly lower at 44.28 lakh metric tons during July-March, 2018-19 compared to 82.47 lakh metric tons during July-March, 2017-18. Procurement of rice during July-March, 2018-19 was higher than that of July-March, 2017-18. Public food distribution of rice and wheat was higher at 18.23 lakh metric tons during July-March, 2018-19 compared to 12.43 lakh metric tons during July-March, 2017-18. However, stock of food grains was only marginally higher at 14.44 lakh metric tons at the end of March, 2019 as compared to the end of March, 2018. 23
  26. Monetary Policy Department Major Economic Indicators : Monthly Update APPENDIX Break-up of fresh opening, settlement and outstanding of import LCs (US$ in million ) July-March, 2018-19 p Sectors / Commodities Changes during July-March, 2018-19 over July-March, 2017-18 July-March, 2017-18 Fresh Outstanding Fresh Outstanding Fresh Outstanding Settlement Settlement Settlement opening of LCs at the opening of LCs at the opening of LCs at the of LCs of LCs of LCs LCs end period LCs end period LCs end period 4570.25 4192.57 2428.83 6764.21 6017.66 2600.99 -32.43% -30.33% -6.62% Rice and wheat 1136.13 1066.07 782.94 3223.38 2472.10 972.90 -64.75% -56.88% -19.53% Sugar and salt 488.14 410.04 355.52 692.02 817.91 425.01 -29.46% -49.87% -16.35% Milk food 279.33 235.78 177.56 249.42 212.29 134.25 11.99% 11.07% 32.26% Edible oil (refined) 548.73 571.60 288.03 646.72 679.71 312.73 -15.15% -15.91% -7.90% All kinds of fruits 323.90 283.65 81.74 309.59 265.68 74.58 4.62% 6.76% 9.61% Pulses 329.24 233.66 189.83 331.26 301.87 196.91 -0.61% -22.60% -3.60% Onion 174.75 171.81 29.19 284.76 269.11 26.51 -38.63% -36.16% 10.13% Spices 120.52 126.90 30.85 123.58 116.42 32.68 -2.48% 9.00% -5.58% Second hand clothings 0.34 1.83 1.60 2.15 2.14 0.76 -84.08% -14.17% 111.51% Drugs and medicines(finished) 48.31 44.25 24.60 62.98 58.43 23.47 -23.29% -24.27% 4.82% 1120.86 1046.98 2428.83 838.35 822.00 401.20 33.70% 27.37% 505.38% 5122.95 4158.35 2768.15 3717.15 2982.59 2196.48 37.82% 39.42% 26.03% Coal 436.80 406.91 85.48 319.86 251.52 85.85 36.56% 61.78% -0.44% Cement 56.99 49.38 33.43 14.75 12.42 14.80 286.25% 297.56% 125.80% Clinker & limestone 1619.30 1101.89 841.97 612.63 443.68 400.47 164.32% 148.35% 110.25% B. P. sheet 317.46 304.13 141.16 353.31 239.97 189.77 -10.15% 26.74% -25.61% 2.19 5.61 1.16 8.75 13.54 5.81 -74.92% -58.57% -80.05% Scrap Vessels 936.91 833.89 559.53 756.68 579.93 455.58 23.82% 43.79% 22.82% Iron and steel scrap 834.61 631.94 577.14 666.37 528.56 464.94 25.25% 19.56% 24.13% Non-ferrous metal 119.78 114.50 70.91 151.35 138.04 113.03 -20.85% -17.05% -37.26% Paper and paper board 339.93 333.23 154.96 357.61 270.14 219.11 -4.94% 23.35% -29.28% Others 458.98 376.86 2768.15 475.84 504.77 247.12 -3.54% -25.34% 1020.17% 14950.14 14732.14 7310.37 7492.83 0.76% 9.74% -2.44% Edible oil (Crude) & oil seeds 1057.17 894.62 699.00 986.68 753.42 640.71 7.14% 18.74% 9.10% Textile fabrics (B/B & others) 5707.51 5380.79 2601.42 5741.29 5154.41 2722.86 -0.59% 4.39% -4.46% Pharmaceutical raw materials 596.06 540.56 210.16 506.25 468.54 181.53 17.74% 15.37% 15.77% Raw cotton 2110.52 2165.11 1107.67 2172.63 2007.35 1175.04 -2.86% 7.86% -5.73% Cotton yarn 1201.24 1157.17 635.09 1231.23 1050.54 693.33 -2.44% 10.15% -8.40% Copra 12.02 4.36 6.09 3.15 2.87 4.85 282.04% 51.93% 25.64% Synthetic fibre & yarn 770.57 666.60 426.78 679.76 608.44 341.19 13.36% 9.56% 25.09% Chemicals & chem. products 3495.03 3922.95 7310.37 3516.22 3379.46 1733.32 -0.60% 16.08% 321.76% A. Consumer goods Others B. Intermediate goods Tin plate C. Industrial raw materials 14837.22 13425.03 (continued on page-25) 24
  27. Monetary Policy Department Major Economic Indicators : Monthly Update APPENDIX Break-up of fresh opening, settlement and outstanding of import LCs (US$ in million ) July-March, 2018-19 p Sectors / Commodities July-March, 2017-18 Fresh Outstanding Fresh Outstanding Settlement Settlement opening of LCs at the opening of LCs at the of LCs of LCs LCs end period LCs end period Changes during July-March, 2018-19 over July-March, 2017-18 Fresh Outstanding Settlement of opening of LCs at the LCs LCs end period 3753.44 3612.68 6361.14 5188.68 3989.90 7055.78 -27.66% -9.45% -9.85% Textile machinery 421.34 508.90 616.33 685.45 649.32 736.47 -38.53% -21.63% -16.31% Leather / tannery 6.72 12.11 8.82 12.96 6.54 15.29 -48.14% 85.08% -42.29% Jute industry 4.44 12.22 4.34 11.74 14.03 7.77 -62.21% -12.90% -44.11% Garment industry 564.32 592.43 657.13 614.03 563.58 764.41 -8.10% 5.12% -14.03% Pharmaceutical industry 91.42 86.98 117.13 109.95 82.53 104.35 -16.86% 5.40% 12.24% Packing industry 14.97 12.67 13.98 14.64 12.95 10.55 2.30% -2.19% 32.57% 2650.24 2387.38 4943.41 3739.92 2660.94 5416.96 -29.14% -10.28% -8.74% 5109.77 4130.53 3590.78 4600.89 3765.53 2623.08 11.06% 9.69% 36.89% Other machineries 784.58 629.44 494.58 660.34 613.50 328.22 18.82% 2.60% 50.68% Marine diesel engine 18.45 21.55 43.02 21.15 17.74 45.62 -12.75% 21.48% -5.70% Computer & its accessories 270.51 254.76 123.89 301.59 298.41 127.04 -10.31% -14.63% -2.48% Motor vehicle & motorcycle parts 443.80 434.08 84.57 147.31 124.24 63.23 201.27% 249.39% 33.74% Bicycle parts 57.80 56.06 31.75 66.14 62.51 30.93 -12.62% -10.31% 2.68% Other iron and steel products 329.10 320.60 185.40 373.00 343.36 199.79 -11.77% -6.63% -7.20% Motor vehicles 870.24 841.38 541.36 1097.17 854.49 517.48 -20.68% -1.53% 4.61% Other electronics components 353.91 223.05 285.03 279.39 192.85 174.11 26.67% 15.66% 63.71% Tractors & power tiller 51.91 42.74 33.12 73.71 67.01 32.08 -29.58% -36.21% 3.26% 1929.46 1306.86 1768.06 1581.09 1191.42 1104.58 22.03% 9.69% 60.07% 2808.60 2809.61 1055.70 2653.20 2239.99 810.16 5.86% 25.43% 30.31% Crude 394.57 386.35 360.68 478.02 319.90 193.73 -17.46% 20.77% 86.18% Refined 2414.03 2423.26 695.01 2175.18 1920.09 616.44 10.98% 26.21% 12.75% G. Others 7951.09 7581.86 15884.09 18195.99 5987.03 15366.04 -56.30% 26.64% 3.37% Commercial sector 3175.58 2701.14 2925.22 14093.00 2304.76 13428.84 -77.47% 17.20% -78.22% Industrial sector 4775.50 4880.72 12958.87 4102.98 3682.27 1937.19 16.39% 32.55% 568.95% --- 775.94 9910.66 --- --- --- --- --- --- 44266.23 41217.74 39399.06 55957.34 38407.72 38145.37 -20.89% 7.32% 3.29% 2956.33 3167.17 -0.08% 6.25% -6.66% D. Capital machinery Other industry E. Machinery for misc. inds. Others F. Petroleum & petro.prodts. Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant Total of which back to back 6438.13 6133.65 6443.29 Source: Foreign Exchange Operations Department(FEOD), Bangladesh Bank. 25 5772.79